Is the 2021 Lions Tour Doomed?

[Bada-Bing!]

The current Vaccination rates will have the UK at herd immunity by June//late July. I see zero reason why 10,000+ fans from the UK could not go. Have an immunization card & passport = minimal restrictions around the country and attendance to games.

Here in the US we were hovering around 1.5 million doses per day and that's approaching 3 million now. Manufacturers are ramping up and distribution/logistics will only continue to improve.

I'll go out on a limb and say it's 75+% occupancy once the games are played in August. Yes I know South Africa won't even be close to herd immunity, but the 10,000-50,000 British & Lions fans all will be.

Bringing back the SA variant is the big reason. What with AZ not proven to protect against mild to moderate symptoms of that strain. And a booster not due until Autumn at the earliest.


As an aside Will all of the players and staff be vaccinated with Pfizer before they go? Is there sufficient data that the Pfizer protects against serious illness/hospitalization from SA variant.

 

[ChicagoKid]

Bringing back the SA variant is the big reason. What with AZ not proven to protect against mild to moderate symptoms of that strain. And a booster not due until Autumn at the earliest.


As an aside Will all of the players and staff be vaccinated with Pfizer before they go? Is there sufficient data that the Pfizer protects against serious illness/hospitalization from SA variant.

I'm confident American Biopharma will figure it out. They created the mRNA vaccine in two weeks. Get the booster going and let us have a packed tour.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

The current Vaccination rates will have the UK at herd immunity by June//late July.

That's not true - all adults will have been offered the jab by end of July, so add 12 weeks to that to get the 2nd jab as well.
Apparently herd immunity requires 70-85% of people to be vaccinated - think our expected vaccination uptake is 77%? So will require everyone who is willing/able to get the vaccine to have had it

I'm confident American Biopharma will figure it out. They created the mRNA vaccine in two weeks.

BioNTech is a German company, isn't it?

I think you're being overly optimistic about it, tbh.
The UK Government have said it's too early to plan for foreign travel as part of the current lockdown roadmap.
That roadmap currently goes up to 22nd June, so it's going to be way after that - and even then you have to imagine that it'll only be to specific places (with low rates of disease and/or high rates of vaccine) whereas SA are predicted to be in a 3rd wave and won't hit their strides with vaccinations until late July when the J&J shots start arriving en masse

 

[TRF_heineken]

It's interesting.

The vaccination plan in the UK is to have all the residents get 2 jabs. While the Vaccines in SA is a once-off. And as local manufacturers are getting the green light to start the mass production, which is also around 95% effective against the SA-strain, there is all likelihood that we can reach a massive amount of people by June. The government has already announced the procedure to be followed to register for the vaccine.

Add to that the plan of private medical aid schemes also planning to obtain vaccines independantly for their clients, also boosts the plan to get to herd immunity faster.

And our numbers of affected people are dropping significantly the past couple of weeks. Add to that the plan to have a temporary lockdown over Easter, could also assist in getting the numbers down faster, and preventing big social events from becoming super-spreaders.

In the Limpopo province where I lived, there was only 11 new cases in the past 2 weeks, and we were one of the hotspots in January and February.

Cricket South Africa has also started discussions with the government in relation to having fans back in the stands, in some sort of capacity.

I think the benefit we have in SA is that our Stadiums are very big, and a stadium like Soccer City, which hosted the 2010 Fifa Final can at full capacity have 96 000 people, if we have to limit the amount of people in the stands to 40% there will still be 38 400 people in the stands....

The plan however as it stands is that the tour will go on, without fans. But hopefully if we don't become reckless again, and can prevent the third wave from happening, there is a good chance of having the tour with fans in the stands...

 

[TRF_Olyy]

The vaccination plan in the UK is to have all the residents get 2 jabs. While the Vaccines in SA is a once-off.

I think that's because South Africa are banking on the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, which is a single injection, rather than AZ/Moderna/Pfizer which are all two injections
The article I read yesterday said the J&J vaccine won't be ready for full roll out until late June/July and that current capacity is only 40k a week (as they had 500k vials set aside for trials, which have been earmarked for SA as it's more effective against the SA variant than the others)

 

[TRF_heineken]

I think that's because South Africa are banking on the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, which is a single injection, rather than AZ/Moderna/Pfizer which are all two injections
The article I read yesterday said the J&J vaccine won't be ready for full roll out until late June/July and that current capacity is only 40k a week (as they had 500k vials set aside for trials, which have been earmarked for SA as it's more effective against the SA variant than the others)

Aspen has been contracted by J&J to produce the vaccine, which would boost the amount of vaccines being made. There are also reports that Aspen is in the process of acquiring another factory to assist in production of the vaccine.

We also managed to order 20million doses of the Pfizer vaccine, although we don't know yet when that will arrive in SA.

Even without vaccination of the majority of the public, if the stats keep on going down for infections, we could reach a point of no new infections by mid-April, which could lead us to being in the same category as New Zealand was last year when they had fans in the stands during Super Rugby Aetoaroa.

the plan is to have 40 million people over the age of 18 be vaccinated to do the herd-immunity, but the plan is more so to rid the country of the virus.

 

[TommiG88]

I wouldn't be surprised to see local fans in the stadiums come July. But I suspect no lions fans will be allowed to fly over.

 

[munstermuffin]

Big rumour alot of players on fringes are considering pulling out on Lions side as the lockdown makes it an unusual tour with no social aspects as such in terms of visiting Safaris etc. And Irish lads confirmed they must do 12 days hotel quarantine upon return.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Big rumour alot of players on fringes are considering pulling out on Lions side as the lockdown makes it an unusual tour with no social aspects as such in terms of visiting Safaris etc. And Irish lads confirmed they must do 12 days hotel quarantine upon return.

I'd love if Henshaw didn't go, only getting back to his best in the world form now after the last tour wrecked him.

 

[Welsh Exile]

Big rumour alot of players on fringes are considering pulling out on Lions side as the lockdown makes it an unusual tour with no social aspects as such in terms of visiting Safaris etc. And Irish lads confirmed they must do 12 days hotel quarantine upon return.

Sorry, I'm new here, I take it this is a joke?

 

[Jakedood]

Sorry, I'm new here, I take it this is a joke?

Most likely just rumour. I'd imagine they'll be able to do some things, like a safari with just the camp and a driver? You'd think it might be alright, but time wil tell again
Hopefully no one pulls out, honestly one of my favourite things is watching the best players play in the British Isles together

 

[Welsh Exile]

Most likely just rumour. I'd imagine they'll be able to do some things, like a safari with just the camp and a driver? You'd think it might be alright, but time wil tell again
Hopefully no one pulls out, honestly one of my favourite things is watching the best players play in the British Isles together

It's just the idea that players would pull out of a Lions Tour coz they can't go on safari made me laugh out loud but then I was like, oh, maybe it's not a joke.

The narrative a few months ago was that the overwhelming majority of players wanted this to go ahead no matter what, even if it meant in the UK so the idea that there's some that are more interested in social activities than the games itself doesn't tally up with me. But I guess it could make sense I suppose if it's just a few fringe players but still, if true, mad to me.

I get it that there might be some players (especially Irish lads) who aren't that fussed about the lions in general and don't see it as the pinnacle of rugby as most others see it but to want to bin it off coz there will be less of a craic seems crazy.

 

[munstermuffin]

It's just the idea that players would pull out of a Lions Tour coz they can't go on safari made me laugh out loud but then I was like, oh, maybe it's not a joke.

The narrative a few months ago was that the overwhelming majority of players wanted this to go ahead no matter what, even if it meant in the UK so the idea that there's some that are more interested in social activities than the games itself doesn't tally up with me. But I guess it could make sense I suppose if it's just a few fringe players but still, if true, mad to me.

I get it that there might be some players (especially Irish lads) who aren't that fussed about the lions in general and don't see it as the pinnacle of rugby as most others see it but to want to bin it off coz there will be less of a craic seems crazy.

Sorry. Should rephrase it. I used the Safari as an example. But effectively the schedule now is more all on camp have pool, training pitches etc and everything but the external casual side of tour will not be there. I'm sure (as IRFU issued to provinces in 6 Nations and Autumn) insurance issues etc play a part too and if guys catch Covid and it becomes serious due to I suppose non-essential ways then it could be messy in worst case scenarios.
The tour may require lads to be fully locked down in camp. So it can be tough mentally on them.
For the Irish guys the Government is hesitant to change legislation and unless South Africa comes off the Red List here the Irish guys may touch down and have too isolate in a hotel in Dublin for 12 Days.

So that prolongs the tour and being away from loved ones. Also the timing means some lads may loose preseason and miss European games or do they used quarantine time as their 2 weeks holidays.

Also no Irish fans will be going it seems as tour operators here are talking refunds etc now too. Noting the Olympics is later and much bigger and even they struggle to give guarantees to athletes.

 

[Groundhog]

Yeah there's no way any Irish fans will be/should be travelling to South Africa. I am very highly doubtful we will get to the warmup in Edinburgh even.

I can see why a guy brought along for midweeks would give it a miss. Quarantine period (if Irish for sure), closed camp, likely reduced game fee if any and injury risk after a pretty weird and tiring season in the NH. Still expect the vast majority of guys in line for Test 23s will go because it may well be their only chance between age, injury and form even if it is a slightly diluted experience for them personally.

 

[munstermuffin]

It interesting to see that Lions agreed to play in South Africa as Australia was never viable. And they had asked the British Government to include write downs.
Ireland became a doubt from start due to our poor vaccination process. But the key part of that was a guarantee from the British government that they would underwrite any losses if circumstances changed, and you couldn't get your minimum of 25% of the capacity. And on the contract it states "The basics is the tour agreement [which] says that South Africa have to host a tour, that they are the hosts of the tour and Lions have to turn up." and now the financial burden and issues switch to SARU as they have to host and are responsible for alot of the risks and losses now.

Donal Lenihan explained it very well. And would know better than most.

I should add in he had all the figures and stated it was impossible for UK Government to give those assurances as other sports would want similar and also the UK Taxpayer has already given huge sums. More was highlighting all avenues were looked at.

 

[TRF_heineken]

Sorry. Should rephrase it. I used the Safari as an example. But effectively the schedule now is more all on camp have pool, training pitches etc and everything but the external casual side of tour will not be there. I'm sure (as IRFU issued to provinces in 6 Nations and Autumn) insurance issues etc play a part too and if guys catch Covid and it becomes serious due to I suppose non-essential ways then it could be messy in worst case scenarios.
The tour may require lads to be fully locked down in camp. So it can be tough mentally on them.
For the Irish guys the Government is hesitant to change legislation and unless South Africa comes off the Red List here the Irish guys may touch down and have too isolate in a hotel in Dublin for 12 Days.

So that prolongs the tour and being away from loved ones. Also the timing means some lads may loose preseason and miss European games or do they used quarantine time as their 2 weeks holidays.

Also no Irish fans will be going it seems as tour operators here are talking refunds etc now too. Noting the Olympics is later and much bigger and even they struggle to give guarantees to athletes.

Why would they not be allowed to go on Safari (as per your example). If they are a group, and remain within that group, they will be able to travel to any region within the country should we remain on level-1 when they are in town. Our tourism destinations are open to anyone if they are within the country's borders.

Nothing is preventing anyone from the touring squad not to have a good time, bars and restaurants are open, game parks, museums, etc. are all open. As long as they wear their mask, no problem.

Also, there is news that China is now sending at least 5 million doses of the Vaccine to SA, so that will also aid in getting more people vaccinated sooner.

It all depends on how their isolation bubble will be managed. But again, I think it's a bit early to tell, let's wait and see closer to time...

 

[munstermuffin]

Why would they not be allowed to go on Safari (as per your example). If they are a group, and remain within that group, they will be able to travel to any region within the country should we remain on level-1 when they are in town. Our tourism destinations are open to anyone if they are within the country's borders.

Nothing is preventing anyone from the touring squad not to have a good time, bars and restaurants are open, game parks, museums, etc. are all open. As long as they wear their mask, no problem.

Also, there is news that China is now sending at least 5 million doses of the Vaccine to SA, so that will also aid in getting more people vaccinated sooner.

It all depends on how their isolation bubble will be managed. But again, I think it's a bit early to tell, let's wait and see closer to time...

Because of the issues when they return home. And the insurance issues behind it?
The issue isn't within South Africa it is what they could bring home etc.

And the fact Donal Lenihan has came out mentioning these points shows it has been discussed at board level. The mentality is that SA are not as strict with their restrictions and that is the cause for worry.
These are just facts. look at Rainbow Cup issues and it is the same. The South African teams tried to see if they could base themselves in Dubai and that was rejected too.

 

[TRF_heineken]

Because of the issues when they return home. And the insurance issues behind it?
The issue isn't within South Africa it is what they could bring home etc.

And the fact Donal Lenihan has came out mentioning these points shows it has been discussed at board level. The mentality is that SA are not as strict with their restrictions and that is the cause for worry.
These are just facts. look at Rainbow Cup issues and it is the same. The South African teams tried to see if they could base themselves in Dubai and that was rejected too.

I don't think we need to be more strict than we are now. I think we are managing this rather well. Especially as a third world country. The numbers are dropping considerably, especially in the Metropolitan areas, and there is really no more "hotspots" or areas of concern.

While France had to go into their second strict lockdown now as the pandemic is growing again in that country.

I can understand that insurance companies don't want to underwrite the tour, from an insurance perspective. But I'm sure there might be an insurance company looking to make a name for itself that could jump to the opportunity and take that risk...

Our guys just want to play. We are the only country in the top 10 that didn't play a single international game in 2020.

 

[munstermuffin]

I don't think we need to be more strict than we are now. I think we are managing this rather well. Especially as a third world country. The numbers are dropping considerably, especially in the Metropolitan areas, and there is really no more "hotspots" or areas of concern.

While France had to go into their second strict lockdown now as the pandemic is growing again in that country.

I can understand that insurance companies don't want to underwrite the tour, from an insurance perspective. But I'm sure there might be an insurance company looking to make a name for itself that could jump to the opportunity and take that risk...

Our guys just want to play. We are the only country in the top 10 that didn't play a single international game in 2020.

Maybe not but the British and Irish Governments make their own calls. And Ireland have doubled down saying no exemptions.
Insurance is issue of if a player or staff got covid in SA and had to be hospitalised. Who covers the bills etc. Not too many who will take risk as if it goes in to years of complications worst case and the accept full liability then they would loose.

Like I will put it this way. If you are a player who has young family. You've spent practically 2 months in a bubble away from family for 6 Nations. And you are told you can tour Lions and Lockdown again for 2-3 months away from family. Then return and quarantine in hotel for 2 weeks. Then nearly straight back to season.

What'd you do? Not every player wants to go through those strains.

 

[TRF_heineken]

Maybe not but the British and Irish Governments make their own calls. And Ireland have doubled down saying no exemptions.
Insurance is issue of if a player or staff got covid in SA and had to be hospitalised. Who covers the bills etc. Not too many who will take risk as if it goes in to years of complications worst case and the accept full liability then they would loose.

Like I will put it this way. If you are a player who has young family. You've spent practically 2 months in a bubble away from family for 6 Nations. And you are told you can tour Lions and Lockdown again for 2-3 months away from family. Then return and quarantine in hotel for 2 weeks. Then nearly straight back to season.

What'd you do? Not every player wants to go through those strains.

No they wouldn't. I agree that would take a lot of strain on the family.

Then again, SA Super Rugby teams used to travel for 2 months or so to Australasia in the past, so it is manageable, and then again tour with the Springboks later in the year during the RC.

But yeah, the Bubbles, I hear are a bit tougher, as the restricted movement takes a bigger toll on the guys, and the limited movement causes more negativity.

But I wonder if that would be the case if there could be some kind of deal with a place like Sun City? The Resort can't be fully booked at the moment as it is without it's regular international tourists not coming to SA.

It has 4 hotels, as well as free standing units like flats. Why not offer this to the touring squad? Then the whole squad will be able to move a bit more freely, and Sun City has it's own game reserve with lots of animals to view. Plus, it's not that far from Johannesburg....