Poll - Who will win the Rugby World Cup 2019 ?

[RedruthRFC]

I think NZ will win, as previously stated......but to add to that, I do not think SA will make the final. I think they will exit in the semi's. I think NZ will be unbeaten.

Not meaning to single you out / pick on your opinion, just interested to hear our logic - who are you putting as favourites to beat SA in the knock out stages? Given that you're predicting a pool loss to NZ, SA will be going through the bottom half of the draw, meaning that they're highly likely to face Ireland, the winner of which is will (if the world rankings are to be believed ) face Wales. I'd have no problem saying that 2018 Ireland would be favourites to go through this bottom half, but since they've stopped bulldozing anything in front of them, I would put SA as favourites for this match and to beat whoever they end up against in the semi-final. Wales look a bit lightweight up front, I could see SA seriously outmuscling them. Of the other possibles, you'd have to give SA the edge of the other southern hemisphere sides given the RC results. Unless the planets align big style for France, SA would be favourites against them. Maybe England would start as favourites, but probably not given that to end up in that position, they would have had to lose to Argentina or France.

 

[TRF_heineken]

Not meaning to single you out / pick on your opinion, just interested to hear our logic - who are you putting as favourites to beat SA in the knock out stages? Given that you're predicting a pool loss to NZ, SA will be going through the bottom half of the draw, meaning that they're highly likely to face Ireland, the winner of which is will (if the world rankings are to be believed ) face Wales. I'd have no problem saying that 2018 Ireland would be favourites to go through this bottom half, but since they've stopped bulldozing anything in front of them, I would put SA as favourites for this match and to beat whoever they end up against in the semi-final. Wales look a bit lightweight up front, I could see SA seriously outmuscling them. Of the other possibles, you'd have to give SA the edge of the other southern hemisphere sides given the RC results. Unless the planets align big style for France, SA would be favourites against them. Maybe England would start as favourites, but probably not given that to end up in that position, they would have had to lose to Argentina or France.

I get his logic though. It all hinges on our performance against the AB's, and to a latter extent Italy.

Should we lose against the AB's, and end up 2nd in our pool, we'll be a little bit undercooked by the time we face Ireland. Our last pool match is against Canada, and we finish our match with them 3 days prior to the last pool matches. We'll have 10 day to prepare for our QF, and should it be Ireland, we could run into a complacency problem.

But with that said, we have a pretty good record against NH teams at world cups, and tend to come out on top no matter how poor we are. I think of the last 2 games we had against Wales in the World Cup. The last being the QF in 2015 when it took a wonder pass from Fourie Du Preez to put Duane Vermeulen in at the corner, and in 2011 it was Du Preez who gave a great offload to Francois Hougaard to score under the posts.

We don't have Du Preez around this time to save our bacon though. So the hope is there that a new X-factor player steps up and gets us through the really tough situations.

 

[Nudger]

I haven't voted mainly as I cant decide France are my long shots
But NZ SA England and Wales probably in that order

 

[BPM]

I am absolutely not a Guardian reader, but I just read an article saying that there is some concern around typhoons disrupting the pool games: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/sep/05/rugby-world-cup-pool-stage-cyclone-japan

It goes on to say that any games that are cancelled are recorded as 0-0 draws. Imagine he uproar if a tier 1 team is knocked out because of this!!

 

[TRF_Olyy]

All Blacks getting all 0-0 draws would make my year, as unfair as it would be

 

[BPM]

Against Namibia and Canada ...

 

[Scotty]

Against Namibia and Canada ...

I know how is it fair that the 2 form favourites only have 1 game they need to worry about in their pool. First game put out a 1st team and win or lose and the pool position is decided. Then rest players as needed. Prob only need 2nd and 3rd choice from then on till QFs.

 

[BPM]

TBH, I’m actually happier being in a tougher pool with a likely QF against Australia or Wales than if our place had been swapped with Ireland and we had an easier group but a mare of a QF against NZ or SA.

That’s not meant to be disrespectful to Australia or Wales (both would be dangerous opponents if that’s how the groups turn out) it’s just a reflection of our relative level of success against those sides in the recent past (although obviously not in the last World Cup)!!

 

[Brigantine]

I am absolutely not a Guardian reader, but I just read an article saying that there is some concern around typhoons disrupting the pool games: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/sep/05/rugby-world-cup-pool-stage-cyclone-japan

It goes on to say that any games that are cancelled are recorded as 0-0 draws. Imagine he uproar if a tier 1 team is knocked out because of this!!

And what's the protocol if an earthquake strikes in the middle of a match?

Oh no. This sort of thing could break my statistical model
(the same way Romania and Spain getting disqualified from qualifying already broke it...)

EDIT:

For pool stage fixtures, if the match begins but is abandoned before half‑time, two points will also be awarded to both teams although points scored in the match, and bonus points, will still count. The result will stand if a match is abandoned at or after half-time and the same cut-off point applies in knockout matches.

So that means you can have a 50-0 draw with New Zealand getting 3 table points and Namibia 2, if an earthquake hits in the 40th minute.

 

[Scotty]

I am absolutely not a Guardian reader, but I just read an article saying that there is some concern around typhoons disrupting the pool games: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/sep/05/rugby-world-cup-pool-stage-cyclone-japan

It goes on to say that any games that are cancelled are recorded as 0-0 draws. Imagine he uproar if a tier 1 team is knocked out because of this!!

Imagine NZ vs SA game in round one this happened.
Would mean them 3 easy games are all about bonus points, tries and PD to decide the group. Doubtful it would change the top 2 but still would make it interesting to see who comes out on top. (hope it doesnt happen obv).

 

[TheOvalBall]

And so the majority won !!!

 

[Umaga's Witness]

I just voted South Africa.

But actually not as a joke, I had them in the other thread just obviously missed this thread.

certainly is interesting that people here got it right. There is a thing about the average of a crowd being a good predictor, and this is probably the best crowd from which to get that average. I might start polls in the future and use them to place bets

 

[TommiG88]

I voted England, but at the time I remember being torn with SA. Head said SA, heart said England.

A good man follows his heart.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Yeah, I chose SA before the tournament as well. However, when NZ won their first game and then demolished Ireland, I thought for sure NZ would play SA again in the final and win. England outplaying the ABs was a pleasant surprise. Still fair play to SA, who prevailed in the end.