Rugby World Cup 2019 Qualifying & Repechage Tournament

[Brigantine]

Updating for the Cook Islands (56) and Senegal (51) being eliminated:

• 17 - 17 countries that had guaranteed spaces in the final 23 including:
  • 12 - 12 Automatic Qualifiers direct to the RWC (WRR 1-9, 11-12, 14)
    
  • 15 - USA, Fiji and Tonga have secured direct qualification (WRR 17, 10, 13)
    
  • 16 - Canada (23) can all still qualify directly, and has the Repechage Tournament as a worst-case scenario
  • 17 - Samoa (16) can no longer qualify directly, but still has 2 repechage chances - the H&A play-off vs Europe 2, and then failing that, the Repechage Tournament
• 18 - Uruguay (18) earned the spot for the Americas. They may qualify directly, but the Repechage Tournament is their worst-case scenario
• 29 - 11 more countries from Europe (5) and Africa (6) are still able to qualify directly, as well as having the repechage process as Plan B.
  • 23 - the 5 European countries have the H&A repechage play-off vs Samoa as Plan B-1, and then the Repechage Tournament as Plan B-2. (WRR 15, 19-20, 22, 27)
    
  • 29 - for the 6 African countries, Plan B is only the Repechage Tournament. - Namibia (21), Kenya (25), Uganda (35), Tunisia (40), Morocco (42), Zimbabwe (46)
• 35 - 6 further countries can not qualify directly, but have one chance to qualify for the final 23.
  • 31 - Portugal (26) and Czechia (32) can qualify via the H&A repechage play-off vs Samoa (Plan A-1), or the Repechage Tournament (Plan A-2)
  • 35 - 3 Asian countries and Tahiti are able to qualify for the Repechage Tournament, with no other path to the RWC. - Hong Kong (24), Korea (31), Malaysia (47), Tahiti (88)

• 55 countries eliminated

That table isn't going to change again until November (Portugal vs Czechia) and then Jan/Feb 2018 (Canada vs Uruguay and then Rugby Europe Championship).

In terms of rankings, the remaining countries include all of the top 27 ranked sides, and then 31, 32, 35, 40, 42, and then at the back Zimbabwe (46), Malaysia (47) and way behind, Tahiti (88).

Zimbabwe were in WRR 40, but then got smashed by Uganda yesterday, dropping 6 places and slipping below Morocco and Tunisia. They are now ranked 6th/6 out of the 2018 Africa Gold Cup teams. (Compared to 3rd/6 just 8 weeks ago before the 2017 Gold Cup).

 

[Brigantine]

Apparently Kenya (25) host Hong Kong (24) tonight for a test.
This match has no bearing on RWC qualifying... but these teams are both favourites to be in the Repechage Tournament next year, so this match is likely to be part of the discussion later.

As things stand per WR rankings, Kenya is the favourite by 59%-41% thanks to home advantage.

A win by Kenya (by any margin) would see them overtake their opponents in the rankings, but nothing more.
A win by Hong Kong (by any margin) would see them leapfrog Canada and Germany to 22nd, and see Kenya slide below Portugal and Belgium to 27th.

Will probably be a very open game and high scores all around... Though I say that without knowing much at all about Hong Kong rugby.

 

[Brigantine]

And it was a draw... and not particularly high scoring. No matter - apparently it's a 2-match series, so there's a re-match this weekend.

 

[Brigantine]

And Hong Kong takes it. So they've cracked the 60 ranking's point barrier and are up to 22nd in the world. I still don't have any more info than the final score & teams.

Unfortunately that means Germany is back down to 23rd

 

[Welshdragon2000]

Who do people actually WANT to get through the repechage (I know the teams aren't decided yet but hypothetically)? For me I'd love to see Germany or Spain do it. It'd be great for European rugby if one of those sides get to the RWC. Thoughts people?

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

A team from the REC for me too. They have effectively been penalised by Georgia getting an automatic qualification spot (whereas in my opinion the tournament should be rewarded). Spain, Germany and Russia (with their clubs) are all arguably improving.

Or Uruguay if they lose out in the playoff to Canada, because even though their crowds are poor their union seems to be doing everything right in difficult circumstances and they have a history in the sport.

The wildcard option would be Korea, because of their potential huge market and the way it might help development of Japan if they had a local rival. But they are a massive outside shot and probably won't even get past Hong Kong (assuming Korea haven't already been eliminated).

 

[Brigantine]

Given that the Repechage Tournament winner will be in the same pool as Italy and presumably Namibia (Africa 1), it would be neat if it was a rival of one of those countries.

Spain, Germany, Romania, Samoa would all be good rivals for Italy. Or Portugal if they can improve.

A good match vs Namibia could be any other team that has never won a RWC match (as long as they're moderately competitive).
Kenya would be epic, (or if Kenya is Africa 1 and Namibia wins Repechage) but also Spain, Germany, Portugal, Uruguay, Russia, Hong Kong, Belgium or even Korea or Czechia *IF* they improve a lot in the next 2 years.

Korea can still qualify, but they have zero chance of facing Japan, so I can't imagine a "local rival" factor. The advantage is their fans wouldn't have far to travel. The disadvantage is, I doubt they have any fans.

So I will also say Spain or Germany, as the two countries that would likely give us interesting matches against Italy AND Namibia.

It won't be as good if Spain/Germany are in with Ireland/Scotland/Japan/Romania. Dear Samoa, please win the Play-Off!

 

[Welshdragon2000]

Just imagine if Spain/Germany beat Italy at the World Cup and ultimately finished in 3rd ahead of them in the group.

 

[Brigantine]

And qualify automatically for Ireland 2023 in their place... RWC Qualifier: Russia vs Italy in Novosibirsk.

But Italy will still be 3rd in group. It's just the mere fact they would have to focus on defending it. High stakes!

 

[Welshdragon2000]

What will actually happen if Italy finish lower than 3rd? I expect WR would find some way of allowing Italy automatic qualification (e.g. all six nations teams qualify automatically)

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

What will actually happen if Italy finish lower than 3rd? I expect WR would find some way of allowing Italy automatic qualification (e.g. all six nations teams qualify automatically)

The wild suggestion is qualification would be fiddled to include Italy. Or maybe they'd be made co-hosts with France and Italy's group would be played at home! I suspect that RWC expansion would mysteriously be on the table if Italy finished 4th in their group.

But it is not going to happen. Italy finally showed signs of life in June and by the time of the RWC comes around I expect them to be a mighty 11th in the world!

The Boks and All Blacks should be looking over their shoulders! Oh yes.

 

[Brigantine]

I doubt anything would be changed to give Italy automatic qualification, but they would get the same treatment Fiji, Tonga, Samoa, USA, Canada got this time around. Multiple paths to qualification whereby it's impossible to fail, unless you literally lose to Kenya/Namibia, Hong Kong, Uruguay...

One thing I can see changing in that scenario, is Europe being given an extra half-spot at probably Africa's expense. So Europe 9 qualifies directly, and Namibia has some sort of repechage including Uruguay and maybe Europe 10. So the *loser* of Italy vs *4th* placed REC team goes to repechage.

I'd still call that fair, as long as Italy at least finishes ahead of Namibia in their RWC pool.


OTOH, it is only fair to give the same amount of speculation to Italy over-performing, and facing Japan in the QF.

 

[Brigantine]

This weekend, either Portugal (25) or Czechia (31) will be eliminated. On paper Czechia only has an 18% chance here, Portugal 82%.

As things still stand:

• 17 - 17 countries that had guaranteed spaces in the final 23 including:
  • 12 - 12 Automatic Qualifiers direct to the RWC (WRR 1-8, 10-13)
    
  • 15 - USA, Fiji and Tonga have secured direct qualification (WRR 17, 9, 14)
    
  • 16 - Canada (23) can still qualify directly, and has the Repechage Tournament as a worst-case scenario
  • 17 - Samoa (16) can no longer qualify directly, but still has 2 repechage chances - the H&A play-off vs Europe 2, and then failing that, the Repechage Tournament
• 18 - Uruguay (19) earned the spot for the Americas. They may qualify directly, but the Repechage Tournament is their worst-case scenario
• 29 - 11 more countries from Europe (5) and Africa (6) are still able to qualify directly, as well as having the repechage process as a Plan B.
  • 23 - the 5 European countries have the H&A repechage play-off vs Samoa (B1), and then the Repechage Tournament (B2). (WRR 15, 18, 20, 22, 26)
    
  • 29 - for the 6 African countries, Plan B is only the Repechage Tournament. - Namibia (21), Kenya (29), Uganda (35), Tunisia (41), Morocco (44), Zimbabwe (46)
• 35 - 6 further countries can not qualify directly, but have one chance to qualify for the final 23.
  • 31 - Portugal (25) and Czechia (31) can qualify via the H&A repechage play-off vs Samoa (Plan A1), or the Repechage Tournament (A2)
  • 35 - 3 Asian countries and Tahiti are only able to qualify for the Repechage Tournament. - Hong Kong (24), Korea (33), Malaysia (47), Tahiti (88)

• 55 countries eliminated

The next qualifying fixture after this weekend is in Jan/Feb 2018 (Canada vs Uruguay and then Rugby Europe Championship).

 

[Brigantine]

And Czechia is eliminated! The game finished Portugal 45-12 Czechia apparently. So to update the bottom of the table:

• 34 - 5 further countries can not qualify directly, but have one chance to qualify for the final 23.
  • 30 - Portugal (25) will challenge for the Europe 2 spot, which offers a H&A play-off vs Samoa (Plan A1), and the Repechage Tournament (A2)
  • 34 - 3 Asian countries and Tahiti are only able to qualify for the Repechage Tournament. - Hong Kong (24), Korea (33), Malaysia (47), Tahiti (88)

• 56 countries eliminated

The next qualifying fixtures are:

- Canada (21) vs Uruguay (18) on Jan 27 & the reverse on Feb 3. The winner goes in Pool D with Australia (3) / Wales (7) / Georgia (12) / Fiji (10), the loser to repechage.

- The Rugby Europe Championship (Feb 10 - Mar 18 alongside the 6 Nations). This will be the return leg of a H&A round robin. 3 teams to be eliminated here.

The winner goes in Pool A with Japan (11) / Ireland (4) / Scotland (6) / [Winner of Samoa Play-off], and the runner-up challenges for Europe 2 (see Portugal above).​

All eyes will be on Spain (20) - 2nd on the table - defending their 4 point lead over 3rd place Russia (19) one week, then possibly threatening their (currently) 2 point deficit vs front-runner Romania (14) in Madrid the next. ​

Germany (24) trail Russia by only 1 point, and are a wild-card after beating Romania on the first leg - but their lucky draw will be reversed now.
Finally Belgium (28) are also involved, but they are a further 6 points behind Germany and expectations for them aren't high.
​

- The Asia Rugby Championship. Dates are TBD, but Apr-Jun ish. 2 teams to be eliminated here.

- TBD in Jun-Aug: Play-off for Europe 2 (loser eliminated), H&A play-off Tahiti vs Asia 1 (loser eliminated) and the African Gold Cup (4 teams eliminated).

Also the H&A play-off Samoa vs Europe 2 (winner to Pool A, loser to repechage) although both teams are already in the final 23.​

- Finally the Repechage Tournament during the next November window.

So what will surprise us?

So after this current qualifying match drought for the next couple of months, there will be 7 months of non-stop qualifying action!
However, the most exciting and consequential matches are all in the first 4 weekends.

By Feb 18 things might look very predictable. With Pool D complete, and easy paths for Romania and Samoa to Pool A (as Europe 1 and Play-off Winner) - with Africa and the Repechage Tournament only promising moderate suspense (with Namibia (22) and a strong looking Canada/Uruguay as favourites to join Pool B, but Kenya (30) and Spain with outside chances).
(Surprise surprise, the same 20 teams as always)

Or...

One thing that could happen is Spain under-performs. It would throw the Europe 2 spot wide open with Spain, Russia, Germany and Portugal possibly all in the running - all with a realistic chance of winning the Repechage Tournament (especially if Uruguay show weakness vs Canada).

But the biggest surprise I'll be watching out for in that time, is whether Spain can keep Romania in their sights. The prospect of Romania becoming Europe 2 will be an interesting one - it would:
- Raise the standard of the Repechage Tournament (guarantee that either Samoa or Romania will be competing),
- Change the dynamic in Pool A (Having a lower-ranked team would make it less problematic for Japan and Romania/Samoa to rest players), and
- Keep Italy and Namibia in suspense - especially if Uruguay makes an impression vs Canada or even wins. (Will they have Samoa/Romania in their pool?)

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Samoa seem quite a bit better with their new coach despite their loss yesterday. I'd make them heavy favourites to qualify before the repechage.

Germany and Spain needed to compete much better against the North Americans this weekend to make me think they had a chance of RWC qualification.

Interesting that Canada and Uruguay both appear to be hitting some form and becoming more free scoring. 50+ points scored in Namibia is crazy (I need to see highlights of that). The loser of their playoff would be my heavy favourite for the repechage as things stand. Russia is the only one that I think can match their quality but they are so painfully inconsistent.

 

[Brigantine]

Canada vs Uruguay is on right now. 20 minutes in.

[Update: Penalty try & YC! this qualifier might go down to the wire]

 

[amz]

Full match here, good one to watch

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Highlights.



Uruguay looking odds on for a deserved RWC qualification in my opinion. Very impressed by their back three and halfbacks. Obviously major question marks over their pack against a stronger side but I could see them competing at home against the US and Puma XV.

They really are improving, which I like as they seem to be the poster child for World Rugby in terms of Tier 2/3 development.

Canada were so dominant but then strangely wilted when they had a man advantage. I was expecting to have better fitness than Uruguay given they have more players with Pro clubs, but it didn't seem that way.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

World rugby streaming the second leg of Uruguay vs Canada. Canada making an excellent fist of this with 30mins played, so it should go down to the wire.

 

[die_mole]

uruguay looks like they have a great crowd there