RWC 2023 Predictions

[Brigantine]

I think Georgia will beat Wales. That is my prediction.

For me, the question is whether Wales/Fiji can get bonus point wins vs Georgia. It will be tough. But here you go - I'll throw in a scenario where Georgia does beat Wales...

Case A: not likely - Georgia beats Wales. Tie-breaking criteria is head-to-head match winner

- 16 Fiji (vs Wales ⁺2, vs Australia ⁺4, bye, vs Georgia ⁺5, vs Portugal ⁺5)
- 16 Australia (vs Georgia ⁺5, vs Fiji ⁺1, vs Wales ⁺5, vs Portugal ⁺5, bye)
- 11 Georgia (vs Australia 0, bye, vs Portugal ⁺5, vs Fiji ⁺2, vs Wales ⁺4)
- 11 Wales (vs Fiji ⁺5, vs Portugal ⁺5, vs Australia 0, bye, vs Georgia ⁺1)
- 0 Portugal

Case B: plausible - With 3 teams tied, the tie-breaking criteria is points difference in all pool matches

- 15 Australia (vs Georgia ⁺5, vs Fiji ⁺1, vs Wales ⁺4, vs Portugal ⁺5, bye)
- 15 Fiji (vs Wales ⁺2, vs Australia ⁺4, bye, vs Georgia ⁺4, vs Portugal ⁺5)
- 15 Wales (vs Fiji ⁺5, vs Portugal ⁺5, vs Australia 0, bye, vs Georgia ⁺5)
- 6 Georgia (vs Australia 0, bye, vs Portugal ⁺5, vs Fiji ⁺1, vs Wales 0)
- 0 Portugal

Case C: plausible - Wales don't beat Australia, but a LBP and a performance against Georgia is enough to qualify 1st

- 16 Wales (vs Fiji ⁺5, vs Portugal ⁺5, vs Australia ⁺1, bye, vs Georgia ⁺5)
- 15/16 Fiji (vs Wales ⁺2, vs Australia ⁺4, bye, vs Georgia ⁺4/⁺5, vs Portugal ⁺5)
- 15 Australia (vs Georgia ⁺5, vs Fiji ⁺1, vs Wales ⁺4, vs Portugal ⁺5, bye)
- 6 Georgia (vs Australia 0, bye, vs Portugal ⁺5, vs Fiji ⁺1, vs Wales 0)
- 0 Portugal

Case D: not likely - Wales actually win, and Fiji collapse

- 20 Wales (vs Fiji ⁺5, vs Portugal ⁺5, vs Australia ⁺5, bye, vs Georgia ⁺5)
- 12 Georgia (vs Australia 0, bye, vs Portugal ⁺5, vs Fiji ⁺5, vs Wales ⁺2)
- 11/12 Fiji (vs Wales ⁺2, vs Australia ⁺4, bye, vs Georgia ⁺1 TBP, vs Portugal ⁺4/⁺5)
- 11 Australia (vs Georgia ⁺5, vs Fiji ⁺1, vs Wales 0, vs Portugal ⁺5, bye)
- 0 Portugal

 

[Dean Cooperfield-West]

Sunday will be a great way of seeing whether the Welsh justifying every loss or narrow win as "it was out second team so should be expected and out first team is much better" is valid or not

 

[Brigantine]

If Scotland were on the other side of the draw, they'd be a shoo-in for bronze. As it stands they're a shoo-in for 3rd in group

What the rankings say:

QF 1: Fiji vs England
-------------------------------------SF 1: Fiji vs Ireland
QF 2: Ireland vs New Zealand
------------------------------------------------------------------------Final: Ireland vs France
------------------------------------------------------------------------Bronze: Fiji vs Argentina
QF 3: Argentina vs Australia
-------------------------------------SF 2: Argentina vs France
QF 4: France vs South Africa


What I say:
(hedging my bets on 3 games)

QF 1: Australia vs Argentina
-------------------------------------SF 1: Argentina vs Ireland(/France)
QF 2: Ireland vs France ?
------------------------------------------------------------------------Final: Ireland(/France) vs South Africa (Wild card: Scotland)
------------------------------------------------------------------------Bronze: ? England vs Argentina ------- (Wild card: Fiji via QF 1)
QF 3: England vs Fiji(/Wales)
-------------------------------------SF 2: England vs South Africa
QF 4: New Zealand vs South Africa

[EDIT: I'll add, I think Australia/Fiji/Wales end up with 3 wins each, and placement in group comes down to bonus points. Unless e.g. Fiji slips up vs Georgia]

Prediction updated after 22 pool games: (changes underlined, = no changes)

What the rankings say:

QF 1: Fiji Wales vs Argentina England
-------------------------------------SF 1: Fiji Wales vs Ireland
QF 2: Ireland vs New Zealand
------------------------------------------------------------------------Final: Ireland vs France
------------------------------------------------------------------------Bronze: Fiji Wales vs England Argentina
QF 3: Argentina England vs Fiji Australia
-------------------------------------SF 2: Argentina England vs France
QF 4: France vs South Africa


What I say:
(hedging my bets on 3 2 games)

QF 1: Australia Wales vs Argentina
-------------------------------------SF 1: Argentina vs Ireland (/France)
QF 2: Ireland vs New Zealand France ?
------------------------------------------------------------------------Final: Ireland (/France) vs South Africa (/France) (Wild card: Australia Scotland)
------------------------------------------------------------------------Bronze: ? England vs Argentina ------------------- (Wild card: Fiji via QF 1)
QF 3: England vs Fiji (/Wales)
-------------------------------------SF 2: England vs South Africa (/France)
QF 4: New Zealand France vs South Africa ?

Australia/Fiji/Wales end up with 3 wins each, and placement in group comes down to bonus points

 

[dirty harry]

Sunday will be a great way of seeing whether the Welsh justifying every loss or narrow win as "it was out second team so should be expected and out first team is much better" is valid or not

They didnt go a way to proving that against Fiji?


I mean 40 to 65 mins they blew Fiji off the park, then dragged 4 key players off the park to rest them.

If we consider that 15 the best 15, which are starting tonight, then isnt the argument 'it wasnt our first team' in the warm up matches factually accurate? The closest I could find was 6 players starting v England, 3 the week after and 2 v SA.

More players who played against SA didnt travel, than could make a Wales 23.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

We're the bookies favourites now. So deserved but I'm naturally very uncomfortable about this.

Time to find the perfect balance of cockiness and graciousness. Don't know I have it in me

 

[OllyM97]

All this Irish arrogance and hubris is going to blow up in their face when they lose to the ABs. That QF has got NZ settling a score written all over it. Honestly think the ABs will be licking their lips at the match-up, they'll get up for this. There's nothing like a NZ team when they've got a chip on the shoulder.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

All this Irish arrogance and hubris

Where's this, then?
If anything Bok fans (on social media) have ramped up since the loss

 

[OllyM97]

Where's this, then?
If anything Bok fans (on social media) have ramped up since the loss

Yes, and they'll get sorted out by France. All I heard from both sets of fans after that game was how good the final would be between the two teams. They've not got there yet.

 

[Brigantine]

We're the bookies favourites now. So deserved but I'm naturally very uncomfortable about this.

Time to find the perfect balance of cockiness and graciousness. Don't know I have it in me

Save the graciousness for after you win...

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Well, someone's got to win it and we've close to as good a shot as any so why not back your team?

 

[die_mole]

Irish . . . Starters resting the week off before a knockout match . . . Trap game . . .

 

[corny]

Yes, and they'll get sorted out by France. All I heard from both sets of fans after that game was how good the final would be between the two teams. They've not got there yet.

What's wrong with that? It was an absorbing game and it would be great final between the teams... if they get there.

FWIW I think you're attacking Irish supporters because they have confidence in their team. They've no right to be beat Scotland or NZ but they've every right to be confident that they can.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

What's wrong with that? It was an absorbing game and it would be great final between the teams... if they get there.

FWIW I think you're attacking Irish supporters because they have confidence in their team. They've no right to be beat Scotland or NZ but they've every right to be confident that they can.

Plenty of this to be honest.

A lot of fans want us to be underdogs and don't like it when we're winning. 16 wins in a row, France are the only team in the world that we haven't won our last two meetings against, playing great rugby and lucky with injuries so far. Dead right to be confident that we're one of the best two teams in the world and should be looking to make a final.

 

[ncurd]

I think Final confidence is something you can have after the QF (for all 4 sides not just Ireland). As noted Ireland (and SA) haven't beaten France at home this world cup cycle (and people think France will implode at home).
Against New Zealand both sides have about a 50% record so again I wouldn't be counting chickens.

I'd be happy to bet that one of SA or Ireland will lose their QF (I hope its SA, all NH SF's please).

 

[Dean Cooperfield-West]

Oh how much I would love to see an England-Wales final

 

[ncurd]

Oh how much I would love to see an England-Wales final

We don't need a civil war.

 

[OldSchoolRugga]

Imagine if Ireland throw the game against Scotland to kick South Africa out. That would be.....weird.

 

[Becca]

Imagine if Ireland throw the game against Scotland to kick South Africa out. That would be.....weird.

My Mum would

 

[Lé Ddanno]

We don't need a civil war.

.....Civil?

 

[Saintjay]

.....Civil?

I think he meant drunk middle aged people in daffodil hats vs middle aged people in wine coloured chinos.