[RWC2023] Wales vs Australia (24/09/2023)

[Dean Cooperfield-West]

A rare occasion where I'll be in red (for both my love of the underdogs in Fiji and hatred of Eddie Jones).

Give yourselves a chance and leave Biggar on for the full 80

 

[Seeker]

I've got Wales in this one. Very close, 5 points or less.

 

[Scotty]

So what are the possible outcomes?
Wales win and Aus out in pool stages,
Aus win? Who is second if they all win the other games.

 

[IT157]

I'm rooting for Australia!

If England don't win the World Cup, then I want Eddie Jones to win it as head coach

 

[Dean Cooperfield-West]

So what are the possible outcomes?
Wales win and Aus out in pool stages,
Aus win? Who is second if they all win the other games.

1. Wales lose with no BP to either teams:

Equal points assuming Fiji BP win last two and Wales & Australia BP win their last match. They will need to BP beat Georgia and hope Australia lose to Portugal or Fiji lose, or not win, one of their final games with BP. If Australia lose to Portugal, it's Wales (1) and Fiji (2). If Fiji BP win last two and Australia don't lose to Portugal, Fiji (1) and Australia (2). If Fiji only BP win one more game, it's all on points difference.

2. Wales lose with at least one BP and Australia no BP:

Wales BP beat Georgia and qualify. Wales (1) and Fiji (2) assuming Fiji BP win their final two matches.

3. Wales lose with 2 BP for Wales and one for Australia:

BP beat Georgia and Wales (1) and Fiji (2) assuming Fiji BP win their final two matches.

4. Wales lose with 1 BP for Wales and one for Australia:

Equal points assuming Fiji BP win last two and Wales & Australia BP win their last match. Result is same as scenario 1.

5. Wales lose with no BP and one for Australia:

Goodbye Wales unless they BP beat Georgia and Fiji doesn't BP win one of their matches or Australia loses to Portugal.

6. Wales win:

Wales (1) and Fiji (2) unless Fiji lose again

That's all the scenarios I can think of. I wouldn't want to rank them in order of possibility.

 

[OllyM97]

I just want the best result for Fiji. A Welsh win would be preferable (ouch!) but a low scoring Aussie win wouldn’t be a disaster either. For some reason my gut instinct says the Wallabies will find a way to nick this - even though logically Wales should be favourites. Less than 5 either way.

 

[Dean Cooperfield-West]

I wonder if there's any back channel talks going on between Wales and Fiji to share analysis given if Fiji help Wales win, Fiji is pretty much guaranteed to qualify

 

[Becca]

A rare occasion where I'll be in red (for both my love of the underdogs in Fiji and hatred of Eddie Jones).

Give yourselves a chance and leave Biggar on for the full 80

I agree with you and I bet I hate Eddie Jones more than you do

 

[dullonien]

No idea how to call this. Australia were very poor vs Fiji and they're missing a couple of their biggest players.

Wales were equally poor v Portugal, and obviously only scraped past Fiji. There was a 20-30 minute period in the middle of that Fiji game where Wlaes looked composed, clinical and efficient though, so I'm hoping that with the first team back we can perform far better than v Portugal.

History tells me that games between Wales and Aus tend to be close run affairs with Aus finding a way to come out on top all to offten, so I think this one will go down to the wire again!

Wales to win though (he says nervously).

 

[Welsh Exile]

I just have a bad feeling about this one. Form and players I’d say we just edge it (though 20% of our pack is almost completely useless) but I just have this feeling that Australia are due a performance and with their backs against the wall it could be very hard for us.

Australia have never failed to get out the group in their history and think that could be a big motivator (but hopefully the pressure they’ll feel will work in our favour)

If we can win the battle upfront then we should be ok but they still have 2 world class wings and arguably the best 12 on the planet when he’s on form in Kerevi so we can’t let them generate quick ball to get out to those talented backs.

If we lose we have to make sure we get a losing bonus point (2 ideally) and history suggests we should at least get 1 but obviously we need the win. I don't think you’ll see any surprises in the backs that’ll be the same back line that started Fiji and the pack will probably be the same too with the exception that he might drop Wainwright at 6 but I don’t think he will. Changes on the bench I suspect will ne Henry Thomas coming in to back up Francis and Lake (who missed the Fiji match day squad) to come in on the bench for Elias. Reffel hasn’t trained much by the sound of it but I think he’ll keep his bench spot. Domachowski didn’t do himself any favours with that stupid yellow he got against Fiji so wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him drop out of the match day 23 and replaced with Smith.

 

[dirty harry]

Based on the Fiji performances it's really hard to see where Aus are going to win this.

Fiji pressured their scrum, Slipper looked uncomfortable on the tight, and the back row looked beat by the 50th minute.add to this the frailties of McDermott, Gordon, the inexperience in the back 3 and the one dimensional attempt of a blitz defence, Aus are in for a long day at the office.

Given all this, my prediction is Australia wo win by 8 points.

 

[Welsh Exile]

Based on the Fiji performances it's really hard to see where Aus are going to win this.

Fiji pressured their scrum, Slipper looked uncomfortable on the tight, and the back row looked beat by the 50th minute.add to this the frailties of McDermott, Gordon, the inexperience in the back 3 and the one dimensional attempt of a blitz defence, Aus are in for a long day at the office.

Given all this, my prediction is Australia wo win by 8 points.

After leading by 30 points for 70mins.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

This one's for all my English fans

 

[Becca]

This one's for all my English fans

Just Eddie doing Eddie things

 

[Summer Rose]

Really hoping Wales win this. I have no particular reason for this preference.

 

[Which Tyler]

Really hoping Wales win this. I have particular reason for this preference.

 

[TommiG88]

Hoping for an Aus win

 

[dirty harry]

Can someone please explain to me where Aus are going to get the upper hand. Aside from the lineouts I just dont know

 

[ncurd]

Can someone please explain to me where Aus are going to get the upper hand. Aside from the lineouts I just dont know

Both teams are **** I'm sure wales will give them opportunities. Its a question of if Aus can capitalise.

 

[General Melchett]

Can't stand Gatland or Jones but I guess it would be good if Wales reached the semi final so that they go into the 6N with a heightened sense of delusion about how much they've improved under Gats.