Scottish independence referendum

[lynam1104]

I don't think they will as the economics don't make enough sense. I'm no expert and haven't followed the topic too closely but from what I've read and heard from Scottish friends is along those lines.

 

[Big Ewis]

Yeah 1995 was there big chance but they very narrowly voted to stay, in 1980 they got about 40% I think which is probably about the same the Scottish indepence movement will get unless as Peat aptly pointed out there is some sort of big shift in opinion over the next few weeks.

I wouldn't expect a Quebec referendum for a very long time, I won't say never as that's just silly but it would take some sort of spark at this point.

right yeah, 1995 seems about right from what ppl told me...and yeah, never say never, especially when it comes to populist sheep/herd mentality and people feel represented and have some form of a scapegoat to point fingers at. "They're trying to drown our Québecness with their English-speaking globalization..." that sort of thing, which of course is definitely true but they use this as motives and the masses follow.
There will always, always, always be talk of separation. We're simply living in an era where the rest of Canada just won't invade Québec militarily to spread their influence and call it a day like nations used to, that means Québec will remain Québec for the rest of its foreseeable existence, which means guys will be Québécois: speak French, have their own culture, distinct from their neighbors (Can, US), which means the subject will remain a hot and popular one.
I'd easily predict continuity in the roller coaster pattern-curve we've observed thus far. Business is crap atm there, many sources of mine confirm that at least (not just the youth, older guys too) so they're on the downlow right now coz they really NEED to stay...but eventually things will perhaps pick up, and the talks will be fervently up in the atmosphere, and they'll come close to voting for it again, then a down time again...repeat, repeat. Maybe they'll eventually separate, I don't believe the "the longer they stay together, the less likely it is to happen" is a valid argument, things change, parameters and interests fluctuate, and there isn't an invisible glue that consolidates two states together the more time passes.

 

[iINDOMINUSxx]

i was about to post this but thanks Draggs for the thread im sure everyone would want to read my opinion on this.

i suppose yes it is good to see how we would be like as an independent country but over time i think would we actually do any better with or without the help from Britain, but i dont think this is something i should take a chance with i'd rather stay with what im use too then change, i'm no politician but i have cousins in england and i would rather just go down there just to see them then go through security and need a passport every time i go down. i'm most likely voting no for this. but in scotland the people who are voting yes seems to be the Glaswegians, working class people or mid aged people while the rest are voting no, i still have no idea what will happen but what ever happens i hope good comes out off it no matter what.

 

[Draggs]

Yep.

Faslane is deliberately out of the way - it's not ideal for anything other than a nuke arsenal.

True, but the fact that it is an existing base pretty much guarantees it would be used by Scotland's military, despite the location. Likewise, they would use Lossiemouth for their Air Force. The interesting question is how much they are entitled to, if any, from the current military. They anticipate up to 16 Typhoons and half a dozen C-130s, both currently operated by the RAF. Lockheed Martin would sell them, no doubt.

 

[ratsapprentice]

16 Typhoons and a dozen C-130s?!

What the **** for? That's practically one for every citizen.

 

[Draggs]

Half a dozen C-130s. No heavy transports, but I don't see the need for them.

 

[Groundhog]

I reckon it might have had a chance if someone other than the SNP was running the show. The seem to rely on people's idealism above actual solutions to what would be very real problems should Scotland gain independence. In the end I can see most people, even those who like the idea of independence voting no because it's far easier in the short, and very possibly the long run.
It's really not my business to say how a country should vote though.

 

[Draggs]

I reckon it might have had a chance if someone other than the SNP was running the show. The seem to rely on people's idealism above actual solutions to what would be very real problems should Scotland gain independence. In the end I can see most people, even those who like the idea of independence voting no because it's far easier in the short, and very possibly the long run.
It's really not my business to say how a country should vote though.

That's what I feel too. It's too much of the Salmond show. He has the bravado and all, but I don't think he has the skills or mind needed to run a country. Cameron has indicated they would offer more power to Holyrood if they say, will be interesting to see if he follows through, and to what extent, also if the Welsh Assembly gets anything from this.

 

[iINDOMINUSxx]

That's what I feel too. It's too much of the Salmond show. He has the bravado and all, but I don't think he has the skills or mind needed to run a country. Cameron has indicated they would offer more power to Holyrood if they say, will be interesting to see if he follows through, and to what extent, also if the Welsh Assembly gets anything from this.

just to state now Alex Salmond doesn't have to be prime minister if we dont vote for him

 

[Thingimubob]

Got a feeling that if Scotland stays, it will still get more powers handed to it anyway. Could be yet another step to UK wide devolution. I know there has been calls from some corners for an English Parliament separate from Westminster, similar to Scotland and Wales, so I can definitely see that being the political future of the UK.

Either way, I'm interested to see how this vote goes, especially since Wales could see itself in this exact same position at some point in my lifetime. Probably not anytime soon (and by no means guaranteed to happen), but Welsh attitudes towards devolution have changed significantly since the first (failed) referendum of '79, so you never know!

 

[Peat]

just to state now Alex Salmond doesn't have to be prime minister if we dont vote for him

He doesn't have to, but the Yes campaign has become very much tied up with his personality. Non-SNP voices in independence have been very muted in the media.

 

[dasNdanger]

MY gut says no. I know a few people who really want independence, but they're guys I consider on the fringes, living a bit in the past and focusing on Scottish pride and all the dirty deeds England has done to them in the past, but not really considering the here and now. Of course, Ireland seems to have done all right for itself, but I just don't see Scotland as having some of the same advantages as Ireland (primarily the tourist industry - at least here in the States visiting Ireland seems far more popular than visiting Scotland).

das

 

[iINDOMINUSxx]

He doesn't have to, but the Yes campaign has become very much tied up with his personality. Non-SNP voices in independence have been very muted in the media.

that true i feel he only went to this is to get his name to the history books and thats it because i dont see what will be better if we become independent country

 

[Big Ewis]

MY gut says no. I know a few people who really want independence, but they're guys I consider on the fringes, living a bit in the past and focusing on Scottish pride and all the dirty deeds England has done to them in the past, but not really considering the here and now. Of course, Ireland seems to have done all right for itself, but I just don't see Scotland as having some of the same advantages as Ireland (primarily the tourist industry - at least here in the States visiting Ireland seems far more popular than visiting Scotland).

das

yeah, those "Irish" Americans who aren't Irish in the slightest possible measure. Good on Ireland btw, they totally benefit financially from an ideological concoction of some. My brother (been living in IRE for years) has told me of a couple of accounts where he's in a shop and hears some American suggesting how Irish he is and how close he is to his interlocutor (the Irish person he's talking to) and the latter being completely disabused about it. He tells me they HATE it in Ireland when that happens like "you're Irish are ya ?...mm, right...".

 

[Draggs]

Quite a change from a few weeks back: Telegraph

@Thingimubob, think this might interest you. New York Times

 

[Peat]

Fix your link Draggs!

MY gut says no. I know a few people who really want independence, but they're guys I consider on the fringes, living a bit in the past and focusing on Scottish pride and all the dirty deeds England has done to them in the past, but not really considering the here and now. Of course, Ireland seems to have done all right for itself, but I just don't see Scotland as having some of the same advantages as Ireland (primarily the tourist industry - at least here in the States visiting Ireland seems far more popular than visiting Scotland).

das

There's an argument that promoting Scotland as its own entity would increase its not inconsiderable tourist industry; it allows them to wave the heritage banner more and to promote themselves as themselves.

Plus, oil, aka the reason that Scotland is voting on independence while Wales is ho-humming to itself.

Plus plus, unless I'm mistaken, Ireland's gone through some dark economic days since independence. It hasn't been a barrel of laughs. Even today, the impression I get is it is still bleeding its best and brightest regularly due to poor economic circumstances. Of course, plenty of bright Scots leave Scotland too.

 

[Feicarsinn]

Fix your link Draggs!



There's an argument that promoting Scotland as its own entity would increase its not inconsiderable tourist industry; it allows them to wave the heritage banner more and to promote themselves as themselves.

Plus, oil, aka the reason that Scotland is voting on independence while Wales is ho-humming to itself.

Plus plus, unless I'm mistaken, Ireland's gone through some dark economic days since independence. It hasn't been a barrel of laughs. Even today, the impression I get is it is still bleeding its best and brightest regularly due to poor economic circumstances. Of course, plenty of bright Scots leave Scotland too.

Beats the hell out of the hundred years previous though.

The 'best annd brightest leaving' argument is overplayed. Being in my early 20's I know lots of people who have moved away from Ireland. Firstly, lots of them aren't part of this supposed super educated best and brightest class that we all hear about leaving, they're just average Joe's. Secondly, the majority of people I know haven't moved because they can't find work, but rather because they want to live abroad and do other stuff for a while and maybe not come back. That's something that'll always happen in smaller countries though, the world's a big place and people want to have a look.

In any case, we're a first world western economy, something we certainly had not been under Britain in the 19th and early 20th centuries. Church interference buggered us up for a while, but I think we're better for independence.

 

[Peat]

Beats the hell out of the hundred years previous though.

The 'best annd brightest leaving' argument is overplayed. Being in my early 20's I know lots of people who have moved away from Ireland. Firstly, lots of them aren't part of this supposed super educated best and brightest class that we all hear about leaving, they're just average Joe's. Secondly, the majority of people I know haven't moved because they can't find work, but rather because they want to live abroad and do other stuff for a while and maybe not come back. That's something that'll always happen in smaller countries though, the world's a big place and people want to have a look.

In any case, we're a first world western economy, something we certainly had not been under Britain in the 19th and early 20th centuries. Church interference buggered us up for a while, but I think we're better for independence.

I bow to your superior knowledge on the middle paragraph.

And I was by no means trying to suggest that things were bad, or that independence was a mistake; merely pointing out it hadn't all been roses if it's to be used as a comparison for what independence would mean for Scotland.

Tbh, I don't think I would make such a comparison. Ireland a hundred years ago was a very different place with a very different relationship to Britain than what Scotland have now. Ireland leaving Britain then might be best compared to an abused spouse finally finding a way to escape; Scotland leaving Britain, in comparison, is a wife putting the numbers into the spreadsheets, wondering how much value the house will accumulate in the next ten years, and whether they can still have the odd quickie post divorce.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

What do you irish guys think of the amount of sea Scotland wants to get in impedance pretty much wants all of Northern Irelands water in the north..

 

[Draggs]

Scotland should go and take back the water Iceland stole in the cod wars. First great naval conquest.

I can't help but feel the No campaign is being massively negative and fearmongering, and it is not working for them. Furthermore, whomever appointed Alastair Darling as the head needs to be forced out. All Darling managed in the second debate was "£££". Complete turn around from the first debate.