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The General RWC 2023 draw discussion thread

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Bada-Bing! said:
I can see France losing their first pool game v NZ but meeting them in the final and winning. Nerves on the first night but them to grow into the tournament because they will qualify from Pool A. It’ll be typical of the French to do it that way.
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Interesting take, I would have thought nerve-wise they are more likely to feel overly nervous in the final but not so much the first match. It doesn't matter if they lose the first match, and they'll have home support. The final on the other hand they'll be expected to win and it does matter.
 
Bruce_ma gooshvili said:
Group D - on paper this is 6th, 7th, 12th and 13th, with just 6 ranking points covering them (same gap as Scotland and England to SA). So upsets should be possible, right? Jamie Joseph is a wizard and Samoa have Leilifano and Sopoaga as their 10s (although the latter still hasn't played due to visa issues). I'm just not remotely smelling an upset here though for matches played in a French autumn rather than humid Japan or somewhere hot. Japan's supply of forwards eligible under residency is drying up/ageing and they've not really had a convincing performance that I can remember since RWC 2019. Plus Joseph has been given the bullet which cannot help his motivation.

England can suffocate these sides at the set piece and Argentina will be more fluent in the backs (and always thrash Japan). If either Tier1 gets a red card though Japan and Samoa should be good enough to make it squeaky bum time. A tragically awful draw for Chile. If they can score 2 tries in the whole tournament they will be doing well.
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History also says you have to be Tier 1 side to beat England, no Tier 2 team has ever beaten them and Italy never has either.
 
I'm fairly confident we'll beat France / Anyone if we have Sexton fit for it.

Really don't see us going 3/5 provided we don't **** everything up spectacularly.
 
die_mole said:
I’d take a fit France over a fit Ireland. Doubt either team will make it to quarterfinal full strength. Danty is probably most important player France.
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Pressure off, and I'd agree with you.
But Ireland's game is better suited to knock-out rugby than France's.

As you say though, which players aren't available will likely be a bigger factor (though I'd say Dupont is more important than Danty - but I might be biased due to being an ex-SH).
 
The Boks looked like world beaters last November and made me a believer in Nienaber. They were my favourites at that point because I thought they would improve further has they firmed up on a first choice XV. The drop off on their form in TRC (with similar massive squad rotations to last November) is a bit worrisome and if Scotland are at full strength and put in a top showing then the Boks look vulnerable in a way that the Irish do not (in the groups at least). For the first time I am thinking of Ireland as favourites (if Sexton is fit and in reasonable form), but I will refrain from creating a thread about their 'dominance'.

Due to the quirky draw I'm probably putting Pumas as joint 2nd with France (with France outright 2nd favourites if they get past the QF). I think the Pumas have a lot more giant killing potential in a SF than England, Australia or Wales do.

Boks and NZ joint 4th favourites following improved form with Schmidt and renewed uncertainty about Nienaber. Happy to at least be going into a RWC thinking there are 4 or 5 really viable contendors.

For clarity, if the draw was based on current rankings i would have the top 4 ranked teams completely locked in for the SFs, with Pumas and Scotland as a distant joint 5th.
 
At the moment I'm thinking springboks Ireland final, but this might be old school thinking. Until very recently a team would perform massively better if they had tough fixtures in recent appearances, and teams would look incredibly rusty in their first test of the season (not that this will be the case in the World Cup, it's just a good example of how teams these days are better prepared at training rather than needing time together in the paddock).

Still, in all pro rugby comps teams talk about wanting to take momentum into playoffs. But momentum against poor teams continues to prove detrimental if anything. So, for me, momentum only counts when against tough opposition.

In terms of the freshness vs momentum balance, this is something I watch closely but I think world cups are a different kettle of fish. The rule is usually a team will play its best on its second to fourth consecutive weekly game against other top opposition. But it might be more like the second game for World Cup matches, or it might be the third tough game in four to five weeks or fourth in five to six weeks that is optimal instead.

It just seems to me the boks and Ireland are perfectly placed, as compared to france and New Zealand, to win the quarterfinals (and these are their toughest games). Remember compared to the other teams New Zealand players will be at the end of their season too.

While things may get less ideal after the quarterfinal stage, they will be playing lesser opposition.

Also South Africa and irelands teams are better suited to world cups.

All that said, if the French are controlling the big screen at games, then france wins the World Cup. As simple as that. Does anyone know if this will be the case? If it is I'll be putting money in france for sure
 
die_mole said:
I’m now very confident we will see a tier 1 fail to automatically qualify for 2027. Just have to wait and see.
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I would guess that Wales is most likely followed by England and then Scotland.

I say Scotland, because although they are playing well, they have a shocking draw with Ireland and South Africa. Although possible, I think it is unlikely they will beat either of them, they then have Tonga to beat and the Pacific Islands teams are always dangerous at World Cups.
 
I also still can't see a tier1 not finishing at least third in their pool. However, Uruguay vs Italy and Tonga vs Scotland (which would be a wild upset) could be just as interesting as the mess in the other half of the draw.

I like how Fiji and Samoa are playing pretty conservative. Its not a style I enjoy as a neutral, but its a style that has more chance of holding up in pressure situations and tight games. England's seemingly meteoric fall (why do people say meteoric rise, it defies gravity?) shakes up the entire bottom half of the draw.

If England come out looking this rubbish against the Pumas (instead of the slightly less crap performances against Wales (the win) and Ireland) then Samoa and Japan might rest up against the Pumas and both target England.

Similarly, Australia and Wales probably now have to go full strength against Fiji following their performances against France and England.

Basically, I have quite a bit more interest in the pool stage after the last 24hrs has taken me by surprise. But a lack of confidence in the Georgian and Japanese set piece does not have me predicting an earthquake.
 
If I had to put my house on it I’d still back Wales and Australia to qualify. The Fiji game is a coin flip really so anything can happen but I’d back us to win if I had to pick.
 
Prior to the warm ups I wanted to give Borthwick the benefit of the doubt. He’s had that and has been found wanting. It’s truly incredible how bad we’ve become.

We were rank bad at the end of the Eddie era and it felt like the only way was up, so failing to improve anything would have been disappointing. To have made us even worse is just criminal. Any patience I had is well and truly gone.

We’ve just missed another opportunity to rectify mistakes (like bringing in an alternative for Billy) and we’re just hearing the usual crap excuses. Honestly, if I were Mercer, Murley or even Dombrandt, I’d be pretty glad I’d been left out of what looks like it’ll be a car crash of a RWC.
 
Bruce_ma gooshvili said:
I also still can't see a tier1 not finishing at least third in their pool. However, Uruguay vs Italy and Tonga vs Scotland (which would be a wild upset) could be just as interesting as the mess in the other half of the draw.

I like how Fiji and Samoa are playing pretty conservative. Its not a style I enjoy as a neutral, but its a style that has more chance of holding up in pressure situations and tight games. England's seemingly meteoric fall (why do people say meteoric rise, it defies gravity?) shakes up the entire bottom half of the draw.

If England come out looking this rubbish against the Pumas (instead of the slightly less crap performances against Wales (the win) and Ireland) then Samoa and Japan might rest up against the Pumas and both target England.

Similarly, Australia and Wales probably now have to go full strength against Fiji following their performances against France and England.

Basically, I have quite a bit more interest in the pool stage after the last 24hrs has taken me by surprise. But a lack of confidence in the Georgian and Japanese set piece does not have me predicting an earthquake.
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Japan haven’t had the best prep, but they’ll have seen how bad England’s ‘defence’ is and will fancy themselves to create opportunities. Score a couple of tries and I’m not confident England have the attack to score enough points in response.

Even if defeat Samoa will take a massive boost from the Ireland game and will definitely believe they can turn England over.

If I had to call it now, I’d say England lose to Argentina, beat Japan and Chile and then finish with an ignominious defeat to Samoa. Who qualifies then depends on Japan and Samoa’s other results, but I wouldn’t rule out England finishing 3rd at all.

If Australia and Wales were planning to be anything other than full strength vs. Fiji they’ll surely be scrapping that now.
 
Fascinating to read back through some of this thread.

I'm not targeting anyone, and we all get predictions wrong but it seemed the prevailing themes were with:

France winning their group.

SA pulling through to top theirs

Australia big favourites and Wales in a dog fight for 2nd.

Argentina slight favourites to pip England.

TBH pre tournament I would probably have agreed with all of that. However in comparison we have seen.

England impress.

Austrlia collapse.

Wales cruise to group winners.

Ireland and SA showing the level anyone else has to rise to to win the tournament, I dont think I've seen anything from anyone else to get near that game, with the only obvious as France with the potential.

So what have we learnt 3 rounds in?

Ireland are the real deal, and are here to win!

France are going to have to raise their game to put SA out!

England and/or Wales may well be bolting on the outside to the semis.

Fascinating RWC so far, I enjoyed my 12 days between Bordeaux and Nice and back, despite the well known incompetencies of the organisers!

Fingers crossed the final rounds and knockouts keep up the entertainment!
 
Idk why you say France need to show they can compete on the level of South Africa and Ireland. South Africa vs Ireland may have been a close and dramatic game but I don’t think either team showed that they are unstoppable. In fact, I think they showed that they had pretty big flaws. There were 30 combined turnovers in the game. SA kicked 20% from the tee (should be better with pollard) and Ireland had a terrible lineout. Ireland showed they could win a close physical game but that’s about it.
 
die_mole said:
Idk why you say France need to show they can compete on the level of South Africa and Ireland. South Africa vs Ireland may have been a close and dramatic game but I don’t think either team showed that they are unstoppable. In fact, I think they showed that they had pretty big flaws. There were 30 combined turnovers in the game. SA kicked 20% from the tee (should be better with pollard) and Ireland had a terrible lineout. Ireland showed they could win a close physical game but that’s about it.
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Leave it out, that was easily hands down the highest quality game of the tournament. The brutality from both sides was incredible. Neither team played poorly, or made too many mistakes, everything from both teams was earnt hard!

that first game up was ok, France v NZ but both of those teams need to go up a gear of anything we've seen from them to compete with these 2!
 
France still my pick to win it all even if Duponte doesn't play again. His status as best player in the world overshadows how much strength in depth they have. A lot of SA and Irish fans are suffering from the classic tunnel vision normally seen in NZ fans when the ABs look unstoppable (I've been guilty of this myself plenty of times in the past). They need to explain how SA almost beat Ireland without Marx and Pollard but France are supposedly mud without Duponte and Ntamack.

Form in the pool stages only means so much as well. Once the QFs start the scripts will be torn up and we're going to see new plays and strategies that teams have kept in the locker for years, or unexpected patterns of play based on the smallest lack of attention to detail from the opposition.
 
miccloarch said:
France still my pick to win it all even if Duponte doesn't play again. His status as best player in the world overshadows how much strength in depth they have. A lot of SA and Irish fans are suffering from the classic tunnel vision normally seen in NZ fans when the ABs look unstoppable (I've been guilty of this myself plenty of times in the past). They need to explain how SA almost beat Ireland without Marx and Pollard but France are supposedly mud without Duponte and Ntamack.

Form in the pool stages only means so much as well. Once the QFs start the scripts will be torn up and we're going to see new plays and strategies that teams have kept in the locker for years, or unexpected patterns of play based on the smallest lack of attention to detail from the opposition.
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I mean to be fair to the Irish, they do have every right to have a lot of belief their systems and consistency are proven to work, without a doubt the inform team, I have absolutely no doubt that SA have a few plans of their own, whilst they would back their game and style over anyone, I don’t doubt they have a few Irish specific nuances they would have reserved for a potential final instead of pool stages, I’m not saying it will work but the coaching setup is too good and detailed not to have something. Whilst the top three are without a doubt in a league of their own, I don’t think the gap is so big that Wales, England, NZ and Fiji aren't capable of a single game upset if they play to their peak and the opposition are off a chunk, no way that happens all around but any one of those causing a bit of an upset isn't inconceivable.
 
Jimbo said:
I mean to be fair to the Irish, they do have every right to have a lot of belief their systems and consistency are proven to work, without a doubt the inform team, I have absolutely no doubt that SA have a few plans of their own, whilst they would back their game and style over anyone, I don’t doubt they have a few Irish specific nuances they would have reserved for a potential final instead of pool stages, I’m not saying it will work but the coaching setup is too good and detailed not to have something.
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Based on form, Ireland are the team to beat, sure. They didn't impress me that much against SA though. Lineout was absolute rubbish and they controlled the game for big periods but the Boks could have easily won that game if they kicked their goals or that last maul decision went their way.

Also, ask any All Black fan over age 30 what form means in a World Cup knockout game against spirited opposition and they'll tell you: "diddly squat." The best team doesn't always win the tournament and right now France aren't the best team but they're definitely good enough and of course home advantage could be the difference. Mentally they also seem the best prepared of the favourites: not too high, not too low in their expectations and emotions (and for a team that's often seen as being erratic and having a "latin" temperament, that's a surprise).

Tactically, SA will always stand a chance while Rassie is the de facto head coach (poor Nienabar, he must feel like a muppet sometimes). I just doubt whether they have the desire and ability to rise to the occasion again after the heroics in 2019. Also, that year their path to the trophy was easier than it potentially will be this time.

Whilst the top three are without a doubt in a league of their own, I don't think the gap is so big that Wales, England, NZ and Fiji aren't capable of a single game upset if they play to their peak and the opposition are off a chunk, no way that happens all around but any one of those causing a bit of an upset isn't inconceivable.
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An Argentine team with their backs against the wall can be dangerous too. This tournaments needs an upset because apart from a few games, the quality and drama has been much lower than previous editions.
 
miccloarch said:
Based on form, Ireland are the team to beat, sure. They didn't impress me that much against SA though. Lineout was absolute rubbish and they controlled the game for big periods but the Boks could have easily won that game if they kicked their goals or that last maul decision went their way.

Also, ask any All Black fan over age 30 what form means in a World Cup knockout game against spirited opposition and they'll tell you: "diddly squat." The best team doesn't always win the tournament and right now France aren't the best team but they're definitely good enough and of course home advantage could be the difference. Mentally they also seem the best prepared of the favourites: not too high, not too low in their expectations and emotions (and for a team that's often seen as being erratic and having a "latin" temperament, that's a surprise).

Tactically, SA will always stand a chance while Rassie is the de facto head coach (poor Nienabar, he must feel like a muppet sometimes). I just doubt whether they have the desire and ability to rise to the occasion again after the heroics in 2019. Also, that year their path to the trophy was easier than it potentially will be this time.



An Argentine team with their backs against the wall can be dangerous too. This tournaments needs an upset because apart from a few games, the quality and drama has been much lower than previous editions.
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Yeah forgot about Arg tbh, I personally predict SA retaining it, if they don’t get anymore major injuries, if their pack really turn up I don’t think it can currently be matched, Ireland on recent showing did a great job and it was defiantly game of the tournament, could have gone either way Ireland would have had to be more careful and play a little differently had SA slotted pens and I just feel a good chunk of the SA pack have an extra gear which they didn’t find in that game, could be that Ireland just have what it takes to defend that which others don’t but that’s my perception.
 
Ireland, SA and France are all 3/1 with NZ 7/2. The QF narrative definitely affects our odds, get past NZ and I make us favourites by a little bit if we don't get decimated.
 
Whore of Shame said:
Ireland, SA and France are all 3/1 with NZ 7/2. The QF narrative definitely affects our odds, get past NZ and I make us favourites by a little bit if we don't get decimated.
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Might be wrong but everyone who's ever beaten the AB's in a knock out game at the RWC. Lost the next match. Ireland should break that curse.
 
Saintjay said:
Might be wrong but everyone who's ever beaten the AB's in a knock out game at the RWC. Lost the next match. Ireland should break that curse.
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Well, Wales won't be the issue there.

Feel like the officiating definitely might go against us. We're the most disciplined side in the world when it comes to headshots and it's definitely been an advantage for us, absolutely nullified this tournament with anything going.

Anyway, I'm not massively interested in bigging us up but people need reminded that we're not here to make up numbers still (not you) which is a wee bit mad.
 
Whore of Shame said:
Well, Wales won't be the issue there.
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Yeah yeah, have you thought about the possibility that Sexton and half of your first team get injured in the NZ qtr final win and then, in our semi final, you get 5 red cards in the first 10 mins and Nigel Owens being brought in as last minute cover to officiate the game? Didn’t think you had. I’ll let you ponder that one when you go to sleep tonight boyo. Nos da.
 

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