There are ten minutes to play. It's hypothetical scenario time.

[DuncTheDoodle]

Inspired by Munster's exploits today, picture the situation:

It's a big knock-out game and you are the captain. There's 10 minutes to play, and you are 5 points behind, so two kicks or one try + conversion would see you ahead. You are awarded a penalty just outside the opposition 22, half way between the touchline and the goalposts. Your lineout and scrum are both solid enough, but unspectacular. Your kicker has a good 80-90% average. Do you kick for the posts and hope to get back down there and look for three more points, or do you go for the corner are risk the try?

This is the sort of debate that seems to dominate post-match discussions on tight games, and I thought maybe we could get some sort of cons consensus and debate going on what the right option would be in this and whether it would change if, say, a team were 4 points down instead of 5.

 

[SelimNiai]

I go for the points. Maybe seen as negative but that was my immediate call at the time but I don't think there's a right and wrong answer at the time, either one is a gamble thats only debated through hindsight.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Can you get into an attacking position again? If you think you can, go for points, if you don't, go for the corner/scrum depending on what your best set piece is.

 

[TheSaffycen]

Are you on top of the other team, or are you under pressure constantly and finding it hard to get territory ? If I am on top and the other team looks weak, then go for the throat and take the lead. If I was under pressure the whole time I would take the points and make it 2 points, then you only need a drop goal or penalty.

 

[Peat]

Huh. My logic is the opposite of Saffycen's. If I have the momentum, I feel confident about taking the three and coming back for more. If I don't, I look for the gamble, as I feel that if I go for the posts, they'll probably get another kick back.

 

[TheSaffycen]

Huh. My logic is the opposite of Saffycen's. If I have the momentum, I feel confident about taking the three and coming back for more. If I don't, I look for the gamble, as I feel that if I go for the posts, they'll probably get another kick back.

Momentum is all important when you have 10 minutes left, and you are on top you need to keep on the pressure. If you have the advantage and are on the front foot if you take the 3 points, you are 2 points behind and you are letting the opposition boot the ball as deep as they can and you then have to throw the ball around and have to keep hold of the ball. If you go for the try and get the 7 points then the other team has to score and if you have been the better team than you can hold onto the ball but don't have to force anything, can even just kick the ball down into the opposition 22.

 

[DuncTheDoodle]

Huh. My logic is the opposite of Saffycen's. If I have the momentum, I feel confident about taking the three and coming back for more. If I don't, I look for the gamble, as I feel that if I go for the posts, they'll probably get another kick back.

That's the way I look at it. Build as many points as you can. There are still ten minutes to play, so you'll have the time to look to kick, retain the ball and get back down there if you're in any position of ascendancy. You don't want to have to leave yourself with it all to do in the last play if you blow the chance after being bold. I like to be within penalty/drop goal range at the end if ever possible, and if that means constructing a drop goal opportunity with seven or eight minutes to go, so be it. It's easier to convert territory into 3 points than it is 7, so just look to get said territory twice.

Of course, there's also the chance your kicker could miss.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

It depends a lot on context but the amount of points people come away with when they go for the corner is far less than penalties when you average the results of those decisions. If your team has the capability to retain possession and work its way up the pitch again, I'd go for the 3 points. If you have a great lineout and driving maul then give that a shot.

Also the downside of missing a penalty is less than getting nothing from kicking to touch because you've wasted less time. If you miss a penalty you should be able to get possession back from the restart. If you don't get anything from the lineout, there is no guarentee of getting possession again.

 

[ABs2011]

9 times out of 10 a team will take the points. The one time they don't is typically a mistake

Seriously though, that is pretty much how I feel - if ever my team was in that situation I would hope they take the points - the only time Im happy with taking the risk and going to the touchline is if the other team has a man in the bin and/or you have a massive rolling mall advantage and feel really confident you can mall in off the line-out! - Even then, on average you will still come up empty.....

So what happened in the game today? Presumably this conversation has started because one team had the chance to take 3 points, they didn't, went for the try, came up empty and lost the game?

 

[TheSaffycen]

It is a very good question. Does anyone remember England v South Africa a couple years back ? We where in the same position (less time possibly) and Robshaw said kick the penalty, we got the 3 points and then screwed up the restart, everyone said he should have gone to the corner. It does all depend on context of the game, we weren't going to maul the ball over but maybe keeping the pressure on might have forced the try ? Who knows ?

 

[ABs2011]

It is a very good question. Does anyone remember England v South Africa a couple years back ? We where in the same position (less time possibly) and Robshaw said kick the penalty, we got the 3 points and then screwed up the restart, everyone said he should have gone to the corner. It does all depend on context of the game, we weren't going to maul the ball over but maybe keeping the pressure on might have forced the try ? Who knows ?

Yeah, Im not sure that sort of analysis really adds much though. Anyone could come up with any number of games where a team has decided to go wone way or the other and it has or hasn't worked out, the trouble s we will never now the counterfactual...as you say, "who knows?" right?

So the only way to really get a good handle on it without bias is to look at it in the way that ragerancher has alluded to. Figure out on average how many points people come away with via the penalty vs the kick to touch. Additionally you would want to look at the % of teams that win given each approach. There is of course a bunch of other confounding factors the one would probably like to take into consideration as well; wind, yellow cards, home team adv, etc etc, but going that far is probably over analyzing it.

I have not seen any analysis in this respect, but in the age of big data and statistical analysis in sport, I suspect many teams have researched this very question. Bill Belichick (coach of the NE Patriots) is well known for making on field decisions such as these purely based on statistical analysis and effectively letting the numbers dictate what is the best way to go.

My strong hunch after watching many years of rugby is that ragerancher is correct. In the majority of circumstances, on average, taking the points on offer is that best way to go.

 

[big ginger 8]

Going for the kick is probably more of a gurantee of enough points but as Munster showed us today messing up restarts is a really distinct possibility. My natural inclination is to go to the corner. But it really depends on a number of factors in the moment. Like how good is your lineout? How good's your maul? Have you any trick plays you think will work? Or any back ones? How's the ref been reffing the maul? Can you get back out of your half? How good's your kicker? etc.

 

[munstermuffin]

I think go for corner. We killed time off sin bin and also we couldn't guarantee another chance. Add in we had momentum and IF we'd scored it'd be a thread on how brave or great call was. That's sport gentlemen every team is different and every bounce of a ball will go for you or against you we don't know.
Munster were brave and came up short but went for it and while some say take 3 fact is we gambled on getting the win. It didn't work but again if it did it'd have been great decision so that's luck

 

[smartcooky]

Firstly, if you get the 3 points, it leaves you 2 points behind. Ten minutes is plenty of time to get field position and a dropped goal to put you in front. Even of you later concede a penalty goal or drop goal, you will still be within a converted try of the lead.

Secondly, even if you miss and kick it dead (from the 22 you should) you will likely retain possession from the 22 DO (or at least you will be in a contest for the ball) and again you will still be within a converted try of winning.

But, if you go for the corner, and it doesn't work out, you'll be under pressure to score a converted try to win.

Its a no-brainer; the high percentage play is to attempt to take the points.

 

[LittleGuy]

Firstly, if you get the 3 points, it leaves you 2 points behind. Ten minutes is plenty of time to get field position and a dropped goal to put you in front. Even of you later concede a penalty goal or drop goal, you will still be within a converted try of the lead.

Secondly, even if you miss and kick it dead (from the 22 you should) you will likely retain possession from the 22 DO (or at least you will be in a contest for the ball) and again you will still be within a converted try of winning.

But, if you go for the corner, and it doesn't work out, you'll be under pressure to score a converted try to win.

Its a no-brainer; the high percentage play is to attempt to take the points.

Completely agree with this, I always follow the rule which I originally heard from gridiron(which has similar point values and situational choices like this) a coach and captain HAVE to keep their team in the closest position to win for the longest possible time. You take the points virtually every time it's just the no brainer as cooky says. The only exception I would put in is if kicking is an extremely diffcult prospect due to weather/lack of a capable kicker etc.

 

[Jaguares]

If I'm the captain, on the field, I would go for points. If I'm only a supporter, outside of the field, I would go for the try.

 

[Big Ewis]

it depends. If my team is leading by 35 points, I'm probably going for uhh. The try. Oh wait there's more than just the ***le ? Fk this, too complicated...

 

[smartcooky]

it depends. If my team is leading by 35 points, I'm probably going for uhh. The try. Oh wait there's more than just the ***le ? Fk this, too complicated...

Doh! Try reading the OP first

 

[Kiwiwomble]

if i'm the Highlanders captain?.....i hold a full team conference on the middle of the pitch for about 5 mins...then kick for the corner...get the try but fail to give myself enough time to get back down

 

[Rich Taff]

Depends on the kickers range as well.

I've gone for the 3pts though, just seems the more promising option.

If you get the ball back, the opposition are extremely careful regards giving away a penalty (especially if the kicker is someone like 1/2p where anything inside your own half is kickable) so tend to be less 'intrusive' in the ruck, aiding the chances of grabbing a late try, let alone a drop goal/penalty.