I've felt that was the most likely end-game from the moment he sent tanks in, beyond the rebel areas.- BBC ran a paragraph in their live updates essentially indicating information that the plan may be to split Ukraine in two. West half to be a puppet regime and Eastern half to presumably be incorporated into the Russian federation (as the nervous Russian spy chief said he supported on live TV for the separatist areas on the link I posted earlier). I think this sounds viable as a plan for Russia if they don't intend to go into full madness in the Baltic states.
Annex the Eastern half, destroy the infrastructure, and anything remotely militarily strategic in the Western half, install a puppet in the West, declare victory, go home and draw up plans for Georgia, based on how NATO reacted.
But that was mostly based on the obvious division a glance at a map would suggest, and his stated (yeah, I know) desire to have a buffer nation between Russia and NATO
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