I didn't know about them but the second sentence on wikipedia told me all I needed to know.
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A Political Thread pt. 2
- Thread starter ncurd
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"Founded in July 2020 by George Galloway"
I don't remember a point where a NATO country was attacked by another nation so it's hard to gauge what will happen. I know Macron is a bit cynical about NATO (France always have been) and is pushing for a more EU based alliance but that leaves the US, UK and Turkey out of the order of battle so he will have a hard time convincing Poland and the Baltic nations that's a good idea.
It all hinges on the Americans and how they react. Their conventional military dwarfs Russia's so if they did stand by the likes of Estonia then Russia would back down or face some heavy losses.
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I've delved into the world of far right Scottish unionism this morning and wish I hadn't. They're bizarrely fascinated with "Irexit", the only supporting party here gets less than .1 percent of the nation wide vote. I nearly engaged and I haven't tweeted in 8 years but what's the point when their views come from an alternative history they've written.
"Ireland's resentment to Britain stems from misgovernment in the 19th century"... Talk about an understatement!
Is Ireland in NATO?
Absolutely no chance.
The logistical train behind that would be so vulnerable nato would be having wet dreams. Even if Ireland aren't in nato, the opportunity would be so enticing they couldn't pass it up.
All troops committed would easily be cut from supplies.
All ships committed would be within easy range of nato submarines and air attack and a long way from support
All aircraft committed would have to transit around Norway or fly through natos entire European IADS.
Basically it'd be suicide.
Whereas the baltics and Ukraine are on his doorstep
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No.
It would never have been allowed happen obviously but they were messing around her constantly. I think he might have thought NATO were that squeamish that he might just get away with it.
If he was given free pass to do it, he would know he could walk into Ukraine and right up to NATO's borders.
Can't imagine a situation where Ireland gets invaded and the British don't go in to bat for them. You might not like us but we quite like you.
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I'm not saying otherwise! Putin/Russia had a weird fascination here though, I thought he was just ******* around and causing trouble for the sake of it but following the last few days there actions seem that they could have been more calculated than they appeared at the time.
It would require extreme arrogance or ignorance to Irish foreign relations to think you could get away with it. Both are very possible, we're fairly insignificant as a nation to Russia, just a very strategic location.
Or America
Yeah you have to also to take into consideration how much of the USA thinks their Irish. I don't think either country it would be politically viable to stand aside.
Yeah just writing the above.
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British troops in Estonia
I have no idea how to even start trying to verify this:
Ukraine invasion: Drone footage shows British troops arriving in Estonia
The deployment is part of a NATO mission and comes as Russia invades Ukraine.
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Tbh it is a weird sect that I'm sure basically only exists on twitter and not in real life. I know a very politically diverse pool of people and have still never met that lot irl.
Even the orange order lot aren't denying reality to that extent
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So the main things today for me are:
- I now think prioritising Chernobyl is part of the theatre of Putin's attempts to 'prevent Ukrainian Nazis from developing nukes', just like part of his rationale is to attack to prevent these Nazis from sending Islamic militants to attack him. So visibly prioritising Chernobyl helps him sell the war domestically to those who don't know anything about the production of nukes ("I'm saving you from nuclear attack"). Elevated radiation around Chernobyl is believed to be military vehicles churning up soil and dust. Note, under Zelensky Ukraine is the only country to have had a Jewish President and Prime Minister at the same time, somewhat unusual Nazis then!
- BBC ran a paragraph in their live updates essentially indicating information that the plan may be to split Ukraine in two. West half to be a puppet regime and Eastern half to presumably be incorporated into the Russian federation (as the nervous Russian spy chief said he supported on live TV for the separatist areas on the link I posted earlier). I think this sounds viable as a plan for Russia if they don't intend to go into full madness in the Baltic states.
- stock markets reportedly went up after sanctions were announced, as capitalists everywhere breathed a sigh of relief that the world wasn't taking steps that would jeopardise shareholder dividends.
- I now think prioritising Chernobyl is part of the theatre of Putin's attempts to 'prevent Ukrainian Nazis from developing nukes', just like part of his rationale is to attack to prevent these Nazis from sending Islamic militants to attack him. So visibly prioritising Chernobyl helps him sell the war domestically to those who don't know anything about the production of nukes ("I'm saving you from nuclear attack"). Elevated radiation around Chernobyl is believed to be military vehicles churning up soil and dust. Note, under Zelensky Ukraine is the only country to have had a Jewish President and Prime Minister at the same time, somewhat unusual Nazis then!
- BBC ran a paragraph in their live updates essentially indicating information that the plan may be to split Ukraine in two. West half to be a puppet regime and Eastern half to presumably be incorporated into the Russian federation (as the nervous Russian spy chief said he supported on live TV for the separatist areas on the link I posted earlier). I think this sounds viable as a plan for Russia if they don't intend to go into full madness in the Baltic states.
- stock markets reportedly went up after sanctions were announced, as capitalists everywhere breathed a sigh of relief that the world wasn't taking steps that would jeopardise shareholder dividends.
BiggusLaddus
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Putin calling for Ukrainian military to overthrow their own government. Suggests to me either things are not going as well for Russia as it appears, or he really does believe the shite he's been spouting about this being a liberation.
I really hope it isn't the second.
I really hope it isn't the second.
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Or it makes it a ton easier to justify at home if he can point to an uprising, no matter how contrived, and use it as evidence of liberation. The Russians don't need the Ukrainians to rise up to win militarily. The Ukrainians are hopelessly outgunned.
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Zelensky offers talks on Ukraine becoming neutral. Suggested on the telly that Putin spoke with Xi and Xi thought it would be good to speak with Zelensky (not sure how we could know that).
www.reuters.com
Not sure Putin would settle for the Eastern half of Ukraine being his and the Western half being Zelensky and demilitarised. But if he can achieve that within 72hrs and can do so avoiding the bloodshed entering cities then perhaps he might as that's not a bad return for a weeks work.
Hard for Zelensky to sell Eastern Ukraine down the river so early, but he can point to a lack of assistance from the West and a willingness to spare suffering in the face of an uneven war with a foe with complete air superiority.
Russia ready to send delegation to Minsk for talks with Ukraine - agencies
Russia is ready to send a delegation to the Belarusian capital Minsk for talks with Ukraine, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Friday, a day after Moscow launched a massive invasion of its southern neighbour.
www.reuters.com
Not sure Putin would settle for the Eastern half of Ukraine being his and the Western half being Zelensky and demilitarised. But if he can achieve that within 72hrs and can do so avoiding the bloodshed entering cities then perhaps he might as that's not a bad return for a weeks work.
Hard for Zelensky to sell Eastern Ukraine down the river so early, but he can point to a lack of assistance from the West and a willingness to spare suffering in the face of an uneven war with a foe with complete air superiority.
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It's hilarious that he calls Zelensky a puppet of the west and yet he thinks his fat bald mate with the dodgy moustache is the democratically elected leader of Belarus.
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