A Political Thread pt. 2

[ncurd]

He was a member of that weird alliance for unity thing

I didn't know about them but the second sentence on wikipedia told me all I needed to know.

"Founded in July 2020 by George Galloway"

 

[Deleted member 53362]

Militarily he might get what he wants, but in the long term it may cause him more trouble than its worth.

It's definitely going to cause the west more trouble re. Taiwan.

Also raises the spectre of just how watertight nato is on article 5.

If the Russians marched into Lithuania or Estonia - are you absolutely 100% sure western politicians would have the stomach for war? I'm not convinced another appeasement or more blatant fold wouldn't happen.

I don't remember a point where a NATO country was attacked by another nation so it's hard to gauge what will happen. I know Macron is a bit cynical about NATO (France always have been) and is pushing for a more EU based alliance but that leaves the US, UK and Turkey out of the order of battle so he will have a hard time convincing Poland and the Baltic nations that's a good idea.

It all hinges on the Americans and how they react. Their conventional military dwarfs Russia's so if they did stand by the likes of Estonia then Russia would back down or face some heavy losses.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

I didn't know about them but the second sentence on wikipedia told me all I needed to know.

"Founded in July 2020 by George Galloway"

He was a member of that weird alliance for unity thing

I've delved into the world of far right Scottish unionism this morning and wish I hadn't. They're bizarrely fascinated with "Irexit", the only supporting party here gets less than .1 percent of the nation wide vote. I nearly engaged and I haven't tweeted in 8 years but what's the point when their views come from an alternative history they've written.

"Ireland's resentment to Britain stems from misgovernment in the 19th century"... Talk about an understatement!

 

[Deleted member 53362]

Surely NATO should be increasing the number of troops on their Eastern European members borders? There has to be some physical response to this even if the message is only along the lines of "well you got away with this one but we won't be so passive next time".

I think now that Putin was genuinely considering an attack on Ireland, which goes to show how weak he thinks the west can be. The Russians were regularly flying in our airspace and then there was their intended missile test. It seems like the same sort of tactic used when surrounding Ukraine altered to a vulnerable island nation.

Fortunately and predictably the UK and French reaction was stern and swift but by God we need to invest in some aircrafts to deter this stuff on our own.

Is Ireland in NATO?

 

[Amiga500]

I think now that Putin was genuinely considering an attack on Ireland

Absolutely no chance.

The logistical train behind that would be so vulnerable nato would be having wet dreams. Even if Ireland aren't in nato, the opportunity would be so enticing they couldn't pass it up.

All troops committed would easily be cut from supplies.
All ships committed would be within easy range of nato submarines and air attack and a long way from support
All aircraft committed would have to transit around Norway or fly through natos entire European IADS.

Basically it'd be suicide.

Whereas the baltics and Ukraine are on his doorstep

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Is Ireland in NATO?

No.

Absolutely no chance.

The logistical train behind that would be so vulnerable nato would be having wet dreams.

All troops committed would easily be cut from supplies. All ships comitted would be within easy range of nato submarines and air attack and a long way from support
All aircraft comitted would have to transit around Norway or fly through natos entire European IADS.

Basically it'd be suicide.

Whereas the baltics and Ukraine are on his doorstep

It would never have been allowed happen obviously but they were messing around her constantly. I think he might have thought NATO were that squeamish that he might just get away with it.

If he was given free pass to do it, he would know he could walk into Ukraine and right up to NATO's borders.

 

[ncurd]

Can't imagine a situation where Ireland gets invaded and the British don't go in to bat for them. You might not like us but we quite like you.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Can't imagine a situation where Ireland gets invaded and the British don't go in to bat for them. You might not like us but we quite like you.

I'm not saying otherwise! Putin/Russia had a weird fascination here though, I thought he was just ******* around and causing trouble for the sake of it but following the last few days there actions seem that they could have been more calculated than they appeared at the time.

It would require extreme arrogance or ignorance to Irish foreign relations to think you could get away with it. Both are very possible, we're fairly insignificant as a nation to Russia, just a very strategic location.

 

[Deleted member 53362]

Can't imagine a situation where Ireland gets invaded and the British don't go in to bat for them. You might not like us but we quite like you.

Or America

 

[ncurd]

I'm not saying otherwise! Putin/Russia had a weird fascination here though, I thought he was just ******* around and causing trouble for the sake of it but following the last few days there actions seem that they could have been more calculated than they appeared at the time.

It would require extreme arrogance or ignorance to Irish foreign relations to think you could get away with it. Both are very possible, we're fairly insignificant as a nation to Russia, just a very strategic location.

Yeah you have to also to take into consideration how much of the USA thinks their Irish. I don't think either country it would be politically viable to stand aside.

Or America

Yeah just writing the above.

 

[ncurd]

.

 

[Deleted member 53362]

British troops in Estonia

 

[Which Tyler]

I have no idea how to even start trying to verify this:

 

[Which Tyler]

British troops in Estonia

Ukraine invasion: Drone footage shows British troops arriving in Estonia

The deployment is part of a NATO mission and comes as Russia invades Ukraine.

news.sky.com

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

I've delved into the world of far right Scottish unionism this morning and wish I hadn't. They're bizarrely fascinated with "Irexit", the only supporting party here gets less than .1 percent of the nation wide vote. I nearly engaged and I haven't tweeted in 8 years but what's the point when their views come from an alternative history they've written.

"Ireland's resentment to Britain stems from misgovernment in the 19th century"... Talk about an understatement!

Tbh it is a weird sect that I'm sure basically only exists on twitter and not in real life. I know a very politically diverse pool of people and have still never met that lot irl.

Even the orange order lot aren't denying reality to that extent

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

So the main things today for me are:

- I now think prioritising Chernobyl is part of the theatre of Putin's attempts to 'prevent Ukrainian Nazis from developing nukes', just like part of his rationale is to attack to prevent these Nazis from sending Islamic militants to attack him. So visibly prioritising Chernobyl helps him sell the war domestically to those who don't know anything about the production of nukes ("I'm saving you from nuclear attack"). Elevated radiation around Chernobyl is believed to be military vehicles churning up soil and dust. Note, under Zelensky Ukraine is the only country to have had a Jewish President and Prime Minister at the same time, somewhat unusual Nazis then!

- BBC ran a paragraph in their live updates essentially indicating information that the plan may be to split Ukraine in two. West half to be a puppet regime and Eastern half to presumably be incorporated into the Russian federation (as the nervous Russian spy chief said he supported on live TV for the separatist areas on the link I posted earlier). I think this sounds viable as a plan for Russia if they don't intend to go into full madness in the Baltic states.

- stock markets reportedly went up after sanctions were announced, as capitalists everywhere breathed a sigh of relief that the world wasn't taking steps that would jeopardise shareholder dividends.

 

[BiggusLaddus]

Putin calling for Ukrainian military to overthrow their own government. Suggests to me either things are not going as well for Russia as it appears, or he really does believe the shite he's been spouting about this being a liberation.

I really hope it isn't the second.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Putin calling for Ukrainian military to overthrow their own government. Suggests to me either things are not going as well for Russia as it appears, or he really does believe the shite he's been spouting about this being a liberation.

I really hope it isn't the second.

Or it makes it a ton easier to justify at home if he can point to an uprising, no matter how contrived, and use it as evidence of liberation. The Russians don't need the Ukrainians to rise up to win militarily. The Ukrainians are hopelessly outgunned.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Zelensky offers talks on Ukraine becoming neutral. Suggested on the telly that Putin spoke with Xi and Xi thought it would be good to speak with Zelensky (not sure how we could know that).

Russia ready to send delegation to Minsk for talks with Ukraine - agencies

Russia is ready to send a delegation to the Belarusian capital Minsk for talks with Ukraine, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Friday, a day after Moscow launched a massive invasion of its southern neighbour.

www.reuters.com

Not sure Putin would settle for the Eastern half of Ukraine being his and the Western half being Zelensky and demilitarised. But if he can achieve that within 72hrs and can do so avoiding the bloodshed entering cities then perhaps he might as that's not a bad return for a weeks work.

Hard for Zelensky to sell Eastern Ukraine down the river so early, but he can point to a lack of assistance from the West and a willingness to spare suffering in the face of an uneven war with a foe with complete air superiority.

 

[General Melchett]

So the main things today for me are:

- I now think prioritising Chernobyl is part of the theatre of Putin's attempts to 'prevent Ukrainian Nazis from developing nukes', just like part of his rationale is to attack to prevent these Nazis from sending Islamic militants to attack him. So visibly prioritising Chernobyl helps him sell the war domestically to those who don't know anything about the production of nukes ("I'm saving you from nuclear attack"). Elevated radiation around Chernobyl is believed to be military vehicles churning up soil and dust. Note, under Zelensky Ukraine is the only country to have had a Jewish President and Prime Minister at the same time, somewhat unusual Nazis then!

- BBC ran a paragraph in their live updates essentially indicating information that the plan may be to split Ukraine in two. West half to be a puppet regime and Eastern half to presumably be incorporated into the Russian federation (as the nervous Russian spy chief said he supported on live TV for the separatist areas on the link I posted earlier). I think this sounds viable as a plan for Russia if they don't intend to go into full madness in the Baltic states.

- stock markets reportedly went up after sanctions were announced, as capitalists everywhere breathed a sigh of relief that the world wasn't taking steps that would jeopardise shareholder dividends.

It's hilarious that he calls Zelensky a puppet of the west and yet he thinks his fat bald mate with the dodgy moustache is the democratically elected leader of Belarus.