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My friends very lengthy post on face-masks (this isn't their firs face-masks suck unless you know what your doing post) and what you should be doing instead,

So true. Leave the masks for fit tested and trained Healthcare workers who know how to use them, will have massively high exposure and who you will need to care for your loved ones who become seriously ill and need additional support.

All masks are also not equal, you need to know which ones are appropriate. Many people are buying and wearing inappropriate masks and are falsely reassured.

If you're out in the community then you need to:

1) undertake regular and good hand hygiene (I can post videos if you'd like). With this virus either alcohol gel (at least 70%) or soap and water are effective. Please don't use water alone. Practice this now, it's a good habit during any winter season.

Make sure you do this after being on public transport, after handling money etc

2) minimise face touching. This is no where near as easy as you think. Most studies show that people will unconsciously face touch about 60 times as hour. Eye rubbing is the worst for transmission but you can reduce it through practice. It may be time to be aware of your habits.

3) contact distancing. Evidence so far indicates spread is droplet based, this is normal for Coronaviruses. The advice therefore is to try and stay 2m apart to reduce exposure.

It is not an easy thing to maintain distance and is probably not necessary right now but start thinking about how close you get to people.

On public transport you will have little choice, but it may be time to stop hugging as a normal part of greeting and cheek kissing. Some are suggesting that elbow bumps should be the new normal

If you share your space consider moving furniture to position it that little bit further apart.

4) carry tissues. It's the winter season, there are already lots of viruses out there. May sure you contain sneezes, cough into elbows to reduce and contamination. Ensure that you dispose of tissues and they dont sit around in pockets and bags. Make sure you decontaminate your hands after every event. Again this is general good practice and now is the time to start.

5) Finally and most importantly keep up if you can with the ever changing situation so you know if you are in a situation where you should be self isolating, if you've travelled to somewhere where you need to possibly alter you behaviour on return and adhere to public health requests.

Self isolating doesn't work if you do it apart from when you need to walk the dog etc. There's a lot at stake here so please understand you're being asked to do things that disrupt your life for a purpose. Your impact matters
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COBRA meeting finished but report/advisories not being published until tomorrow - hopefully there's some leaks before then

Sturgeon said they're not at the stage of needing to cancel events yet
 
Amiga500 said:
Bad call IMO.

It'll not look too clever if a rake of deaths are traced back to these matches which really should have been postponed a few months.
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You're right, they shouldn't go ahead but I understand why they've done it.

I guess their concern is that the situation will be the same/worse in a few months and that they'll never end up playing the games. I do feel a bit sorry for the 6N here, the competition bankrolls the NH game, and while it's easy to criticise them for grabbing money everyone except England and France desperately needs it, or you're suddenly in big trouble.

I guess they can also argue that it's really the government's/health services job to shut them down, like the HSE did here. To be fair, it's not really their responsibility to call off games if the advice from the respective governments says they can go ahead.

That all said, they really shouldn't be played, and I'm happy the game in Ireland isn't going ahead. This isn't the sensible call.
 
Leinster Fan said:
I do feel a bit sorry for the 6N here, the competition bankrolls the NH game, and while it's easy to criticise them for grabbing money everyone except England and France desperately needs it, or you're suddenly in big trouble.
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It does.

But how long can you reasonably expect the professional leagues to continue to play?

France have proposed stopping all events of over 5,000 people.

If that was replicated in the UK (and Hancock has mentioned similar to it in passing), that'd essentially mean the end of all P14, T14 & Premiership matches for this season.

Wouldn't be too hard for all clubs/unions to claim force majeure and pay the players a fraction of their full contracts while the game is suspended.


I'm now not expecting the HEC to finish this season - which is unfortunate as I already have a flight to Toulouse booked. I'll likely get a refund out of ERC.... not holding out much hope of O'Leary giving me my money back.
 
UK cases are at 39...there is absolutely no reason to cancel any large events yet to do so is just a panic manuvere. Even cancelling the Italy matches is premature but you don't want to give fans in the regions that have been hit reasons to travel.

It is highly likely that cancelling of events will occur at some point but it will be the risk of exposure to the virus is likely not now when it is extremely low.


Plus from my understanding it is incredibly unlikely these matches will be able to be rearranged. If it does the UK and Ireland hard it's going to be 9-12 months of massive disruption.
 
Simple solution for the rest of the six nations is to play every game behind closed doors with no spectators. Televised coverage will be provided, so the game can be watched live.

All players and officials to be tested for Covid-19 before each game.

Red card for anybody who sneezes during a game.
 
ncurd said:
UK cases are at 39...there is absolutely no reason to cancel any large events yet to do so is just a panic manuvere.
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You do realise one unfortunate carrier going to a large event means that 39 could quite easily become 309 if not 3009 overnight?

Restricting the spread is best done early when its only a few. F**k about now with half measure and the genie will be out of the bottle - at that point there will be no putting it back.
 
I've got a great deal of sympathy for the view that all meetings of 5k+ people, or whatever number is come to; should be cancelled (or played behind closed doors)
But those decisions are for the CMO, PHE and NHS - not for individual sports organisations who simply don't have the relevant expertise.
 
That's a bit tinfoil for me - even if BoJos statement is political there's no one independently coming out and saying the opposite.

Doctors and medical professionals have a duty of care to people not to the government - I like to think that the leading experts wouldn't just toe the line because Matt Hancock et al don't want to harm their stock options, especially when you hear of Doctors etc. in China speaking out against their Government knowing full well they could be disappeared for the privilege.


As Which Tyler says: The CMO/NHS/PHE have more facts, figures, knowhow, knowledge and expertise than anyone else speculating about it.
 
Amiga500 said:
You do realise one unfortunate carrier going to a large event means that 39 could quite easily become 309 if not 3009 overnight?
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Uh no because the pathology of the thing (which is not fully understood) actually makes that unlikely, its actual problematic factors go into spread of the virus post the event rather than actually at it. So 1 carrier infects 10 people around them then those 10 spread it 4-5 different locations around the country thus making it far more difficult to contain as an outbreak..

Anyway as others have pointed out I'll take my advice from experts in their field which I'm 99.9% sure if they felt going to large events was a massive issue they would be saying so. If not publicly very definitely, as undisclosed sources and privately to friends and family. From my understanding they seam to more worried about creating panics, knee jerk reactions and over sensationalisation by the media and politicians.

Many experts are on twitter and opening up on what they think now they have had time to analyse and understand the virus. Also now doing things like television and radio. I naturally recommend my friend (https://twitter.com/girlymicro) whom I'm less concerned about protecting now she is saying to share her facebook posts and was on 5Live this morning but other opinions are available but make sure its someone with actual, you know, knowledge....
 
ncurd said:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51718917

This also lines up with what my friend was saying a weeks back so I'm fairly confident of no grand conspiratorial cover up.
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Your friend was saying this and downplaying the problem?!? I think perhaps they were trying to allay your fears or hadn't thought it through!


20% of the workforce at any one time. UK total population is 66.5m, total workforce is 41.6m.

So within the workforce that is 8.3m people off ill. Within the economically inactive, there are 3.2m people that are retired or sick. Lets be optimistic and say 20% of those get it (at any one time). That is ~640,000 people.

Its hard to estimate how many will require acute care, certainly of the workforce population you'd expect it to be relatively small to the retired/sick proportion; but given estimates are currently of death rates of around ~10% for 70+ year olds, you could safely assume at least 60,000 people at any one time require acute care.


Within the entirety of NHS England, there are less than 150,000 beds.
 
ncurd said:
Uh no because the pathology of the thing (which is not fully understood) actually makes that unlikely, its actual problematic factors go into spread of the virus post the event rather than actually at it. So 1 carrier infects 10 people around them then those 10 spread it 4-5 different locations around the country thus making it far more difficult to contain as an outbreak..
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So one person going to the game gets the tube or bus. That is the surrounding people at risk. They go to the pub before the game. Again, more people. They go to the ground, they go to the pub at the ground, they go to the pub after, the bus/tube after...

All of that is happening in packed areas where any sneeze is almost likely to result in droplets on someone nearby - directly or via a surface. Someone vigilant might be all right. Someone who were flippant about it 'ahh its just a cough' could rack up a large number of others infected in one large event.


... and that is before you consider some extremist lunatic that might have it and is actively trying to infect as many others as possible.
 
Okay fine, so you a random idiot on the internet can hunker down with your tin foil hat and not go outside at all based on what is it again?

And I'll continue listening to people I know personally who are experts in the field, been actively involved in the UK response to the virus and one of the few people I trust implicitly.


Your case is incredibly thin.
 
ncurd said:
Your case is incredibly thin.
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That is the extrapolation of the 20% number the government published today.

Just because most folks (Joe Public) shrug their shoulders and don't think through what 20% actually infers, doesn't mean all of us are prevented from scrutinizing just what the fallout might be.


[and I'm not exactly hiding away nor supporting extreme isolation - but there is a leap from that to advocating mass gatherings.]


Oh, and one thing I'm becoming increasingly aware of (see Brexit or Climate for instance). Giving a precise and correct answer that contains numerous caveats is too complex for simple political minds to absorb. So where the 20% number comes from only Boris might know!
 
And you expert knowledge in knowing mass gathering should be stopped at this precise moment of time is based on what?

What about large places of work which don't have air conditioning unit designed specifically to stop the spread of infection throughout a building?

What you are advocating is creating a massive blow in the UK economy at a stage where risk infection is tiny, all but 2 cases within the UK can be traced to people travelling to/from known hotspots. Under any sensible measure that would be a gross over reaction.

As noted by the government, their advisors and experts there will be 'likely' point where those measures will have to be put in place but any sensible plan need to balance impact with risk.


If we get to 20% workforce infected the impact will be huge nobody is denying that and plans are being put place to minimise that as much as humanly possibly it is after all the likely worst case scenario. In general people should follow NHS advice (which similar to that I posted the other day), those at-risk of serious complications should attempt even harder to minimise their risk to exposure.
 
ncurd said:
And you expert knowledge in knowing mass gathering should be stopped at this precise moment of time is based on what?
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Statistics. Simple numbers.

Not to mention the history of it in China given the actions of the Chinese authorities.


ncurd said:
What about large places of work which don't have air conditioning unit designed specifically to stop the spread of infection throughout a building?

What you are advocating is creating a massive blow in the UK economy at a stage where risk infection is tiny, all but 2 cases within the UK can be traced to people travelling to/from known hotspots. Under any sensible measure that would be a gross over reaction.
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Being draconian early has a lesser impact than trying to compensate later on.

Thought experiment:

Shutting the entire country down now for 2 weeks vs. doing the same in July after an explosion in cases.

Now, because cases are still of relatively low number, there are only a few carriers. As they become symptomatic they and the (reduced compared to July) number of people they are in contact with can all be isolated. The facilities or manpower are available to house or service this number of people.

In July, it could be in the thousands if not tens of thousands. Too many for strict isolation, far too many for tracing and isolating folks in contact.

The July shutdown would be utterly ineffective, cost far more and achieve nothing. Whereas now, you'd essentially eliminate the virus in country and then just have to control points of arrival thereafter.


Note: I am not advocating a complete shutdown of the country. The above is just a fundamental illustration of how making a hard decision early will beat that same decision later.


It should be noted the Chinese sat on their hands through December and January - they then shutdown the country in February and still had ~80,000 cases with ~3,000 deaths.
Right now, we are in the equivalent of the Chinese December and are sitting on our hands. Is the govt going to wait till May before waking up?
 
ncurd said:
Okay fine, so you a random idiot on the internet can hunker down with your tin foil hat and not go outside at all based on what is it again?

And I'll continue listening to people I know personally who are experts in the field, been actively involved in the UK response to the virus and one of the few people I trust implicitly.


Your case is incredibly thin.
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idk man. An an American I’m inclined to listen to the loud wrong man than those who have spent their entire adult lives researching this.
 
Again everything your posting is pure speculation based on a non expert opinion without any knowledge of the subject area.

You are right to be cautious but what you are advocating no expert that I'm aware of is in agreement with you.
 
Just a different point of view from someone closer to the pointy end of this than I'd like to be. I'll have to be careful not to compromise identities so I'll be a bit vague. However, those putting faith in the NHS / Government to deal with this may be interested to know of my experience.

The media disclosed that a case of coronavirus had been confirmed at a school in our local area on February 29th. Upon hearing about the school involved my wife commented that she had been on a training course with staff from said school recently. Through social media (no official contact from Public Health England) it was confirmed (Sunday Mar 1st) that the member of staff involved had indeed attended the same training course as my wife (a day before the infected person decided to self isolate). My wife had been been effectively confined within a small room with the individual for a whole day. We rang NHS 111 and after a 45 minute wait were informed that we were in a queue and someone would call back (no advice was offered at this point). After 24 hours this hadn't occurred so we rang again (90 minute wait) to be informed that we just had to wait and be patient. Both my wife and I informed our respective employers, I was told to stay away and WFH for 14 days from initial contact and my wife was informed not to attend school until such time as the NHS / PHE made a determination.

After approx 33 hours at 2am this morning the NHS called back stating that my wife had been assessed as low risk and should return to teaching (no testing required). However, they mentioned that PHE should have been in touch as part of the initial tracing. This did not occur. Should my wife and I have not taken proactive steps, we'd have been none the wiser and would have been working as normal. If this is what "containment" looks like you're kidding yourself if you believe it's any other than window dressing. We're probably just one of thousands of contacts that require follow-up. I suspect the horse is already away to the races and bolting the stable door now will have little effect.
 
ncurd said:
Again everything your posting is pure speculation based on a non expert opinion without any knowledge of the subject area.
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I'm fairly versed in maths and statistics thank you very much.

I note no substantive reply to the blatant truth of the thought experiment.


Its a f**king slow motion car crash and I'm alarmed that Bozo thinks that preparing for an acceptance* of 20% of workforce being infected constitutes effective policy.


*edit for clarity: Preparing the public - never mind preparing the NHS - I've already demonstrated in less than 2 minutes why preparing the NHS for that degree of outbreak is an impossible task.
 
Further to earlier.

At the moment, based on Chinese studies; 80% of cases are mild, 14% severe and 5% critical.
Severe being breathing difficulties, low blood oxygen or other lung problems.
Critical being respiratory failure, shock or multiple organ dysfunction.


If the UK is looking at:

8.3m of those 16-67 contracting it at any one time (proportion of workforce as per Bozo).
640,000 of long term sick/retired contracting it (same 20% proportion extrapolated from Bozo's statement).

5% of the latter is still 32,000 people. That is approximately 20-25% of NHS England's entire bed capacity.

That doesn't include the percentage of workforce needing acute care, or kids. Or those in the severe category. It also doesn't consider that those in the severe category will undoubtedly be needing acute care for longer than those with mild symptoms and "off from work".


You'd have to be very confident in your modelling techniques to veer far from a study of actual numbers derived a matter of weeks ago on a virus which is extremely young and not well understood.

As someone with an extensive background in numerical modelling; I certainly wouldn't be placing much confidence in modelled numbers right now.
 

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