[COVID-19] General Discussion

[Yoshimitsu]

*slowly un-bejazzles his face masks*

You just need to be really careful that it isn't too heavy or a giant man of the travelling fraternity might beat the **** out of you............

 

[Leinster Fan]

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/hea...r-two-weeks-as-student-has-covid-19-1.4189537

Confirmed case in Ireland now (which was inevitable), from a skiing trip over midterm. School in question closed for two weeks.

 

[ncurd]

My friends very lengthy post on face-masks (this isn't their firs face-masks suck unless you know what your doing post) and what you should be doing instead,

So true. Leave the masks for fit tested and trained Healthcare workers who know how to use them, will have massively high exposure and who you will need to care for your loved ones who become seriously ill and need additional support.

All masks are also not equal, you need to know which ones are appropriate. Many people are buying and wearing inappropriate masks and are falsely reassured.

If you're out in the community then you need to:

1) undertake regular and good hand hygiene (I can post videos if you'd like). With this virus either alcohol gel (at least 70%) or soap and water are effective. Please don't use water alone. Practice this now, it's a good habit during any winter season.

Make sure you do this after being on public transport, after handling money etc

2) minimise face touching. This is no where near as easy as you think. Most studies show that people will unconsciously face touch about 60 times as hour. Eye rubbing is the worst for transmission but you can reduce it through practice. It may be time to be aware of your habits.

3) contact distancing. Evidence so far indicates spread is droplet based, this is normal for Coronaviruses. The advice therefore is to try and stay 2m apart to reduce exposure.

It is not an easy thing to maintain distance and is probably not necessary right now but start thinking about how close you get to people.

On public transport you will have little choice, but it may be time to stop hugging as a normal part of greeting and cheek kissing. Some are suggesting that elbow bumps should be the new normal

If you share your space consider moving furniture to position it that little bit further apart.

4) carry tissues. It's the winter season, there are already lots of viruses out there. May sure you contain sneezes, cough into elbows to reduce and contamination. Ensure that you dispose of tissues and they dont sit around in pockets and bags. Make sure you decontaminate your hands after every event. Again this is general good practice and now is the time to start.

5) Finally and most importantly keep up if you can with the ever changing situation so you know if you are in a situation where you should be self isolating, if you've travelled to somewhere where you need to possibly alter you behaviour on return and adhere to public health requests.

Self isolating doesn't work if you do it apart from when you need to walk the dog etc. There's a lot at stake here so please understand you're being asked to do things that disrupt your life for a purpose. Your impact matters

 

[TRF_Olyy]

COBRA meeting finished but report/advisories not being published until tomorrow - hopefully there's some leaks before then

Sturgeon said they're not at the stage of needing to cancel events yet

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Six Nations have confirmed only Ireland vs Italy is postponed from the next round

 

[Amiga500]

Six Nations have confirmed only Ireland vs Italy is postponed from the next round

Bad call IMO.

It'll not look too clever if a rake of deaths are traced back to these matches which really should have been postponed a few months.

 

[Leinster Fan]

Bad call IMO.

It'll not look too clever if a rake of deaths are traced back to these matches which really should have been postponed a few months.

You're right, they shouldn't go ahead but I understand why they've done it.

I guess their concern is that the situation will be the same/worse in a few months and that they'll never end up playing the games. I do feel a bit sorry for the 6N here, the competition bankrolls the NH game, and while it's easy to criticise them for grabbing money everyone except England and France desperately needs it, or you're suddenly in big trouble.

I guess they can also argue that it's really the government's/health services job to shut them down, like the HSE did here. To be fair, it's not really their responsibility to call off games if the advice from the respective governments says they can go ahead.

That all said, they really shouldn't be played, and I'm happy the game in Ireland isn't going ahead. This isn't the sensible call.

 

[Amiga500]

I do feel a bit sorry for the 6N here, the competition bankrolls the NH game, and while it's easy to criticise them for grabbing money everyone except England and France desperately needs it, or you're suddenly in big trouble.

It does.

But how long can you reasonably expect the professional leagues to continue to play?

France have proposed stopping all events of over 5,000 people.

If that was replicated in the UK (and Hancock has mentioned similar to it in passing), that'd essentially mean the end of all P14, T14 & Premiership matches for this season.

Wouldn't be too hard for all clubs/unions to claim force majeure and pay the players a fraction of their full contracts while the game is suspended.


I'm now not expecting the HEC to finish this season - which is unfortunate as I already have a flight to Toulouse booked. I'll likely get a refund out of ERC.... not holding out much hope of O'Leary giving me my money back.

 

[ncurd]

UK cases are at 39...there is absolutely no reason to cancel any large events yet to do so is just a panic manuvere. Even cancelling the Italy matches is premature but you don't want to give fans in the regions that have been hit reasons to travel.

It is highly likely that cancelling of events will occur at some point but it will be the risk of exposure to the virus is likely not now when it is extremely low.


Plus from my understanding it is incredibly unlikely these matches will be able to be rearranged. If it does the UK and Ireland hard it's going to be 9-12 months of massive disruption.

 

[Johnny Storm]

Simple solution for the rest of the six nations is to play every game behind closed doors with no spectators. Televised coverage will be provided, so the game can be watched live.

All players and officials to be tested for Covid-19 before each game.

Red card for anybody who sneezes during a game.

 

[Amiga500]

UK cases are at 39...there is absolutely no reason to cancel any large events yet to do so is just a panic manuvere.

You do realise one unfortunate carrier going to a large event means that 39 could quite easily become 309 if not 3009 overnight?

Restricting the spread is best done early when its only a few. F**k about now with half measure and the genie will be out of the bottle - at that point there will be no putting it back.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

I'm just gonna take my advice from the Chief Medical Officer/NHS etc.
I've not seen a single expert in the UK call for a lockdown of any description at this level - I mean do you shut down the tube? Euston Station etc.?

 

[Which Tyler]

I've got a great deal of sympathy for the view that all meetings of 5k+ people, or whatever number is come to; should be cancelled (or played behind closed doors)
But those decisions are for the CMO, PHE and NHS - not for individual sports organisations who simply don't have the relevant expertise.

 

[Amiga500]

I'm just gonna take my advice from the Chief Medical Officer/NHS etc.

Do you honestly think you are hearing their unfettered opinion? Or would you agree its much more likely you are hearing their politically massaged opinion?

 

[TRF_Olyy]

That's a bit tinfoil for me - even if BoJos statement is political there's no one independently coming out and saying the opposite.

Doctors and medical professionals have a duty of care to people not to the government - I like to think that the leading experts wouldn't just toe the line because Matt Hancock et al don't want to harm their stock options, especially when you hear of Doctors etc. in China speaking out against their Government knowing full well they could be disappeared for the privilege.


As Which Tyler says: The CMO/NHS/PHE have more facts, figures, knowhow, knowledge and expertise than anyone else speculating about it.

 

[ncurd]

You do realise one unfortunate carrier going to a large event means that 39 could quite easily become 309 if not 3009 overnight?

Uh no because the pathology of the thing (which is not fully understood) actually makes that unlikely, its actual problematic factors go into spread of the virus post the event rather than actually at it. So 1 carrier infects 10 people around them then those 10 spread it 4-5 different locations around the country thus making it far more difficult to contain as an outbreak..

Anyway as others have pointed out I'll take my advice from experts in their field which I'm 99.9% sure if they felt going to large events was a massive issue they would be saying so. If not publicly very definitely, as undisclosed sources and privately to friends and family. From my understanding they seam to more worried about creating panics, knee jerk reactions and over sensationalisation by the media and politicians.

Many experts are on twitter and opening up on what they think now they have had time to analyse and understand the virus. Also now doing things like television and radio. I naturally recommend my friend (https://twitter.com/girlymicro) whom I'm less concerned about protecting now she is saying to share her facebook posts and was on 5Live this morning but other opinions are available but make sure its someone with actual, you know, knowledge....

 

[ncurd]

She also bemoaned 5Live naturally shared the clip of her talking about the bloody scary stuff....

 

[ncurd]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51718917

This also lines up with what my friend was saying a weeks back so I'm fairly confident of no grand conspiratorial cover up.

 

[Amiga500]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51718917

This also lines up with what my friend was saying a weeks back so I'm fairly confident of no grand conspiratorial cover up.

Your friend was saying this and downplaying the problem?!? I think perhaps they were trying to allay your fears or hadn't thought it through!


20% of the workforce at any one time. UK total population is 66.5m, total workforce is 41.6m.

So within the workforce that is 8.3m people off ill. Within the economically inactive, there are 3.2m people that are retired or sick. Lets be optimistic and say 20% of those get it (at any one time). That is ~640,000 people.

Its hard to estimate how many will require acute care, certainly of the workforce population you'd expect it to be relatively small to the retired/sick proportion; but given estimates are currently of death rates of around ~10% for 70+ year olds, you could safely assume at least 60,000 people at any one time require acute care.


Within the entirety of NHS England, there are less than 150,000 beds.

 

[Amiga500]

Uh no because the pathology of the thing (which is not fully understood) actually makes that unlikely, its actual problematic factors go into spread of the virus post the event rather than actually at it. So 1 carrier infects 10 people around them then those 10 spread it 4-5 different locations around the country thus making it far more difficult to contain as an outbreak..

So one person going to the game gets the tube or bus. That is the surrounding people at risk. They go to the pub before the game. Again, more people. They go to the ground, they go to the pub at the ground, they go to the pub after, the bus/tube after...

All of that is happening in packed areas where any sneeze is almost likely to result in droplets on someone nearby - directly or via a surface. Someone vigilant might be all right. Someone who were flippant about it 'ahh its just a cough' could rack up a large number of others infected in one large event.


... and that is before you consider some extremist lunatic that might have it and is actively trying to infect as many others as possible.