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[COVID-19] General Discussion
- Thread starter Amiga500
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How little training are these people doing if only 7 members of the squad / staff are being required to self isolate?
I believe Scotland women are an amateur set up. So it’s possible most the team didn’t have contact with her.
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Nice use of words.
keith daley
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Now that the Italy-England match has been postponed, I have cancelled my accomadation in Rome and got 50% back, don't suppose I'll get anything back from Easyjet as a) they haven't cancelled my flight and b) the F&CO have not issued a "do not travel to Rome" notice, so won't be able to claim on my travel insurance if I cancel the flights.
My ticket supplier in Italy has assured me that I will either get a full refund of the match ticket or renew the ticket for whenever the match is played, so that's something.
All in all, looks like I'll be around £600 out of pocket, just because the Foreign Office won't pull their fingers out.
Keith
My ticket supplier in Italy has assured me that I will either get a full refund of the match ticket or renew the ticket for whenever the match is played, so that's something.
All in all, looks like I'll be around £600 out of pocket, just because the Foreign Office won't pull their fingers out.
Keith
I mean I'd still talk to your travel insurance company they may tell you to sod off but as your reasons for traveling have been cancelled and it was out your control you might be due something.
Worst that that will happen is they'll tell you no.
Worst that that will happen is they'll tell you no.
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This
When I was considering cancelling my trip to Japan I saw a bunch of people on Reddit managed to claim back because they could prove that things they were going for were cancelled (Disneyland etc) so their trip was ruined.
Ugh. You do realise that with the agreement being signed we are in the transition phase.
If there had been no deal, as Boris was perfectly happy to do, then things would have been very different.
To pharaphrase Spock with regards democracy; "The ignorance of the many are greater than the knowledge of the few."
Amazing isn't it.
Wonder how long the FCO would wait till advising not to travel?
Bozo is in control. Italy are locking down half their country as we speak, with the other half likely to lock down next week too, but Britain's finest in Whitehall are still bumbling about trying to prevent a run on loo roll in Tesco.
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French media seem to be reporting France Ireland is off.
RTÉ now reporting it too.
Also calls into question the HEC, can't see us playing Toulouse in a few weeks time either.
BBC now reporting it as confirmed by the French sports minister.
UK government saying its not changing its policy and does expect to start cancelling sporting events in the immediate future.
Suggests we might get past this weekend (Cheltenham currently occurring as well, which feels a bit mad but too much money in it for those running the event to stop without government intervention and if they were to cancel that it would require shutting many other events) but expect changes short to mid-term.
I guess 6 nations wise with the only game occuring in the UK being internal its not a huge worry.
Suggests we might get past this weekend (Cheltenham currently occurring as well, which feels a bit mad but too much money in it for those running the event to stop without government intervention and if they were to cancel that it would require shutting many other events) but expect changes short to mid-term.
I guess 6 nations wise with the only game occuring in the UK being internal its not a huge worry.
UK Government are still saying this is still the advice they've been given. Yet to see anything that contradicts that.
https://twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung/status/1236999314205007874
https://twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung/status/1236999314205007874
So is the plan to wait till it does spread en-mass at a big event then cancel them from that point onward?
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/c...11184164_optimised-uk_cases_byday_8mar-nc.png
Does the wee bar have to hit a threshold before they decide it might be worthwhile trying to reduce the potential for it jumping four or fivefold overnight?
We are currently running at an average increase of 35% every day.
By this time next week (16th), we are looking at 3,000 cases in the UK.
By this time 2 weeks (23rd), we are looking at 24,500 cases in the UK.
Assuming ~10% of cases needing critical care (which based on Italy is optimistic), and there being < 4500 critical care beds across the UK, with only around 20% of those available at any one time, by the 18th of March the NHS will be at breaking point.
By the 24th March, even if every existing ICU bed could be cleared of its current patient, the NHS couldn't cope.
Temporary beds will alleviate the pressure a bit. But by 31st of March we're looking at 270,000 cases with perhaps 27,000 of those needing critical care.
So just what the f**k are they waiting on before trying more drastic measures to slow down the spread?
[Even by removing outliers in the statistics, the growth rate is still 30% per day]
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/c...11184164_optimised-uk_cases_byday_8mar-nc.png
Does the wee bar have to hit a threshold before they decide it might be worthwhile trying to reduce the potential for it jumping four or fivefold overnight?
We are currently running at an average increase of 35% every day.
By this time next week (16th), we are looking at 3,000 cases in the UK.
By this time 2 weeks (23rd), we are looking at 24,500 cases in the UK.
Assuming ~10% of cases needing critical care (which based on Italy is optimistic), and there being < 4500 critical care beds across the UK, with only around 20% of those available at any one time, by the 18th of March the NHS will be at breaking point.
By the 24th March, even if every existing ICU bed could be cleared of its current patient, the NHS couldn't cope.
Temporary beds will alleviate the pressure a bit. But by 31st of March we're looking at 270,000 cases with perhaps 27,000 of those needing critical care.
So just what the f**k are they waiting on before trying more drastic measures to slow down the spread?
[Even by removing outliers in the statistics, the growth rate is still 30% per day]
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Sure...look I'm not going round the roundabouts with you again on this. Experts aren't contradicting the government, you think you know better than the experts, that pretty much much the end of argument for me.
The numbers speak for themselves.
If this is what the experts are recommending, they need to go look in the mirror.
If this is not what the experts are recommending and they are going along with it without saying a word, they need to look in the mirror.
The numbers in my last post don't lie. The current policy is leading straight to a national epidemic and collapse of the health service.
blah blah blah.....I know better.....thats all your posts amount to
seriously we aren't going to agree until experts speak out (at which point I'll join the bandwagon with you) however I will state this according to the experts an epidemic of some proportion is inevitable the entire policy is about minimising impact both economically and on the health service
I've attached a graph to illustrate what is being attempted. Your entire problem is that you assume an epidemic can be stopped or halted.
seriously we aren't going to agree until experts speak out (at which point I'll join the bandwagon with you) however I will state this according to the experts an epidemic of some proportion is inevitable the entire policy is about minimising impact both economically and on the health service
I've attached a graph to illustrate what is being attempted. Your entire problem is that you assume an epidemic can be stopped or halted.
Attachments
I agree with that being the realistic objective.
But in that previous post I indicated why at current rates the current approach is failing miserably at that.
Unless you believe that (i) the current case numbers are incorrect or (ii) there will be a change in infection rates due to some reason (please feel free to outline it) then its a matter of days from sh|t hitting the fan.
Just heard a rumour that in Italy they are triaging cases; if you are over a certain age or have an underlying condition, you aren't getting intensive care, but instead left on side wards to fight it off on your own while the intensive care beds are saved for younger patients. As you might suspect, survival rates aren't great there.
If we are a matter of days from the **** hitting the fan, these events will be cancelled before the weekend but they'll have limited X days of true panic. Because lets be honest the great soap and toilet roll shortages of 2020 is nothing when this stuff truly escalates.
But that also assumes the **** will hit the fans in terms of complete uncontrolled infection rate.
Lets look at us V Italy,
Italy were at 320 cases on 25th Feb about 2 weeks ago, however that was after 5 days of insane growth from 3. Where as the growth in the UK has been far more steady taking over a month (31 days) to go from the level Italy was to what it was 2 week ago.
On very surface level analysis (and I'd like to repeat I'm not an expert I have no idea how these models work) that suggests the virus is being controlled to some degree. We've just had the lowest confirmed increase in % for a week, whilst Italy haven't hot that low since their crisis started.
Now of course Italy's obviously were too slow to respond only really reaccting this weekend. We know if the UK waits too long we'll be in the same situation as Italy, I'm definitely expecting restrictions and advise at some point but I'm unsure if we need to hit the panic button yet.
To give a tiny bit more context the first confirmed cases in Italy and the UK were the same day.
allyson dalyon
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TAB Hypothesis: Three cheek kisses briefly makes you immune to the Coronavirus.
Rationale: In Italy they kiss twice as a greeting and they're ******, France they kiss three times and they're considerably less ******.
Stats
UK trend
Date: nCases
2020-02-27: 15
2020-02-28: 20
2020-02-29: 21
2020-03-01: 35
2020-03-02: 39
2020-03-03: 51
2020-03-04: 85
2020-03-05: 115
2020-03-06: 163
2020-03-07: 209
2020-03-08: 273
2020-03-09: 368
Yesterday was a 35% increase, which was higher than all but 6th, 4th & 1st March. Average is 35% growth day on day.
The UK avoided, probably more through luck than design, the fast explosion Italy had at the start, but since then growth is similar (from 23rd March onward, Italy's average growth has been 36% day on day).
If the UK had severe and strictly enforced quarantine, we might have kept it at the low levels seen initially.
I'd rather have a degree of panic and get on top of it early than try to avoid absolute panic and disaster later.
Where did you get 368 from? Its 319....
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-cases
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Templ...break_data/United_Kingdom_medical_cases_chart
Anyway a week ago you were saying extreme measures weren't required you just wanted sporting events cancelled.
Plus how is 319 cases anything but low levels? Its 0.000004% of the population and there are no concentrated areas.
Seriously get a grip, there's going to be a point where more extreme measures are required but at the moment they'd probably be an overeaction.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-cases
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Templ...break_data/United_Kingdom_medical_cases_chart
Anyway a week ago you were saying extreme measures weren't required you just wanted sporting events cancelled.
Plus how is 319 cases anything but low levels? Its 0.000004% of the population and there are no concentrated areas.
Seriously get a grip, there's going to be a point where more extreme measures are required but at the moment they'd probably be an overeaction.
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My issue is that there has been contradictory information from the authorities about whether there is community transmission or not. Clearly there is with people infected who haven't left the country, but it's not widespread yet. I don't think expert advice is unanimous at all. However it's a difficult job balancing protection and not causing panic. Time will tell if the government gets it right.
Has there been contradictory information? I thought the government through Matt Hancock had confirmed it.
Unaminous is incorrect terminology to what I'm saying nobody (as far as I'm aware) who could considered an expert is openly saying the government should be taking more extreme measures at this present time. That's very different to them agreeing with the current stance taken, at the moment it appears as a collective they have agreed to show a united front. I would not expect that to last forever but until it does even if they think the government is wrong they clearly do not feel it is that urgent to be the first to speak out.
I think short term critical thing to look out for are the 500 case and 1000 case mark, how soon they occur or if they sudden spike in a condensed area. Those are potential trigger points.
