[2024 Six Nations] Ireland v Wales - 14:15, Lansdowne Road

[dirty harry]

Feel like you're on the wind up here, the asterisk comment more or less confirms it. Good effort.

If you're as old as the hills and/or value lucky World Cup draws over wins against the world's best teams you might look down on Irish rugby's achievements as a Welsh fan. But truthfully no one can really look at the pro era as a whole and think Wales are the big dogs in this rivalry.

Hahaha it was a bit tongue in cheek, I'd never put an actual asterix next to a ***le, but you have to admit for a lot of reasons 2023 only 2 teams were really competing for the 6N ***le. Similar to SA RWC in 2019, it was the easiest run to a final in the history of a competition.

You say Wales arent the big dog, but Wales have won more GS's since the turn of the century 4 to 3, more ***les 6 to 5? Wales have made 2 RWC semis and were desperately unlucky not to win them.

Ireland are the form team, but I dont think theres much between this Ireland team and 2019 Wales, beating NZ is great, except when it counts most. Both world number 1, on a huge run without loss, and went into RWC in with a shout.

Ireland are a few wins ahead in the head to head this century, maybe gives them an edge.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Hahaha it was a bit tongue in cheek, I'd never put an actual asterix next to a ***le, but you have to admit for a lot of reasons 2023 only 2 teams were really competing for the 6N ***le. Similar to SA RWC in 2019, it was the easiest run to a final in the history of a competition.

Could also be that it was the first time the 1 and 2 ranked teams in the world were playing the 6 nations. Probably a middle ground there somewhere.

You say Wales arent the big dog, but Wales have won more GS's since the turn of the century 4 to 3, more ***les 6 to 5? Wales have made 2 RWC semis and were desperately unlucky not to win them.

Wales have also had an enviable run of meeting middling NH teams in World Cup QFs. 2011 Wales were the weakest team Ireland have ever drawn imo and that's with Ireland topping three of their last four pools. I think it's fair to say 2011 Wales were better than 2011 Ireland (obviously), 2019 France and 2023 Argentina.

But that and the 6n are definitely marks in Wales' favour.

Ireland are the form team, but I dont think theres much between this Ireland team and 2019 Wales, beating NZ is great, except when it counts most. Both world number 1, on a huge run without loss, and went into RWC in with a shout.

Do you not think that not beating NZ is a pretty big black mark? Easy to dismiss it when it doesn't matter (although that doesn't apply to a test series) but not being able to beat them at home when it doesn't matter to them? I think that's at least as bad as the QF run Ireland are on.

Don't agree re Wales in 19 being as good as 22/23 Ireland but I also don't think we'll make any ground arguing it either.

Ireland are a few wins ahead in the head to head this century, maybe gives them an edge.

Pretty much how I think about it and add in general win% (I'd guess France are the only team Wales have beaten more than Ireland have in the pro era? England is probably close but we've had a few very strong runs against them)

I think a lot of what Ireland have done since 2022 gives them the edge, had you asked me the same Q at the start of 2020 and I'd have said Wales though, too big a gulf in silverware and WC performance. Now I think that NZ tour win is bigger than a grand slam.

If I could add in that we've achieved everything whilst being first class bottlers and also the provincial trophy haul I would but we'll say that's out of scope.

It's an interesting topic, throw France and England into the mix and gets really fun. How many slams equals the World Cup (probably none realistically)? Does Craig Joubert cancel out the joy France takes in helping their opponents beat them? How many extra points do each get for making Gregor Townsends life miserable?

 

[Groundhog]

IRELAND (possible v Wales): Ciarán Frawley (Leinster); Calvin Nash (Munster), Robbie Henshaw (Leinster), Bundee Aki (Connacht), James Lowe (Leinster); Jack Crowley (Munster), Jamison Gibson-Park (Leinster); Andrew Porter (Leinster), Dan Sheehan (Leinster), Tadhg Furlong (Leinster); Joe McCarthy (Leinster), Tadhg Beirne (Munster); Peter O'Mahony (Munster, capt), Josh van der Flier (Leinster), Caealan Doris (Leinster).

Replacements: Rónan Kelleher (Leinster), Cian Healy (Leinster), Finlay Bealham (Connacht)/Oli Jager (Munster), James Ryan (Leinster), Ryan Baird (Leinster), Jack Conan (Leinster), Conor Murray (Munster), Stuart McCloskey (Ulster).

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

McCloskey would be a very rogue back to go with in that 6:2 split, right? If Crowley went down you'd end up with 10. Frawley 11. Lowe 12. McCloskey 13. Aki 14. Nash 15. Henshaw, right? Which is a pretty serious cluster****. And if a wing went down you'd probably have to shift Henshaw there?

Think you'd be much better off just going 5:3.

 

[Smurfy]

All reports say Ringrose is fit, so I'd be very surprised if he doesn't get a bench spot at least especially with England up next. With Larmour being a bit **** last week he could go 6/2 but it would still be a bit of a shock to do it against Wales.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

IRELAND (possible v Wales): Ciarán Frawley (Leinster); Calvin Nash (Munster), Robbie Henshaw (Leinster), Bundee Aki (Connacht), James Lowe (Leinster); Jack Crowley (Munster), Jamison Gibson-Park (Leinster); Andrew Porter (Leinster), Dan Sheehan (Leinster), Tadhg Furlong (Leinster); Joe McCarthy (Leinster), Tadhg Beirne (Munster); Peter O'Mahony (Munster, capt), Josh van der Flier (Leinster), Caealan Doris (Leinster).

Replacements: Rónan Kelleher (Leinster), Cian Healy (Leinster), Finlay Bealham (Connacht)/Oli Jager (Munster), James Ryan (Leinster), Ryan Baird (Leinster), Jack Conan (Leinster), Conor Murray (Munster), Stuart McCloskey (Ulster).

That back line is slower than slow

 

[Amiga500]

Think you'd be much better off just going 5:3.

Definitely.

6:2 bench and you quite conceivably run the risk of losing the match if the wrong injuries happen.

Can't see Wales beating us without some niche circumstance like that, maybe a red card.

 

[Jimbo]

Without Keenan does JVP & Lowe all of a sudden become so important the backline fails to function without one of them?

 

[dirty harry]

Could also be that it was the first time the 1 and 2 ranked teams in the world were playing the 6 nations. Probably a middle ground there somewhere.

Wales have also had an enviable run of meeting middling NH teams in World Cup QFs. 2011 Wales were the weakest team Ireland have ever drawn imo and that's with Ireland topping three of their last four pools. I think it's fair to say 2011 Wales were better than 2011 Ireland (obviously), 2019 France and 2023 Argentina.

But that and the 6n are definitely marks in Wales' favour.


Do you not think that not beating NZ is a pretty big black mark? Easy to dismiss it when it doesn't matter (although that doesn't apply to a test series) but not being able to beat them at home when it doesn't matter to them? I think that's at least as bad as the QF run Ireland are on.

Don't agree re Wales in 19 being as good as 22/23 Ireland but I also don't think we'll make any ground arguing it either.

Pretty much how I think about it and add in general win% (I'd guess France are the only team Wales have beaten more than Ireland have in the pro era? England is probably close but we've had a few very strong runs against them)

I think a lot of what Ireland have done since 2022 gives them the edge, had you asked me the same Q at the start of 2020 and I'd have said Wales though, too big a gulf in silverware and WC performance. Now I think that NZ tour win is bigger than a grand slam.

If I could add in that we've achieved everything whilst being first class bottlers and also the provincial trophy haul I would but we'll say that's out of scope.

It's an interesting topic, throw France and England into the mix and gets really fun. How many slams equals the World Cup (probably none realistically)? Does Craig Joubert cancel out the joy France takes in helping their opponents beat them? How many extra points do each get for making Gregor Townsends life miserable?

Ye your not wrong, there are a lot of argument s either way.

In Wales defence, professionalism came to Wales 10 years after everyone else, and also to Wales defence the Irish dont have to deal with the WRU, when your governing body hates the game as much as ours does it's a difficult barrier lol.

I will say, the 6N for me is always at it's best when there are 4 strong teams competing, 2010 -2020 was good for that, 4 different GS champs, all 4 teams beating each other each year...

Currently, with Wales and Italy being a mile off everyone else, Englands mediocrity, and Scotlands revival stagnating at nearly men, there really is only 2 viable options. Fingers crossed things can pick up, too many games have become too predictable IMHO.

I can only think of a few games that could go either way:

Wales v Italy
Ireland v France
Scotland v England
England v France?!?!?!

That's pretty sad in a tournament that lacks momentum in general, 3/4 questionable games in 15.

 

[dirty harry]

Definitely.

6:2 bench and you quite conceivably run the risk of losing the match if the wrong injuries happen.

Can't see Wales beating us without some niche circumstance like that, maybe a red card.

Mahony shoulder charge into a ruck?!

TBH even with a 3rd minute red, Ireland would still be too strong.

Maybe if Mahony gets into it with Lowe and Furlong, Crawley steps in to break it up and all 4 get red carded...

Then I give Wales a 50% shot at the win

 

[Jimbo]

Ye your not wrong, there are a lot of argument s either way.

In Wales defence, professionalism came to Wales 10 years after everyone else, and also to Wales defence the Irish dont have to deal with the WRU, when your governing body hates the game as much as ours does it's a difficult barrier lol.

I will say, the 6N for me is always at it's best when there are 4 strong teams competing, 2010 -2020 was good for that, 4 different GS champs, all 4 teams beating each other each year...

Currently, with Wales and Italy being a mile off everyone else, Englands mediocrity, and Scotlands revival stagnating at nearly men, there really is only 2 viable options. Fingers crossed things can pick up, too many games have become too predictable IMHO.

I can only think of a few games that could go either way:

Wales v Italy
Ireland v France
Scotland v England
England v France?!?!?!

That's pretty sad in a tournament that lacks momentum in general, 3/4 questionable games in 15.

Agree is much better when 4 teams are evenly matched, think your being a bit kind to England, on the evidence we have seen this tournament there is no daylight between England, Wales and Italy, England could have easily lost both games and spent most of the games behind, the only real positive is finishing relatively strong and actually coming back which has been absent for a while. Ireland and France are a country mile ahead, France probably lacking a few key personnel and suffering post WC disappointment but everything suggests they will be right up there competing with Ireland again before to long they have too much depth and talent coming through not to be, Scotland stuck between the two camps really.

 

[dirty harry]

Agree is much better when 4 teams are evenly matched, think your being a bit kind to England, on the evidence we have seen this tournament there is no daylight between England, Wales and Italy, England could have easily lost both games and spent most of the games behind, the only real positive is finishing relatively strong and actually coming back which has been absent for a while. Ireland and France are a country mile ahead, France probably lacking a few key personnel and suffering post WC disappointment but everything suggests they will be right up there competing with Ireland again before to long they have too much depth and talent coming through not to be, Scotland stuck between the two camps really.

I think that's unfair on England, they had large elements of control despite the scoreboard, and they're making tactical changes. Realistically neither result was in doubt, the disappointing element was not closing the games out better and working the scoreboard.
England have a leg up on Wales and Italy. I tip them to beat Scotland as well.

I think as an Ireland fan I'd be concerned about judging this Irish teams ability, Wales and England have regressed, Wales massively. Italy are adrift as usual, Scotland have stagnated with a limited squad, but have actually gained ground in the tournament as a whole. So are Ireland the world beating team they were over the last 18 months? Or has the level of competition dropped significantly enough to make them look better.

That said, I also think NZ and Aus have regressed also, so maybe we've just entered a doldrum time in rugby union, where Ireland, France and Ireland are the few teams who have maintained performance levels.

 

[Jimbo]

I think that's unfair on England, they had large elements of control despite the scoreboard, and they're making tactical changes. Realistically neither result was in doubt, the disappointing element was not closing the games out better and working the scoreboard.
England have a leg up on Wales and Italy. I tip them to beat Scotland as well.

I think as an Ireland fan I'd be concerned about judging this Irish teams ability, Wales and England have regressed, Wales massively. Italy are adrift as usual, Scotland have stagnated with a limited squad, but have actually gained ground in the tournament as a whole. So are Ireland the world beating team they were over the last 18 months? Or has the level of competition dropped significantly enough to make them look better.

That said, I also think NZ and Aus have regressed also, so maybe we've just entered a doldrum time in rugby union, where Ireland, France and Ireland are the few teams who have maintained performance levels.

Maybe some sense in that, what time frames are we going on NZ defiantly don't have the same aura they did but they certainly looked better during the WC than they did at any point I can remember in the WC cycle, it's certainly hard to tell with Ireland due to the relative drop in quality from most NH teams, don't think anyone predicted the dismantling of France, having said that no Dupont and playing much of the game with 14 was always going to be a tough win even at home.

 

[Welsh Exile]

Scott Robertson will get NZ back to undisputed number 1, win the next WC then leave NZ and sign a 30 year 22kpa contract with the WRU.

 

[BPM]

I could see Robertson making NZ better, but as much as it pains me to say it, I think SA will be hard to shift. They have a conveyer belt of talent that is significantly better than NZ's IMO.

Robertson is going to need to find talent to replace the likes of Whitelock, Rettalick, Aaron Smith etc. either immediately or early in the cycle and I'm not sure the players to do that are obvious ATM?

This is similar but not as acute for Ireland, whereas the French seem to be churning out top players all the time.

 

[dirty harry]

Maybe some sense in that, what time frames are we going on NZ defiantly don't have the same aura they did but they certainly looked better during the WC than they did at any point I can remember in the WC cycle, it's certainly hard to tell with Ireland due to the relative drop in quality from most NH teams, don't think anyone predicted the dismantling of France, having said that no Dupont and playing much of the game with 14 was always going to be a tough win even at home.

I think they were better yes, but still not a world beating team. Beating Ireland in that quarter literally took everything they had.

It's no secret rugby in NZ are struggling, and with them losing sole access to Pacific island talent they really have lost the aura they held for a century.

So, why is rugby union at such a low point? Have all but 3 top teams regressed, or is the style that is proving successful just unreplicatable.

If you take the top 3 teams, their tactics arent anything new or innovative, there isnt anything their doing much different than anyone else, it seems to be power, kicking and efficiency in taking chances.

Do Wales have to employ programmes like Scotland and Ireland do and cast their net wider to find SH talent?

 

[dirty harry]

I could see Robertson making NZ better, but as much as it pains me to say it, I think SA will be hard to shift. They have a conveyer belt of talent that is significantly better than NZ's IMO.

Robertson is going to need to find talent to replace the likes of Whitelock, Rettalick, Aaron Smith etc. either immediately or early in the cycle and I'm not sure the players to do that are obvious ATM?

This is similar but not as acute for Ireland, whereas the French seem to be churning out top players all the time.

Well Ireland dont have a a Willis and Fortuna type situation to funnel talent to naturalisation lol

Itll be had to look beyond SA and France for the foreseeable furute

 

[Welsh Exile]

Press conference from Gatland today to explain his decisions. I wonder if he'll challenge anyone to come down and fight Beard again.

 

[Welsh Exile]

From the snippets I've just read there was no question about Beards inclusion over Rowlands even though Howley said ask Gats. Bloody journos. They asked him why Costelow over Lloyd where Gats basically confirmed Costelow is our number 1 fly half moving forward.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

I think that's a mental selection. Really thin for pace and back three cover. Brings Wales into it tbh.