A Political Thread pt. 2

[General Melchett]

Three visits to Caerphilly including a day of campaigning from Farage still not enough to get the W.

Bad news for Starmer as Labour candidates will be feeling even more uneasy about retaining their seats in future elections while he's at the helm.

 

[General Melchett]

I came across a post from the Reform branch in Scotland and share it if I manage to find it again. It basically said "Reform don't believe in election manifestos. We believe in following principles" which it then listed.

In other words, we don't want to be held accountable for broken promises and so we won't make any promises at all. Absolutely insane how people can blindly put their faith in such a shower.

 

[Welsh Exile]

I came across a post from the Reform branch in Scotland and share it if I manage to find it again. It basically said "Reform don't believe in election manifestos. We believe in following principles" which it then listed.

In other words, we don't want to be held accountable for broken promises and so we won't make any promises at all. Absolutely insane how people can blindly put their faith in such a shower.

I think it’s that but it’s also they probably don’t have any ideas other than “stop the boats” it’s back of a fag packet type of stuff really.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Labour adopted the brilliant strategy of ******* off their base to chase people who'd never vote for them anyway.

 

[General Melchett]

I think it's that but it's also they probably don't have any ideas other than "stop the boats" it's back of a fag packet type of stuff really.

I suspect that PM Farage will be bought and paid for and in the pocket of the next MAGA POTUS. The UK will be like Belarus. If a Democrat somehow wins the Whitehouse we'll be even more isolated in Europe. Lose lose under Reform.

 

[Welsh Exile]

I suspect that PM Farage will be bought and paid for and in the pocket of the next MAGA POTUS. The UK will be like Belarus. If a Democrat somehow wins the Whitehouse we'll be even more isolated in Europe. Lose lose under Reform.

At least he has no links to Putin and has never complimented him or been on Russian TV or anything.

Oh wait.

 

[Saintjay]

I came across a post from the Reform branch in Scotland and share it if I manage to find it again. It basically said "Reform don't believe in election manifestos. We believe in following principles" which it then listed.

In other words, we don't want to be held accountable for broken promises and so we won't make any promises at all. Absolutely insane how people can blindly put their faith in such a shower.

That's the problem in a nutshell. People put faith in the big two parties and they've had enough.

If Labour take heavy losses in Wales, they are reliant on England. Traditional red wall Labour seats possibley swing to Reform. The south swing Lib Dems. Then it's a dog fight at the GE.

Labour have time to turn it around but how is anyone's guess. With Dr's striking again, the grooming inquiry being a dumpster fire, one in one out looking a joke. Nothing seems to be going right for them..

 

[General Melchett]

Labour have time to turn it around but how is anyone's guess. With Dr's striking again, the grooming inquiry being a dumpster fire, one in one out looking a joke. Nothing seems to be going right for them..

Labour's main and perhaps only trump card is a leadership change. I don't think initiatives like the 'one in one out' will make much difference and persuade people to come back and vote for them. For me it was unthinkable not so long ago but it wouldn't surprise me if Starmer is gone if Labour get a tonking in next year's elections.

British politics feels very unstable at the moment. So many destabilising forces (both internal and external). If Reform win the next GE I think their support will also unravel pretty fast. Voters are more fickle than ever and have no patience. It's one big protest vote after another.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

Labour need a miracle to win next election, my best hope is a hung parliament.
I reckon Burnham will prob look to oust Starmer next election, Green is showing there is support if you look at the left. Burnham I feel like would do a better job at getting the working class vote and the middle England left vote

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Another distinct possibility is that nobody comes out on top and votes are split between multiple parties requiring a coalition.

 

[dirty harry]

They don't actually know who leaked the video so the 4 firings are likely not related to that, despite the claims. The council leader has apparently got Reform counsellors to sign a ******* pledge of loyalty to her. It's utterly insane. It does seem though that the best argument to Reform being in power is looking at those who are. Genuinely a shitshow across the board. I can't think of a single thing associated with Reform that isn't turning into a complete mess.

Polling?

 

[dirty harry]

Plaid Cymru by-election winner sworn in at Welsh Parliament after historic ousting of Labour

"We have put Caerphilly on the map," says Lindsay Whittle after beating Labour and Reform UK to represent the area.

www.bbc.co.uk

Good result for PC - polls yesterday had reform winning by 4%, but PC ended up winning by 11%

Hopefully the predictions for the rest of the country are as out of wack

Once again, this is not the win you think it is.

A century of Labour domination undone by by a stalwart who has run unsuccessfully 13 times in a row, but managed to whip up enough mobilisation to pip Reform whos candidate isnt a Caerphilly local, moved there a few years ago and spent the last year not there lol.

Bad news for Powell, great news for Farage, seeing the most untouchable areas being contested.

Labour lose another seat in the Senydd, a bit further from majority and well after the last few weeks all the signs of a Tory style crash for Labour are there.

Be careful celebrating hollow victories, it will blind you to the danger that is incoming!

 

[Welsh Exile]

Once again, this is not the win you think it is.

A century of Labour domination undone by by a stalwart who has run unsuccessfully 13 times in a row, but managed to whip up enough mobilisation to pip Reform whos candidate isnt a Caerphilly local, moved there a few years ago and spent the last year not there lol.

Bad news for Powell, great news for Farage, seeing the most untouchable areas being contested.

Labour lose another seat in the Senydd, a bit further from majority and well after the last few weeks all the signs of a Tory style crash for Labour are there.

Be careful celebrating hollow victories, it will blind you to the danger that is incoming!

What is incoming?

 

[dirty harry]

What is incoming?

Reform.

I see too much media framing this as a black eye to Farage, but it certainly isnt.

500 votes, then 7k votes, now 12k votes 1 year later, in a century long held Labour seat, in a Labour dominant country is an absokute victory.

The other concerning factors, are that turnout was 50% just 2% less than last year. That high turnout is almost guarenteed to be an anti Reform mobilisation, and Labour lost 11k votes within 12 months. PC havnt picked up all those votes, so either theyve stepped away, or Reform have hoovered some up.

i think theres going to have to be a lot of policicking in certain areas to continually keep Reform out, theyre are running everyone close when they dont win.

 

[Welsh Exile]

Reform.

I see too much media framing this as a black eye to Farage, but it certainly isnt.

500 votes, then 7k votes, now 12k votes 1 year later, in a century long held Labour seat, in a Labour dominant country is an absokute victory.

The other concerning factors, are that turnout was 50% just 2% less than last year. That high turnout is almost guarenteed to be an anti Reform mobilisation, and Labour lost 11k votes within 12 months. PC havnt picked up all those votes, so either theyve stepped away, or Reform have hoovered some up.

i think theres going to have to be a lot of policicking in certain areas to continually keep Reform out, theyre are running everyone close when they dont win.

Majority government?

To be fair most people on here seem pretty pessimistic and expect a reform government of some sort.

 

[dirty harry]

Majority government?

To be fair most people on here seem pretty pessimistic and expect a reform government of some sort.

Hopefully not, but if we delude ourselves, that Caerphilly is a victory over them, then it might just happen.

 

[Welsh Exile]

Hopefully not, but if we delude ourselves, that Caerphilly is a victory over them, then it might just happen.

Is anyone deluding themselves though or are you just making that bit up? I appreciate you might be concerned with peoples well being but I'm not seeing anyone assuming that result means Reform aren't going to be a serious problem come the next election.

My personal view is that it's a fools game making political predictions these days. 3 months is a long time in politics let alone 3 years.

 

[dirty harry]

"Three visits to Caerphilly including a day of campaigning from Farage still not enough to get the W."

"Hopefully the predictions for the rest of the country are as out of wack"

These comment seem to suggest that dont you think?

Not to mention delusion like this:

Reform swaggered into Caerphilly, ready for a coronation. An unpleasant surprise lay in store | Will Hayward

Predictions of a Reform win were wide of the mark. But Labour’s crushing byelection defeat offers important lessons too, says Guardian columnist Will Hayward

www.theguardian.com

This was a loss for Powell but very much a trend Farage is happy to see.

 

[Welsh Exile]

"Three visits to Caerphilly including a day of campaigning from Farage still not enough to get the W."

"Hopefully the predictions for the rest of the country are as out of wack"

These comment seem to suggest that dont you think?

Not to mention delusion like this:

Reform swaggered into Caerphilly, ready for a coronation. An unpleasant surprise lay in store | Will Hayward

Predictions of a Reform win were wide of the mark. But Labour’s crushing byelection defeat offers important lessons too, says Guardian columnist Will Hayward

www.theguardian.com

This was a loss for Powell but very much a trend Farage is happy to see.

Not at all. The first is just a statement of fact. It doesn’t say anything about any futures wins.

The key word in the second was hopefully

 

[TRF_Olyy]

"Three visits to Caerphilly including a day of campaigning from Farage still not enough to get the W."

"Hopefully the predictions for the rest of the country are as out of wack"

These comment seem to suggest that dont you think?

Not to mention delusion like this:

Reform swaggered into Caerphilly, ready for a coronation. An unpleasant surprise lay in store | Will Hayward

Predictions of a Reform win were wide of the mark. But Labour’s crushing byelection defeat offers important lessons too, says Guardian columnist Will Hayward

www.theguardian.com

This was a loss for Powell but very much a trend Farage is happy to see.

Your reading comprehension is in the ******* toilet