It seems the more someone looks at Ukraine and its relations in the world the less they will understand. It is a mess!
The points I'd be more confident on are:
- there is no credible suggestion that any nation west of the Russian border poses any threat to Russian territorial integrity. I cannot see how Russia can even attempt to play the victim card with a straight face (and looking at the laughing foreign minister Lavrov, I don't think they even try to be serious)
- Ukraine could probably re-take Donbas if Russia doesn't interfere. Donbas is clear Ukrainian sovereign territory and no viable Ukranian government could ever not have a policy of reclaiming Donbas (whereas Crimea you can have a discussion and the Ukrainian president states they cannot retake that until there is regime change in Moscow)
- Russia would not wish to lose influence over Donbas because they most likely think it can become a puppet state over the long term.
- the most popular political actors in Ukraine (Zelensky and Poroshenko) are both pretty disgusted with Russian conduct and more aligned to seeking a future closer ties to the EU and NATO. They are also both fairly credible individuals, not terrible at least. The political will in Ukraine to align with Russia is effectively dead since the revolution to overthrow pro-Russian Yanuchovich.
- Ukraine is geographically quite an easy place to conquer for anyone with a superior military. It doesn't have mountainous areas in key defensive positions.
- there is potentially enough remaining Russian sentiment to install puppet regime loyal to Russia over all of Ukraine and impose its will by deadly force over Ukrainians
- by making remarks that there is 'genocide' in Ukraine (no evidence) Mr Putin is making it very clear he considers Russian intervention in Ukraine justified. Recent Ukraine governments have sought to strengthen the role of the Ukrainian language, but almost every state does this.
- by invading Crimea and Donbas, Putin has brought a heavy price on Russians via the resulting sanctions. Russian GDP per capita has fallen by around 40% after 2014 and is now lower than all EU nations other than Bulgaria. The motivations for these military actions are not economic and it is hard to see how they are in the interests of the Russian people.
- with the way the USSR moved large populations around its territory we have significant Russian speaking minorities in the territories of the Baltic states and Moldova. If the EU and US do nothing over Ukraine, these other countries become at risk.
- there is no way the EU or US can credibly forbid Ukraine from membership of the EU or NATO. Events from past decade shows the Ukraine is powerless without allies.
- the EU and UK are politically irrelevant. The EU nations have feeble militaries and the EU itself is politically neutral, has essentially no foreign policy and focussed on making money, the rule of law and respecting international boundaries within it's own borders. It doesn't care about external matters and other than France, almost none of its member states care either.
- the EU member states are strategically weakened by dependence on Russian gas, with large political opposition to nuclear and a slow uptake of electric powered heat pumps (outside of Scandinavia) rather than gas boilers.
- the nuclear weapon power of Russia, US and even UK and France is sensational. Weapons that are thousands of times more powerful than the bombs used in Japan have been tested and are a reality. They have sufficient blast radius to eviscerate a sprawling city with just one or two bombs.
The points I think are more questionable but are more likely than not are:
- Russia launched the recent cyber attacks on Ukraine (which Ukraine defended well enough)
- reports that Russia were recently planning a coup are credible
- Russia would have acted swiftly to invade Ukraine had the coup plot or cyber attack been more effective, and is now looking at other options.
- pro-Russian elements will have been behind the assassination attempts on Zelensky's advisor a year or so ago
- it would not be a surprise it Zelensky was to encounter an overnight near fatal health issue like former anti-Russian Ukraine leader Yuschenko back in 2004.
- the last president Poroshenko has returned to Ukraine following exile as a result of corruption charges. I hope this is a sign of solidarity between himself and Zelensky, but frankly who knows.
What I expect to see:
- some kind of fudged compromise to save face for the Russian government and avoid war (maybe withdrawal of missiles from NATO territory as happened with Turkey to defuse the Cuban missile crisis)
OR (around a 50% chance)
- some kind of invented crisis followed by Ukraine being occupied by the Russian government and a puppet regime installed, with them gambling it can insulate itself from sanctions or that sanctions would be cancelled early due to the EUs obsession with profitability.
Personally I think the EU response is appropriate with the limited cards it has. Essentially do nothing other than supply some limited defensive weaponry and commit to further sanctions in response to any further foul play. This stance avoids inflaming tensions and will make it more difficult for the Russian government to sell its message to other eastern European nations that its actions were defensible.
I also think the US response, although muddled, is appropriate. Russia cannot be certain that there wouldn't be an attempt to defend Kiev itself (probably with air power rather than ground troops).
I also think the Ukrainian government is handling matters very well and preventing any pretext for war by Russia (unlike Georgia previously, who messed up by being equally provocative).
If the diplomatic position does not improve then the next step is provocative military action by pro-Russian Donbas soldiers to try and instigate a response. Or an assassination attempt.