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A Political Thread pt. 2

Honestly, I don't think it'll happen (or not this way), but we'll see..or I hope it won't happen,at least :( I have a lot of relatives in Ukraine
I'm not sure on this one. Initially I thought it was Putin just trying the waters, seeing if he could get some NATO consessions until I found what those consessions were and realised that they were unrealistic. Thats kind of what countries do before they invade. Also the disunity among the West hasn't helped with Macron trying to push for a European settlement without the rest of NATO which is dangerous and stupid.

But then if Russia attack they do risk further economic problems, with loss of trade and the fact war is bloody expensive. I don't see this as the same as the Crimea. I do think Ukrainian forces will fight back although for how long I cannot be sure. The Russian army is now a very different one to the one of the 90s and has proven to be very effective.
 
Okay look like the FT won't let me share it direct

"Fraud is rampant - and no one in government is paying attention"
That seems overly harsh - plenty of people in government are paying very close attention to it; they're exploiting and profitting from the fraud, after all.
 
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Its Over GIF
 
I don't see this as the same as the Crimea.
It's very different to Crimea and,I think, aims are different (or at least were different), that's why I have doubts this invasion will happen. Plus, as you told, it's very expensive , will cause serious economic problems and will be complicated to justify. I'm not even talking about a moral aspect and that it's difficult to kill someone who you still consider a brother (for both sides).

Initially I thought it was Putin just trying the waters, seeing if he could get some NATO consessions until I found what those consessions were and realised that they were unrealistic.
Yes, I thought the same in the beginning. Also, Ukraine was gathering troops near Donbass borders and I thought it can be a "sign" that Russia will support Donbass immediately if Ukrainian troops start to take "strong actions" there. I don't know though, I'm not sure.. even was thinking the escalation can be somehow related to the Nord Stream 2.
I think NATO will make some concessions finally,but who knows what will happen..:( more troops gathered somewhere,more there's a possibility something bad will happen (even unintentionally). Scared to think about it :(
I do think Ukrainian forces will fight back although for how long I cannot be sure
Not for a long time I think,they don't have such resources :(

The Russian army is now a very different one to the one of the 90s and has proven to be very effective.
Yes, very different, that won't be the same as in Chechen wars
 


So real question of if this will delay report findings, which is what Johnson and cabinet colleagues have been hinging on (to buy time mainly). Unsure if this buys more time or if MP's just trigger the entire damn thing.

In the court of public opinion he is already very guilty and that is unlikely to change.
 


So no Sue Gray report this week and possible, that's going to be interesting...
 
Not sure how I feel about it tbh. I feel that if the police do charge anyone it won't be the prime minister, but a fall guy like his secretary. On top, he now has time for the public to forget about it and when the Sue Gray report is finally published, while it may make bad reading for Johnson he'll just shrug it off as the public have moved on.

Whole thing stinks tbh of a way to save Boris Johnson.
 
Not sure how I feel about it tbh. I feel that if the police do charge anyone it won't be the prime minister, but a fall guy like his secretary. On top, he now has time for the public to forget about it and when the Sue Gray report is finally published, while it may make bad reading for Johnson he'll just shrug it off as the public have moved on.

Whole thing stinks tbh of a way to save Boris Johnson.
Honestly no report is going to be the killing blow just a question of which story that breaks will get enough MPs to send their letters in.
 
It seems the more someone looks at Ukraine and its relations in the world the less they will understand. It is a mess!

The points I'd be more confident on are:
- there is no credible suggestion that any nation west of the Russian border poses any threat to Russian territorial integrity. I cannot see how Russia can even attempt to play the victim card with a straight face (and looking at the laughing foreign minister Lavrov, I don't think they even try to be serious)
- Ukraine could probably re-take Donbas if Russia doesn't interfere. Donbas is clear Ukrainian sovereign territory and no viable Ukranian government could ever not have a policy of reclaiming Donbas (whereas Crimea you can have a discussion and the Ukrainian president states they cannot retake that until there is regime change in Moscow)
- Russia would not wish to lose influence over Donbas because they most likely think it can become a puppet state over the long term.
- the most popular political actors in Ukraine (Zelensky and Poroshenko) are both pretty disgusted with Russian conduct and more aligned to seeking a future closer ties to the EU and NATO. They are also both fairly credible individuals, not terrible at least. The political will in Ukraine to align with Russia is effectively dead since the revolution to overthrow pro-Russian Yanuchovich.
- Ukraine is geographically quite an easy place to conquer for anyone with a superior military. It doesn't have mountainous areas in key defensive positions.
- there is potentially enough remaining Russian sentiment to install puppet regime loyal to Russia over all of Ukraine and impose its will by deadly force over Ukrainians
- by making remarks that there is 'genocide' in Ukraine (no evidence) Mr Putin is making it very clear he considers Russian intervention in Ukraine justified. Recent Ukraine governments have sought to strengthen the role of the Ukrainian language, but almost every state does this.
- by invading Crimea and Donbas, Putin has brought a heavy price on Russians via the resulting sanctions. Russian GDP per capita has fallen by around 40% after 2014 and is now lower than all EU nations other than Bulgaria. The motivations for these military actions are not economic and it is hard to see how they are in the interests of the Russian people.
- with the way the USSR moved large populations around its territory we have significant Russian speaking minorities in the territories of the Baltic states and Moldova. If the EU and US do nothing over Ukraine, these other countries become at risk.
- there is no way the EU or US can credibly forbid Ukraine from membership of the EU or NATO. Events from past decade shows the Ukraine is powerless without allies.
- the EU and UK are politically irrelevant. The EU nations have feeble militaries and the EU itself is politically neutral, has essentially no foreign policy and focussed on making money, the rule of law and respecting international boundaries within it's own borders. It doesn't care about external matters and other than France, almost none of its member states care either.
- the EU member states are strategically weakened by dependence on Russian gas, with large political opposition to nuclear and a slow uptake of electric powered heat pumps (outside of Scandinavia) rather than gas boilers.
- the nuclear weapon power of Russia, US and even UK and France is sensational. Weapons that are thousands of times more powerful than the bombs used in Japan have been tested and are a reality. They have sufficient blast radius to eviscerate a sprawling city with just one or two bombs.


The points I think are more questionable but are more likely than not are:
- Russia launched the recent cyber attacks on Ukraine (which Ukraine defended well enough)
- reports that Russia were recently planning a coup are credible
- Russia would have acted swiftly to invade Ukraine had the coup plot or cyber attack been more effective, and is now looking at other options.
- pro-Russian elements will have been behind the assassination attempts on Zelensky's advisor a year or so ago
- it would not be a surprise it Zelensky was to encounter an overnight near fatal health issue like former anti-Russian Ukraine leader Yuschenko back in 2004.
- the last president Poroshenko has returned to Ukraine following exile as a result of corruption charges. I hope this is a sign of solidarity between himself and Zelensky, but frankly who knows.

What I expect to see:
- some kind of fudged compromise to save face for the Russian government and avoid war (maybe withdrawal of missiles from NATO territory as happened with Turkey to defuse the Cuban missile crisis)
OR (around a 50% chance)
- some kind of invented crisis followed by Ukraine being occupied by the Russian government and a puppet regime installed, with them gambling it can insulate itself from sanctions or that sanctions would be cancelled early due to the EUs obsession with profitability.

Personally I think the EU response is appropriate with the limited cards it has. Essentially do nothing other than supply some limited defensive weaponry and commit to further sanctions in response to any further foul play. This stance avoids inflaming tensions and will make it more difficult for the Russian government to sell its message to other eastern European nations that its actions were defensible.

I also think the US response, although muddled, is appropriate. Russia cannot be certain that there wouldn't be an attempt to defend Kiev itself (probably with air power rather than ground troops).

I also think the Ukrainian government is handling matters very well and preventing any pretext for war by Russia (unlike Georgia previously, who messed up by being equally provocative).

If the diplomatic position does not improve then the next step is provocative military action by pro-Russian Donbas soldiers to try and instigate a response. Or an assassination attempt.
 
Honestly no report is going to be the killing blow just a question of which story that breaks will get enough MPs to send their letters in.
I think if showed that the PM was knowledgeable and complicit then it would with the current political and public mood. Push it back a few months and then no.
 
Sky are reporting that the Met Police are happy for the Sue Gray to be published in full this week but it's the Government who are blocking it claiming any elements relating to the police investigation shouldn't be published. What a shower of.....
 
Sky are reporting that the Met Police are happy for the Sue Gray to be published in full this week but it's the Government who are blocking it claiming any elements relating to the police investigation shouldn't be published. What a shower of.....
The met really need to come out and say that publically then
 
In no way is an active police investigation at no 10 good news for Bojo. Might change timings a bit but could also be enough to tip some more MPs over the edge. They'll also be able to access more information than Gray.

Cabinet apparently royally p*ssed off that Bojo didn't tell them about this at Cabinet meeting despite knowing beforehand that it was coming.

Police resources are scarce enough. So committing a strong team of detectives must say they have someone / something firmly in their sights.

And what triggered this?
 
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In no way is an active police investigation at no 10 good news for Bojo. Might change timings a bit but could also be enough to tip some more MPs over the edge. They'll also be able to access more information than Gray.

Cabinet apparently royally p*ssed off that Bojo didn't tell them about this at Cabinet meeting despite knowing beforehand that it was coming.
Apparently knew since last week, just waiting for this evening's paper news drop.

I still can't believe the Tory MP's haven't yet jettisoned him to the sun.
 

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