#TraitorTrump
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A Political Thread pt. 2
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This is where it gets ridiculous, you are arguing moral high ground rather than right or wrong. Also, let's just get one thing in black and white, do you think the regimes that were in Libya and Syria were similar to that in Ukraine? do you think the uprisings in both were similar to that in Ukraine? Do you think the military response has been similar? If the answer to all these is no then how can you argue they are similar? If yes, care to explain just how they are similar other than it being as I mentioned before where any invasion is an invasion so all invasions are equivalent?
You also seem content to ignore the many western nations who were not involved in Libya, Syria etc who condemn Russia and apparently decided their condemnation can be ignored. Also ignoring all the non-western nations who condemn Russia.
I wouldn't deny there is a fair bit of hypocrisy and corruption in the west, particularly the UK and USA on this issue. However I'd say THAT is what is really more irrelevant. What Russia is doing is still wrong and still needs a response. Would you have everyone sit back for fear of being hypocrites? I'd argue the biggest and most important hypocrisy is that Russian "investors" in London and the Tory party donors have all been shielded from the sanctions. The hypocrisy isn't that we are responding, it's that we aren't responding enough.
Harsh conditions mean Russian troops near Ukraine will need to be moved soon
Analysis: advance forces’ battle readiness will quickly degrade, giving Putin only days to choose invasion or retreat
Interesting article in the Guardian about the state of the Russian forces who are currently deployed. Being able to garrison and feed such a large force will always be a problem in the middle of a Ukrainian winter. Also looks like drinking and black market diesel selling is a bit of a problem but that's nothing new with squddies of any army.
Whatever Putin is going to do he needs to do it quickly.
Where the **** did I say the invasion of the Ukrainian is justified? Of course it isn't. Just like the invasion of Iraq, Libya along with interventions in other middle Eastern nations isn't justified.
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Where the **** did I say you said the invasion of Ukraine was justified? I put it right there in the bit you quoted "you are arguing moral high ground rather than right or wrong". I was getting you about pretending these events are all equivalent and we have lost our moral high ground because we did exactly the same as Russia is doing. There is a fair bit of hypocrisy yes but your claim that the circumstances etc are "irrelevant" was just flat out wrong, they are not the same.
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This article is in line with my initial assessment of relative optimism that Putin will stop at swapping out irregular Russian militias with formal Russian 'peacekeepers'. We have seen the Ukranian govt will not respond militarily to that and that the sanctions it has generated are comparatively mild (offering Putin an incentive to stop there).
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-crisis-where-will-putin-stop-2022-02-22/
Although I'm a little less confident having seen a reportedly Russian senior spy chief, apparently nervous as hell (probably for his own and family wellbeing), say he agrees with the proposal for separatist areas to be absorbed into the Russian Federation (comical scenes if this wasn't all so potentially horrific).
www.bbc.co.uk
Plus my assessment was based on the sanity and judgement of Putin, and his speech raises questionmarks over that and fanciful news of ongoing Ukrainian aggression against separatist territory appears to be continuing. This suggests a continued effort for a pretext for a declaration of war.
Some seem to have sympathy with Putin's claims of threats to Russian borders. I'd point out the Russian territory of Kaliningrad is surrounded on all sides by EU and NATO members. There has never been the slightest suggestion of intimidation or violent action against Kaliningrad (or any other Russian territory), just as there has never been the slightest credible suggestion of aggression by Ukraine towards Russian territory or Russian speakers within Ukraine.
If Putin truly believes rubbish like Ukraine never having been a nation-state then he may also believe the same of the Baltic states and crush them to join up territory with Kaliningrad (or with the Russian speaking enclave in Moldova). When logic and restraint are abandoned, all moves are possible and I think we are a bit harsh to suggest any political actors trying to help Ukraine and Eastern Europe in general have nefarious motivations. We've seen Japan come out with sanctions and places like Kenya denounce Putin's decision. Neither of them intend selling arms to Eastern Europe.
Just because a country royally screws up in some military actions it doesn't mean everything they do is tainted, particularly in democracies where governments change. . I try to assess each decision/conflict on it's own merits and a couple of wars in the 20th century suggests there is plenty merit in doing everything viable to try and stop an outbreak of war in Europe.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-crisis-where-will-putin-stop-2022-02-22/
Although I'm a little less confident having seen a reportedly Russian senior spy chief, apparently nervous as hell (probably for his own and family wellbeing), say he agrees with the proposal for separatist areas to be absorbed into the Russian Federation (comical scenes if this wasn't all so potentially horrific).
Vladimir Putin dresses down Russia's spy chief
Russian president presses Sergei Naryshkin during a meeting with top security officials.
www.bbc.co.uk
Plus my assessment was based on the sanity and judgement of Putin, and his speech raises questionmarks over that and fanciful news of ongoing Ukrainian aggression against separatist territory appears to be continuing. This suggests a continued effort for a pretext for a declaration of war.
Some seem to have sympathy with Putin's claims of threats to Russian borders. I'd point out the Russian territory of Kaliningrad is surrounded on all sides by EU and NATO members. There has never been the slightest suggestion of intimidation or violent action against Kaliningrad (or any other Russian territory), just as there has never been the slightest credible suggestion of aggression by Ukraine towards Russian territory or Russian speakers within Ukraine.
If Putin truly believes rubbish like Ukraine never having been a nation-state then he may also believe the same of the Baltic states and crush them to join up territory with Kaliningrad (or with the Russian speaking enclave in Moldova). When logic and restraint are abandoned, all moves are possible and I think we are a bit harsh to suggest any political actors trying to help Ukraine and Eastern Europe in general have nefarious motivations. We've seen Japan come out with sanctions and places like Kenya denounce Putin's decision. Neither of them intend selling arms to Eastern Europe.
Just because a country royally screws up in some military actions it doesn't mean everything they do is tainted, particularly in democracies where governments change. . I try to assess each decision/conflict on it's own merits and a couple of wars in the 20th century suggests there is plenty merit in doing everything viable to try and stop an outbreak of war in Europe.
Putin's problem is that having Ukraine in NATO could put US IRBMs within 450 km of Moscow. Ultimately, they don't believe the 1996 "three no's" commitment will continue.
That is less than the distance from Boston to D.C.
If the situation were reversed, the Yanks would be going ape-****.
Latvia already puts them within 600km of Moscow! Strategically, for the Russians, that is madness, more correctly, it imbalances MADness - no way would they be able to react in time to any pre-emptive attack from there.
And funnily enough, the US tested a new IRBM in 2019.
That is less than the distance from Boston to D.C.
If the situation were reversed, the Yanks would be going ape-****.
Latvia already puts them within 600km of Moscow! Strategically, for the Russians, that is madness, more correctly, it imbalances MADness - no way would they be able to react in time to any pre-emptive attack from there.
And funnily enough, the US tested a new IRBM in 2019.
As to how to solve the current puzzle.
I'd probably give the Ukrainians air launched nuclear cruise missiles.
... and make it very public so the Russians know it.
Puts another layer of pressure on Putin et al to not push Ukraine into a corner.
I'd probably give the Ukrainians air launched nuclear cruise missiles.
... and make it very public so the Russians know it.
Puts another layer of pressure on Putin et al to not push Ukraine into a corner.
Evil Putin's attack of Ukraine is on. I'm watching the news and you can hear missile strikes and sirens in the background while the reporter speaks. 
It's a very sad day.
It's a very sad day.
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Stayed out the Ukraine stuff but appears you can't say much other than **** and I hope those living there stay safe.
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Has Putin's war failed and what does Russia want from Ukraine?
A year into Russia's war, he has little to show for it but there is no sign of an end.
www.bbc.co.uk
well ****!
Well time to get drafted I guess
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There you have it. Ukraine could cease to exist as a sovereign nation now as nobody wanted to do anything when the warning signs were there clear as day...
What can you do though? Its why I've not really commented on it. Its bad a situation that can only get worse if other nations get involved on the military side.
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Anyone still questioning Putin's ambitions?
He's not going to stop with Ukraine. Give it a few more years and it will be somewhere else.
He's not going to stop with Ukraine. Give it a few more years and it will be somewhere else.
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Well the Cuban missile crisis showed how the Yanks reacted to such a scenario. Cuba is still paying for that today.
I don't understand why they couldn't just agree that Ukraine would just be a neutral buffer state like Finland. The real question is who (if anybody is next). If Putin has a hit list and wants to go for a NATO member like Latvia or Lithuania then things will start to look very bleak for the world. I do wonder if he's just picking off the non NATO members like Ukraine and then perhaps Moldova as he views them as 'fair game'.
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Offer NATO membership and get ready to mobilise militarily the second it looked like Putin was planning an invasion. He has never been dissuaded by sanctions before so why would he be now? He is a megalomaniacal dictator and such people are averse to being reasoned with through diplomacy.
This will not be the end, just like Georgia and Crimea were not the end. Anyone who thinks Putin will be satisfied if he brings the entirety of Ukraine into Russia is deluding themselves, if anything this will embolden him.
Yeah your issue there are the big weapons that go boom in catastrophic ways or are we forgetting Russia is a nuclear power? Its why there was never a direct conflict in the cold war and again this will be fought over proxy wars rather than direct conflict. If you fly into Ukraine you threaten exactly that.
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