I think trump wins the popular vote this time. I think conservatives and moderates who didn't vote for him on character issues will vote for him based on the market doing well under his watch. All his bad policy doesn't really hurt those who have money.
A lot of people who held up their nose and voted for Hilary aren't going to vote for Biden this time around.
Market doing well under his watch? Even with 30 million plus unemployed and counting and all his lies and outright lunacy; plus likely one of the deepest recessions because of his lack of action back in February and not preparing properly. If you're right then the conservatives and Moderates are more messed up than I thought. Still a long way to go until November.
Most people likely already made up their mind on Trump. It's those swing state voters you can never tell and relying on. Not really buying the polls right now (burnt before with Brexit/2017 here).
The way I see it Trump wins and he'll be even smugger than he is now. The GOP and right will crow from 'til the cows come home how they won again despite the hostile media. History is on their side and I think if America can re-elect Dubya despite Iraq they can again vote in Trump back in. Despite 100,000 plus dead from COVID-19 by November. I will shake my head in disbelief that America has allowed Trump yet again to get away with it and reward him for his last 4 years.
For me he would just down in history below, but the modern day western equivalent of the likes of Stalin, Mao and Pol Pot (not to extent to their insane numbers whom they killed), but who still facilitated one of the biggest mass murders on American soil. And despite his handling the conservative and moderates reinforced all that Trump stands for.
If he loses in a tight contest and it boils down to one state like 2000, then he's gonna take this all the way to the Supreme Court where he's got the majority of conservative justices, of which he appointed two of them. He could get it turned over.
In the unlikely event he gets hammered and Biden wins by a landslide then Trump will cry victim and rant that the election was totally rigged. He won't go quietly. If he is forced out he'll spend the next 4 years ranting and spouting conspiracy theories at how the elite stole the election from him.
If he gets booted out tight or big He'll probably enjoy going back on the roads again to campaign. He never really enjoyed the day to day work of being POTUS anyway. He never expected to win last time (Cohen) It was always part of his plan to boost his brand and wealth. And then what go again for 2024?
What a great future US politics has to look forward to.