Does anyone think a team other than Canterbury will win?

[TRF Mr Fish]

The top four teams will be Wellington, Canterbury and Counties Manukau.

Wellington are choakers, we know this from experience, so we can rule them out. Can anyone see Auckland or Counties beating Canterbury?

 

[Darwin]

No.

 

[nickdnz]

Pfft, Wellington are also unbeaten.

 

[TRF_heineken]

The top four teams will be Wellington, Canterbury and Counties Manukau.

Wellington are choakers, we know this from experience, so we can rule them out. Can anyone see Auckland or Counties beating Canterbury?

The top 4 teams will be:
Wellington
Canterbury
Counties Manukau

Hmmm

Someone can't count...

 

[dasNdanger]

I think Aukland could shake things up a bit.


das

 

[ABs2011]

The top four teams will be Wellington, Canterbury and Counties Manukau.

Wellington are choakers, we know this from experience, so we can rule them out. Can anyone see Auckland or Counties beating Canterbury?

Mmmm. I sure hope so! After Sydney wining the NRL last night I have now got Canterbury to win the comp as the last leg of a 7 leg multi I put on several months back! With a return of $5k.

However, in saying that, If I could chose a team to win the ITM right now without a doubt I'd be taking Wellington. From what I have seen of the ITM cupt they are hands down the best team. I expect to see a Canterbury Wellington final!!

Wellington have a far better team than past years (relative to the rest) IMO.

Im loving their loose forwards (Vito, Shileds and Savea) Those three would not look out of place playing international football! As a unit their forwards absolutely monstered Auckland on Saturday. In addition to the loosies, Matu'u, Toomaga-Allen, Goodes, Schwalger, Thrush, Mark Reddish all add solid super rugby experience. Definitely the best pack in the comp!

In the backs their biggest weakness is at 9. BUT in saying that after Frae Wilson got injured Palu has been getting better by the week and his combination with Sopoaga is improving. The rest of their back line is very impressive. Treeby, Bateman and Ngatai are rocks with some pretty exciting outside backs rotating in and out as well. AND now you can add Corey Jane into the mix as well.


My pick is Wellington to beat Canterbury in the final! I don't think Counties will be able to muscle up to Wellington in the forwards and will get beaten relatively easy in one semi. In the other I believe Canterbury's experience and class will be too much for the young Auckland side.

At this stage my thoughts are that I will hedge my Canterbury bet with $2k on Wellington before the semis and a further $2k IF/When they make the final!

Interested in what others think though??

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Still thinking of betting on Wellington after last night?

Personally, I would never place money on Wellington winning a competition. Maybe it's a curse, but they always fail at the last hurdle, regardless of how well they've done during the season.

 

[FlukeArtist]

Still thinking of betting on Wellington after last night?

Personally, I would never place money on Wellington winning a competition. Maybe it's a curse, but they always fail at the last hurdle, regardless of how well they've done during the season.

Have to agree.

I think Canterbury will get a few of their ABs back and will go on to take the ***le again.

That's always been an issue with the ITM / NPC - the ABs returning late season and the whole competition completly changing

 

[smartcooky]

Still thinking of betting on Wellington after last night?

Personally, I would never place money on Wellington winning a competition. Maybe it's a curse, but they always fail at the last hurdle, regardless of how well they've done during the season.

Hmmm.

Hawkes Bay have been off the pace all season, but last night, they opened up Wellington like a can of beans.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Have to agree.

I think Canterbury will get a few of their ABs back and will go on to take the ***le again.

That's always been an issue with the ITM / NPC - the ABs returning late season and the whole competition completly changing

There won't be any All Blacks in the semis (well, given that the All Blacks are playing that weekend, there certainly won't be many if any), and I can't see any playing in the final either.

 

[William18]

It's only one game. Better to lose this week than next week. Either way Wellington have been the best team all season are deserved favourites for the competition. The chances of us winning are probably less than 50% so it won't be a choke if we don't win though.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

It's only one game. Better to lose this week than next week. Either way Wellington have been the best team all season are deserved favourites for the competition. The chances of us winning are probably less than 50% so it won't be a choke if we don't win though.

Wellington have basically dominated every team they've come across, except for Hawke's Bay.

They beat Counties 55-16, Canterbury 25-19 and Auckland 38-16. It wasn't until their sixth game that they didn't earn a four try bonus point. They'll go into the finals with home advantage, having claimed the first spot with a game in hand. I'm pretty sure if they don't win that'd be considered choking

 

[nickdnz]

Ugh. Luckily I missed the HB game.

 

[William18]

Wellington have basically dominated every team they've come across, except for Hawke's Bay.

They beat Counties 55-16, Canterbury 25-19 and Auckland 38-16. It wasn't until their sixth game that they didn't earn a four try bonus point. They'll go into the finals with home advantage, having claimed the first spot with a game in hand. I'm pretty sure if they don't win that'd be considered choking

Or maybe another team just played better? To me it is only choking if a team has about an 70-80% chance of winning and blows it. I would rate our current chance of winning the ITM Cup at about 55%. Canterbury have about 30%, Auckland 10% and Counties 5%. So we have a greater chance of winning it than anyone else but to me there is still a 45% chance we won't win it.

Too many words are thrown around too often and lose their meaning. I mean between 2006 and 2009 we were in 4 finals in a row. Yes we should have won one of those games over that period but in none of those seasons were we a completely dominant side. I also don't believe in the science of choking. They have done studies in MLB for instance which basically prove there is no such thing as clutch hitters. I also don't believe that something like choking can be ingrained. I don't think there is something in the water in Wellington that makes our rugby team lose big games. It's like how in the early 2000's when the AB's had some bad losses and people said we were inferior as a nation to Australia and we were a bunch of chokers. Well, history has not proven that to be the case. 2010 4 nations, world Cup vs Slovakia are immediate instances that come to mind. Obviously I believe that pressure can cause individuals to perform badly; I just don't see why that pressure would disproportionately affect Wellingtonians as opposed to Cantabrians.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Or maybe another team just played better? To me it is only choking if a team has about an 70-80% chance of winning and blows it. I would rate our current chance of winning the ITM Cup at about 55%. Canterbury have about 30%, Auckland 10% and Counties 5%. So we have a greater chance of winning it than anyone else but to me there is still a 45% chance we won't win it.

Too many words are thrown around too often and lose their meaning. I mean between 2006 and 2009 we were in 4 finals in a row. Yes we should have won one of those games over that period but in none of those seasons were we a completely dominant side. I also don't believe in the science of choking. They have done studies in MLB for instance which basically prove there is no such thing as clutch hitters. I also don't believe that something like choking can be ingrained. I don't think there is something in the water in Wellington that makes our rugby team lose big games. It's like how in the early 2000's when the AB's had some bad losses and people said we were inferior as a nation to Australia and we were a bunch of chokers. Well, history has not proven that to be the case. 2010 4 nations, world Cup vs Slovakia are immediate instances that come to mind. Obviously I believe that pressure can cause individuals to perform badly; I just don't see why that pressure would disproportionately affect Wellingtonians as opposed to Cantabrians.

Going on this season alone Wellington have no excuses. The only reason their 'chances' of winning aren't higher is because they are chokers and Canterbury have a habit of winning. If Wellington don't win this season, when will they win? They've been so much better than the other teams so far this season, there's no excuse.

 

[candy_man]

I'm going for the under dog this year in Counties!! Especially after the performance against Southland to retain the Ranfury shield for the summer!

 

[ABs2011]

Going on this season alone Wellington have no excuses. The only reason their 'chances' of winning aren't higher is because they are chokers and Canterbury have a habit of winning. If Wellington don't win this season, when will they win? They've been so much better than the other teams so far this season, there's no excuse.

What a load of rubbish! I agree entirely with William18. Wellington have been the best team this year and deservedly go into the finals as favorites BUT there is a very reasonable chance that they will not win and it is because there are 3 other good teams out there competing against them. Counties can probably beat any ITM cup team on their day so won't be an easy beat for Wellington in the semi. If Wellington do win their semi, Canterbury (presuming they win v Auckland) will be very tough in the final. In the round robin, the game they won v Canterbury was extremely close - Given your comments I'm guessing you mustn't have watched that game? Canterbury could have easily won it, clearly the two teams are pretty closely matched (almost 50 -50 I'd argue). If Wellington don't win the ITM cup it will be because they got beaten by a better team.

 

[ABs2011]

Still thinking of betting on Wellington after last night?

Personally, I would never place money on Wellington winning a competition. Maybe it's a curse, but they always fail at the last hurdle, regardless of how well they've done during the season.

My plan to hedge my $5k return will be to first ride out the results of the semi finals and see where that leaves me. Hopefully Canterbury make it through to the final and hopefully Counties beat Wellington

However I believe it will be a Wellington Canterbury final and at that stage I will probably put down $2k on Wellington.

At this stage it's not so much about what I think will happen, but more about doing the math and making sure I get some kind of positive net return! Clearly I placed my multi at the start of the season thinking Canterbury were the best chances of winning the cup. Now I'd give the favorites tag to Wellington hence I will certainly cover on them IF the final is between them and Canterbury and should be able to guarantee at least a $2k return.

Regardless, it's been a good season for me. $3k return on Counties holding the shield already banked. I also have a small wager on Counties at $25 to win the Cup, some cover already on Wellington already at $3 and a minimum $2k return in the championship so long as Southland don't win

By the way, wouldn't read much into the Wellington HB game. Wellington had bugger all to play for, HB had a home semi to play for. HB played brilliantly, Wellington were flat. Auck were in a similar situation v Otago and looked equally as poor. Two teams just going through the motions IMHO.

 

[ABs2011]

My plan to hedge my $5k return will be to first ride out the results of the semi finals and see where that leaves me. Hopefully Canterbury make it through to the final and hopefully Counties beat Wellington

However I believe it will be a Wellington Canterbury final and at that stage I will probably put down $2k on Wellington.

At this stage it's not so much about what I think will happen, but more about doing the math and making sure I get some kind of positive net return! Clearly I placed my multi at the start of the season thinking Canterbury were the best chances of winning the cup. Now I'd give the favorites tag to Wellington hence I will certainly cover on them IF the final is between them and Canterbury and should be able to guarantee at least a $2k return.

Regardless, it's been a good season for me. $3k return on Counties holding the shield already banked. I also have a small wager on Counties at $25 to win the Cup, some cover already on Wellington already at $3 and a minimum $2k return in the championship so long as Southland don't win

By the way, wouldn't read much into the Wellington HB game. Wellington had bugger all to play for, HB had a home semi to play for. HB played brilliantly, Wellington were flat. Auck were in a similar situation v Otago and looked equally as poor. Two teams just going through the motions IMHO.

Wellington Canterbury final it is!

After watching the weekend matches I'd say Wellington are deserved favourites.

 

[dasNdanger]

Wellington Canterbury final it is!

After watching the weekend matches I'd say Wellington are deserved favourites.

It is looking that way. I wasn't sure anyone was watching this weekend - nary a peep here on the forum.

Of course, it's hard to predict if Wellington will perform the same way against the #2 team as it did the #4. For as good as Counties has been, I don't believe anyone thought the outcome of that game would have been any different, so Wellington's win may have come off as a bit easy. They will find a tougher opponent in Canterbury, and though I think Wellington will come out on top I don't think it'll be quite the cakewalk the last game was for them.


das