Rugby World Cup 2019 Qualifying & Repechage Tournament

[Goodey]

So what's the motive for USA and Samoa to actually win these games?

Bit weird innit

 

[Brigantine]

To avoid the possibility of having to go to the Repechage Tournament...

You're right, it's not much of a motive. If I were Tonga or Samoa, I'd be hoping to lose the PNC and then lose to Europe 2, eventually qualifying via the Repechage Tournament, get into Pool B and get a duel with Italy for 2023 automatic qualification.

For USA and Canada, going to the Repechage Tournament is a riskier proposition, and being in Pool B less attractive anyway.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

It probably would be more safe for Tonga as the repechage tournament would apparently be held in the country that is the highest ranking participant. I agree it would be too risky for a team from the Americas.

The results last year from the Pacific Championship count, so the points as things stand are:

Fiji 8
Samoa 4
Tonga 1

 

[Brigantine]

It probably would be more safe for Tonga as the repechage tournament would apparently be held in the country that is the highest ranking participant

If Tonga ends up being the highest ranked participant, I can almost guarantee WR find a way to wriggle out of that. Is there even enough accommodation for 3 rugby teams in Nuku'alofa? I mean they've hosted PNC matches in Samoa in the past because of issues with their grounds or something.

I hope it goes to Auckland or Pukekohe instead prob the best compromise.

 

[Brigantine]

So the USA is the first country since 2015 to earn direct qualification. Pool C is officially England, France, Argentina and USA.

With Tonga only getting a very narrow win over Samoa, the table is now Fiji 8, Samoa 5, Tonga 5. The only games remaining are Fiji's away games. Anything can still happen.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Apparently it was Tongas first home game for around 10 years after a stadium refurbishment I think. I thought they might win by a little more. Samoa clear favourites for Oceania2 I think due to points difference.

Canada looking far from certain to qualify, although probably still favourites. I don't think Uruguay will like to play in Canada in winter!

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Tonga vs Samoa full game

 

[Tautahi]

If Tonga lose this weekend against Fiji, it is most certainly we will miss out on the to avaliable Oceania spots. So it will come down to playoff between Europe2, winner preceding to Pool A. From Tonga's prespective this pool is highly favourable.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

As much as Tonga have impressed me, Fiji are surely on a different level and have a population roughly eight times the size? A losing bonus point might be acheivable though and would put real pressure on Samoa.

If my maths is right almost 10% of the population was in the stadium for the game vs Samoa last week. That's what you call a support!

 

[Brigantine]

Madagascar and Botswana have been convincingly eliminated, in matches that on paper should have been at least somewhat competitive.

The Silver Cup final will be this weekend - Morocco (WRR 50 going on 45) vs Ivory Coast (WRR 53 going on 51). Per rankings points Morocco is favoured 71% - 29%.

[Reddit thread]

 

[Tautahi]

Fiji win 14 -10 a try each two late penalties cost us the game.But keeping it positive this a ever improving squad young squad. So all depends on Samoa vs Fiji for Oceania 2.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

A very respectable result as it looked like a strong Fijian lineup. Such a shame you couldn't nick the victory. So if Samoa lose by more than 7 points, do Tonga finish above them?

 

[Tautahi]

Yeah it was a good game it could of went either way, credit to Fiji great squad. So with the bonus losing point we finish with 6 points. If Samoa win or lose within 7 they will go through. Which will take us to Playoff qualifier.

 

[Brigantine]

Tonga secures a losing bonus point vs Fiji - so Fiji has secured the Oceania 1 spot in Pool D with Australia, Wales and Georgia (making Fiji favourites for 2023 AQ). They win 0.74 RP, taking them just 0.70 RP short of Argentina (still too far to close the gap next week vs Samoa - only 0.68 RP available), 0.83 RP short of France, and 2.93 RP short of Wales (meaning on paper, Fiji with home advantage would be the favourite vs Wales on tour). It also puts them a full 5 RP clear of the rest of tier 2.

The pressure is on Samoa to also secure at least a bonus point. Or at least it *would* be, if losing wouldn't make them favourites to get into a better pool.

In other news, Ivory coast is eliminated by Morocco and Kenya scores 100 points vs Tunisia.

So it's now:

• 17 - 17 countries that had guaranteed spaces in the final 23 including:
  • 12 - 12 Automatic Qualifiers direct to the RWC
  • 14 - USA and Fiji have secured direct qualification
  • 17 - Tonga, Samoa and Canada can all still qualify directly, and have the Repechage Tournament as a worst-case scenario
• 18 - Uruguay earned the spot for the Americas. They may qualify directly, but the Repechage Tournament is their worst-case scenario
  
• 29 - 11 more countries from Europe (5) and Africa (6) are still able to qualify directly, as well as having the Repechage Tournament as Plan B
• 37 - 8 further countries are able to qualify for the Repechage Tournament, with no other path to the RWC. (Portugal, Czechia, Morocco, Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia, Cook Islands, Tahiti)

• 53 countries eliminated

 

[Brigantine]

Well, Fiji got the full 0.68 RP available from the Samoa game. That now places them just 0.02 RP short of Argentina, 0.15 short of France, 2.25 short of Wales, and 2.99 short of Scotland.

On paper, for a hypothetical Fiji vs Scotland on Fijian soil, Fiji is now the favourite - ever so slightly. (by 50.05% - 49.95%).
On 19 August, if South Africa beats Argentina, Fiji will take WRR 9 (equal to their highest ever). In November, Fiji has a good chance of making the top 8 for the first time. (albeit temporarily)

Of course, this also means Tonga has qualified directly for Pool C, so Pool C is now complete. England, France, Argentina, USA, Tonga!

As for the Europe vs Oceania repechage play-off, the RP Samoa lost also mean Romania is now ranked higher. So in the event Romania fail to qualify as Europe 1, on current rankings they would be the (narrow) favourites to win the play-off and still qualify for Pool A. (with Ireland, Scotland, Japan and whichever European team beat them)

 

[Goodey]

Tonga secures a losing bonus point vs Fiji - so Fiji has secured the Oceania 1 spot in Pool D with Australia, Wales and Georgia (making Fiji favourites for 2023 AQ). They win 0.74 RP, taking them just 0.70 RP short of Argentina (still too far to close the gap next week vs Samoa - only 0.68 RP available), 0.83 RP short of France, and 2.93 RP short of Wales (meaning on paper, Fiji with home advantage would be the favourite vs Wales on tour). It also puts them a full 5 RP clear of the rest of tier 2.

The pressure is on Samoa to also secure at least a bonus point. Or at least it *would* be, if losing wouldn't make them favourites to get into a better pool.

In other news, Ivory coast is eliminated by Morocco and Kenya scores 100 points vs Tunisia.

So it's now:

• 17 - 17 countries that had guaranteed spaces in the final 23 including:
  • 12 - 12 Automatic Qualifiers direct to the RWC
  • 14 - USA and Fiji have secured direct qualification
  • 17 - Tonga, Samoa and Canada can all still qualify directly, and have the Repechage Tournament as a worst-case scenario
• 18 - Uruguay earned the spot for the Americas. They may qualify directly, but the Repechage Tournament is their worst-case scenario
  
• 29 - 11 more countries from Europe (5) and Africa (6) are still able to qualify directly, as well as having the Repechage Tournament as Plan B
• 37 - 8 further countries are able to qualify for the Repechage Tournament, with no other path to the RWC. (Portugal, Czechia, Morocco, Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia, Cook Islands, Tahiti)

• 53 countries eliminated

I think Portugal and Czechia can in theory qualify without the Repechage, as the winner of their playoff then will have a match against the 2nd place REC side to become Europe 2, who will play Samoa for direct qualification.

 

[Brigantine]

You're right. I overlooked that.

It's still "repechage" instead of direct qualification, but they could win the repechage play-off and avoid the actual Repechage Tournament.

 

[Brigantine]

With that correction, as well as changing the African process to a 6 team format for 2018, it's now:

• 17 - 17 countries that had guaranteed spaces in the final 23 including:
  • 12 - 12 Automatic Qualifiers direct to the RWC
  • 15 - USA, Fiji and Tonga have secured direct qualification
  • 16 - Canada can all still qualify directly, and has the Repechage Tournament as a worst-case scenario
  • 17 - Samoa can no longer qualify directly, but still has 2 repechage chances - the H&A play-off vs Europe 2, and then failing that, the Repechage Tournament
• 18 - Uruguay earned the spot for the Americas. They may qualify directly, but the Repechage Tournament is their worst-case scenario
• 30 - 12 more countries from Europe (5) and Africa (7 - including Morocco) are still able to qualify directly, as well as having the repechage process as Plan B.
  • 23 - the 5 European countries have the H&A repechage play-off vs Samoa as Plan B-1, and then the Repechage Tournament as Plan B-2
  • 30 - for the 7 African countries, Plan B is only the Repechage Tournament
• 37 - 8 further countries can not qualify directly, but have one chance to qualify for the final 23.
  • 32 - Portugal and Czechia can qualify via the H&A repechage play-off vs Samoa (Plan A-1), or the Repechage Tournament (Plan A-2)
  • 37 - 5 Asian and Oceanian countries are able to qualify for the Repechage Tournament, with no other path to the RWC. (Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia, Cook Islands, Tahiti)

• 53 countries eliminated

This weekend 2 more countries will be eliminated:

• whoever loses Cook Islands (48) vs Tahiti (91) (KO match) - 1pm Saturday NZ time, 3pm Friday local time. (Cook Islands are 15.32 RP ahead, so 100% favourites)
  
• whoever loses Tunisia (45) vs Senegal (51) (or Senegal if a draw) - 4am Sunday NZ time, 5pm Saturday local time. (Tunisia are favourites 73%-27%)

 

[Brigantine]

And as it turns out, Tahiti pull out a major upset and the Cook Islands get eliminated from RWC qualifying and drop 8 places in the rankings.

Cook Islands drop from 48 to 56, below the Cayman Islands and Mexico. Tahiti only up 3 places - 91 to 88. Now closing in on Niue (still trail by 0.66 RP).
They are 38 places below Senegal (50) - the lowest ranked other country that still has a path to RWC 2019.

So Tahiti progress out of their continent and will play a RWC qualifying repechage against the 2018 Asian Champion! Who would have thought.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

And as it turns out, Tahiti pull out a major upset and the Cook Islands get eliminated from RWC qualifying and drop 8 places in the rankings.

Cook Islands drop from 48 to 56, below the Cayman Islands and Mexico. Tahiti only up 3 places - 91 to 88. Now closing in on Niue (still trail by 0.66 RP).
They are 38 places below Senegal (50) - the lowest ranked other country that still has a path to RWC 2019.

So Tahiti progress out of their continent and will play a RWC qualifying repechage against the 2018 Asian Champion! Who would have thought.

Ouch. And to think they were teeing up Cook Island for some Tier2 tests this June I think (but they fell through). Perhaps the ability of the Cook Islands was overestimated.

Also, Samoa have reportedly sacked their coach. Probably the right decision in my opinion but a lack of coaching continuity might give the Europe2 side more of a chance in that qualifier next year.

Possible repechage sides Canada and Samoa both without coaches at present.