Things are getting more and more simple in the qualifying process with the majority of teams already eliminated. Again there is quite a long break before we have another qualifying matches (Canada-USA matchup in August), so I'll do a summary of the situation for the moment. As the previous time, I'll go through every continent and list the teams which still have the chance to qualify for England 2015, together with some comments and (wishful) tips for qualifiers.
Africa
Already qualified: South Africa
Qualifier places: 1
Repechage places: 1
Still in hunt: Zimbabwe, Kenya, Madagascar, Namibia (4 teams)
The final qualification for RWC2015 will be the CAR Division 1A tournament in 2014, with the winner of the four team draw going to England and the runner-up having one more chance in the repechage. Though Namibia have to be viewed as favourites after coming back from lower divisions, Kenya are the current DIV 1A champions and perhaps they finally will be able to transform their status in sevens to XV rugby. And of course many of us (me included) are happy that Madagascar is still in the hunt, I hope the unbelievable passion for the game in this country will be rewarded with something.
My tip (very wishful I have to admit):
Qualifier: KenyaRepechage: Madagascar
Americas
Already qualified: Argentina
Qualifier places: 2
Repechage places: 1
Still in hunt: Canada, USA, Uruguay (3 teams)
It's very simple in Americas, 3 spots and 3 teams left, but there's still a lot to play for - obviously avoiding the repechage, not having to play too many matches and finally the spot in group B vs. group D (though I'm not sure which one would be better).
The two North American Tier 2 countries play directly for a qualifier spots, with the loser (I think it will probably be USA, but you never know in such tense games) still getting a second chance versus Uruguay, who will have to do really well to beat the loser. But it would be good to see Uruguay in RWC, and if USA had to play repechage, we could see a nice game vs. some European team.
My tip:
Qualifiers: Canada, Uruguay
Repechage: USA
Asia
Already qualified: none
Qualifier places: 1
Repechage places: 1
Still in hunt: Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Philippines, Sri Lanka (5 teams)
Again a simple process: the winner of next year's 5 Nations goes to RWC, the runner-up has one more chance in the repachage. Of course Japan is 99,9% certain to take the qualifier place without any trouble. South Korea should be the favourites to get the repechage place, as they finished as a runner-up in two previous editions. I'm still keeping my fingers crossed for Philippines though, and luckily they managed to hold on in top division the first year, maybe next year they could attack higher ranked nations?
My tip:
Qualifier: Japan
Repechage: South Korea
Europe
Already qualified: England, France, Wales, Ireland, Scotland, Italy
Qualifier places: 2
Repechage places: 1
Still in hunt: Georgia, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Spain, Belgium, Czech Republic, Germany, Ukraine, Moldova, Poland, Sweden, Netherlands, Israel, Luxembourg (15 teams)
Many teams still have a chance to qualify, but it's pretty certain that the 2+1 winning places will go to teams from European Nations Cup Division 1A, which means Georgia, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Spain and Belgium.
My tip:
Qualifiers: Georgia, Romania
Repechage: Russia
Oceania
Already qualified: New Zealand, Australia, Samoa, Tonga
Qualifier places: 1
Repechage places: 0
Still in hunt: Fiji, Cook Islands (2 teams)
A surprise outcome of this year's Oceania Cup means it will be Cook Islands, not favourites Papua New Guinea facing Fiji to get a ticket to England. Anyway, the Fijians are virtually guaranteed a place in RWC, but nevertheless congratulations to Cook Islands.
My tip:
Qualifier: Fiji
Repechage
The four teams which earned a repechage places will battle for the last spot in RWC2015.
My tip, assuming my previous tips (Madagascar, USA, South Korea, Russia): USA
So, currently there are still 29 teams fighting for just 8 spots in RWC2015 and we can expect the most exciting battle in Africa. If my predictions come true, we'll see Kenya, Canada, Uruguay, Japan, Georgia, Romania, Fiji and USA in England.
