South Africa v New Zealand. 21 Aug 2010. What is your prediction?

[TRF_Cymro]

I hope they don't make a big deal of Juan Smiths push, because it will mask what is a bigger issue for me, and that is the poor positioning of Nigel Owens. If they punish Smith, I fear this will validate Owen's positioning.

Nigel Owens gets in the way of players and passes more than any other elite referee. When ONE referee is the only Elite level referee that has been pushed out of the way by players, and it has happened twice, you have to question why that is.

My main criticism of his is that he spends a lot of time in what we call the "chariot" position; directly behind the ruck (like he's driving a chariot). This position has the potential to severely restrict the scrum half's options, which is why we teach referees not to stand there. The other reason we don't recommend it is that the view from there is poor. You may be able to see the odd ruck infringement, but you cannot see accurately when the ball is out, and you cannot judge players ahead of the hindmost foot.


Dan Carter out for Eight Weeks


From: <cite>www.sportspredict.co.za</cite>

Great chance for Aaron Cruden to start against Australia

Yet Nigel is still regarded as the top IRB referee! Its all well and good sitting there poo-pooing his performance ... lets face it how much better could you do it? Its all well and good criticising the officials, the No. 9 had other options also available to him.

Nigel stood where he deems to be able to see where the ruck and where he can ensure there is no foul play. Christ its like sometimes these ref's can do anything right.

 

[smartcooky]

Where did I "poo poo" his performance? I thought the rest of his game was excellent, but this aspect is a problem. When the same referee keeps getting pushed out of the way by different players in different matches and different competitions, you have to conclude that the problem is with that referee and not the players.

There is a lively discussion topic on the referees forum about this, and its running about 50/50 as to whether Smith should he cited, but there is 100% agreement that Nigel's positioning was poor. He runs right in front of Smith.

The fact that players have other options is irrelevant. The referee should not be affecting play at all, and should not be standing where he cuts any of the attacking side's options down. At least, that is what we teach them anyway!

 

[TRF_Cymro]

Where did I "poo poo" his performance? I thought the rest of his game was excellent, but this aspect is a problem. When the same referee keeps getting pushed out of the way by different players in different matches and different competitions, you have to conclude that the problem is with that referee and not the players.

There is a lively discussion topic on the referees forum about this, and its running about 50/50 as to whether Smith should he cited, but there is 100% agreement that Nigel's positioning was poor. He runs right in front of Smith.

Smith should be punished for that. Could have caused Nigel to have a serious injury.

Fact Nigel went to the back of the ruck to tell Cowan to use it because the noise was to loud for him. Nigel then retreats to make room, Cowan could have gone either way and pass the ball. Smith knew what he was doing as far as im concerned.

 

[*Axe*]

mate i thought the abs played well and have said so,i just think the south african players are of equal quality, no excuses for the loss last night

I just wonder with a combined score over the three tests of 92-51 in favour of the All Blacks how this can be so....

 

[Darwin]

What a great game of rugby! Personally I think a draw would have been a fairer reflection of the game, but as they say, great teams win the games they shouldn't.

The Boks were a completely different team than that the one that toured NZ and Australia. Their tackling was generally sound, and they looked dangerous at times when they ran the ball in the backline. There were two major improvements I noticed in the Boks, one was their kicking game. There were two aspects of the Boks kicking game that impressed me: (1) Hougaard's accurate box-kicks from the base of the ruck that put the AB's under real pressure (2) Morne Steyn's touch finders (when he found actually found touch), which he kicked into the stands, rather than just into touch - this prevented the AB's from taking quick throws (preventing the AB's from counter attacking), and allowed the Boks to attack the AB's lineout.

The second major improvement for the Boks was their work at the breakdown, which really impressed me this game. They only stole a few clean balls, but they did compete strongly, which ment New Zealand was getting much slower ball than they had in their previous games - this allowed the Boks to form their defensive line. This along with their more accurate kicking ment the AB's had to work a lot harder to breach the Boks defensive line.

There were a few standouts to me on both teams. For the Boks I thought Aplon was solid at fullback, while Habana looked dangerous one the wing when he got the ball. Steyn had a mixed game - his goalkicking was great, but he did make a few huge errors, such as not finding touch from a penalty (and whats worse, kicking the ball dead). Spies made a number of good runs, breaking the first tackle on a number of occasions, while I thought Smith and Burger also had good games.

For the AB's, none of the outside backs stood out to me, but they were all solid. Nonu was impressive in midfield, especially with his passing game (and the obvious final break). Carter's goalkicking was poor, and he made a few errors. Weepu added something when he came on - I imagine he will be starting the next game, especially given Carter will not be playing so they will need a goalkicker. Thorn was again impressive -he just keeps getting better. I worry about Ben Franks scrummaging - he seems to struggle at the top level (both at loosehead and tighthead), it was interesting that the scrum improved when Afoa came on, as he is notoriously weak scrummager!

 

[Shaggy]

I just wonder with a combined score over the three tests of 92-51 in favour of the All Blacks how this can be so....

Ok, well since you wonder ...

1/ I think most of us have been speaking about the last match in the series ... so the fact that the boks lead for most of the match, and that the AB's equalised with a try that had a forward pass preceding it, puts both teams pretty well equal (in this match) in my book.

2/ Obviously all three games were played in identical conditions, with the same personnel, with the same ref etc ... otherwise your combined scores are meaningless.

 

[Dizzy]

brilliant game, terrific ending and pure classs displayed by the all blacks.

Great performance Israel Dagg and Nonu, superb

 

[*Axe*]

Ok, well since you wonder ...

1/ I think most of us have been speaking about the last match in the series ... so the fact that the boks lead for most of the match, and that the AB's equalised with a try that had a forward pass preceding it, puts both teams pretty well equal (in this match) in my book.

2/ Obviously all three games were played in identical conditions, with the same personnel, with the same ref etc ... otherwise your combined scores are meaningless.

Fair enough. I just think that saying they are equal is a little far-fetched. South Africa were certainly a heap better than they have been, but I believe that was the best their CURRENT team can be. Whereas i think the CURRENT All Black team can play better.

I think if both team's were at the absoloute top of their game = ABS by 10.

 

[markshaw]

Fair enough. I just think that saying they are equal is a little far-fetched. South Africa were certainly a heap better than they have been, but I believe that was the best their CURRENT team can be. Whereas i think the CURRENT All Black team can play better.

I think if both team's were at the absoloute top of their game = ABS by 10.

Boks at altitude should perform better then the All Blacks. Come 2011 World Cup in NZ they will get dicked, if they make the final I predict.

 

[*Axe*]

Boks at altitude should perform better then the All Blacks. Come 2011 World Cup in NZ they will get dicked, if they make the final I predict.

Yeah they probably should. But the ABs were in top gear at the end of that game, while the Boks couldnt even put their foot on the clutch.

 

[Shaggy]

Boks at altitude should perform better then the All Blacks. Come 2011 World Cup in NZ they will get dicked, if they make the final I predict.

I agree Mark, the Boks should perform better at altitude. I think it's a little early to make predictions about the World Cup predictions though (just think where the AB's were 12 months ago).

Axe, I hear what you're saying, but I guess my concern is that some people are thinking the All Blacks are way better than every other team, when in reality, the gaps between the top international teams aren't that great ... the reality is that no team can play at the top of their game all of the time.

I guess in the grand scheme of things it doesn't really matter as our views make no difference to the outcomes of the games, but i've seen it so many times (talking up the AB's prior to the world cup)

 

[*Axe*]

I agree Mark, the Boks should perform better at altitude. I think it's a little early to make predictions about the World Cup predictions though (just think where the AB's were 12 months ago).

Axe, I hear what you're saying, but I guess my concern is that some people are thinking the All Blacks are way better than every other team, when in reality, the gaps between the top international teams aren't that great ... the reality is that no team can play at the top of their game all of the time.

I guess in the grand scheme of things it doesn't really matter as our views make no difference to the outcomes of the games, but i've seen it so many times (talking up the AB's prior to the world cup)

Yeah i am all for not getting too carried away with teh ABs being way better. I was stoked that the 'Boks were better on Saturday because they are a better team than the first two games of the 3N.

I guess, because first and formost i am an avid AB fan, I am stoked they turned around last year's 0-3 thumping at the hands of the same team. I beleive few argued the 'Boks status at the same time last year

 

[Shaggy]

Yeah i am all for not getting too carried away with teh ABs being way better. I was stoked that the 'Boks were better on Saturday because they are a better team than the first two games of the 3N.

I guess, because first and formost i am an avid AB fan, I am stoked they turned around last year's 0-3 thumping at the hands of the same team. I beleive few argued the 'Boks status at the same time last year

Yeah, i'm happy too ... it's a great turn around by the AB's from last year ... Boks were the benchmark last year, and the ABs this year ... just didn't think the gap was as great between the sides either year

 

[smartcooky]

Axe, I hear what you're saying, but I guess my concern is that some people are thinking the All Blacks are way better than every other team, when in reality, the gaps between the top international teams aren't that great ... the reality is that no team can play at the top of their game all of the time.

I agree. At the level these guys play, 2-3% can be the difference between winning and losing.

However, what I see in this All Blacks side that appears to have been missing in many previous sides is that they have multiple game-plans and the ability to win games in different ways.

In the first three matches they blew the Springboks and Wallabies off the park with high speed running and passing, and a ruthless attitude in committing superior numbers to the breakdown.

In the fourth match, they essentially gave the Wallabies the breakdown, committing only one or two players each time, just filled the trenches and defended the Wallabies out of the game.

In the fifth and most recent match, they fended off the Boks emotional high, backed their superior fitness then just bided their time, waiting until their opponents were exhausted. The were like a prize-fighter, waiting out their opponent, almost matching him blow for blow while wearing him down until the last round, and then striking with the one-two punch to finish him off.

However, what is the most scary thing for their opponents, isn't just that they have these multiple game-plans/ways of playing, they seems to have the ability implement them "on the fly". Its almost like someone throws a switch, and Plan A becomes Plan B. When you may only be a few percentage points ahead of your opponent, this is the type of thing that can give you the winning edge.

 

[Shaggy]

I agree. At the level these guys play, 2-3% can be the difference between winning and losing.

However, what I see in this All Blacks side that appears to have been missing in many previous sides is that they have multiple game-plans and the ability to win games in different ways.

In the first three matches they blew the Springboks and Wallabies off the park with high speed running and passing, and a ruthless attitude in committing superior numbers to the breakdown.

In the fourth match, they essentially gave the Wallabies the breakdown, committing only one or two players each time, just filled the trenches and defended the Wallabies out of the game.

In the fifth and most recent match, they fended off the Boks emotional high, backed their superior fitness then just bided their time, waiting until their opponents were exhausted. The were like a prize-fighter, waiting out their opponent, almost matching him blow for blow while wearing him down until the last round, and then striking with the one-two punch to finish him off.

However, what is the most scary thing for their opponents, isn't just that they have these multiple game-plans/ways of playing, they seems to have the ability implement them "on the fly". Its almost like someone throws a switch, and Plan A becomes Plan B. When you may only be a few percentage points ahead of your opponent, this is the type of thing that can give you the winning edge.

Yes, true, they have implemented different game plans ... done their homework on the opposition and the referees ... all good, and i'm generally not a "sky is falling in" type of guy, but as you say, the difference between the teams is only 2 to 3%, and alot can change in 12 months

... the AB's really need to establish true international depth in key positions (7 and 10), and it looks like we have to play a new 10 anyway now

 

[smartcooky]

... the AB's really need to establish true international depth in key positions (7 and 10), and it looks like we have to play a new 10 anyway now

Absolutely, and not only those positions, but I believe we need another prop who can play left and right, another lock. Most back positions are well covered except 10. The next match will be a good test for Aaron Cruden, and I believe that, regardless of DC's fitness, Cruden will play the Hong Kong test if he comes through the Sydney test alright.

 

[ranger]

Absolutely, and not only those positions, but I believe we need another prop who can play left and right, another lock. Most back positions are well covered except 10. The next match will be a good test for Aaron Cruden, and I believe that, regardless of DC's fitness, Cruden will play the Hong Kong test if he comes through the Sydney test alright.

Yeah prop is a bit of a concern, especially with the coaches persisting with John Afoa without really specifying what position he plays or giving him any game time..Charlie Faumauina looks the goods for an AB jersey later on but the selectors have probably missed their opportunity to get him in the squad before the cup. Between O. Franks, B. Franks, Woodcock, Tialata and Macintosh they should be alright.

As for lock i dont think there are any problems actually. Donelly, Thorn, Whitelock, Boric with Ali Williams and Jason Eaton coming back from injury. If those two dont make it theres Bekhuis who is still playing well enough for a black jersey and Chris Jack who seems like the perfect candidate for the last locking spot. He could provide leadership in the squad and maybe even captain the team for the games against the minows.

At 10 we finally have another real contender now that Slade is getting extended time in the 10 jersey. Delaney coming back is an interesting prospect as he probably had the inside running over Cruden this year. There is also a chance that Luke McAllister will see the writing on the wall with the midfield depth and put the hard yards in before the super 14 to work on becoming an actual 10. If the worst comes to the worst Piri Weepu did an awesome job of getting the backline going in the last test, he has the ability to be a backup 1st five.

All in all im not too concerned about the depth really. As long as McCaw, Conrad and Carter stay healthy that is

 

[Shaggy]

All in all im not too concerned about the depth really. As long as McCaw, Conrad and Carter stay healthy that is

Exactly, if they stay fit ... but in case they don't we need the guys there to take over and do the job, plus take over the running/leadership of the game ... we don't want a repeat of the "channel 13"/Leon MacDonald at centre fiasco in the 2003 WC

...Hopefully Conrad Smith and Kahui will be both fit, I think inside centre depth is a little weak too

 

[TRF_Ezequiel]

Boks at altitude should perform better then the All Blacks. Come 2011 World Cup in NZ they will get dicked, if they make the final I predict.

Why do you Kiwi's always think you will win the World Cup without breaking a sweat? The World Cup is a tournament that has proven to be a stage where nothing is certain and especially for the AB's, I give Australia and South Africa more chance to win in 2011 even in it is held in NZ for the main reason that the aggressive (not violent, don't get me wrong) way of playing is too much to recover from every 4 days. I said so before. In the Tri-Nations and S14 it's easier to maintain that type of play with a full week to recover and rest but at a World Cup you play every 4 days.

Don't get me wrong, whenever SA doesn't win the World Cup, I prefer NZ to win, simply because they have the most impressive team and are an example for Rugby Union all over the World. We'll see how things will go next year. By then everything will be different for all teams. Look what can happen in 1 year...

 

[ranger]

Exactly, if they stay fit ... but in case they don't we need the guys there to take over and do the job, plus take over the running/leadership of the game ... we don't want a repeat of the "channel 13"/Leon MacDonald at centre fiasco in the 2003 WC

...Hopefully Conrad Smith and Kahui will be both fit, I think inside centre depth is a little weak too

But what im saying is, we have enough depth in every position at the moment. If McCaw goes down then we have Braid to step in but who takes Braids spot would be a concern.
Right now we have the players to cover pretty much every position, but if we take an injury then the bottom of the depth chart will weaken. Its not really the same.