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With only 1 more weekend to go, only 2 teams are guaranteed a play-off spot. The Chiefs and Stormers have won their respective conferences and are free in 2 weeks when the first round of the play-offs start. 6 other teams are still in the race to join them. Even the Brumbies, who lead the Australian conference, can end outside the top 6, despite chances being slim, it is possible. They need 1 point to clinch the conference and are the team with the best papers of making it. Behind the Brumbies, there's 5 teams with only 3 points between them. Crusaders, Bulls, Sharks, Reds and Hurricanes.
So what are the chances of each of the teams? We will have a close look at the final weekend in which everything will be decided towards the play-offs.
The log as it stands is this:
(source: superxv.com)
As mentioned, the Brumbies have the best chance to join the Chiefs and Stormers. In their final match of the regular season they host the Blues from Auckland. It has been 3 years since the Blues have played in Canberra. On 9 May 2009 the Brumbies defeated the Blues 37-15 and ended 7th in the competition. If the Brumbies win this time, they are guaranteed a home play-off match against the no. 6 seed. With a +87 point difference, even a small defeat might be enough. So how can the Brumbies miss the play-offs?
If the Brumbies lose without getting a bonuspoint and the Reds win with 4 tries or more, the Hurricanes have to make up a point difference of 30 (they are currently on +57) to pass the Brumbies and the remaining 3 teams winning all their matches. 1 point is enough for the conference-***le and a 3rd place on the log. If the are succesful, it will be the first time since 2004 they are making the Super Rugby play-offs. That will be a massive achievement from the team that previously won the competition twice (2001 and 2004). Jake White, who returned to Australia to coach the Brumbies, has done an incredible job so far.
The Crusaders are in 4th place and are playing the Western Force. Luckil for the Christchurch franchise, they play at home. When these 2 teams met in Perth, it resulted in close matches and not in the easy ride people expected. The Crusaders want to finish strong to have a home play-off match. With Dan Carter and Richie McCaw back from injury they have been looking stronger than earlier this year. After the departure of Sonny Bill Williams, Ryan Crotty has stepped up and filled the gap there. During Dan Carter's injury, the Crusaders struggled to cope with the loss of their star player but they are still in a very good spot to make the play-offs. The last time the Force visited Christchurch, the match ended in a draw. During the match, 3 years ago, the Crusaders scored more tries but still ended up sharing the points.
So what are the chances of the Crusaders? Well, they are 3 points ahead of the Reds and Hurricanes and need a win to claim the 4th spot. The 2-point lead on the Bulls and Sharks is enough to keep them 4th without needing a bonus point. So how can the Crusaders miss the boat? Well... If the Crusaders lose and 3 of the 4 teams chasing them win their match it means they are out. It's clear that the Crusaders need to win. If they do, it's their first win at home over the Perth-based team since April 2007.
Ah, the Bulls. The mighty team from Pretoria. Having won the competition 3 times, they are the most succesful team behind the Crusaders, but a lot has changed for die Blou Bulle. Experienced players like Victor Matfield, Bakkies Botha, Gurthro Steenkamp, Danie Rossouw, Fourie du Preez and Gary Botha have all left the franchise in the last year. Matfield retired, the rest of them moved to teams in France and Japan. Many people were expecting a rebuilding-season for the Bulls but they are now in 5th place. How do they do it? Young guys like Francois Hougaard, Juandre Kruger (coming back from Northampton), Dean Greyling, Jacques Potgieter and former benchwarmers Flip van der Merwe and Chiliboy Ralepelle stepped up and nothing has changed. Strong as ever.
In their final match, the team waits at Loftus for the bitter rivals from Johannesburg. The Lions, dead last on the log, come off a bonus point win over the Rebels at Ellis Park and with a lot of internal issues, the team is looking to end the season on a high. Can the Lions cause an upset or will the Bulls make the play-offs after missing it last season on the final day? There's an eerie resemblance. Last season another South African team had to go to Pretoria and play the Bulls at Loftus. The Sharks won 23-26 and the Bulls missed the play-offs on the final day. Fans hope this won't be a repeat. So what is the status? The Bulls can not win the conference anymore but have to hope the Crusaders lose to the Force so they clinch a home play-off spot. If not, they are likely to travel to Christchurch for their play-off match. If they lose and 2 of the Sharks, Reds and Hurricanes win, the Bulls can miss the play-offs again. If they do, it will be a big disappointment. Winning the competition twice in a row, only to miss out on the play-offs on the final day of the season, twice in a row.
The Sharks did themselves a huge favor by beating the Bulls last weekend at home. The 32-10 score was not at all misleading. The Sharks were fired up and with the bonuspoint they got themselves in the top 6 and have things in their own hands again. The Sharks await the Cheetahs, the team that stole the hearts of a lot of rugby fans worldwide the last few years with their gameplan. They are in 10th spot and that's the highest they can reach this year. It's their highest position on the log ever. In their inaugural season they ended 10th. After that they managed 3 times to end 11th. A win would give them their best result to date with 6 wins. That's the dangerous thing for the Sharks. They should not expect any favours from the team from Bloemfontein.
Last season the Cheetahs played in Durban on the first day of the season and failed to score a single try. In their previous encounter this season the Sharks won 20-34 in Bloemfontein, scoring 4 tries. If the Sharks manage to win, they make the play-offs. The difficult thing for the Sharks is to consider who they want to play. If things go according to plan, they play the Brumbies in Canberra when reaching 6th place. It's a better match-up than the Crusaders, with whom the Sharks have struggled for over a decade. If they win with a bonus-point, the Bulls (who play later that day) have to win with a bonus-point to stay ahead of the Sharks. If not, the Sharks travel to Christchurch. But that's just thinking way ahead. If the Sharks lose, they miss the play-offs if either the Reds or Hurricanes win their match. Can the Sharks make the play-offs again on the final day?
The Reds have struggled this entire season, after winning the competition last year. Their main cause for concern was in the fly-half position where they lost Quade Cooper even before the season started. Mike Harris stepped in and did good until he was injured in Durban when playing the Sharks. In that match the kicking duties even fell to Will Genia, who was rather unsuccesful with 0 from 2 attempts. However, the Reds haven't lost a match since round 11, when they played the Crusaders. Their opponent is a team that is out of the play-offs already. The Waratahs, in the play-offs last season, are in 11th place and have nothing to play for. It's 1 of 3 teams in a derby having no reason to step up a gear. Some people are worried that either the Lions, Cheetahs or Waratahs will go easy on their opponent to ensure their country an extra team in the play-offs.
I don't think anything like that will happen. The Reds, just like the Bulls and Sharks, cannot take anything for granted and have to earn it themselves. In round 1 of this season the 2 teams played in Sydney, with the Reds winning 21-25. Can they beat the 'Tahs again? Last season when the 2 teams played in Brisbane, the Reds won the match 19-15 with a full-house for Quade Cooper, scoring all the points. If the Reds win, they still depend on other teams slipping up. They can even win the conference, if the Brumbies lose without a bonus-point and the Reds win by scoring 4 tries. They will have the same amount of points but more wins, giving them the edge over the Brumbies despite a significant lower point difference (-4 compared to the +87 of the Brumbies). The number of wins is the first tie-breaker, followed by point difference and head-to-head results.
The 6th and final team to take a shot at the play-offs is the team from Wellington, the Hurricanes. After having a fresh start with a lot of players leaving, the team has found a new spirit. Ma'a Nonu, Piri Weepu, Andrew Hore, Aaron Cruden and Hosea Gear are some of the names that left the capitol to play elsewhere. Youngsters like Beauden Barrett, TJ Perenara, Andre Taylor, Julian Savea and Dane Coles have exceeded expectations and after a disappointing 9th place with 45 points, they have 53 now and are in 8th. It's a massive improvement and top try-scorer Andre Taylor is one of the reasons the team is edging towards the play-offs.
They have a huge task though, playing the log-leading Chiefs. The Stormers-fans will be cheering for the Hurricanes to win, so the Stormers can top the log. At the same time, winning is a threat for their fellow SA-teams Bulls and Sharks. All in all, the Hurricanes are in a position where they can only make it if 2 teams mess up. Not only do they have to pass 2 teams, they have to try to get a bonus-point. If they do, they increase their chances big time. With only 1 point less than the Sharks and Bulls, they can catch up with them if the SA teams fail to get a bonus point while winning.
Less than a win is not an option. If the team fails to win, they miss the play-offs, despite scoring the most points of all the teams in the competition. With 461 points they have far more than most of the teams above them. Only the Crusaders (447) and Bulls (435) come close to the number of points the 'Canes scored this season. If the Hurricanes make the play-offs, not only is it the first time since 2009, it will be the first time that both the New Zealand capital (Wellington) and the Australia capital (Canberra) are present in the play-offs together since 2003.
All in all it will be a nice weekend to follow and things look very interesting.
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