The Lions squad for 2021 prediction

[big ginger 8]

Jack McGrath - has had a number of injuries, is currently injured and form unfortunately dropped off a cliff. Pity as was genuinely top class

Neil Scannell - *Niall, another with loads of injuries. Probably never had the dynamism for the top level but has had good patches and obviously hard to predict who will and won't be playing four years out

Dan Leavy - had his knee destroyed was coming back strong before having season ending surgery to remove cartilage from his knee. No doubt in my mind he'd be going if fully fit.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Dan Leavy - had his knee destroyed was coming back strong before having season ending surgery to remove cartilage from his knee. No doubt in my mind he'd be going if fully fit.

Jeez, feel for the guy after such a horrendous injury and time out.

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

Do people actually like the idea of a tour captain who might not necessarily make the bench let alone start (this is the theory not the player don't make this about AWJ)? It just feels wrong, surely they should be part of the leadership but the captain should be the guy leading from the front on the field in the matches and nailed on to do that.

Not in the slightest. The figurehead is important.

Ref AWJ. Captain or not in the test 23 in my book. On form is he likely to be one of the 2 'best' locks? Probably not. But the right question to ask is whether the team would be better with him in it? If he's wearing the armband then probably, on the basis that we need leadership far more than a few extra fast twitch fibres. Lions captain is a big deal and he won't be fazed by it.

I think it's a bit rich playing the "AWJ is so overrated or over hyped" card when I have literally never in my life read a negative piece or heard of a single negative comment come out of a pundits mouth about Itoje.

Some of the press and pundits have to backtrack on AWJ coz you look a bit of a t**t when the guy leads Wales to win stuff but what's Itoje's excuse? Now, for the record, I think Itoje is a brilliant player and largely deserves all the plaudits he gets, but he hasn't come close to achieving what AWJ has in the game. Maybe he will as his career progresses but the level of vitriol AWJ gets from fans outside of Wales and how some of the English press say how AWJ is past it or what have you, is totally unbalanced in my humble opinion but I might not be aware of any negative stuff that gets said about Itoje.

There's a good deal of truth that press get perceptions of players and stick to them. Itoje's had a pretty easy ride although has copped a bit of flack recently for his discipline.

As for achievements, AWJ will be green with envy when Itoje starts flashing his Championship medal around in a few months.

 

[big ginger 8]

Jeez, feel for the guy after such a horrendous injury and time out.

The press release made it sound procedural so hopefully he'll be fully back next season. Kind of amazing he got back in the first place.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

 

[Dean Cooperfield-West]

Tbh I'd take the Hood and Ross Kemp as coaches. They can't be any worse than Woodward.

 

[BiggusLaddus]

Someone has put far too much effort into that, all the roles are relevant.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Andy Farrell could still join Lions staff, reveals Warren Gatland

Warren Gatland has said that with Ireland’s Pacific Ireland trip at risk, Andy Farrell – twice a key Lions lieutenant – could yet join the South Africa tour

www.theguardian.com

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

If/when the Pacific tour is cancelled it doesn't mean Farrell can't do anything with Irish players. A camp, in squad matches and coaching the crop of young lads who have work ons to implement before making the international grade are far more important. Itd be a huge mistake for Farrell to go.

Fortunately I reckon Gatland is just stirring the pot.

 

[TRF_heineken]

I don't think AWJ has ever had a bad game against SA. He's a workhorse and you need someone like him to do the grunt work, especially against a team like SA that thrives on the physical and grinding stuff.

To not pick him would be something I can't imagine.

 

[Jakedood]

I don't think AWJ has ever had a bad game against SA. He's a workhorse and you need someone like him to do the grunt work, especially against a team like SA that thrives on the physical and grinding stuff.

To not pick him would be something I can't imagine.

I understand exactly where you're coming from, but nearly every second row picked to go will have a seriously high work rate, Jonny Gray does, Itoje does, James Ryan does, Henderson does, and AWJ does. Lions is a step up, and for me you need more than work rate. That said, you never fully know how players will look in the systems used, and what they all bring as a unit, plus injuries are always a huge part of these tours. Anyone in the squad would be a valuable player I'm sure, and AWJ may make the team and i wouldnt say "he doesnt deserve to be there". He just wouldnt be my first choice as I think Lions needs more, and maybe a younger AWJ who effected matches by more than sheer volume, and instead by the quality of his game interventions would start. But I havent seen him really have that large impact for a while now

 

[TRF_heineken]

I understand exactly where you're coming from, but nearly every second row picked to go will have a seriously high work rate, Jonny Gray does, Itoje does, James Ryan does, Henderson does, and AWJ does. Lions is a step up, and for me you need more than work rate. That said, you never fully know how players will look in the systems used, and what they all bring as a unit, plus injuries are always a huge part of these tours. Anyone in the squad would be a valuable player I'm sure, and AWJ may make the team and i wouldnt say "he doesnt deserve to be there". He just wouldnt be my first choice as I think Lions needs more, and maybe a younger AWJ who effected matches by more than sheer volume, and instead by the quality of his game interventions would start. But I havent seen him really have that large impact for a while now

That's fair.

I was merely making a remark from a Springbok perspective as I don't see the bashing of AWJ as fair. Whereas other locks like Gray and Itoje has had terrible games against us.

I think there has to be a consideration of the opposition as well, some players just perform differently to certain teams.

 

[Jakedood]

That's fair.

I was merely making a remark from a Springbok perspective as I don't see the bashing of AWJ as fair. Whereas other locks like Gray and Itoje has had terrible games against us.

I think there has to be a consideration of the opposition as well, some players just perform differently to certain teams.

For sure, different players do well in different styles, and South african rugby is quite ingrained style wise, so I'd suggest the tour games will be a very strong indicator of who is best against it

I would however love to see both teams play to their strengths, whatever they may be, and build off of that, instead of setting out to nullify one or the other, contrasting styles make fantastic games of rugby

 

[Dean Cooperfield-West]

Just say it how it is. AWJ offers less on the pitch than others who will be in the squad (captaincy stuff aside). I'd put money on AWJ making the team a for every test and being subbed at 50. He'll make the team regardless of how he performs in any matches between now and the tests. There's too much history with Gatland and the emotion of it being his swansong for it to not happen.

It's a classic case of starting AWJ because it's AWJ rather than because of his form. I don't think anyone would deny that

 

[Welsh Exile]

I dunno. I would. His form has been good. Captained Wales to a 6 nations and played pretty well. If any player is going to play regardless of form it's Itoje who hasn't done very well but he's a class player so his form will be overlooked.

 

[big ginger 8]

It's interesting that every Lions captain to SA since 1974 has been a secondrow. Of course Geech always said he preferred a secondrow captain there and he was coach for a few. Would be interesting to see a breakdown of what positions most captains are. Would presume it's either second or backrow. People seem to prefer a captain who's in the thick of it and of course people naturally look to taller people as leaders.

 

[Jakedood]

It's interesting that every Lions captain to SA since 1974 has been a secondrow. Of course Geech always said he preferred a secondrow captain there and he was coach for a few. Would be interesting to see a breakdown of what positions most captains are. Would presume it's either second or backrow. People seem to prefer a captain who's in the thick of it and of course people naturally look to taller people as leaders.

Seems to be a recent trend of hookers being captains, for the front row being able to talk to the ref etc

I dunno. I would. His form has been good. Captained Wales to a 6 nations and played pretty well. If any player is going to play regardless of form it's Itoje who hasn't done very well but he's a class player so his form will be overlooked.

Itoje was a bit of a penalty count pushing boundaries the last six nations, but he did still have an impact on games on the field with his physicality, generally pain in the ass defense, and is brilliant in the clearout as well as a strong and fast/agile carrier. I think he's earned the right, as long as he isnt pants in the majority of warmup games

Just say it how it is. AWJ offers less on the pitch than others who will be in the squad (captaincy stuff aside). I'd put money on AWJ making the team a for every test and being subbed at 50. He'll make the team regardless of how he performs in any matches between now and the tests. There's too much history with Gatland and the emotion of it being his swansong for it to not happen.

It's a classic case of starting AWJ because it's AWJ rather than because of his form. I don't think anyone would deny that

AWJ is a good player, and I think thats being overlooked a little here, but take everything out of it, Gats didnt start Sam Warburton despite him being Welsh and Tour captain in First test in 2017, favouring Obrien and OMahony instead. I think he'll want to win and be the most successful lions coach, even if he picked a team full of Englishmen to do it

 

[TRF_heineken]

Just say it how it is. AWJ offers less on the pitch than others who will be in the squad (captaincy stuff aside). I'd put money on AWJ making the team a for every test and being subbed at 50. He'll make the team regardless of how he performs in any matches between now and the tests. There's too much history with Gatland and the emotion of it being his swansong for it to not happen.

It's a classic case of starting AWJ because it's AWJ rather than because of his form. I don't think anyone would deny that

I don't think it's as straight forward as that. It depends on the roles of each player. If a player like AWJ makes only 20 tackles in a match, but doesn't do much else, but he prevents the opposition from getting over the advantage line or scoring tries. Instead of having a guy make 5-7 tackles, have 3 carries with not a lot of metres gained and maybe 1 or 2 turnovers, then who is the better player?

 

[dullonien]

Pretty sure last time I looked at the stats from 6 nations just gone AWJ had more tackles, more carries and more metres per carry than any other second row.

He had a quiet end of '19 and '20, and I too was starting to question whether age had caught up with him, but he was fantastic in the 6 nations and deserves to be in the mix for a starting test spot on form alone. The fact that he's also the best captain available put's him right at the front of the queue atm. That can change of course though.

His lineout credentials 'aint great mind. Falls well behind the likes of Itoje there. Wales rely heavily on Tipuric as a jumper.

 

[big ginger 8]

Pretty sure last time I looked at the stats from 6 nations just gone AWJ had more tackles, more carries and more metres per carry than any other second row.

He had a quiet end of '19 and '20, and I too was starting to question whether age had caught up with him, but he was fantastic in the 6 nations and deserves to be in the mix for a starting test spot on form alone. The fact that he's also the best captain available put's him right at the front of the queue atm. That can change of course though.

His lineout credentials 'aint great mind. Falls well behind the likes of Itoje there. Wales rely heavily on Tipuric as a jumper.

Had the most tackles, Welsh players in general ranked very high in tackles made.

If you count Beirne as a secondrow he had way more metres and carries than any other lock but obviously did play two games at 6. His m/c were also way higher. In terms of guys who just played secondrow AWJ had the most carries but Henderson had more metres and seemingly every Scottish lock weirdly had better m/c.

As you say his lineout ain't great. Only took three all tournament and stole one. Henderson had the most won for any secondrow with 15. Ryan is credited with the most steals 3 (in 3 games!) I know he lead the tournament in lineout steals but am unsure about the accuracy of the numbers. Ireland were credited with 14 lineout steals across the tournament but according to individual player stats there were only 8.

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