The Lions squad for 2021 prediction

[TRF_heineken]

According to stat in the Times today only 278k of total dose have been administered in SA so far or 0.5% of population. That compares to 46.9% or 31 million administered so far in the UK and we started in December.

I have read it is at least 70% of population in order to achieve herd immunity.

Can't be. Over a million healthcare workers already got the vaccine.

And remember, we don't have to get 2 jabs like in the UK. It's just 1 injection...

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Can't be. Over a million healthcare workers already got the vaccine.

And remember, we don't have to get 2 jabs like in the UK. It's just 1 injection...

Still a stretch that 29 million will be administered in 2 and half months. Why the rush for the Lions anyway? Better to it done then get it done just for a Lions tour.

And Pfizer is 2 jabs if you're going by your 9 million.

 

[ncurd]

Can't be. Over a million healthcare workers already got the vaccine.

And remember, we don't have to get 2 jabs like in the UK. It's just 1 injection...

UK figures only really count first dose we actually need 200% of doses as do a lot of countries.

Either way whilst I always hope for the best it seams wildly optimistic to have a world beating vaccination roll-out program. The only country to have sudden explosion is Uruguay and its population is 3.47M total.

The UK and USA are the only two countries to have populations over 10M to have administered over 13% of doses (Germany way behind in third place) and they have massive infrastructure and economies to do that.

Source:

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations

Our vaccination dataset uses the most recent official numbers from governments and health ministries worldwide. Population estimates for per-capita metrics are based on the United Nations World Population Prospects. Income groups are based on the World Bank classification. A full list of our...

ourworldindata.org

 

[TRF_heineken]

Still a stretch that 29 million will be administered in 2 and half months. Why the rush for the Lions anyway? Better to it done then get it done just for a Lions tour.

And Pfizer is 2 jabs if you're going by your 9 million.

True. Although, we have 31 million J&J vaccines ready to be used, it's just about the approvals to go through, and the distribution of it that must be finalized.

Our Health Minister has mentioned that the Pfizer vaccines, which must be kept in -70 degrees containers, will be kept in the Metropolitan areas where they have storage containers. And these Pfizer vaccines will be mostly used in the hospitals where Patients that needs long term care will be getting the 2 jabs.

And it's not about the Lions tour at all. It's about the Winter. And Winter is coming. The plan is to get as many people vaccinated before our winter is in full swing.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

True. Although, we have 31 million J&J vaccines ready to be used, it's just about the approvals to go through, and the distribution of it that must be finalized.

Our Health Minister has mentioned that the Pfizer vaccines, which must be kept in -70 degrees containers, will be kept in the Metropolitan areas where they have storage containers. And these Pfizer vaccines will be mostly used in the hospitals where Patients that needs long term care will be getting the 2 jabs.

And it's not about the Lions tour at all. It's about the Winter. And Winter is coming. The plan is to get as many people vaccinated before our winter is in full swing.

Oh right sounded like posting in this thread you wanted as many vaccinated to have full stadia.

Indeed.

 

[TRF_heineken]

Oh right sounded like posting in this thread you wanted as many vaccinated to have full stadia.

Indeed.

View attachment 10513

The tour does play an impact though, because it's such a boost to the country from an economical stance, as well as that it's the springboks and the significance of being world champs with a black captain. Our Government is taking note that this will have an impact locally, and therefore it has been part of the discussions in regards to getting people vaccinated as fast as possible.

Many people are now beginning to ask what is taking the tender process so long to get the distributions going, as the vaccines are ready.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

The tour does play an impact though, because it's such a boost to the country from an economical stance, as well as that it's the springboks and the significance of being world champs with a black captain. Our Government is taking note that this will have an impact locally, and therefore it has been part of the discussions in regards to getting people vaccinated as fast as possible.

Many people are now beginning to ask what is taking the tender process so long to get the distributions going, as the vaccines are ready.

Do Saffers want UK fans coming to SA if they haven't been fully vaccinated? Especially in light of the B117 variant running through Europe and USA. Likely that the tour will be played but whether it is behind closed doors (no fans) or restricted SA local fans only is the question now. SA likely to be on red according to our traffic light system when travel restrictions are lifted, so going to increase costs for any fans allowed/ going so less money to spend out in SA if they have to quarantine in return or prove negative.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Do Saffers want UK fans coming to SA if they haven't been fully vaccinated? Especially in light of the B117 variant running through Europe and USA. Likely that the tour will be played but whether it is behind closed doors (no fans) or restricted SA local fans only is the question now. SA likely to be on red according to our traffic light system when travel restrictions are lifted, so going to increase costs for any fans allowed/ going so less money to spend out in SA if they have to quarantine in return or prove negative.

I imagine that South Africa will be on a no fly list for travel for a while after things start opening up - the Oxford vaccine doesn't work as well vs the dominant strain in SA, and that's what the lions share of our vaccinated have been given

 

[TRF_heineken]

Do Saffers want UK fans coming to SA if they haven't been fully vaccinated? Especially in light of the B117 variant running through Europe and USA. Likely that the tour will be played but whether it is behind closed doors (no fans) or restricted SA local fans only is the question now. SA likely to be on red according to our traffic light system when travel restrictions are lifted, so going to increase costs for any fans allowed/ going so less money to spend out in SA if they have to quarantine in return or prove negative.

Well, I think that all depends on whether or not we can achieve herd-immunisation this side.

If the majority of people in the metro areas where the stadiums are, and where the infections are immunised, the threat of contracting the virus either way would be low. The Vaccines in SA are designed to fight the SA-variant as well with a 92% success rate.

At the moment it does seem like if fans will be allowed, it will only be locals.

 

[ChicagoKid]

Luckily for the world, US herd immunity will happen faster than expected. In less than two weeks, everyone over 18 is eligible for the vaccine and we are approaching 4 million doses per day. By July 1st, if not sooner, we will have achieved herd immunity and the big vaccine manufactures will begin heavily targeting international markets.

It makes sense Johnson & Johnson is selling approximately 300 million doses to Africa because 1.) You only need 1 shot 2.) Doesn't require extreme cold storage 3.) It was late to the US market and Pfrizer/Moderna have dominated vaccinations here in the states.

I expect SA to have 75%+ capacity for the Lions tour.

And please do not read/watch/listen to our media, just look at the data and projections. Our media ecosystem cannot function without fear. And now that Trump is gone, ratings are down 30-50 percent for cable news so they are ramping up all types of dumb/crazy stories.

 

[McTallshort]

Luckily for the world, US herd immunity will happen faster than expected. In less than two weeks, everyone over 18 is eligible for the vaccine and we are approaching 4 million doses per day. By July 1st, if not sooner, we will have achieved herd immunity and the big vaccine manufactures will begin heavily targeting international markets.

It makes sense Johnson & Johnson is selling approximately 300 million doses to Africa because 1.) You only need 1 shot 2.) Doesn't require extreme cold storage 3.) It was late to the US market and Pfrizer/Moderna have dominated vaccinations here in the states.

I expect SA to have 75%+ capacity for the Lions tour.

And please do not read/watch/listen to our media, just look at the data and projections. Our media ecosystem cannot function without fear. And now that Trump is gone, ratings are down 30-50 percent for cable news so they are ramping up all types of dumb/crazy stories.

Yes we are so lucky. Thanks for saving our asses again

 

[duncanb]

Yes we are so lucky. Thanks for saving our asses again

Great news again, however no doubt the association with J&J and blood clots it could go same way as AZ of course only for the neh sayers.
I'm 100% happy to have had AZ even though a blood clot caused my own heart attack.
Won't stop me having 2nd AZ in a month.

 

[ChicagoKid]

Yes we are so lucky. Thanks for saving our asses again

I'm a newbie, Tallshort, so I don't know if there is sarcasm or not. If it is, I didn't mean to come across as an arrogant American.

A better way to phrase my statement: Fortunately, previous US herd immunity projections were too cautious. At around 4m doses a day, we should reach herd immunity as soon as mid-June. That means for companies like J&J, AstraZeneca and others, they need to reprioritize foreign markets NOW to maximize profits. No reason producing US-based vaccines when demand will approximately fall to nearly zero by July 4th holiday. It's one reason why it makes sense for J&J to focus on Africa.

Within a few weeks, I think you'll see daily dosage rates hit 5 or even 6m per day. All over America they are opening massive sports stadium and vaccinating 10's of thousands of people per day at these sites.

Probably the best account of America with all our foibles and follies is that famous quote by Churchill, "Americans will always do the right thing, only after they have tried everything else."

The man was spot-on in that assessment.

 

[ChicagoKid]

Great news again, however no doubt the association with J&J and blood clots it could go same way as AZ of course only for the neh sayers.
I'm 100% happy to have had AZ even though a blood clot caused my own heart attack.
Won't stop me having 2nd AZ in a month.

If our incompetent FDA approved it, I think it's pretty safe. I've been reading a lot of criticism about our FDA not approving AstraZeneca with the trials apparently very safe in the grand scheme of medical trials.

Also, I've seen how the Moderna, Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson are all extremely effective on the British and South Africa strains.

Basically, if I was a Lions fan and had the money to travel to SA, I would 100 percent book it and have zero concerns.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

British & Irish Lions to tour South Africa with no England coaches

The British & Irish Lions coaching staff for the tour of South Africa is set to include no members of the England setup for the first time this century

www.theguardian.com

 

[Bada-Bing!]

If our incompetent FDA approved it, I think it's pretty safe. I've been reading a lot of criticism about our FDA not approving AstraZeneca with the trials apparently very safe in the grand scheme of medical trials.

Also, I've seen how the Moderna, Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson are all extremely effective on the British and South Africa strains.

Basically, if I was a Lions fan and had the money to travel to SA, I would 100 percent book it and have zero concerns.

As pointed out the AZ vaccine has been shown as not to be effective against the B1351 or so called SA variant of the strain mild to moderate symptoms and makes up a large proportion of the 31 million vaccinated so far. And we'd rather keep that variant out of the UK as much as possible.

We don't even know if SA will be on the red traffic light system (making it even more expensive for the normal fan) or even no fly for most British fans post May 17th.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

British & Irish Lions to tour South Africa with no England coaches

The British & Irish Lions coaching staff for the tour of South Africa is set to include no members of the England setup for the first time this century

www.theguardian.com

It makes sense, England are a mess atm
I would've thought Proudfoot would be up there as a choice (great coach and also inside knowledge) but Rowntree is an excellent coach and has a good bit of history with the Lions as both player and coach

Borthwick/Rowntree/Farrell is a very England heavy coaching setup even if none are employed by the RFU at the moment

 

[big ginger 8]

When's the last time a country's HC went on a Lions tour as an assistant coach? Wouldn't be super happy about Farrell going, especially if we do end up having a tour ourselves.

 

[ChicagoKid]

Is there any rules about having a selection from each country? Say one side was particularly awful and no players deserved to be selected, would that be okay?

 

[McTallshort]

Is there any rules about having a selection from each country? Say one side was particularly awful and no players deserved to be selected, would that be okay?

There are no rules. There used to be horse trading with selection to try and get an even spread but the last time that happened was 93. Now it's totally up to the coaching team who goes. Scotland have struggled in recent years to get anyone in the squad although that will probably change this year