TRF's UEFA Euro 2016

[Leonormous Boozer]

@cruz del Sur wanted to be Belgium!

Will be in Portugal on Sunday so I hope they go on and win it!

 

[Cruz_del_Sur]

Feel bad for the welsh but to be completely honest, they've got no one but themselves to blame. Their tactical approach for the game was appalling. I'm talking mistakes amateur teams hardly ever do.
Don't think it'll matter anyway. France and Germany are both looking quite strong.

 

[RedruthRFC]

Feel bad for the welsh but to be completely honest, they've got no one but themselves to blame. Their tactical approach for the game was appalling. I'm talking mistakes amateur teams hardly ever do.

I'm not sure that's entirely fair. At least some of the blame must rest with UEFA's atypical yellow card rule.

Don't think it'll matter anyway. France and Germany are both looking quite strong.

The fact that Portugal have made the final despite only having outscored their opponents in open play once illustrates to me the massive degree of variance at play in soccerball. The winner of today's semi-final will no doubt start the final as favourites to lift the trophy, but I'd suggest that it's far from a foregone conclusion, particularly given the amount of dog that Portugal have shown in order to reach the final.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

I'm not sure that's entirely fair. At least some of the blame must rest with UEFA's atypical yellow card rule.

I don't think that's fair, two yellows in 6 games is what you need to get a suspension, in the BPL it's 5 in 38 (suspensions carry from one season to the next I believe)

To to get a suspension in this competition you needed to get a yellow card in 33% of your games, Ramsay and other Welsh player got yellows in 40% of theirs, you'd miss approximately 5 league games in the BPL with that strike rate because the suspension gets increased by one match every five cards you get.

 

[Cruz_del_Sur]

Nah, you cant blame a rule if

a) you knew about it in advance
b) it's applicable to everyone

Their strat was simply dumb. Bale taking a 45 meter free kick was a perfect example of how clueless they were last night.

The fact that Portugal have made the final despite only having outscored their opponents in open play once illustrates to me the massive degree of variance at play in soccerball. The winner of today's semi-final will no doubt start the final as favourites to lift the trophy, but I'd suggest that it's far from a foregone conclusion, particularly given the amount of dog that Portugal have shown in order to reach the final.

I could use a regression to the mean analysis to support my argument but i won't. And the statistical variance between favorite and winner is probably one of the reasons football is the most popular sport in the planet.

It's not about who won, but about how they won. Transitivity is quite poor in football compared to other sports. France's and Germany's style is a stone to Portugal's scissors, while they've been facing mostly paper so far.
Portugal's possession hasn't been seriously challenged yet (croatia had a bad day). They have been very lucky in that sense. That won't be the case against France nor Germany. That will undermine Portugal's entire plan and they don't really have a plan B. Sure, anything can happen but both teams tend dominate possession and are clinical enough when they reach their opponents area. That is exactly what Portugal would like to avoid. They'd have a much, much better chance against a team like say, Italy.

 

[RedruthRFC]

Never heard of variance? Percentages like this don't work over such a small sample size.

FWIW I wasn't saying that the bans themselves are unfair, just that it was unfair to say that the blame for Wales' exit lies with them 100% as this rule is atypical. If it is rolled out across all other major tournaments, I would retract that and just say that Wales were unlucky to be playing in the first tournament with the new rule.

 

[die_mole]

Variance is the reason that knockout tournaments are so exciting and also why the best team almost never wins (soccer seems to have the best team win a little more than usual).

Yes the yellow card rule was dumb since they expanded the knockout from 8 to 16 teams buy everyone knew the rules going into it.

 

[Thingimubob]

Yeah we didn't get the tactics right against Portugal. Losing Ramsey was massive, and I was hoping we'd go for a relatively like for like replacement in Jonny Williams. Instead we went for the more solid but conservative approach and started Andy King. Same for Collins in defense, he's a solid defensive option, but a more like for like (with a bit of potential re-shuffling) replacement for the attacking Ben Davies might have been Jazz (Ashley) Richards.

Think we were just a bit worried about the counter attacking threat Portugal carried, so decided to go a bit more defensive. Pity really as we've looked quality when we've passed the ball about, and would've been a good test of Williams stepping into Ramsey's role.

Either way, what a ride! Been an incredible few weeks to be a Welsh fan, and still have to pinch myself to believe that we were even in the semi finals! If someone had told me 2 years ago when we were 1-0 down away to Andorra in the first qualifying game, that we'd get to the semi finals - I'd have called them mad :lol:

Diolch bois! Gorau Chwarae Cyd Chwarae!

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

France looking rather potent here, can't see the winner of this not beating Portugal.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

I know the Welsh Football has it tough but looking at this video they can't even afford Weights.

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/...1583742?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

DYEL bro.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

4mins added time!

Have 2quid on France 2-0 with Griezmann to score, returns 102!

 

[profitius]

I thought the "French" got very lucky tonight.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Come on Portugal!! Would love to see Ronaldo add something that Messi will now never do in winning a finals tournament.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Come on Portugal!! Would love to see Ronaldo add something that Messi will now never do in winning a finals tournament.

You've cursed Ronaldo now!!!

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

You've cursed Ronaldo now!!!

Feels weird feeling sorry for one of the richest and most adored men in sport who goes out with supermodel after supermodel but damn if I didn't have a tear in my eye!

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

What a goal worth the wait.

Heartbreaking for the French mind

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Amazing how history flips on its head. 12 years ago Portugual as hosts lost to Greece in the final, and now France as hosts lose to Portugual.

 

[Cruz_del_Sur]

Come on Portugal!! Would love to see Ronaldo add something that Messi will now never do in winning a finals tournament.

Let's not get carried away, shall we?
We've reached the final in the last 3 tournaments we've played. We lost none of those in regular time and in all of them we had at least 2 megasupercrystalclear chances to score and missed them all. In all we had at least 2 starters injured. There is probably a psychological issue, but luck hasn't been on our side and luck plays quite a role in football.
Not saying i am optimistic about our future, but i wasn't very optimistic in the WC either and we nearly got away with murder.
On a decent day, we can beat any team we're up against. If messi is having a good day, pray to jesus, thor, zeus and Ra because you will need most of them to stop him.

BTW, i won, which unequivocally means i am right an everyone who dares to contradict me is wrong.

PS: kindly disregard every single prediction i've made during the competition.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Let's not get carried away, shall we?
We've reached the final in the last 3 tournaments we've played. We lost none of those in regular time and in all of them we had at least 2 megasupercrystalclear chances to score and missed them all. In all we had at least 2 starters injured. There is probably a psychological issue, but luck hasn't been on our side and luck plays quite a role in football.
Not saying i am optimistic about our future, but i wasn't very optimistic in the WC either and we nearly got away with murder.
On a decent day, we can beat any team we're up against. If messi is having a good day, pray to jesus, thor, zeus and Ra because you will need most of them to stop him.

BTW, i won, which unequivocally means i am right an everyone who dares to contradict me is wrong.

PS: kindly disregard every single prediction i've made during the competition.

Not meant as a slight against Argentina, I just firmly prefer Ronaldo to Messi and unless his "retirement" was just to take attention away from Chile winning history will show that Ronaldo win something with his country and Messi never did despite everything being in favour of the patters chances. Congratulations on being TRF's finest!

Dull game, great result, wish I wasn't out here with the family so I could go hard on the beer!