A Political Thread pt. 2

[Saintjay]

The thing is, he has a large majority in terms of seats but very little in terms of vote share. It won't take much of a swing to obliterate that majority.

I think it would be interesting to know how many of those that support PR. Would they feel the same with the swell of support to Reform.

 

[Welsh Exile]

I think it would be interesting to know how many of those that support PR. Would they feel the same with the swell of support to Reform.

I would. I thought it was a joke UKIP won 4 million votes or whatever it was back in the day and got, what?, 1 seat.

Just because I find them despicable that’s democracy at the end of the day.

 

[General Melchett]

Farage as PM almost feels like that inevitable experiment that you know will end badly but those who voted him in won't take any responsibility for it and will eventually jump back to the Tories/Labour.

Reform in power just feels like Brexit mark 2. Farage and Johnson were the two leading Brexit voices and many seem to have convinced themselves that Brexit could have been a success under Farage and that it was the Tories that messed it up.

 

[dirty harry]

Farage as PM almost feels like that inevitable experiment that you know will end badly but those who voted him in won't take any responsibility for it and will eventually jump back to the Tories/Labour.

Reform in power just feels like Brexit mark 2.

Disagree, it will be far far worse!!! Imagine all the Trump BS with deportations, Britain first policies etc.. that hysteria and constant court battles will set us back 10 years. We don't have the system to deal with that mess!

 

[General Melchett]

Disagree, it will be far far worse!!! Imagine all the Trump BS with deportations, Britain first policies etc.. that hysteria and constant court battles will set us back 10 years. We don't have the system to deal with that mess!

Yeah in a country as culturally diverse as ours I dread to think what the civil unrest would be like if far right white supremacists thought they had been validated with a Reform election win. Even straight after the Brexit vote Europeans were being told to go back to their own country.

 

[dirty harry]

Yeah in a country as culturally diverse as ours I dread to think what the civil unrest would be like if far right white supremacists thought they had been validated with a Reform election win. Even after Brexit Europeans were being told to go back to their own country.

I think white supremecy is massively overblown in the UK, a couple dozen arrests and a group ban per year is about what happens, even the BNP membership is a few thousand.

I'm more concerned of the mass rhetoric on social media, reactions by the main stream, and perceived unjust nature of the government to give preferential treatment to non citizens.



Look at the reaction to the Southport riots, media claims catastrophising of outside far right groups agitating etc, all proved false by police investigations, local media in each city talking about violent actions, curfews, and attacks on Muslims, Politicians promoting lies on social media, the backlash of Muslim gangs taking over streets with weapons, and claims of gangs of Muslim / white gangs hunting down the other on the streets etc...

I was given half days for a week, to ensure I got home safe lol, I spent most evenings volunteering, I was at Mosques, a church and at a soup kitchen and there was nothing to fear, except high anxiety from everyone worried about the other coming for them.

Look on social media, the terms 'noticing' 'black fatigue' and 'ashamed of nothing, offended by everything' have become popularised, and are essentially racist dog whistles of non white people committing crimes, acting 'anti british' etc (although they lend themselves to US culture more, but borrowed to British culture).

If Farage manages to become a true challenger in a few years, Labour and Tories can counter it in 1 of 2 ways, they can be rationale, show a level decorum and rebuke the stupidity, or they can be wrong, and call every support racist deplorable, attack and fear monger, and eventually fail, and in that failing contribute to the civil issues that are to come.

Do you trust these politicians to do the right thing?

Apologies for the rant lol

 

[General Melchett]

I think white supremecy is massively overblown in the UK, a couple dozen arrests and a group ban per year is about what happens, even the BNP membership is a few thousand.

I'm more concerned of the mass rhetoric on social media, reactions by the main stream, and perceived unjust nature of the government to give preferential treatment to non citizens.



Look at the reaction to the Southport riots, media claims catastrophising of outside far right groups agitating etc, all proved false by police investigations, local media in each city talking about violent actions, curfews, and attacks on Muslims, Politicians promoting lies on social media, the backlash of Muslim gangs taking over streets with weapons, and claims of gangs of Muslim / white gangs hunting down the other on the streets etc...

I was given half days for a week, to ensure I got home safe lol, I spent most evenings volunteering, I was at Mosques, a church and at a soup kitchen and there was nothing to fear, except high anxiety from everyone worried about the other coming for them.

Look on social media, the terms 'noticing' 'black fatigue' and 'ashamed of nothing, offended by everything' have become popularised, and are essentially racist dog whistles of non white people committing crimes, acting 'anti british' etc (although they lend themselves to US culture more, but borrowed to British culture).

If Farage manages to become a true challenger in a few years, Labour and Tories can counter it in 1 of 2 ways, they can be rationale, show a level decorum and rebuke the stupidity, or they can be wrong, and call every support racist deplorable, attack and fear monger, and eventually fail, and in that failing contribute to the civil issues that are to come.

Do you trust these politicians to do the right thing?

Apologies for the rant lol

It's not really a matter of whether I trust them or not. For all his faults I think Starmer handled last summer's riots pretty well and didn't hesitate to call out the far right. Offenders were named, shamed and up in front of judges pretty swiftly with many getting a long stretch inside.

Farage could easily get cancelled in the same way Corbyn was over antisemitism. I wouldn't underestimate the power of the British establishment. Farage's challenge is to keep Reform squeaky clean which won't be easy given that there are plenty of unsavoury people who are trying to attach themselves to Reform (some already have). One or two anti-muslim incidents and he has a big problem. Plus there are a lot of moving parts. We are already seeing cracks in the Trump administration with leading GOP voices backing Musk's opposition to the big bill. If Trump's approval ratings plummit and he is a lame duck two years from now then perhaps Farage won't want to be so closely associated with him. A lot can happen in the next four years.

 

[ncurd]

Farage could easily get cancelled in the same way Corbyn was over antisemitism. I wouldn't underestimate the power of the British establishment.

Sorry have to say the difference between Farage and Corbyn. Is Farage actively engages in dog whistle politics. It isn't a smear or could be consitituted as one.

I dont hold truck for Corbyn either but I think it's unfair to suggest Farage getting cancelled for stuff he's actively doing.

I would. I thought it was a joke UKIP won 4 million votes or whatever it was back in the day and got, what?, 1 seat.

Just because I find them despicable that's democracy at the end of the day.

This! And I think many long term proponents of PR agree. We know the problem statement but it's matter if principal rather than advantage.

 

[General Melchett]

Sorry have to say the difference between Farage and Corbyn. Is Farage actively engages in dog whistle politics. It isn't a smear or could be consitituted as one.

I dont hold truck for Corbyn either but I think it's unfair to suggest Farage getting cancelled for stuff he's actively doing.

This! And I think many long term proponents of PR agree. We know the problem statement but it's matter if principal rather than advantage.

Without meaning to sound defensive I never said they were similar or suggested Farage 'should' be cancelled for things he has done until now. I was referring to incidents that could easily happen given the history of poor candidate vetting and certain unsavoury people attaching themselves to Reform. I think he has a big challenge in keeping that party squeaky clean.

 

[dirty harry]

It's not really a matter of whether I trust them or not. For all his faults I think Starmer handled last summer's riots pretty well and didn't hesitate to call out the far right. Offenders were named, shamed and up in front of judges pretty swiftly.

Farage could easily get cancelled in the same way Corbyn was over antisemitism. I wouldn't underestimate the power of the British establishment. Farage's challenge is to keep Reform squeaky clean which won't be easy given that there are plenty of unsavoury people who are trying to attach themselves to Reform (some already have). One or two anti-muslim incidents and he has a big problem. Plus there are a lot of moving parts. We are already seeing cracks in the Trump administration with leading GOP voices backing Musk's opposition to the big bill. If Trump's approval ratings plummit and he is a lame duck two years from now then perhaps Farage won't want to be so closely associated with him. A lot can happen in the next four years.

Agreed, regarding Farage. I can't imagine he can keep Reform in line, or juggle that many balls, under such media scrutiny without major issues. That's why I was, and still am half expecting him to capitalise on his recent success with a Tory leadership run. I'm not sure on the logistics of that, or if it's possible, but they are primed with a leadership vacuum and a party on skid row.

You'd expect Starmer to be strong on the riots, it's literally his specialty, however inquiries, learning lessons, and dealing with the backlash of the quick and brutal criminalisations he's gone a bit AWOL. Police confirmed that claims of the riots being right wing thugs were false, 80% of people involved being local to Southport, (EDIT, i havnt rechecked that stat) but there's been no inquiries or debriefs since has there? Hasn't there just been an inquiry started into the attack itself?

Kier had a difficult start, and public trust has plummeted as he absolutely demolished the most vulnerable, U turned on tax increases, that were not technically tax increases, and now could well announce actual tax increases. The 2 tier kier moniker has stuck, and he is having to walk a tight rope of looking like he's combating far right, while not pandering to Islam too much, AND ensuring he appeases the Muslim base Labour courted.

My biggest fear if Reform continue to rise, Farage makes a genuine run at PM, and Kier pulls a Hillary Clinton and goes full on divisive attack, like it wouldn't be bad enough Farage would be challenging, but to alienate and entrench his base, and force large swathes of the country to pick a team, British vs others, leading to a decade of US style hysterics and BS.

 

[odw26]

I believe Reform's performance at the last council elections could genuinely lead to long-term positives as it has shown the major political parties just how out of touch they are with the general public. It's far better for that realisation to have come now, when Reform have gained little actual power, than a few years down the line during a general election when they could gain genuine control. It appeared as though Starmer and the Conservatives took Reform's threat seriously in the aftermath of the council elections, but how they act over the next two years is going to be critical because, if they fail to realign themselves with the general public, we could be in for a painful few years which could continue to polarise society.

 

[McTallshort]

I believe Reform's performance at the last council elections could genuinely lead to long-term positives as it has shown the major political parties just how out of touch they are with the general public. It's far better for that realisation to have come now, when Reform have gained little actual power, than a few years down the line during a general election when they could gain genuine control. It appeared as though Starmer and the Conservatives took Reform's threat seriously in the aftermath of the council elections, but how they act over the next two years is going to be critical because, if they fail to realign themselves with the general public, we could be in for a painful few years which could continue to polarise society.

This does happen in waves. The BNP, UKIP etc etc do get a burst of success normally after a crisis or a Labour government gets elected but Reform is something different and they have been far more successful than any "alternative" party in the last election cycle. Farage is a pretty good political operator having spent many years as an MEP, achieving Brexit and is now an MP and leader of the current populist right party. Do not underestimate him, he knows how to win and how to survive in politics.

 

[General Melchett]

I believe Reform's performance at the last council elections could genuinely lead to long-term positives as it has shown the major political parties just how out of touch they are with the general public. It's far better for that realisation to have come now, when Reform have gained little actual power, than a few years down the line during a general election when they could gain genuine control. It appeared as though Starmer and the Conservatives took Reform's threat seriously in the aftermath of the council elections, but how they act over the next two years is going to be critical because, if they fail to realign themselves with the general public, we could be in for a painful few years which could continue to polarise society.

Great post. I love the idea of British politics having a disrupter. It's much needed. I'm just a bit disappointed that it's not a liberal center left party that is doing the disrupting. No matter how fed up I am of the Tories or Labour I just don't believe that Farage will make things better. All I see is a more isolated Britain in Europe and a more divided country that becomes even more subservient to American conservatives.

I've said before that Farage is a brilliant communicator and without him Reform would be a nothing party. If only the Lib Dems had more backing and a leader who could communicate and resonate with people like him.

 

[McTallshort]

Is Harry being all agreeable tonight because he made a twat out of himself earlier with those dodgy links?

 

[odw26]

This does happen in waves. The BNP, UKIP etc etc do get a burst of success normally after a crisis or a Labour government gets elected but Reform is something different and they have been far more successful than any "alternative" party in the last election cycle. Farage is a pretty good political operator having spent many years as an MEP, achieving Brexit and is now an MP and leader of the current populist right party. Do not underestimate him, he knows how to win and how to survive in politics.

I was thinking about how we'd seen this before with UKIP etc., and you're right, this does feel different. I think it's a reflection on just how different the political landscape is today compared to what it was a decade ago when UKIP were at their prime. Farage is a very good politician, and it'll be interesting to see how Labour and the Tories respond to him as I don't think they can outright oppose him, I think that'll just play into his/his supporters hands.

 

[McTallshort]

I was thinking about how we'd seen this before with UKIP etc., and you're right, this does feel different. I think it's a reflection on just how different the political landscape is today compared to what it was a decade ago when UKIP were at their prime. Farage is a very good politician, and it'll be interesting to see how Labour and the Tories respond to him as I don't think they can outright oppose him, I think that'll just play into his/his supporters hands.

It's different because since COVID the "alternative" view point has become more mainstream just look at America. Farage is cashing in on this like he cashed in on anti EU feelings

 

[odw26]

Great post. I love the idea of British politics having a disrupter. It's much needed. I'm just a bit disappointed that it's not a liberal center left party that is doing the disrupting. No matter how fed up I am of the Tories or Labour I just don't believe that Farage will make things better. All I see is a more isolated Britain in Europe and a more divided country that becomes even more subservient to American conservatives.

I've said before that Farage is a brilliant communicator and without him Reform would be a nothing party. If only the Lib Dems had more backing and a leader who could communicate and resonate with people like him.

Agree with all of this.

 

[General Melchett]

.

I was thinking about how we'd seen this before with UKIP etc., and you're right, this does feel different. I think it's a reflection on just how different the political landscape is today compared to what it was a decade ago when UKIP were at their prime. Farage is a very good politician, and it'll be interesting to see how Labour and the Tories respond to him as I don't think they can outright oppose him, I think that'll just play into his/his supporters hands.

I think Labour's best bet is to be ready to capitalise on any Reform scandals or incidents and put the heat on Farage as party leader. Also be ready to attack their record in local government. Better still, get Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart to do it so Labour don't get accused of.mud slinging. Trump used Musk to do a lot of his mud slinging on X.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

I believe Reform's performance at the last council elections could genuinely lead to long-term positives as it has shown the major political parties just how out of touch they are with the general public. It's far better for that realisation to have come now, when Reform have gained little actual power, than a few years down the line during a general election when they could gain genuine control. It appeared as though Starmer and the Conservatives took Reform's threat seriously in the aftermath of the council elections, but how they act over the next two years is going to be critical because, if they fail to realign themselves with the general public, we could be in for a painful few years which could continue to polarise society.

Generally the main point of being out of touch is immigration and it's been that way for ages. I think those who want to completely shut the borders have to accept that jobs will go unfilled as a result. Those who are advocates of keeping immigration levels high are ignoring the very real fears of people feeling their culture is being hollowed out and replaced. Statistically native Brits will be a minority in Britain in a few decades. I can't think of any society in history that would have no suffered some social upheaval if that happened.

 

[McTallshort]

Generally the main point of being out of touch is immigration and it's been that way for ages. I think those who want to completely shut the borders have to accept that jobs will go unfilled as a result. Those who are advocates of keeping immigration levels high are ignoring the very real fears of people feeling their culture is being hollowed out and replaced. Statistically native Brits will be a minority in Britain in a few decades. I can't think of any society in history that would have no suffered some social upheaval if that happened.

Or you do what the Tories did and talk tough on immigration but let record numbers of migrants in, it's a bit like talking austerity but then having record levels of borrowing