[2014 EOYT] Wales

[MojoPin]

Gareth Davies has been ruled out for 12 weeks with a knee injury.
Rhys Webb, Phillips, and Rhodri in the squad?

Definitely Phillips and Webb. Can't call it on who will start against the Wallabies...I think I'd like to see Webb given a start so we can see how his partnership with Biggar translates to the big occasions. But a big fan of Phillips too so we'll see! Rhodri certainly seems likely to join them based purely on previous squad selections, but I'd be curious to see Lewis Jones or maybe even Lloyd Williams given a chance.

Such a shame Gareth Davies has missed out though, such a tough call between him and Webb!

 

[MojoPin]

Full squad:

Forwards: Gethin Jenkins (Cardiff Blues), Paul James (Bath Rugby), Nicky Smith (Ospreys), Richard Hibbard (Gloucester Rugby), Emyr Phillips (Scarlets), Scott Baldwin (Ospreys), Aaron Jarvis (Ospreys), Samson Lee (Scarlets), Rhodri Jones (Scarlets), Alun Wyn Jones (Ospreys), Jake Ball (Scarlets), Bradley Davies (Wasps), Luke Charteris (Racing Metro), Dan Lydiate (Racing Metro), James King (Ospreys), Sam Warburton (Cardiff Blues, CAPT), Justin Tipuric (Ospreys), Dan Baker (Ospreys), Taulupe Faletau (Dragons).

Backs: Mike Phillips (Racing Metro), Rhys Webb (Ospreys), Rhodri Williams (Scarlets), Dan Biggar (Ospreys), Rhys Priestland (Scarlets), Cory Allen (Cardiff Blues), James Roberts (Racing Metro), Jonathan Davies (ASM Clermont Auvergne), Scott Williams (Scarlets), Hallam Amos (Dragons), Alex Cuthbert (Cardiff Blues), George North (Northampton Saints), Tom Prydie (Dragons), Leigh Halfpenny (Toulon), Liam Williams (Scarlets).

A few surprises in there from my point of view...no Adam Jones or Matthew Rees! Surprising but good call I think, sadly. Wouldn't have selected Rhodri Williams, Hallam Amos or Priestland myself. Would have swapped them with Lloyd Williams, Eli Walker and Owen Williams respectively. Also a real shame not to see James Hook or Ian Evans. But other than that a pretty standard selection - glad to see Nicky Smith given his first shot!

Thoughts on starting XV against Australia?

 

[SelimNiai]

Adam Jones has hardly shone for the Blues. He was part of the pack the Ospreys shoved around. We lose that experience but I understand why they've not selected him

 

[MojoPin]

Agreed. It's a shame as he's been so good over the years, but unfortunately the derby with the Ospreys was very telling.

 

[Big Ewis]

it's truly the end of an era of scrummaging and scrummagers. The 3 best tighthead scrummagers I've seen so far watching Rugby; Nicolas Mas, Adam Jones and Carl Hayman; are nearing the end with giant steps. Another giant can be added from that exact same generation, Martin Castrogiovanni. This coincides with the new scrummaging laws of mid-2013 and the new wave of props who are expected to do more in the loose and whose scrummaging is less of an essential requirement. I'm quite positive we've never seen so many Pacific Islanders in the front row; just a quarter glance at the Top 14 testifies well enough; and France's newest pick at TH is a huge indication of that direction world Rugby is heading in: a giant prop (Uini Atonio) from Samoa/NZ with good technical skills in the loose and good activity around the park.
Would be very interested to see in 10-15 years time the sort of props who'll be playing Test Rugby.

Anyways, big loss for Wales. With healthy Adam Jones and Gethin Jenkins alone they had an advantage most of the time in any match, at very least in the scrum.

 

[psychic duck]

Adam Jones has hardly shone for the Blues. He was part of the pack the Ospreys shoved around. We lose that experience but I understand why they've not selected him

Problem is though Jarvis and Rhodri Jones are muck.

 

[Draggs]

Are we still pretending Jarvis and Jones are international tightheads?

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Priestland?
No Patchell, Williams or Walker?

 

[TRF_Cymro]

Problem is though Jarvis and Rhodri Jones are muck.

Jones always done a job for Wales. Agree with Jarvis mind.

Are we still pretending Jarvis and Jones are international tightheads?

What other options are there? Might as well chuck in Scott Andrews.

Priestland?
No Patchell, Williams or Walker?

Cannot believe Patchell missed out infront of Priestland either. Walker too. My exact reaction to be honest.

 

[Draggs]

Walker, to be fair, hasn't looked comfortable since his most recent injury.
Scratching my head over Prydie though.

Owz has been very solid for Leic out of position, really like the lad.

 

[Thingimubob]

Can almost guarantee he will start Priestland vs Australia, he will be ****e , we'll lose. Again.

I really can't see how he can justify picking him, he hasn't even been playing well for the Scarlets, and his last Wales performance was atrocious!

 

[Bluemoon]

Cannot believe Patchell missed out infront of Priestland either. Walker too. My exact reaction to be honest.

The problem is that Patchell hasn't had consistent game time at 10 and has had very patchy performances all season. He's very very green at 15 as well. He does have the ability to join the line at times but generally runs diagonally and takes away a lot of the space for other players from there.

Hook is well ahead of Patchell at international level at 10 and 15 and I'm more surprised he isn't in the squad as back up.

I really feel for Turnbull. His move to the Blues and their strange rotation system has really hurt his chances.

Some interesting choices. At the last world cup we relied on a mix of youth and experience. I think the difference is that the inexperience may come in the front row this time around. Theres a couple of props giving good performances in their respective clubs, but this November will be a big test.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

Walker, to be fair, hasn't looked comfortable since his most recent injury.
Scratching my head over Prydie though.

Owz has been very solid for Leic out of position, really like the lad.

Been very solid at 12 getting better and better.

Rumours over in Scarlets land that he might be coming back there next season.

 

[Thingimubob]

The problem is that Patchell hasn't had consistent game time at 10 and has had very patchy performances all season. He's very very green at 15 as well. He does have the ability to join the line at times but generally runs diagonally and takes away a lot of the space for other players from there.

Hook is well ahead of Patchell at international level at 10 and 15 and I'm more surprised he isn't in the squad as back up.

I really feel for Turnbull. His move to the Blues and their strange rotation system has really hurt his chances.

Some interesting choices. At the last world cup we relied on a mix of youth and experience. I think the difference is that the inexperience may come in the front row this time around. Theres a couple of props giving good performances in their respective clubs, but this November will be a big test.

Really? Patchell has been one of the standout players in Wales for me! Plus he's been the only Blues player to really create anything in the majority of the games so far, even if he has been stuck at 15 far too often.
Agree that Turnbull can feel a bit hard done by, especially since Lydiate has hardly played this season!
Same can be said of a lot of players in the squad, fair few have clearly been picked on reputation rather than anything theyve done this year.

 

[j'nuh]

The problem is that Patchell hasn't had consistent game time at 10 and has had very patchy performances all season. He's very very green at 15 as well. He does have the ability to join the line at times but generally runs diagonally and takes away a lot of the space for other players from there.

Hook is well ahead of Patchell at international level at 10 and 15 and I'm more surprised he isn't in the squad as back up.

I really feel for Turnbull. His move to the Blues and their strange rotation system has really hurt his chances.

Some interesting choices. At the last world cup we relied on a mix of youth and experience. I think the difference is that the inexperience may come in the front row this time around. Theres a couple of props giving good performances in their respective clubs, but this November will be a big test.

Since 2008, Gatland has wanted to give preference to players playing in Wales. The financial picture amongst the Welsh clubs meant that he couldn't enforce anything closely resembling "Gatland's law", since too many players opted for the money overseas, and it would harm Wales too much to enact the law. I think that now the dual contracts are coming in, the backdrop has been completely changed. Gatland has played an absolutely fantastic move by leaving out Hook. What it says is that if you are playing outside of Wales, you have to be clearly better than the alternatives in order to be selected. It puts pressure on guys like Hook to come back to take up central contracts (or fight for one). Whereas this wasn't likely in the past, the money behind the central contracts make the move back to Wales a lot more tempting for those who originally opted to move away for the money. I suspect players will start moving back to Wales to secure the central contracts due to the fear of missing out on international selection, and every player that moves back will increase the pressure on others, giving Gatland the power to further enact his law.

 

[j'nuh]

The interview with Gatland is very revealing:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/29712758

Adam Jones not picked because the new scrummaging laws have "dropped the value of a tighthead by half" and that "what's become paramount in the game is the ability of front rows to be more mobile and get around the park".

Hook not picked because "the goal is for the future is to have as few players as possible playing outside of Wales".

I always thought that whilst Adam Jones is not mobile by any stretch, he still gets through a lot of work outside of the scrum (especially in the contact zone), and so is worth having in the team. But is what Gatland's saying true? That getting through a lot of work is no longer good enough, as you need to be mobile around the field too? Very interesting if so.

 

[TRF_Cymro]

The interview with Gatland is very revealing:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/29712758

Adam Jones not picked because the new scrummaging laws have "dropped the value of a tighthead by half" and that "what's become paramount in the game is the ability of front rows to be more mobile and get around the park".

Hook not picked because "the goal is for the future is to have as few players as possible playing outside of Wales".

I always thought that whilst Adam Jones is not mobile by any stretch, he still gets through a lot of work outside of the scrum (especially in the contact zone), and so is worth having in the team. But is what Gatland's saying true? That getting through a lot of work is no longer good enough, as you need to be mobile around the field too? Very interesting if so.

Adam has good tackling stats, seen from Opta but obviously he needs to carry more than what he does. I presume thats what he is saying.

 

[Draggs]

So who would be worth dual contracting? Of the foreign players, I'd say Williams, Davies, Charteris, Halfpenny, Lydiate at this moment. Roberts I think will call it a day sooner rather than later, with his medical career in mind. Phillips is past it.
Owen goes back to Turks, same with Davies. Halfpenny is tough, depends on what the Blues do with Anscombe/Patchell. Charteris to Dragons, possibly Lydiate as well.

 

[psychic duck]

Adam has good tackling stats, seen from Opta but obviously he needs to carry more than what he does. I presume thats what he is saying.

By all accounts he let his fitness go badly over last season, whilst leaving the Ospreys so messily and not having a proper pre season, and is still only recovering with the Blues.

So who would be worth dual contracting? Of the foreign players, I'd say Williams, Davies, Charteris, Halfpenny, Lydiate at this moment. Roberts I think will call it a day sooner rather than later, with his medical career in mind. Phillips is past it.
Owen goes back to Turks, same with Davies. Halfpenny is tough, depends on what the Blues do with Anscombe/Patchell. Charteris to Dragons, possibly Lydiate as well.

Would rather Lydiate went to the Dragons than the Ospreys.

 

[j'nuh]

So who would be worth dual contracting? Of the foreign players, I'd say Williams, Davies, Charteris, Halfpenny, Lydiate at this moment. Roberts I think will call it a day sooner rather than later, with his medical career in mind. Phillips is past it.
Owen goes back to Turks, same with Davies. Halfpenny is tough, depends on what the Blues do with Anscombe/Patchell. Charteris to Dragons, possibly Lydiate as well.

I'd add North to your list and whichever of Jonathan Davies/Bradley Davies that you missed, and take away Charteris and Owen Williams

Charteris is 31, won't be out of contract for a while, isn't a star and probably won't make 2019. Owen Williams is still only potential. I'd wait for him to prove himself a bit more before getting a dual.

As an outside bet, given that Wales are going to have to replace Jenkins and James after the WC, could Gill come back on a dual contract?