[2014 ITM Cup] Round 3

[TRF Mr Fish]

Not as well as Taranaki though huh!! In pretty much all facets which has suprised me a touch. Their scrum has been dominant as expected, but their D has been up to task and their attack as been way superior - too much for Waikato to handle!

Did you throw $100 on Taranaki? I might need some comission

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Well TKB is redeeming himself now obscene pass.

Waikato trying to pull a Chiefs and recover from a huge margin... What's the bet we see a draw?

Edit: and I've jinxed it. Where are the hard-working forwards like Retallick? These guys look lazy on defence, if the attacker doesn't run straight into them then no tackle is made...

 

[ABs2011]

Did you throw $100 on Taranaki? I might need some comission

No unfortunately not. On this forum for the sake of simplicity, all my picks are for $100 H2H on every game, but in reality I dont bet on all games, and also change my bests depending on the game.

That being said, for tonights game, my actual bets are
$200 on Taranaki +10.5 @ $1.6
$50 +6.5 @ $1.87
$25 H2H @ $3
and also had a sly $10 er on Naholo @ $12 for first try scorer (as well as ten on Thompson and Marshall).

All in all it looks like (hopefully) a good start to week 3! Got a bit of a shock though when I came back after half time with my hotdog to see Waikato had scored twice... order restored now though

 

[Regan]

No unfortunately not. On this forum for the sake of simplicity, all my picks are for $100 H2H on every game, but in reality I dont bet on all games, and also change my bests depending on the game.

That being said, for tonights game, my actual bets are
$200 on Taranaki +10.5 @ $1.6
$50 +6.5 @ $1.87
$25 H2H @ $3
and also had a sly $10 er on Naholo @ $12 for first try scorer (as well as ten on Thompson and Marshall).

All in all it looks like (hopefully) a good start to week 3! Got a bit of a shock though when I came back after half time with my hotdog to see Waikato had scored twice... order restored now though

Nice bets. Regretting not putting money on the Naki now. I redeemed myself though and made a few Naki bets when things went spiralling down for Waikato.....(Naki first to 40 and Naki -19.5) Both looking likely atm.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Nice bets. Regretting not putting money on the Naki now. I redeemed myself though and made a few Naki bets when things went spiralling down for Waikato.....(Naki first to 40 and Naki -19.5) Both looking likely atm.

What were they paying?

The Waikato forwards are all running too upright. The only guy making any headway is Tameifuna, and that's because he's fundamentally incapable of running upright.

 

[Regan]

What were they paying?

The Waikato forwards are all running too upright. The only guy making any headway is Tameifuna, and that's because he's fundamentally incapable of running upright.

$2.60 each. Hopefully Naki can score....not liking this 39 haha.

 

[ABs2011]

Nice bets. Regretting not putting money on the Naki now. I redeemed myself though and made a few Naki bets when things went spiralling down for Waikato.....(Naki first to 40 and Naki -19.5) Both looking likely atm.

Good luck! last chance for Naki to score!!

 

[ABs2011]

Good luck! last chance for Naki to score!!

Haha!! Yes, and they score on the last play of the game!!

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

$2.60 each. Hopefully Naki can score....not liking this 39 haha.

How many dollars did that last try net you?

 

[Regan]

Good luck! last chance for Naki to score!!

Ahhh there we go. Left it right until the end, just to keep me waiting. Cheers Naki.

Good performance from the Naki. Broadhurst was superb as was Marty. Much needed for the blokes.

 

[ABs2011]

Nice bets. Regretting not putting money on the Naki now. I redeemed myself though and made a few Naki bets when things went spiralling down for Waikato.....(Naki first to 40 and Naki -19.5) Both looking likely atm.

By the way, Naki first to 40 doesnt sound like u are betting on the NZ TAB, u using 365?

 

[Regan]

How many dollars did that last try net you?

I slapped $20 on it so $52 ($32 profit).

 

[Regan]

By the way, Naki first to 40 doesnt sound like u are betting on the NZ TAB, u using 365?

Yep 365. I find they have slightly better odds, especially for the "under dog". Which is good when they overestimate the favourites. For example the Naki were paying $3.20 from memory.

 

[ABs2011]

Yep 365. I find they have slightly better odds, especially for the "under dog". Which is good when they overestimate the favourites. For example the Naki were paying $3.20 from memory.

Thought so. Yup, in general better odds than the TAB. I used to use them, although online betting was my downfall at times so I closed it Well done, good bit of $ to kick this weekend off.

Im certainly keen to look at putting more on Taranaki against BOP on SUnday after that performance today. Thought Taranaki looked really sharp. Broadhurst, Thompson, Hall, Ta'avo (and the Taranaki scrum in general), Gibson Park, McKenzie, and pretty much the whole Taranaki backline. They looked really good tonight, top four team IMO.

 

[Regan]

Thought so. Yup, in general better odds than the TAB. I used to use them, although online betting was my downfall at times so I closed it Well done, good bit of $ to kick this weekend off.

Im certainly keen to look at putting more on Taranaki against BOP on SUnday after that performance today. Thought Taranaki looked really sharp. Broadhurst, Thompson, Hall, Ta'avo (and the Taranaki scrum in general), Gibson Park, McKenzie, and pretty much the whole Taranaki backline. They looked really good tonight, top four team IMO.

Unfortunately Canterbury tomorrow (betting wise) is a bit of a dead rubber. Might look for some in play bets for that one.

I thought another key performer was Seta Tamanivalu, honestly broke Waikato's defence apart, offloaded and set up some nice trys and breaks. Him and Ngatai are going to be exciting to watch this season. Actually Taranaki got all that more exciting after this game. Tasman and Taranaki playing well (I won't mention Canterbury - a given really).

 

[Regan]

Canterbury have made 12 changes for tonight's game. Whilst it's a strong squad on paper, you'd have to think things may not click early on. I can't see Canterbury beating Northland by 30+ tbh, especially if Northland play like they did last week.

 

[ABs2011]

Hey Regan,

Yup, I agree with what you've been saying. I think that there are many possible ways tonight's game could go, depending on how well this new Cantab line up clicks. Betting in game might be the way to go, as I think it will become quite apparent within the first 15 minutes how the game will play out.

I've watched most of both these teams first two games. Canterbury has been dominant, a little surprising even how seamlessly they have all clicked from the opening whistle of game one. From memory in each of their games they have had about 20 points on the board by about the 20 min mark! I guess they will click again, but there are a lot of changes in key positions, ie the 8, 9, 10 combination is completely new, the centre combination is new as well, and arguably their best player, Todd is not there at all.... I personally think on paper this team is not as good, and when you take into account all the combination changes then presumably these guys wont be as good as the first couple weeks.

I was really impressed with Northland against Wellington. Their first few tries were all pretty opportunistic, but they were actually quite dominant both in D and attack in the second half v Wellington. I was a little surprised how impressive they were to be honest, but maybe it needs to be put in context, i.e. how bad Wellington were - reinforced now by the trouncings Waikato have received since beating Wellington in week 1.... That being said, there were some real stand outs for Northland in that game, Dan Pryor looked awesoe, and for me looked like the type of guy one of the more proactive Super Rugby franchises might look to as a backup loosie for the upcoming season if he can push on (I could see the Chiefs taking a good look at him for example). Macilai has been in hot form as well, Stanley has been a good pick up, and listening to one of the Northland players talk on the radio the other night, they seem to have a real belief in their squad this year. In week one Northland and Manawatu from memory had a bit of a struggle of a game. Pretty average rugby, lots of errors in a bit of a stop starty affair.

So, while I think Canterbury should win, I've got a tendancy to think they wont cover the point start which is on offer, which is 26.5 points. I might back Northland on the alternate point start at one or all of +19.5 ($2.80) +29.5 ($1.62) and/or +34.5 ($1.33).

Anyway for now Ill just add Canterbury to my H2Hs for the week:

Taranaki @ $3
Canterbury @$1.02
and my preliminary selections for the rest of the round are:
Manawatu @ $4.2
Counties @ $1.40
Southland @ $1.87
Harbour @$2.7
Taranaki @$1.25
Auckland @ $1.47

 

[Regan]

Hey Regan,

Yup, I agree with what you've been saying. I think that there are many possible ways tonight's game could go, depending on how well this new Cantab line up clicks. Betting in game might be the way to go, as I think it will become quite apparent within the first 15 minutes how the game will play out.

I've watched most of both these teams first two games. Canterbury has been dominant, a little surprising even how seamlessly they have all clicked from the opening whistle of game one. From memory in each of their games they have had about 20 points on the board by about the 20 min mark! I guess they will click again, but there are a lot of changes in key positions, ie the 8, 9, 10 combination is completely new, the centre combination is new as well, and arguably their best player, Todd is not there at all.... I personally think on paper this team is not as good, and when you take into account all the combination changes then presumably these guys wont be as good as the first couple weeks.

I was really impressed with Northland against Wellington. Their first few tries were all pretty opportunistic, but they were actually quite dominant both in D and attack in the second half v Wellington. I was a little surprised how impressive they were to be honest, but maybe it needs to be put in context, i.e. how bad Wellington were - reinforced now by the trouncings Waikato have received since beating Wellington in week 1.... That being said, there were some real stand outs for Northland in that game, Dan Pryor looked awesoe, and for me looked like the type of guy one of the more proactive Super Rugby franchises might look to as a backup loosie for the upcoming season if he can push on (I could see the Chiefs taking a good look at him for example). Macilai has been in hot form as well, Stanley has been a good pick up, and listening to one of the Northland players talk on the radio the other night, they seem to have a real belief in their squad this year. In week one Northland and Manawatu from memory had a bit of a struggle of a game. Pretty average rugby, lots of errors in a bit of a stop starty affair.

So, while I think Canterbury should win, I've got a tendancy to think they wont cover the point start which is on offer, which is 26.5 points. I might back Northland on the alternate point start at one or all of +19.5 ($2.80) +29.5 ($1.62) and/or +34.5 ($1.33).

Anyway for now Ill just add Canterbury to my H2Hs for the week:

Taranaki @ $3
Canterbury @$1.02
and my preliminary selections for the rest of the round are:
Manawatu @ $4.2
Counties @ $1.40
Southland @ $1.87
Harbour @$2.7
Taranaki @$1.25
Auckland @ $1.47

Agree completely with you. I won some tennis bets over the night so put some $$$ on Northland, +30 ($1.55) + 26 ($1.90) +21.5 ($2.40) and a sneaky $1 bet on Northland to win @ $20 :lol2: ----> you can always dream.

I honestly don't think Northland will get trounced by as much as the bookies think but as you say the first 20 minutes or so will tell all.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Agree completely with you. I won some tennis bets over the night so put some $$$ on Northland, +30 ($1.55) + 26 ($1.90) +21.5 ($2.40) and a sneaky $1 bet on Northland to win @ $20 :lol2: ----> you can always dream.

I honestly don't think Northland will get trounced by as much as the bookies think but as you say the first 20 minutes or so will tell all.

Forgive me if I'm wrong, but the odds are based primarily on team form as well as history between the two teams? Odds are then adjusted based on betting?

If the above is correct then the ITM Cup is the ideal competition to be betting on as there will be fewer betters in total, meaning odds change little from when they are first released. This ensures that things like team selection is not taken into consideration, which is particularly important in this competition as midweek games enforce significant changes to teams.

I've signed up to the TAB now, placed $25 on each of Northland +34.5 ($1.33), +29.5 ($1.62), +19.5 ($2.80), +14.5 ($4).

So if Northland get within 19.5 points I'll make almost a 50% profit. If they get within 14.5 I'll make almost 150% profit.

Come on Northland!

 

[Regan]

Forgive me if I'm wrong, but the odds are based primarily on team form as well as history between the two teams? Odds are then adjusted based on betting?

If the above is correct then the ITM Cup is the ideal competition to be betting on as there will be fewer betters in total, meaning odds change little from when they are first released. This ensures that things like team selection is not taken into consideration, which is particularly important in this competition as midweek games enforce significant changes to teams.

I believe so.

Tbh, the ITM Cup has always been my favourite to bet on. It's predictably unpredictable (if that makes sense) so it's a field day for us betters with good odds (look at the Naki last night for example). Bookies had them paying $3/ $3.20 (big under dogs) when in reality they were a pretty good bet.....and rightly so.