[2014 ITM Cup] Round 3

[TRF Mr Fish]

Just got back from work... Bugger! Great first up experience with betting I finally put my money where my mouth is and everything turns to custard!

I've placed three $5 bets on other games now...

Manawatu +5.5 @ $2.50
Hawke's Bay H2H @ $2.80
Tasman H2H @ $2.55

 

[ABs2011]

Just got back from work... Bugger! Great first up experience with betting I finally put my money where my mouth is and everything turns to custard!

I've placed three $5 bets on other games now...

Manawatu +5.5 @ $2.50
Hawke's Bay H2H @ $2.80
Tasman H2H @ $2.55

Could be a blessing in disguise... Sorry u lost mate. At least we were all there with you

I'm starting to re-think a touch the Wellington game. I think it's actually a game to stay away from. Wellington have been absolutely woeful, but with some ABs coming back, the young fullahs in that team might come to life a bit. Manawatu is a grafty team at best. If they can muscle up in the forwards they might compete, but to be honest, this game should be Welligntons..... I hope Im wrong though!

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Could be a blessing in disguise... Sorry u lost mate. At least we were all there with you

I'm starting to re-think a touch the Wellington game. I think it's actually a game to stay away from. Wellington have been absolutely woeful, but with some ABs coming back, the young fullahs in that team might come to life a bit. Manawatu is a grafty team at best. If they can muscle up in the forwards they might compete, but to be honest, this game should be Welligntons..... I hope Im wrong though!

Haha yeah it's certainly made me re-think gambling ever again! $100 certainly isn't the end of the world, did make for a lackluster night of work though, knowing that every hour I worked I was losing a few dollars

 

[donmcdazzle]

Could be a blessing in disguise... Sorry u lost mate. At least we were all there with you

I'm starting to re-think a touch the Wellington game. I think it's actually a game to stay away from. Wellington have been absolutely woeful, but with some ABs coming back, the young fullahs in that team might come to life a bit. Manawatu is a grafty team at best. If they can muscle up in the forwards they might compete, but to be honest, this game should be Welligntons..... I hope Im wrong though!

Yeah this is a classic trap game. Wellington has been awful and the odds on the turbos are there to tempt you. I think you're right, the returning AB's will have changed the attitude a bit. As much as I want Manawatu to win, I see Wellington coming good tonight and getting up for a 15 point win.

 

[Regan]

Haha yeah it's certainly made me re-think gambling ever again! $100 certainly isn't the end of the world, did make for a lackluster night of work though, knowing that every hour I worked I was losing a few dollars

When you bet on every game in the round, losing one generally isn't an issue (since you'll still come out on top - if you've picked right). For example If you took all odds at $1.50, you'd only need to win about 65% of those bets to break even (assuming you're betting the same amount) and of course you bet on odds over that, so it drops to about 55%.

I generally try and stay away from betting on Wellington (home team bias) but have put a bet on them -4.5 @$1.80 (1st half). Hoping they really get up with the likes of Thrush and Perenara back.

Wow just looked. Manawatu are now paying $6.50......so tempting. Might just slap a fiver on that too.

 

[ABs2011]

Yeah this is a classic trap game. Wellington has been awful and the odds on the turbos are there to tempt you. I think you're right, the returning AB's will have changed the attitude a bit. As much as I want Manawatu to win, I see Wellington coming good tonight and getting up for a 15 point win.

Yup I agree (now the odds have drifted quite a bit on the Turbos as well). They are my home team, and I think they often punch above their weight (a few good grafty forwards in there). But I think the game last week will be pretty indicative of how their season will go, I.e. they are simply not good enough to compete with the top unions. Good enough to spoil a bit of ball, to score the odd try, but probably not good enough to get within 15, let alone win. To be fair, Auckland were still pretty average last weekend, but still managed to win by 30+ (from memory).

My initial thought we to go with Manawatu , but I have changed my mind and am going to back Wellington.

Oh, and the weather is very nice down here in Welly. Presuming it stays like this through to game time, one would expect a pretty decent and high scoring game. (remember the TAB have the money back special on Fri games if ur team scores 20+ but loses).

 

[canadafan]

Have to ask, how have Jason Marshall (Hawkes Bay) and Hubert Buydens (Manawatu) gone so far?

 

[donmcdazzle]

Have to ask, how have Jason Marshall (Hawkes Bay) and Hubert Buydens (Manawatu) gone so far?

'moose' has gone alright. Was good in the scrums in the first round game against Northland and seems to be getting around the park better than last year. He will be on the bench from now on though given Chris Eves and Ma'afu Fia (both Super 15 players) are back to being fit.

 

[ABs2011]

'moose' has gone alright. Was good in the scrums in the first round game against Northland and seems to be getting around the park better than last year. He will be on the bench from now on though given Chris Eves and Ma'afu Fia (both Super 15 players) are back to being fit.

Are you involved in Rugby in the Manawatu mate? I think I've rad a few of ur posts that suggests you are more than just a casual observer.

 

[ABs2011]

Adjusted Picks for this round:
Taranaki @ $3
Canterbury @$1.02
Wellington @ $1.12
Counties @ $1.40
Southland @ $1.87
Harbour @$2.7
Taranaki @$1.25
Auckland @ $1.47

 

[ABs2011]

Wellington are just clumsy!

Appart from the fact they have completely bombed 3 tries already, I just don't get the way their backline lines up! Several occasions they have had lots of numbers, but because their first receiver is playing so deep, quite often when he receives the ball the rest of the backline is in front of him. As a result he is forced to cart it up, instead of shifting it out wide and using the space and numbers. Quite frankly it is ridiculous that a professional team can be so hopeless. And I haven't mentioned their passing....Ahhh....smart money was definitely on the Turbos given the odds of 5 : 1!!

 

[nickdnz]

Wellington are just clumsy!

Appart from the fact they have completely bombed 3 tries already, I just don't get the way their backline lines up! Several occasions they have had lots of numbers, but because their first receiver is playing so deep, quite often when he receives the ball the rest of the backline is in front of him. As a result he is forced to cart it up, instead of shifting it out wide and using the space and numbers. Quite frankly it is ridiculous that a professional team can be so hopeless. And I haven't mentioned their passing....Ahhh....smart money was definitely on the Turbos given the odds of 5 : 1!!

Every week I'm going to say Chris Boyd is the new Hurricanes coach...seems I'm the only one who truly appreciates how f**ked we really are.

 

[smartcooky]

Adjusted Picks for this round:
Taranaki @ $3
Canterbury @$1.02
Wellington @ $1.12
Counties @ $1.40
Southland @ $1.87
Harbour @$2.7
Taranaki @$1.25
Auckland @ $1.47

Ooops!

 

[ABs2011]

Every week I'm going to say Chris Boyd is the new Hurricanes coach...seems I'm the only one who truly appreciates how f**ked we really are.

Yup, it's a massive issue, I agree. The structures Wellington are playing with are woeful and the coach needs to be held solely responsible for that! It is a massive concern how this will translate to Super Rugby!!

 

[ABs2011]

Ooops!

Ridiculous aye! Made even worse given I originally picked the Turbos.... Ahh. Just lucky I didn't actually have any real $ on that game.

That being said, on the money back special that I've mentioned in a couple threads (Fri: score 20+ points = refund) I would have gotten a refund.

 

[Regan]

As a Wellington supporter, all I can do now is laugh. Woeful. On the plus side, Manawatu winning won me $$$. Glad that bet enticed me now.

 

[ABs2011]

As a Wellington supporter, all I can do now is laugh. Woeful. On the plus side, Manawatu winning won me $$$. Glad that bet enticed me now.

Well done bro - I wish I'd stuck with my original anlaysis as well..... I think there are three things that need to be avoided at all costs when betting until current form changes - Betting on Wellington and N Harbour and betting against Canterbury

 

[donmcdazzle]

Are you involved in Rugby in the Manawatu mate? I think I've rad a few of ur posts that suggests you are more than just a casual observer.

I was born and raised there, wore the green and white through the age grades and am good mates with a few of the players in the side so get a bit of insight into the squad and that. I watch every game and attend as many as possible. My grandad, dad, two uncles and two of my brothers have played for them so yip I'm a pretty staunch supporter! Which can be testing at times let me tell you.

On tonight's game - wellington bombed 3 pretty easy chances in the 1st 20 mins. Curtis' finishing attempt was pathetic really he just had to flop over and tried to cut inside for whatever reason. Shields didn't draw the last defender in, and Matu'u dropped it cold with a huge overlap outside him. In saying that the turbos managed to stay in it and played smarter towards the end of the 1st half. Our 10 on debut was class I thought. Since Cruden made the ABs we've lacked direction a bit from 10, and Otere Black looked the part tonight. Made good decisions, got us in good areas and made those two telling breaks for the tries. Kicked his goals too. Hopefully he can maintain something like that sort of form for the remainder of the season.

Gibbins was pretty outstanding yet again. He had better make the full canes squad next year.

Wellington must have been disappointed in Thrush, he was at fault for both turbos tries.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Haha I had a dream last night that a mod changed the ***le of this thread to ITM Betting and Odds...

Shield challenge today, should be a very good match. A bit overcast up this way but hopefully the rain stays away!

Elsewhere it looks like Tony Ensor will finally see some game time for Otago this week and Waikato have made nine changes which means their team has basically reverted back to the team that started the season off.

 

[ABs2011]

Haha I had a dream last night that a mod changed the ***le of this thread to ITM Betting and Odds...

Shield challenge today, should be a very good match. A bit overcast up this way but hopefully the rain stays away!

Elsewhere it looks like Tony Ensor will finally see some game time for Otago this week and Waikato have made nine changes which means their team has basically reverted back to the team that started the season off.

Haha, yeah sorry bro - I got a bit carried away. I gotta bail on this thread for a while anyway. - too much other stuff to do.
Good luck with your betting career
Looking forward to today though. I love watching Counties so here's hoping the weather is good up there and they play an expansive game!