A Political Thread

[die_mole]

In my firm they have told us to work from home until further notice. Anyone else?

All classes are going to be web based with video calls. I'm supposed to meet with clinics by telephone.

 

[ncurd]

For some mad reason they seamed determined to get through this weekend. Sturgeon walked out the meeting saying mass events will be cancelled from Monday.....I mean why not announce that?

I do think the government have moved on from listening to not panicing to listening to what they want to hear.

 

[ncurd]

In my firm they have told us to work from home until further notice. Anyone else?

Only if we show any symptoms but we need access to equipment and we've tested what we can.

However there are only 30 of us on site maximum so risk is relatively low until one of us gets it.

 

[Amiga500]

I do think the government have moved on from listening to not panicing to listening to what they want to hear.

Regardless of our disagreements on what they are doing - I think we'd both be in agreement that they should be publicising what they intend to do so folks/businesses have time to get prepared.

If they know fine well they are currently looking at shutting schools on say, 27th April - why do they not come out and say thats whats the current envisaged time table.

Parents know what to expect, the workplaces of those parents know what to expect. The EA and teachers know what to expect and resource availability can be planned and implemented as best as possible.


Right now it all smacks of dithering around then rushing to implement a last minute decision.





What are the current action plans?
What is the envisaged timetable for those action plans?
What can everyone do to prepare for implementation of those plans?

Useful information. If they are withholding it out of fear of panic, then what will the panic be like when no one has time to wrap their heads around it?

 

[Which Tyler]

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

 

[Amiga500]

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

Ah but Boris' pack of experts nodding heads say we don't need to do any closing of schools, stopping of mass gatherings or social distancing.

Lessons from 1918
https://miro.medium.com/max/3486/1*16H3bmMfu149AdgU27mI-w.png
https://miro.medium.com/max/2778/1*EvJT_ZuzqqyESHgkcVfmUQ.png


Current projections:
https://miro.medium.com/max/2946/1*XcXT9eNuHRQMOUEf_gAB9A.png


Although I'd like to know how or where his own calculations came from.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

The Canadian PM has has to self isolate after his wife tested positive for Convid 19. Justin could be The first world leader to get the Corona virus. It's True though.

I'll get my coat.

 

[Which Tyler]

Ah but Boris' pack of experts nodding heads say we don't need to do any closing of schools, stopping of mass gatherings or social distancing.

Have to say, this week, I'm right with you in that we need extreme action - Last week I think it would still have been too early (we were low enough on the curve that panic was more dangerous; added to which, we'd have been all alone locally in taking extreme actions, so we'd have had to close all the ports and airports as well).
The announcement that was supposed to be made on Wednesday would have been about the right time; or 1-2 days later than ideal to go extreme.
But the build up, followed by the delay by 24 hours to consequently make essentially no announcment (yesterday's official advice is short of Monday's NHS & PHE advice on who should self-isolate) makes it seems like he was going to take drastic measures; but chickened out at the last minute; took some extra time, and still chickened out, even though our neighbours were in the process of triggering extreme measures themselves.

A good place to see where we are on the curve would be https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb1

IMO, had he listened to the experts, we'd have led the world (by 24 hours) in taking serious steps. As it is, we've volunteered to be the control group for future epidemiologists!

 

[Which Tyler]

On "Self Isolation" - when the inevitable happens, I'm going to refuse the term. It's boring, bowing down to government authority.

I'm not sure yet if I'll be going for "Exiled for the good of the realm" - sexy, exciting, mysterious.
Or "Going to the Winchester, have a nice cold pint, and wait for this all to blow over"

 

[ncurd]

The only thing I can say is the Chief Scientific Advisor and Chief Medical Officer are talking a very good game. It very much seams like they feel they are playing the long game as opposed to short term. ie you can't stop this in its tracks, we'd like crisis to more less be over in UK by next winter and shutting people up (now) prolongs that, people won't abide by those rules for long and won't accept it multiple waves which is what you'll get is you do close it all down, open it up and close it again.

Now of course there buts, 5 out of the 7 G7 country's have some kind restriction in place (although the USA appears to be guided by nothing other than reactionary nonsence). Germany (which nobody is talking about) however are taking exactly the same approach as us. They are about a week ahead of us so I guess in some regards they are the canary not us.


I'm dubious we are getting this right, I'm pretty much on the same page as Which Tyler, early this week/last weekend there was clear no point in starting now it feel like we should be doing small restrictions.


As Amiga500 I think we'd all feel a lot better if the government announced what numbers and when they planned to do certain thing we'd all be a lot more reassured.

 

[Which Tyler]

The only thing I can say is the Chief Scientific Advisor and Chief Medical Officer are talking a very good game. It very much seams like they feel they are playing the long game as opposed to short term. ie you can't stop this in its tracks, we'd like crisis to more less be over in UK by next winter and shutting people up (now) prolongs that, people won't abide by those rules for long and won't accept it multiple waves which is what you'll get is you do close it all down, open it up and close it again.

Oh, there's no "stopping this in its tracks"; the point of restrictions is to flatten that exponential curve.
Not doing so means that yes, we get the spike over and done with earlier - but it's so much higher when it comes and will swamp the healthcare system - leading to many, many deaths. Taking action and flattening the curve means that it's (more or less) possible to keep levels that can be coped with. If you can keep the number of people needing hospital admission lower than the number of available place in hospitals - you can do a much better job of caring for them than if if you have 10 times as many needing as there are places. That's the difference between a mortality rate of 0.5% versus closer to 10%.

We seem to be banking on acquiring herd immunity (typically requiring 85% of the population to have immunity - though we seem to think closer to 60% in this instance) - even though we don't know if that's possible with this virus (well, we know that it is guaranteed, because people have had it, recovered, and contracted it again - though we don't know if that's a matter of different strains). We also don't know if the weather will affect it's progress - apart from the fact that hitting Australia in their summer doesn't seem to be stopping it at all - so there's nothing to make us think that it will die off in the summer, and give a second spike in late Autumn.

If we leave our official responce where it currently is (I really hope we don't) then it's predicted to be 70-80% of us will be infected; from a population of 67M - let's be optimistic, and go with 70% - that's 47 million cases. Of whom 80% are "mild" - which means they can stay at home and not actually die.
This leaves 9,000,000 million people fighting for 167,000 hospital beds - and that's assuming that every hospital bed in the UK is emptied of it's current occupant, and that there's enough equipment to go with each bed. Now, those numbers won't all happen at once - it'll happen over a month or so's time if we're leaving it unchecked - but then, those beds aren't needed for just a day or so per person.



For me, the most damning thing about yesterday's announcement, is that we had a couple of days build up to it - implying that something BIG was going to be announced. Then it was delayed by 24 hours for no apparent reason; and then there was nothing new in it.
Yes, officially " persistent cough" has been added to "fever" on the list for self-isolation, and schools have been advised to think about whether they really want to go on that overseas trip. On Saturday, the NHS / PHE list for self-isolation was "fever, cough or shortness of breath" - so the new announcement is 1 symptom behind the NHS / PHE advice of 5 days previously - whilst "think about it" - come on. Really?
Sunday - We've got a big announcement coming on Wednesday
Monday - It's going to be huge
Tuesday - We're really going to escalate our handling of this
Wednesday - This is so big, we need to take another day to make sure we get it right
Thursday - Erm... yeah, just keep doing what you're doing; many of you will die; but... never mind heh?

My reading is that he been listening to the advice - but when that advice turned scary, he intended to follow, but ultimately bottled it; the 24 hours was probably to get the new announcement written; and for the CMO and CSA to put their diplomatic faces on.

 

[ncurd]

snip

Should note the governments policy is not that they won't be flattening the curve and putting restrictions in place, its just that they won't be doing it yet. They are trying to avoid the scenario you are talking about they just feel getting a slightly steeper curve over a shorter amount of time is better than a flatter one over a longer period.

On re-contraction I don't think I've seen anything that supports or denies it enough.

The summer thing I don't think is about spread but to do with capacity when the NHS is not combating things that are seasonal whilst also managing this which are seasonal.

IF they get their judgement it will be better but they are certainly taking a far more riskier approach.

Like I said I'm dubious (very much so) they are getting this right but I also think its important to properly explain what their plan is.




I agree I think they were planning a much bigger announcement as noted it was leaking nearly 48 hours in advance (and was supposed 24 hours before the actual announcement). And this where my real worry is they are not explaining why the change in tact and giving us further detail on the plan suggesting they are doing it by the seat of their plants, which they may not be doing.....still its very hard to trust this specific government.

 

[ncurd]

I am still very much of the opinion thank **** I'm not in the USA

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world...6b6cd58d956f0669ae45f1&pinned_post_type=share

 

[Which Tyler]

Should note the governments policy is not that they won't be flattening the curve and putting restrictions in place, its just that they won't be doing it yet. They are trying to avoid the scenario you are talking about they just feel getting a slightly steeper curve over a shorter amount of time is better than a flatter one over a longer period.

On re-contraction I don't think I've seen anything that supports or denies it enough.

.

Oh, absolutely, and I don't mean to imply otherwise. We just think that everyone else in the world (apart from Germany and USA - which have their own problems) is getting it wrong.

There is a lot about it which is unknown, the government is banking on their guesses being the right ones

 

[Which Tyler]

I am still very much of the opinion thank **** I'm not in the USA

The US approach, summarised:

 

[FLOBALOB]

Oh, absolutely, and I don't mean to imply otherwise. We just think that everyone else in the world (apart from Germany and USA - which have their own problems) is getting it wrong.

There is a lot about it which is unknown, the government is banking on their guesses being the right ones

You could tell by their countenance and general demeanour (all 3 of them) at the announcement yesterday that they know how big a gamble they are taking. Tbh ,they don't fill me with much confidence. My gut tells me they are leaving it too long and in a weeks time things could be horrific for the NHS.
i just hope they're doing the right thing.

 

[Which Tyler]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...lth-authorities-latest-covid-19-a9398051.html

 

[FLOBALOB]

The wife and I have a sweet/convenience shop with several schools and a large college very close by and see lots of kids,from 0-20 years old every day. Very few of them could care less about washing hands/social distancing or anything Coronavirus related. We have a section of pick n mix, and I've been gob-smacked at the number of people , including dozens of parents, who continue to fill their bags with penny sweets without any thought of hygiene. The thought that the same thing is happening all over the country is frightening.
I just hope the kids (and parents) wash their hands before they go to visit granny and grandad over the weekend.

 

[Reiser99]

My problem is when they say, "it's a new virus so the data isn't there." It may be new, but you can use similar data from similar viruses to at least help.

"We aren't closing schools because children don't appear to get the virus or only suffer mild symptoms." Or "there is no evidence to show that closing schools help." I find those kind of arguments ridiculous as children are the group most likely to spread the virus and the logic is based on an absence of data, not actual data.

As people have said above they are gambling that their guesses are right. For schools I honestly think they are trying to get as close to the holidays as possible and say that's the 2 weeks closure, so they avoid parents having to take extra time off. It's all about keeping the economy going as long as possible. The problem is that will be too late.

 

[McTallshort]

My problem is when they say, "it's a new virus so the data isn't there." It may be new, but you can use similar data from similar viruses to at least help.

"We aren't closing schools because children don't appear to get the virus or only suffer mild symptoms." I find those kind of arguments ridiculous as children are the group most likely to spread the virus.

As people have said above they are gambling that their guesses are right. For schools I honestly think they are trying to get as close to the holidays as possible and say that's the 2 weeks closure. The problem is that will be too late.

That's wrong. In the case of flu yes kids would spread it but the evidence so far suggests that isn't the case with this. Also for it to have any effect the schools would need shutting for months not weeks. If you have healthcare workers with kids how are they supposed to get into work? Let the kids grandparents look after them?