Argentinian Rugby

Cruz_del_Sur

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In non world cup years players go from SR, to TRC to Mid-year internationals almost without a break. That is a very demanding schedule.
But in world cup years we have a 1 and a half month window between the last game (i'm not counting Randwick as i consider a 74-0 win more along the lines of a training).

Ask any sports physician and they will all, invariably, assure you that a month and a half is more than enough for a player to rest after a hard season, IF he is not injured. That is precisely why in this very same thread we were all talking about how we didn't give a shite about TRC this year and we wanted to have virtually no friendlies, which is what happened.

The pressure is higher in a WC year BECAUSE of the world cup, but the pressure is lower in the moments preceding the world cup, which is the relevant part here.

Some of the players who underperform (Urdapilleta, Sanchez) didnt even play SR this season.
I dont see a shred of evidence to support the claim that resting was the problem.

Another problem with that argument is that if that were true, you would see the stats (less tackles, more % of missed tackles, etc) worsen across time. That is not the case.
The worst pumas performance was the first half of the first game.


Okay, let's compare Japan to Argentina. Both had the majority of their players playing Super Rugby that is now at the World Cup.

What's the difference? Japan rested their players for extended periods during the SR. Some players rested for 3-4 weeks inbetween matches. They even had a preparation camp in the middle of SR and the Sunwolves played with non-international players that week(s).
I cant buy that either.
You truly believe that Japan beat Ireland because they were well-rested? They didn't just beat them, they outplayed them.

Rest and preparation. That's the difference.
Preparation i can understand. Rest, all the evidence i have strongly implies that is not the case here.

Sanchez, Cubelli, Moroni and Boffelli having a brain fart on the first game has little to do with their lack of rest.
 

TRF_heineken

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In non world cup years players go from SR, to TRC to Mid-year internationals almost without a break. That is a very demanding schedule.
But in world cup years we have a 1 and a half month window between the last game (i'm not counting Randwick as i consider a 74-0 win more along the lines of a training).

Ask any sports physician and they will all, invariably, assure you that a month and a half is more than enough for a player to rest after a hard season, IF he is not injured. That is precisely why in this very same thread we were all talking about how we didn't give a shite about TRC this year and we wanted to have virtually no friendlies, which is what happened.

The pressure is higher in a WC year BECAUSE of the world cup, but the pressure is lower in the moments preceding the world cup, which is the relevant part here.

Some of the players who underperform (Urdapilleta, Sanchez) didnt even play SR this season.
I dont see a shred of evidence to support the claim that resting was the problem.

Another problem with that argument is that if that were true, you would see the stats (less tackles, more % of missed tackles, etc) worsen across time. That is not the case.
The worst pumas performance was the first half of the first game.



I cant buy that either.
You truly believe that Japan beat Ireland because they were well-rested? They didn't just beat them, they outplayed them.


Preparation i can understand. Rest, all the evidence i have strongly implies that is not the case here.

Sanchez, Cubelli, Moroni and Boffelli having a brain fart on the first game has little to do with their lack of rest.
Yeah look, I'm not a sports doctor, psychologist or any medical expert.

What I'm talking about is based on the previous World Cups while the Super Rugby was also on. And based on the track record of SA, and NZ winning the World cups while Super Rugby was in full flow with the current amount of teams more or less (2007, 2011, 2015).

Resting players during the SR, and keeping them fit throughout has been proven to keep the guys fresh and focused for the entire WC year.

Resting a player for 1 whole month isn't the answer either, his match readiness won't be up to scratch, and he will be in the same bracket as someone coming back from injury.

But by resting a player for 2 weeks or so seems to be the right time period to keep them in the best condition, both physically and mentally.

Hell, the last world cup NZ finished first, Aus second, and SA third followed by Argentina and the rest of the world...

Surely you can't be blind by this to see that there is a pattern, and that the teams who have won a World Cup in the modern era not only knows how to condition their players properly throughout the season, but also mentally prepare them for the tough road ahead.

Instead of refuting everything I say, why not consider it. After all, NZ, SA and Australia are heading to the playoffs...
 

Cruz_del_Sur

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Instead of refuting everything I say, why not consider it.
Sorry, maybe i wasn't clear.
I have considered it.
It wasn't me who refuted it, it was the evidence i see.

After all, NZ, SA and Australia are heading to the playoffs...
In 2007 Argentina wasn't playing SR, nor TRC and had amateur players in it's squad. We got 3rd place.
Following your logic, we should disband Jaguares and cancel our part in TRC...

I cant believe you actually wrote that line. It's as if you've never heard the "correlation doenst imply causation" phrase.

We phucked up, big time, but not in the way you describe.
 

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Sorry, maybe i wasn't clear.
I have considered it.
It wasn't me who refuted it, it was the evidence i see.


In 2007 Argentina wasn't playing SR, nor TRC and had amateur players in it's squad. We got 3rd place.
Following your logic, we should disband Jaguares and cancel our part in TRC...

I cant believe you actually wrote that line. It's as if you've never heard the "correlation doenst imply causation" phrase.

We phucked up, big time, but not in the way you describe.
Leave then. At least your guys will get some rest then...
 

Cruz_del_Sur

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That was not the point, but i can't say i'm surprised the actual point eluded you.
 

TRF_heineken

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Ugh, what's the point?? I'm giving you a perspective from my side of the pond, where we have seen what burnout does to players, how a World Cup campaign can go horribly wrong and what we did to fix that, and remain one of the best teams in RWC history.

But if that's not good enough for you, then I guess nothing will be. Enjoy moping around the house and blaming this all on the 30 minutes you sucked against France...

Instead of looking at ways to fix what is evidently broken.
 

Cruz_del_Sur

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I'm giving you a perspective from my side of the pond,
You are giving us your perspective from your side of the pond without an iota of evidence to support your view.
Not quite the same.

Instead of looking at ways to fix what is evidently broken.
That implies we are not trying to fix it. 3rd time: we are.
We just have a very different diagnosis of what the problem is.
And we are open to suggestions, but the evidence you've provided is poor at best. The correlation you mentioned is not short of saying that because i have 2 legs i should be able to run like Usain Bolt.

Again, burnouts are a well-documented phenomenon in sports, both medically and from a performance point of view.
The evidence i've seen in no way suggests or indicates that burn out is responsible for the Pumas' poor performance.
I am open-minded and asked you for evidence. I'm still waiting.

There are many testable and trackable metrics (number of injuries, meters ran, tackles made, etc) that would point in that direction if your perspective was true.
None of the ones i've seen, at least to date, supports your hypothesis, thou. None.

This is scientific method 101, elementary school stuff.
You come with a hypothesis, well that hypothesis should have visible and tangible consequences. Provide me with those and i'll be happy to change my mind.
Claims require evidence.
 

TRF_heineken

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You are giving us your perspective from your side of the pond without an iota of evidence to support your view.
Not quite the same.


That implies we are not trying to fix it. 3rd time: we are.
We just have a very different diagnosis of what the problem is.
And we are open to suggestions, but the evidence you've provided is poor at best. The correlation you mentioned is not short of saying that because i have 2 legs i should be able to run like Usain Bolt.

Again, burnouts are a well-documented phenomenon in sports, both medically and from a performance point of view.
The evidence i've seen in no way suggests or indicates that burn out is responsible for the Pumas' poor performance.
I am open-minded and asked you for evidence. I'm still waiting.

There are many testable and trackable metrics (number of injuries, meters ran, tackles made, etc) that would point in that direction if your perspective was true.
None of the ones i've seen, at least to date, supports your hypothesis, thou. None.

This is scientific method 101, elementary school stuff.
You come with a hypothesis, well that hypothesis should have visible and tangible consequences. Provide me with those and i'll be happy to change my mind.
Claims require evidence.
So according to you. Historic events where theories on this hypothesis were tested doesn’t count as scientific evidence?

Ok got it.
 

Cruz_del_Sur

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Historic events where theories on this hypothesis were tested doesn’t count as scientific evidence?
Show me the stats from those events and we'll talk.
For a lawyer you have quite a flimsy view of what constitutes evidence.
 

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Show me the stats from those events and we'll talk.
For a lawyer you have quite a flimsy view of what constitutes evidence.
Statistics aren't a sole issue of evidence. Many cases don't have the paperwork and statistics when it comes to a trial. Actually, come to think of it, I've never seen a case where a witness read out statistics such as the crime rate or whatever else.

Most cases make use of character witnesses. Personal experiences by witnesses. And a timeline of what happened in the past, which of course creates a precedent...

Stats. Yeah no, not so much...
 

Cruz_del_Sur

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Statistics aren't a sole issue of evidence.
Never said they were. That's a strawman.
I use statistics as an example as, for this particular case, it'd be the most simple way to prove/disprove your hypothesis.
 

TRF_heineken

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Never said they were. That's a strawman.
I use statistics as an example as, for this particular case, it'd be the most simple way to prove/disprove your hypothesis.
No you are basically refuting any other form of "evidence" that could be used as contention and solely want statistical analysis to support your argument.

To me, that's using a narrow margin. And perhaps the broadened view should be implemented. ARU has a good relationship with SARU, why not ask them for assistance? Surely the input former coaches and players can be used to look at things that stats alone might not provide.

A good example will be if a guy like Os Du Randt who won the world cup twice, both in the Amateur period and Professional period will provide input as to how the camps were prior to the world cup campaigns (not only the ones where we won), the morale, the mental training regimes, resting processes etc.

That is at least one thing to take into consideration.
 

Cruz_del_Sur

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No you are basically refuting any other form of "evidence" that could be used as contention and solely want statistical analysis to support your argument.
I re-read all your post and cant find such evidence. Mind quoting yourself with such evidence?
Thanks in advance.
 

TRF_heineken

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I re-read all your post and cant find such evidence. Mind quoting yourself with such evidence?
Thanks in advance.
Read your posts!!!! You are refuting it, not me
 

Cruz_del_Sur

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This is not rocket science.
I refuted your argument by stating you provided no evidence to back it up.
You then said you did.
I asked where.
Here we stand.
Try to keep up.
 

TRF_heineken

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This is not rocket science.
I refuted your argument by stating you provided no evidence to back it up.
You then said you did.
I asked where.
Here we stand.
Try to keep up.
Seriously? I'm trying to point out other matters that can help the ARU. I'm giving a hypothesis based on the past. I even gave an example as to how the ARU can go about to get the information, which I'm sure isn't that easily available, otherwise everyone would do it.

I'm certain SARU and the NZRU won't give you everything they have for their recipe to success at the world cup, as I'm sure it's a well guarded secret.

But here are some stats for you:

Argentina at the World Cup:

Number of tournaments: 9 (1987 - 2019)
Number of World Cups won: ZERO
Matches played: 41 (up to 11 October 2019)
Matches won: 21 (up to 11 October 2019)
Where did they finish:
1987: Pool Stage
1991: Pool Stage
1995: Pool Stage
1999: Quarter Final
2003: Pool Stage
2007: Third Place
2011: Quarter Final
2015: Fourth Place
2019: Pool Stage

South Africa at the World Cup:

Number of tournaments: 7 (1995 - 2019)
Number of World Cups won: 2
Matches played: 40* (up to 11 October 2019)
Matches won: 33* (up to 11 October 2019)
Where did they finish:
1995: Final (Won)
1999: Third Place
2003: Quarter Final
2007: Final (Won)
2011: Quarter Final
2015: Third Place
2019: Quarter final * (so far)


New Zealand at the World Cup:

Number of tournaments: 9 (1987 - 2019)
Number of World Cups won: 3
Matches played: 53 (up to 11 October 2019)
Matches won: 47* (up to 11 October 2019)
Where did they finish:
1987: Final (Won)
1991: Third Place
1995: Final (Second)
1999: Fourth Place
2003: Third Place
2007: Quarter Final
2011: Final (Won)
2015: Final (Won)
2019: Quarter final * (so far)

Now according to these STATS.

South Africa has an 82.5% win record
New Zealand has an 88.2% win record
Argentina has a 51.2% win record

Argentina is 30% less effective than NZ and SA.
Argentina has never been to a final.
Neither NZ nor SA has ever been knocked out in the Pool stages, and have progressed to the knockouts in every tournament they've been in.
Argentina has been eliminated in the Pool Stages 5 times. So NZ and SA have a 100% record to qualify for the Playoffs, while Argentina has a 44.4% record to qualify for the Playoffs.

But hey, who am I to judge the effectiveness of teams...
 

Cruz_del_Sur

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I'm struggling to accept you actually posted that.
I cannot believe you think that is evidence. I sincerely cannot.
How can anyone have a secondary education degree without knowing that correlation doesnt imply causation. And the sample size, dear lord...
Wow.
Mindblowing stuff.
 

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Ok, im going to try and break down this conversation.



1. @TRF_heineken Started by saying that because the Jags did not rest their players enough in Super rugby that would be justification on why Argentina had a dismal world cup personally think it was mainly because of a bad first half against France in what was a must-win game. Here I and H differ a bit.



[email protected]_del_Sur stated in reply that "The first thing that came to mind when I read your post was Japan. They are the closest comparable and although they don't have to play TRC that should fade out given the time we had between TRC (short version this year) and the WC. They are performing. We are not." I differ with Cruz on the fact that it's comparable, below I say why.

3. I am not sure what you mean by a fade out but regardless my take is that Japan is not comparable. I thought that Argentina would eclipse Japan and England for that matter based on the fact that they played with the same team for four years in SR and Internationally. Japan had a different philosophy, they never played their Japan players week in and week out they treated SR with disrespect, they performed badly and they got booted, but... it seems to have worked for them. the Argentina philosophy did not. It was to my surprise and I can guarantee you that. But my final comment on this point is that it's not comparable and my justification for this last statement is based on the contrasting philosophies that the Sunwolves and Jags took.



4. Cruz in your next point you say that if it was not for that first half against France then we would not have had this discussion. I agree. But you did lose to France and now we are having this discussion.



5. H responded that the difference was rest, and I agree with that but the other factors were that Japan had an easier group and home advantage. so if Argentina played Japan tomorrow then Argentina would win. But the draw was what it was and now we are here with Japan going to the quarters (maybe) and Arg already out. if I had to choose I would say the draw screwed them over more than their philosophy compared to Japan.



6. Cruz then responded, but he did not use the tough group as a scapegoat instead refuting that the concept of rest was an issue. This was the only justification he provided on why rest is not a factor "Another problem with that argument is that if that were true, you would see the stats (fewer tackles, more % of missed tackles, etc) worsen across time. That is not the case". I have one response to this. Minnows tend to make more tackles. Minnows tend to be less conditioned and drop off their tempo then they end up defending all the time. Go and check the WR site and see which teams have made the most tackles so far. So your tackle amount could arguably increase as the game goes on if rest is an issue, but let's not get caught up with this.



7. Cruz then said that he does not buy the argument that Japan beat Ireland because they were well-rested. H never mentioned Ireland vs Japan specifically but im sure no parties would object that it could be a valuable case study. Personally, I think that home advantage and complacency on the side of the Irish played a huge role in Japan winning. Let's acknowledge that our feelings regarding why Japan beat Ireland are a matter of opinion.



8. Cruz responded "Preparation I can understand. Rest, all the evidence I have strongly implied that is not the case here." rather attribute the failure to "Sanchez, Cubelli, Moroni and Boffelli having a brain fart on the first game"



9. I don't see the evidence that you provided up until this point, maybe it was this statement that served as your evidence: "In non world cup years, players go from SR, to TRC to Mid-year internationals almost without a break. That is a very demanding schedule. But in world cup years we have a 1 and a half month window between the last game. Ask any sports physician and they will all, invariably, assure you that a month and a half is more than enough for a player to rest after a hard season," so personally I would rather say the above is opinion instead of evidence. I am inclined to agree though that a month and a half should be enough to rest, however, Japan definitely could prepare much more for the World Cup while the Jags were focussed on the SR title.



10. H referenced previous world cups as to why rest was important. Our case study involves Super rugby teams resting players and then the impact it has on their national team's world cup. Here I agree then that we should look at past performances at world cups and whether those teams rested players in a world cup year during SR.



11. Cruz says he has considered it. But that the evidence itself has refuted the possibility. Here I wonder, was this evidence that Cruz refers to the bolded part at point 9? Does Cruz believe that quote overrides the other evidence such as the bolded part in point 10?



12. Cruz then followed up by saying "In 2007 Argentina wasn't playing SR, nor TRC and had amateur players in its squad. We got 3rd place." and Cruz said, "following your logic, we should disband Jaguares and cancel our part in TRC..."

From my understanding that was not what H said, instead be part of SR and rest more, that's what he said. But the quotes you made here are damning, it's true that in 2007 you did not play in SR and its true that you made it to the Semis that year. That team was undoubtedly more rested and they made the Semis so yes H's argument on rest does gain more prominence here with the evidence you brought up. Personally, I still think that the tough group was the reason that Argentina exited at the group stage despite the evidence but if we are going to look at this specific case study of 2007 then it is damning. Naturally there are much more factors in play so we cant delve to deep into this.



13. H then takes it a little personally and says leave then, eluding that the rest might, after all, be better for Argentina. It probably not meant literally though, but the evidence that Cruz provided does reinforce the point of H.



14. Cruz then says he is not sure the actual point eluded H. I wonder what was the actual point? Was the actual point just that we need to discount the rest factor as the main reason for the Argentinian WC exit was a **** first half against France? then I would like to add yes it could be and then also the tough group with England in but surely there is no valid reason to throw away the rest suggestion. Im sorry, Cruz but you simply have not provided enough evidence to the contrary to refute the rest idea.



In other words, I don't think the France game can be used as a contrasting point against the rest argument. Rather that all these factors should supplement each other in trying to determine the reasoning. Then hopefully a way forward for Argentina. The four year project failed last week, but IMO SR is stil the best way forward to develop Argentina
 
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TRF_heineken

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it’s okay @unrated. Clearly there’s a communication issue here.

Anyway, I’m done here. No point going in circles and making it personal.

I’ll just ignore the rest of this thread.
 

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it’s okay @unrated. Clearly there’s a communication issue here.

Anyway, I’m done here. No point going in circles and making it personal.

I’ll just ignore the rest of this thread.
besides your arguing with Cruz (in this case I agree with him more than with you) but still you have a point here. imo there is a rest factor, I think we all here appreciate your thoughts right or wrong.
so keep it up.
there was a lot of arguing about the jags in this thread before the wc. some said we would be clicking for the wc. Kearns even said we where cheats cos we where using our national team in a SR comp and would had a huge advanrage! otrers said we would be tired and worn of ( kind of what you are saing)
with the results on hand I have to give you some credit.
my opinion is that we didn't click as some expected why? there's lots of reasons being tired is one of them
the game with France was as close as it can be! won that and we would not be having this conversation. (two penalties and a conversion missed) that great drop goal by France. and two penalties in the last min that the ref missed.
so I don't think we did so bad besides those horrible 20 min. (well played by France btw)
the rest was more ore less as espected beat tonga. beat USA. lost to England ( the if factor over lavanini) but don't think we would have won it either way I could have been much closer? yes.
why we where off the wc ?
As you say mentaly phisycal exhausted.
Bad selection (Bonilla mottI isa cordero)
Some players didn't show up
Sanchez moyano bonfelli among others)
No concentration in that first halve vs France.
The horrible two years with hourcade that got us to this, the hardest group.
Bigger expectations than previous wc.(not dealing with preasure) choking
Still first steps into profesionalism
 
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