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[COVID-19] General Discussion

A few people have said sport will be suspended for at least a month. Where has this timeframe come from?

At what point does the world stop trying to contain it?

Is the hope that it will just go away if we wait long enough?

or are we going to wait for a few years until we've developed a cure, and then stop trying to contain it?

apologies for my ignorance, haven't been keeping up with this too well.
 
Sure TheOvalBall that's what's happening.....


Anyway in regards to rugby I'm guessing the summer tours will be cancelled can't see it being over by then. I think the Autumn Internationals will be cancelled and replaced with 6 nations possibly rugby championship games but they might get by. Really depends on where we are in all this.
 
A few people have said sport will be suspended for at least a month. Where has this timeframe come from?

At what point does the world stop trying to contain it?

Is the hope that it will just go away if we wait long enough?

or are we going to wait for a few years until we've developed a cure, and then stop trying to contain it?

apologies for my ignorance, haven't been keeping up with this too well.
The simple answer is that a cure (vaccine) is by most accounts 12-18 months away. Reality is for most countries this about not overwhelming health services and dramatically increasing the mortality rate. But most people you know are likely to have it at one stage or another.

That's simply because there is no vaccine and it has a high transmission rate. You can limit the infection rate through social distancing and full on quarantine in China has shown after an amount of time you can start to reduce it. But is that even feasable for 18months? Then there's added time for mass production.

All of this is about management of the virus unless someone really does come up miracle.
 
Hard to see anything other than the leagues and champions cup being written off. Sucks as a fan of a team who was top seed in one and runaway leader of the other but that's life and some things are more important.

Six Nations I guess if things have died down by November they'll try to squeeze the games in then but that's a huge if and doesn't necessarily seem likely right now.

Reality is that the rugby calendar is crowded as it is and even a delay of a few weeks (and this is almost certainly going to be more than that) will create massive issues.

Because it's been mentioned they should really just call the premier league, when they're an above 99% chance of one team winning with 9 games to play they should just hand them the ***le. In other football talk is Euros will go ahead in 2021.
 
Big issue Football wise is promotion and relegation there's huge amounts of money on the line for that up and down the league.
 
So what do you guys think is realistically going to happen with competitions that has been suspended due to the Corona virus. The rugby season is already tightly packed and if it is suspended four a couple of weeks then the domestic competitions might start overlapping with the international seasons. The SH does not do the int VS Dom overlap like they do in the NH. The Corona virus will first get worse before it gets better so realistically I think no rugby for Atleast four weeks minimum.

So if they rather call of the competitions instead of just moving it forward which I think is more likely then what is the procedure? Will this year just be a blank year where there is no winner? So would Liverpool lose out on the ***le if the premier league season is suspended? Will they just give it to the first placed side? Liverpool fans are probably ******** themselves now because they were about to win it. Same thing with all the other comps, will the Sharks or Exeter or Sale or Leinster just take the spoils?


I have so many questions! What's more likely a suspended season, a Called off season or a rescheduling?

Speaking purely as a (dirty) Leeds fan, this is purely a selfish opinion. Leeds and WBA could be promoted to form 22 team premiership Not sure anybody could argue with that.
I've also thought , depending on how things progress, the remaining fixtures of all the leagues could be decided by penalty shoot outs. Just go through all the remaining fixtures one summers day at an empty wembley (5 max pens each). Surely that would be better than voiding all the leagues after 80% of matches played ,and a great days entertainment to boot.
This is purely the football leagues, not sure about the rugby.
 
So what has been peoples shopping habits be honest are you hoarding.
My observation kids under 20 don't worry about this.
Oldies over 50 realise we had worse threats than this in our lives.
20 to 50 have had it good and never had it so good to quote a saying or generally faced dangers and are sh&%$@g themselves as its playing with there minds.
Stay safe wash your hands.

for people born around the same time of me, more of us have already passed due to school shootings than will pass due to COVID-19. This virus really isn't that scary.
 
A few people have said sport will be suspended for at least a month. Where has this timeframe come from?

At what point does the world stop trying to contain it?

Is the hope that it will just go away if we wait long enough?

or are we going to wait for a few years until we've developed a cure, and then stop trying to contain it?

apologies for my ignorance, haven't been keeping up with this too well.

From a UK perspective my understanding is that the aim isn't to completely stop it from spreading, because it would then just return at a later (and potentially worse) time. I.e. if the government put the UK on lock-down, everyone quarantined for a couple of weeks to see who currently has it, the virus could potentially be contained. However as soon as the country starts back up again there's a very good chance of it starting to spread once more, however now the peak would be towards next winter instead of the this coming summer as it stands now.

Therefore the aim is to limit the spread, but not prevent it entirely. This way the peak is reduced, but spread over a longer time during the late spring/summer months. This will lessen the burden on the health service, and by pushing the majority of the peak into summer months, there will be less normal flue etc. to contend with. This will all hopefully save lives whilst enabling a natural immunity to develop amongst the population as it spreads and most people suffer from mild sumptoms.

Hopefully at the end of all that a vaccine will be ready, and it will then be dealt with as we do with other seasonal flu's.

Whether the UK government is doing everything correctly to ensure this is achieved I don't know. Time will tell on that front.
 
I'm so tired so this crap. World wide panic over something that should not be so big. Don't trust the media people. They are experts at blowing things out of proportion and downright lying. Just keep clean and you will be fine.
Complacency is just as dangerous as panic
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From a UK perspective my understanding is that the aim isn't to completely stop it from spreading, because it would then just return at a later (and potentially worse) time. I.e. if the government put the UK on lock-down, everyone quarantined for a couple of weeks to see who currently has it, the virus could potentially be contained. However as soon as the country starts back up again there's a very good chance of it starting to spread once more, however now the peak would be towards next winter instead of the this coming summer as it stands now.

Therefore the aim is to limit the spread, but not prevent it entirely. This way the peak is reduced, but spread over a longer time during the late spring/summer months. This will lessen the burden on the health service, and by pushing the majority of the peak into summer months, there will be less normal flue etc. to contend with. This will all hopefully save lives whilst enabling a natural immunity to develop amongst the population as it spreads and most people suffer from mild sumptoms.

Hopefully at the end of all that a vaccine will be ready, and it will then be dealt with as we do with other seasonal flu's.

Whether the UK government is doing everything correctly to ensure this is achieved I don't know. Time will tell on that front.

That's certainly the U.K. plan which is directly opposed to the direction that S. Korea, China and Singapore have taken.

There are however a couple of significant assumptions being made.:

A) It's possible design and time interventions to flatten the curve sufficiently and that the populace follow the directions of the state to enable this
B) This doesn't follow the pattern of some other human transmissible corona virus that can reinfect the same host
C Vaccination ever becomes possible. No SARS vaccination ever made it through testing

It has been clear to me that there was no real effort to "contain" within the U.K. There's also limited measures to "delay. As evidenced up thread, flights from highly infected regions were landing with impunity with no testing or follow-up. The chance to adequately execute say a South Korean approach was probably missed at that point (should it ever have been feasible). There is certainly logic being applied and having watched both Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance explain their plan it's not without merit.

However I'm minded of a certain Mike Tyson quote:

"Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth"

There isn't a consensus that the plan is the right way to go. However, having committed to that path, others are probably already unavailable. We are looking at mass infections in the U.K. for the plan to work. I hope once again that the powers that be have called this correctly. Those believing that there's an overreaction may of course be right. Based on what I've seen regarding the situation in Italy and Wuhan it's essential that health care services remain viable. In both of those places care effectively collapsed and the mortality rate moved from around 1% into significantly more worrying territory.

Good luck everyone. If you're young and fit this will probably be nothing more than a crap couple of days but show some compassion for the old and infirm. The evidence thus far is that it impact those groups disproportionately.
 
Complacency is just as dangerous as panic
In this case, complacency is much, much worse than panic.

This is very simple: you have 4 scenarios.
1) The situation is dire and you react very aggressively.
2) The situation is not as bad as people think and you are relatively cool.
3) The situation is dire and you are cool
4) The situation is not as bad as you think but you react very aggressively

Let's remember you don't "know" how dire the situation is, you guess, sometimes with good info, sometimes without it. If you wait too much to get enough info you might be late to react, that's part of the point.

1) and 2) are no brainers as the response matches what is required by the situation and 3) and 4) are what is called in statistics as Type I and Type II errors (when you reject a null hypothesis while it is true, and accepting a false null hypothesis). Most responses imply a trade-off between the costs of both of those.
In this case, it is obvious for anyone with two functioning brain cells, that the cost for 3 is higher than the cost of 4, so it is better to overreact than to underreact. You don't want to waste resources and cause unnecessary panic (keyword unnecessary) but if your choice is between "bad" and "worse", if you hesitate to pick bad just because it comes at a cost, you are an idiot.

Let's remember the overwhelming majority of the countries we are following here are not Somalia, Chad, Sudan, Venezuela, or Haiti. We are talking about relatively rich countries that can weather out an economic hit.

When you face a crisis you need to address the bottleneck first, and the bottleneck here is the medical system's capacity, in particular, the capacity to handle people with respiratory problems, meaning beds, nurses, doctors, and respirators are key. Overreacting does not harm you in achieving that (although it might incur in some unnecessary economic cost). Being slow to react does put more pressure on that bottleneck.
 
Blimey. We get an order of from from sainsburys every week, usually order tues/wed for next days delivery. Just had a look, as i thought it would be getting booked up quicker.There are no spare slots for next 3 weeks, which is as far as you can book in advance.

"We have limited delivery availability due to extremely high demand. We are doing everything we can to improve this situation"
 
That's certainly the U.K. plan which is directly opposed to the direction that S. Korea, China and Singapore have taken.

There are however a couple of significant assumptions being made.:

A) It's possible design and time interventions to flatten the curve sufficiently and that the populace follow the directions of the state to enable this
B) This doesn't follow the pattern of some other human transmissible corona virus that can reinfect the same host
C Vaccination ever becomes possible. No SARS vaccination ever made it through testing

It has been clear to me that there was no real effort to "contain" within the U.K. There's also limited measures to "delay. As evidenced up thread, flights from highly infected regions were landing with impunity with no testing or follow-up. The chance to adequately execute say a South Korean approach was probably missed at that point (should it ever have been feasible). There is certainly logic being applied and having watched both Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance explain their plan it's not without merit.

However I'm minded of a certain Mike Tyson quote:

"Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth"

There isn't a consensus that the plan is the right way to go. However, having committed to that path, others are probably already unavailable. We are looking at mass infections in the U.K. for the plan to work. I hope once again that the powers that be have called this correctly. Those believing that there's an overreaction may of course be right. Based on what I've seen regarding the situation in Italy and Wuhan it's essential that health care services remain viable. In both of those places care effectively collapsed and the mortality rate moved from around 1% into significantly more worrying territory.

Good luck everyone. If you're young and fit this will probably be nothing more than a crap couple of days but show some compassion for the old and infirm. The evidence thus far is that it impact those groups disproportionately.

Britain's strategy is imo the most sensible, especially when there's no guarantees of a vaccine. Countries like those you've highlighted above will be reliant on the development of a vaccine, otherwise when they open the borders again they'd be hard pressed to stop it from spreading once more, just as most of the world have failed in preventing the initial spread, and in the same way common seasonal flu's spread across the world every year.

If a working vaccine is found in the next couple of months then preventing the spread would certainly have been the best approach, but I think it's only sensible to plan as if it'll take years at best.

I know there have been reports of people contracting the virus more than once, but the body's immune system is pretty incredible, and I'd probably back it to develop an immunity before we're able to develop a vaccine. It's possible to catch a lot of things more than once (e.g. chicken pocks), but on the whole that's not the case, especially with cold and flue like viruses.
 
Blimey. We get an order of from from sainsburys every week, usually order tues/wed for next days delivery. Just had a look, as i thought it would be getting booked up quicker.There are no spare slots for next 3 weeks, which is as far as you can book in advance.

"We have limited delivery availability due to extremely high demand. We are doing everything we can to improve this situation"
Heard that people around here are hoarding delivery slots.
Booking 2 a week for as far forward as allowed, putting some wine in there to meet the minimum spend, and editting the basket as they think of things, but taking the wine if they forget / don't need anything.

FFS - why are people so Fing selfish?
 
Heard that people around here are hoarding delivery slots.
Booking 2 a week for as far forward as allowed, putting some wine in there to meet the minimum spend, and editting the basket as they think of things, but taking the wine if they forget / don't need anything.

FFS - why are people so Fing selfish?

Human nature I'm afraid. Look after yourself and your family. It's how we are designed to be. This is bringing out the worst in society.
Doesn't mean we have to follow the Hurd mind you.
 
This virus really isn't that scary.
I'm in my 30s. The virus isn't at all scary for me. I have elderly parents who have health issues. It's potentially very scary for them.

If everyone shows common sense through good hygiene and observing social distancing this will pass. That's a big if because there are enough idiots who'll screw things up and overwhelm the health service.

People should behave as though they already have the virus and do everything in their power not to spread it to anyone else who may be more vulnerable.
 
A few people have said sport will be suspended for at least a month. Where has this timeframe come from?

At what point does the world stop trying to contain it?

Is the hope that it will just go away if we wait long enough?

or are we going to wait for a few years until we've developed a cure, and then stop trying to contain it?

apologies for my ignorance, haven't been keeping up with this too well.

I think it has to do with the 2-week period for the virus to be detected on a person. At least that's my understanding as to how the media is reporting on it. So 2 weeks for the virus to be detected, and then 2 more weeks for it to clear.

South Africa's President made a big announcement yesterday and issued a travel ban to all major foreign countries that has been hit by the virus. No public gatherings of more than 100 people are allowed, and the schools are all closing their doors until after the Easter holidays.

Prevention is the first line of defence. And for a third-world country like SA, where the number of people infected which started at 1 and gone up to over 20 in less than a week, seems like a very serious situation.
 
for people born around the same time of me, more of us have already passed due to school shootings than will pass due to COVID-19. This virus really isn't that scary.
You are looking at it from the wrong angle. The scary thing is not how lethal it is, but how contagious it can be.
From a standalone perspective, it has very little chances of killing you, even if u do nothing once you become ill. However, it has a ridiculously high chance of collapsing any medical system in the planet if not addressed properly.

The biggest "tell" is that the very same politicians that were disregarding that problem 2 weeks ago are not urging people to comply with the government's advice.

Did you guys see this? https://twitter.com/stereophonics/status/1238976755022680065

Stupid, stupid people.
 
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