looking at the likely results a 3-way tie is still quite likely. If Argentina gat a bonus v Ireland and Ireland don't v France, then Argentina will go ahead of France as ties between two teams go down to the head to head between them. The bonus points v Georgia and any losing bonuses could be crucial. I can see 4 tries for France against Ireland too. ultimately each team has their own qualification within their own hands. Ireland don't look good, and only have 1 bonus point, whereas Argentina look set to get 2 from matches versus the minnows in the group. I also expect France will put 4 past Georgia, unless they seek to play the Georgians at the physical forward game. If 3 teams all lose 1 match, then i can see Ireland losing out on bonuses, but they haven't lost a game yet so i won't write them off.