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Wales Tour 2013: Japan

So I assume we now cut four? Who stays at home? We need five props, 4 for the 23 and one in case one drops in the warmup, etc.
Likewise, three hookers. So maybe Sam Hobbs and McCusker or Pretorius for the forwards, maybe Baker as well. Backs are tough, could say Patchell and have Shingler as reserve standoff. Liam Williams could be susceptible to injury, so we could see Howells go.
 
I'm still kinda hoping that Patchell will go to the U20 WC (but is he missing training?). I think we will need Biggar playing the majority of both tests in order to offer a little stability to our side, so I don't want Patchell to be in Japan and only get very limited game-time. Much better to his development if he goes to France and play a number of games at a decent level.
 
C'mon duck, our defensive structure is usually superb. Yes it struggled in the Autumn, but it seemed to deteriorate slightly along with the rest of our game, but this was the blip, not the other way round. We didn't concede a single try in almost four and a half games of 6 nations rugby, and we only conceded was it 3 in last seasons 6 nations.

Samoa will always put in some big hits like those you've shown above, but in general they are not as disciplined as Wales are. Shaun Edwards should be able to prepare a defensive system that will deal with Japan trying some fancy loop moves, probably behind the gain-line.

I feel you are putting too much emphasis on how well Japan played against a Samoa side which obviously weren't at their best on the day. At the same time you use examples of Wales at their worst during the Autumn. Wales have certainly moved on from that, and their last game was actually one of the best performances a Welsh side has produced in the professional era.

It just seems to me that you're saying that because Japan came within a few points of beating Samoa, and that Samoa beat Wales, that that means that Japan will beat Wales. Using the same logic I can't wait for our next game against the AB's, we're gonna smash them by 60 points on the evidence of beating England by 27 points, who in turn convincingly beat NZ in the Autumn.

The Welsh side will be completely different from that which was used in the 6 nations and in the Autumn anyway, so using any past examples is probably a bit useless. However one thing we do know, and that is Shaun Edwards' capability to quickly get a defensive system in place and all the players on the same page in that regard. An example of this is how he managed to transform Wales defence post RWC 2007 from one that conceded tries against everyone, into one of the best defences in 6 nations history the following spring.
he does have a point and remember its japan that wales are playing they will be the one getting dominated in defence not wales
 
Forwards: Ryan Bevington (Ospreys), Rhys Gill (Saracens), Emyr Phillips (Scarlets), Scott Baldwin (Ospreys), Scott Andrews (Blues), Craig Mitchell (Exeter Chiefs), Rhodri Jones (Scarlets), Bradley Davies (Blues), Lou Reed (Blues), Andrew Coombs (Dragons), James King (Ospreys), Aaron Shingler (Scarlets), Dan Baker (Ospreys), Rob McCusker (Scarlets), Andries Pretorius (Blues).

Backs: Lloyd Williams (Blues), Tavis Knoyle (Scarlets), Dan Biggar (Ospreys), Rhys Patchell (Blues), Ashley Beck (Ospreys), Owen Williams (Blues), Jonathan Spratt (Ospreys), Dafydd Howells (Ospreys), Liam Williams (Scarlets), Harry Robinson (Blues), Tom Prydie (Dragons), Steven Shingler (London Irish).
 
No Navidi? Back row doesn't look all too great. I assume either Shingler or McCusker will be openside then.
 
C'mon duck, our defensive structure is usually superb. Yes it struggled in the autumn, but it seemed to deteriorate slightly along with the rest of our game, but this was the blip, not the other way round. We didn't concede a single try in almost four and a half games of 6 nations rugby, and we only conceded was it 3 in last season's 6 nations.

Went through this on a previous post. Wales' top team's defence has been good dealing with attacks that have midfield who can't/won't pass to their wingers. England and France haven't clocked that their attack strategy isn't working against Wales despite not scoring for 2 years. Whilst not conceding against Scotland is hardly unprecedented, and Italy not scoring in soaking conditions with Kris Burton single handedly making the Italy attack a non-entity is hardly something either. Italy's attacks in the backline with Burton hardly looked like threatening Canada in bright sunny conditions. Edwards defensive system not been so effective against teams who play with more width.

Samoa will always put in some big hits like those you've shown above, but in general they are not as disciplined as Wales are.

I agree like Wales at their best like in 2011 RWC.

But we're not talking about Wales anywhere near their best though. This Wales side has some very average players in it, considering what Samoa have achieved against full strength sides these past 2 years and have done well in defence as well I don't see how this weakened Wales will be as strong defensively. The gap between AWJ/Lydiate/Warburton/Faletau compared to the players in this squad is wide.

So the "it's all very well doing that against Samoa argument but Wales …" is a poor one.

Shaun Edwards should be able to prepare a defensive system that will deal with Japan trying some fancy loop moves, probably behind the gain-line.

Where was his defensive system to deal with teams spreading the ball wide with less than fancy set moves? Seems just a mere single dummy runner did the trick for Argentina and Ireland, and none of these teams dominated up front. He has worse players to do it with now.

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I feel you are putting too much emphasis on how well Japan played against a Samoa side which obviously weren't at their best on the day. At the same time you use examples of Wales at their worst during the Autumn. Wales have certainly moved on from that, and their last game was actually one of the best performances a Welsh side has produced in the professional era.

That England match is hardly relevant considering that 14 of the starting XV aren't playing.

The examples of Wales conceding tries have mostly come against sides playing a wide game. That was the point I was making. Japan will have much better passers in midfield than England had when they failed to open up the Welsh defence.

Also I suggest you watch the Japan Samoa match first before making assumptions, Japan can play better than that, Samoa weren't at their best but they still were better a first choice Scotland side (stronger than this Wales side) the following week and were robbed by one of the most stupid official decisions seen in modern professional rugby.

It just seems to me that you're saying that because Japan came within a few points of beating Samoa, and that Samoa beat Wales, that that means that Japan will beat Wales. Using the same logic I can't wait for our next game against the AB's, we're gonna smash them by 60 points on the evidence of beating England by 27 points, who in turn convincingly beat NZ in the Autumn.

Not really. I'm using what evidence there is of Japan's form to gauge their level. Samoa happen to be the only team that both sides have played recently. This point suggests to me you haven't read all my posts properly.

I am looking at potential problems, and it seems that the style of Japan's attack has caused more problems for Wales' defensive system than the styles used in the 6 Nations. Then add to that the players will be much weaker. I could very easily point out problems and weaknesses in Japan's team as well. But am focusing on Wales and looking at where Japan can get on top as most seem to be dismissing Japan.

Wales are missing 20 odd players in June; your logic would only be relevant if it was the first choice side. Considering it isn't and there are some average players like Spratt, Liam Williams, Reed, Coombs, Baldwin and McCusker likely to be about in around the team who are a country mile off the player they are replacing.

Anyway as for the All Blacks point ...

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The Welsh side will be completely different from that which was used in the 6 nations and in the Autumn anyway, so using any past examples is probably a bit useless. However one thing we do know, and that is Shaun Edwards' capability to quickly get a defensive system in place and all the players on the same page in that regard. An example of this is how he managed to transform Wales defence post RWC 2007 from one that conceded tries against everyone, into one of the best defences in 6 nations history the following spring.

Exactly, it will be weaker. The players are not of a level of those in 2008. Sure Edwards got the defence working quickly, but this Wales side cannot be compared to the level of those players. I'm not saying Edwards' defence is weak, but if there is a way of beating of it, then Japan have a good strategy to do so.
 
Where's Navidi? Any news on if he's injured or unavailable for some reason? Makes no sense to cut him, seeing as he was the only 7 in the squad, and has been one of the form back rowers in Wales this season.

@ Duck. I won't say too much more, because we're going round in circles. There is a big, big difference between Austrailia, Ireland, and Argentina compared to Japan.

My point with the 'not the same side' thing is that it is unfair to pre-judge. Of course they won't be as good as the first team, bit it doesn't automatically mean they will get ripped to shreds by Japan. Have a little faith in these players, and don't write them off straight away.
 
Where's Navidi? Any news on if he's injured or unavailable for some reason? Makes no sense to cut him, seeing as he was the only 7 in the squad, and has been one of the form back rowers in Wales this season.

It makes sense the kind of people who have the Scarlets mentality of back row play. So I blame some sort of Turk influence on getting McCusker and Shingler into the team at 7 and 8 both awfully out of position.

@ Duck. I won't say too much more, because we're going round in circles. There is a big, big difference between Austrailia, Ireland, and Argentina compared to Japan.

dullonien. What you need to understand is that those sides are better overall products. I am referring and looking at one specific aspect where Japan can cause problems. And that is that they have a very good wide game, in this aspect they are better than some Tier 1 sides and no there isn't "a big big difference". And I include Wales in that, as the centres don't pass. There's a "big big difference" in tackling, rucking and decision making under pressure. But there is one aspect Japan excel at is the open wide game, being a better team overall doesn't make you better at everything. For example, Fiji are one of the top teams in the world in the aspect of running in open play, and they possess a danger there that should be noted, even if there are other areas they are found wanting.

My point with the 'not the same side' thing is that it is unfair to pre-judge. Of course they won't be as good as the first team, bit it doesn't automatically mean they will get ripped to shreds by Japan. Have a little faith in these players, and don't write them off straight away.

dullonien, I have seen most of these players regularly at regional level and a fair few of them have had chances for Wales as well. And I have a pretty good idea of how far there is between Phillips to Hibbard at 2, Andrews to Adam at 3, Coombs and Bradley to AWJ and Ian Evans at locks, Shingler is to Tipuric at 7, McCusker is to Faletau at 8, Spratt to Davies at 13, Prydie is to Cuthbert at 14, Liam Williams is to Halfpenny at 15.

None of those mentioned players excite me, the one who I am most looking forward to watch is Ashley Beck.

Anyway, the point is that these players are down at a level where Japan should certainly be competitive, and do possess a dozen players who would get in the composite XV of the Wales side they are playing. Especially in the backs. I don't think this Wales side would have a chance against Samoa, and I reckon Scotland, Italy and Tonga would have them as well. So it's more around the level where losing is plausible.

Good call as he is a warrior who gives his all and deserves the honor

Debatable. He would deserve the honour more if he hadn't been on poor form all season, and there hadn't been the pub fighting and Donnacha Ryan spear tackle incidents.
 
http://www.wru.co.uk/eng/news/26934.php#.UaSftkDVDzl

Beck and Shingler are out.

This means Spratt will almost certainly add to his caps total now. Sensible that Navidi is there as 7 now, but Shingler would have been useful if he played 6 as he is more physical whilst King adn Navidi, McCusker are more work rate and technique than strong ball carriers or knock back tacklers.
 
http://www.wru.co.uk/eng/news/26934.php#.UaSftkDVDzl

Beck and Shingler are out.

This means Spratt will almost certainly add to his caps total now. Sensible that Navidi is there as 7 now, but Shingler would have been useful if he played 6 as he is more physical whilst King adn Navidi, McCusker are more work rate and technique than strong ball carriers or knock back tacklers.

Both big losses, I don't see how Warren who has played barely a dozen matches this season and never looked outstanding gets called up. Warren-Spratt would be the most uninspiring midfield we've had in a long time, with not even bosh to offer. We could actually have a worse midfield than Bishop-Davies four years ago. Shame to lose Shingler as well, offers more around the field than the others. McStupid is not guaranteed to add to his test cap totals.
 
So we all agreed that Pretorius isn't an 8 but a 6, but is a better one than McCusker?

I hope Shingler plays midfield ahead of Spratt or Warren. But I don't think he will as the coaches have preferred the latter two in the past. In fairness we are short on centres, the drop off from the top 3 or 4 to the quality of the 3 or 4 after that is a large one. A pity Henson is not considered really, that would have been exciting. Spratt and Warren is not. Any chance a certain Japan based wing//scrum half could get called up if a late injury occurs on tour?

Japan will have a better centre pairing now, although they lost their top fly half Kosei Ono (who comes from the same school that produced Mehrtens, Carter and played in the same school team as Slade and O Franks) in the Tonga match through knee injury which is a blow for them.
 
So we all agreed that Pretorius isn't an 8 but a 6, but is a better one than McCusker?

I hope Shingler plays midfield ahead of Spratt or Warren. But I don't think he will as the coaches have preferred the latter two in the past. In fairness we are short on centres, the drop off from the top 3 or 4 to the quality of the 3 or 4 after that is a large one. A pity Henson is not considered really, that would have been exciting. Spratt and Warren is not. Any chance a certain Japan based wing//scrum half could get called up if a late injury occurs on tour?

Japan will have a better centre pairing now, although they lost their top fly half Kosei Ono (who comes from the same school that produced Mehrtens, Carter and played in the same school team as Slade and O Franks) in the Tonga match through knee injury which is a blow for them.

Shingler would be a much better option indeed. He is a tall player who can fill out to be a physical option as well. I'd like to see him at inside centre offering bulk if needed but primarily as a playmaker outside Biggar.

I would put Pretorius ahead of McCusker, yes.
 
Japan's chances decreased a lot after today. Unfortunately for them, their flanker Michael Leitch, who is their best forward and a player they rely heavily on appeared to suffer a serious injury (possible broken leg). He was their only forward who would have comfortably been stronger than Wales' opposite number. He's a strong ball carrier but most importantly by far their best at the breakdown.

To sum it up from a Welsh point of view, losing Leitch is the equivalent in value to them as losing Adam is to us. Or similar to the time when Martyn Williams was at his best and the reserve is far inferior. He is quite simply their MVP, and the replacements aren't near up to his level and Nili Latu and Akapusi Qera both have managed to wreak havoc at the breakdown winning holding on penalties and turnovers these last two matches without Leitch vs Tonga and after he went off against Fiji.

Their attack in their backline is still good. But their platform provided at the rucks has not been impressive, nor has some of the decision making of the half backs (their first choice fly half Kosei Ono also got injured in the last match and Tanaka still with the Highlanders).
 
This is the probable Wales team accoring to WalesOnline:

Wales (probable): Liam Williams (Scarlets); D Howells (Ospreys), O Williams (Blues), J Spratt (Ospreys), H Robinson (Blues); D Biggar (Ospreys), Lloyd Williams (Blues); R Bevington (Ospreys), E Phillips (Scarlets), S Andrews (Blues), B Davies (capt, Blues), L Reed (Blues), A Coombs (Dragons), R McCusker (Scarlets), J King (Ospreys).

If this is true, I am hugely uninspired. I don't understand picking Lou Reed ahead of Coombs at lock, and playing Coombs in the backrow with King out of position at 7! Regardless of what some here think, Navidi has had a great season and deserves a starting spot ahead of Bradley Davies, Lou Reed and McCusker. I'd also prefer a backrow with King at 6 and Sam Lewis at 7.

Why Andrews ahead of Mitchell?

That backline is a bit pants as well! Spratt ahead of Shingler?
 
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This is the probable Wales team accoring to WalesOnline:

Wales (probable): Liam Williams (Scarlets); D Howells (Ospreys), O Williams (Blues), J Spratt (Ospreys), H Robinson (Blues); D Biggar (Ospreys), Lloyd Williams (Blues); R Bevington (Ospreys), E Phillips (Scarlets), S Andrews (Blues), B Davies (capt, Blues), L Reed (Blues), A Coombs (Dragons), R McCusker (Scarlets), J King (Ospreys).

If this is true, I am hugely uninspired. I don't understand picking Lou Reed ahead of Coombs at lock, and playing Coombs in the backrow with King out of position at 7! Regardless of what some here think, Navidi has had a great season and deserves a starting spot ahead of Bradley Davies, Lou Reed and McCusker.

Why Andrews ahead of Mitchell?

That backline is a bit pants as well!
That pack is an absolute load of ****. Andrews over Mitchell? McCusker?? Spratt over Shingler, who is superior in every aspect that matters?
 
This is the probable Wales team accoring to WalesOnline:

Wales (probable): Liam Williams (Scarlets); D Howells (Ospreys), O Williams (Blues), J Spratt (Ospreys), H Robinson (Blues); D Biggar (Ospreys), Lloyd Williams (Blues); R Bevington (Ospreys), E Phillips (Scarlets), S Andrews (Blues), B Davies (capt, Blues), L Reed (Blues), A Coombs (Dragons), R McCusker (Scarlets), J King (Ospreys).

If this is true, I am hugely uninspired. I don't understand picking Lou Reed ahead of Coombs at lock, and playing Coombs in the backrow with King out of position at 7! Regardless of what some here think, Navidi has had a great season and deserves a starting spot ahead of Bradley Davies, Lou Reed and McCusker. I'd also prefer a backrow with King at 6 and Sam Lewis at 7.

Why Andrews ahead of Mitchell?

That backline is a bit pants as well! Spratt ahead of Shingler?

Dullonien. Me and I think Draggs as well both agreed that Navidi would be the best option to avoid a situation like the Scarlets have had all season with an unbalanced back row not really functioning. It's just that we think he won't really be much needed much by Wales with Warburton and Tipuric available.

I don't really like that team tbh. It's one thing playing Bevington with Adam Jones, or Andrews with Paul James, but together that is not a combination I can see working against stronger scrums, so it would have been better to give the game time to Mitchell. Japan aren't strong in the scrum, but that doesn't mean you don't pick your best scrummagers as it just gives them more chance of getting away with the weakness more easily. So whilst I would doubt they will struggle, it will be failure if Japan can get away with not conceding penalties and the scrum isn't shunting them backwards. I am excited to see what Bevington can offer in the loose, he is inconsistent as ever at scrums varying from good one week to liability the next, but is consistent in the loose.

John Yapp was the tighthead 4 years ago btw :lol: he still managed with Duncan to get on top of the Canadians I think in fairness, which in the end conned the coaches he could play tighthead for longer than it should have.

I hope they have been working hard on Lou Reed, his fitness levels weren't that impressive at times last season. I wonder whether he is there to add some weight behind the front row to compensate a lighter front row?

McCusker being there is no surprise, he is Mr Average. And I would have had Navidi at 7 to balance as King doesn't play there often.

As for the backs, well numbers 11-15, I will just wait and see now. They have their chance, perhaps one will come out as "find of the tour". Although I'm skeptical, especially of Spratt based on regional performances.

On a different but related note. I saw the 2001 backline we took to Japan recently and it had 9. Cooper/Peel, 10 Jones, 11 Shane, 13 Thomas, 14 Jones/Shanklin, 15 Morgan, with Henson on the bench.

With the exception of Alfie, all of those had less than 10 caps at the time and none were first choice. Peel, Shanklin and Henson made their debuts. Little did we know that all of these players would go onto displace the Lions on the tour (Jenkins, Taylor, James or the retired Howley, Gibbs) and would all go onto shine as part of an impressive Grand Slam winning backline and would flourish with successful careers. Jamie Robinson also made his debut there.

The odd one out of that backline was Adrian Durston, he was the only one who would would be just a 2 cap player and was never seen again. Interesting article on it here (http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/22533330).
 
Yep, I was at that match in Canada four years ago. We handled their scrum but were **** in every other aspect. A young player named Dan Biggar kicked everything (Biggar+Robinson made every kick in those two test). Also saw the debut of Jonathan Davies, while a flanker named Warburton came off the bench a week later. Mitchell was denied what I certainly thought was a try with his first touch. I think the backline could be decent, Robinson looked to be improving at some times this season, while Owen Williams looked good in a poor Blues side.

The back five of the pack is simply uninspiring. King is good, and Coombs is a workhorse, but not a backrow. I wanted to see Shingler play, as he has skill and pace in spades.
 
Anyone think that picking 4 players who can play lock is a deliberate attempt to try work out who should bench for AWJ/Evans? Let's face it, there's probably enough depth in Lydiate/Ryan Jones/Tipuric/Warburton/Faletau for now, and not many looking like they'll break that group open, so why not?

Don't get why McCusker's included and not Shingler though...
 
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