A Political Thread pt. 2

[ncurd]

Lab Lib coalition on the cards?

Libs will never make up enough ground on the other two to be proper contenders but if they get a few, labour get a few more, then they could realistically challenge - no one would be particularly enthused about it but literally anything is better than the current shower

The enemy of my enemy etc

I don't think the LD's will enter a formal coalition and there are rules against not standing now apparently which is why the other parties had to put up a candidate. But Lab didn't try here deliberately only wheeling out Rayner at the 11th hour to pretend they were trying.

What we could see is similar to 96 where Lab might have candidate but more general agreement to not kick each other down all Wimbledon and Kensington last time out.

Still maintain in 2010 we'd of had a Lib/Lab coalition over the one we did get if they could of formed majority with just the two of them. Its what most LD voters and members would prefer.

It's certainly looking possible last time an election was one with this kind of swing was LD veating the Tories in Christchurch 93.

Considering the area was 60% leave as well l.

 

[Reiser99]

Hopefully will **** up the Lab idiots who say you must always go by previous election results as a method to tactocal.coting. Most pro activists know their constituencies very well so whilst Lab a very solid 10% of the vote clearly but they struggle to get larger than that.

Yeah analysis was done in the last election and a significant number of Lib Dem voters said the would vote Conservative if Lib Dems pulled out. 9n top others just won't vote for either. Assuming all votes will go Lab or Lib Dem if the other pulls is fanciful. Tactical voting works in marginal seats. You're not going to take a say seat doing it.

Lab Lib coalition on the cards?

Libs will never make up enough ground on the other two to be proper contenders but if they get a few, labour get a few more, then they could realistically challenge - no one would be particularly enthused about it but literally anything is better than the current shower

The enemy of my enemy etc

Tbh I think this is more a protest of Johnson and the current scandals than a true swing. I can easily see the seat going blue again at the next election with a new leader and some good press. FFTP still heavily favours Conservatives and I can see the left wing parties continue to fracture the vote and Conservatives holding seats with smaller percentages.

Still I could and hope I'm wrong and that this is the start of a trend.

 

[McTallshort]

Lab Lib coalition on the cards?

Libs will never make up enough ground on the other two to be proper contenders but if they get a few, labour get a few more, then they could realistically challenge - no one would be particularly enthused about it but literally anything is better than the current shower

The enemy of my enemy etc

Didn't Tony Blair have a similar idea when he won his first election? Was going to offer Paddy Ashdown an alliance of sorts that he believed would finish the Tories for a generation

 

[ncurd]

Didn't Tony Blair have a similar idea when he won his first election? Was going to offer Paddy Ashdown an alliance of sorts that he believed would finish the Tories for a generation

Pretty much they also slightly coordinated their campaigns to not stuff up each other targets. Blair ended up winning by a stupid amount and didnt need LD support killing any chance.

Tbh I think this is more a protest of Johnson and the current scandals than a true swing. I can easily see the seat going blue again at the next election with a new leader and some good press. FFTP still heavily favours Conservatives and I can see the left wing parties continue to fracture the vote and Conservatives holding seats with smaller percentages.

Still I could and hope I'm wrong and that this is the start of a trend.

Definitely a protest vote against a government that is outright awful. Have to remember though Cameron was essentially Tory-Lite and he only managed a majority once. May completely disintegrated once her policies were put to the electorate and lost a majority from a commanding position. And a populist like Johnson will struggle to fool a nation again so soon.

I think we'll end up Tory again but theyll struggle to govern l effectively without a strong majority.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Definitely just a protest vote and can see people immediately swinging right back to them if Johnsons is replaced as they have their usual amnesia and forget it's still the same party.

 

[ncurd]

Pretty good summation of things

 

[Which Tyler]

It's a huge swing, and as ever, voting is down for a byelection versus general; but it's worth noting that the leftish vote (Lab + LD + Green) still saw a frank increase in numbers compared to the the GE19 (by about 20%), despite overall votes dropping.

But yes, of course it's a protest vote, and will almost certainly return to blue at a GE with a new leader - but it's still one hell of an indication of the dissatisfaction in the country

 

[ncurd]

Quite weirdly whilst I firmly believe the country needs rid of Johnson sharpish you do have to wonder if Lab/LD/Green would prefer him to remain for 3 years. I just don't think the country can take 3 more years of his style of governing.

 

[Which Tyler]

 

[ncurd]

So many terrible Starmer hot takes this morning, you know I think he could actually win an actual winnable seat and people would still be calling for him to go.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

North Shropshire by-election: Has Boris Johnson lost his winning touch?

Just two years after a landslide general election victory, the PM suffers a big loss in a Tory heartland.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[ncurd]

North Shropshire by-election: Has Boris Johnson lost his winning touch?

Just two years after a landslide general election victory, the PM suffers a big loss in a Tory heartland.

www.bbc.co.uk

I mean even that article is kinda weird on Labour they dig the axe in but dies point out Starmer didn't visit North Shropshire once during the campaign. That's not a party actually trying in a by-election and anyone thinking otherwise is mad.

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

I mean even that article is kinda weird on Labour they dig the axe in but dies point out Starmer didn't visit North Shropshire once during the campaign. That's not a party actually trying in a by-election and anyone thinking otherwise is mad.

Says a lot about the party IMO that they can have probably the biggest anti-tory sentiment in almost a decade on their side and still not back themselves to win a by election.

The attitude of "anyone but the tories" isn't one which you can form a Government on.


On a side note, this is probably the best long term outcome for the Tories here - it spurs on the need for change at the top and makes very clear that Bojo cannot take them into the next election

 

[ncurd]

Says a lot about the party IMO that they can have probably the biggest anti-tory sentiment in almost a decade on their side and still not back themselves to win a by election.

The attitude of "anyone but the tories" isn't one which you can form a Government on.

No point in spending resources on winning you can't win but someone else can beat your main opponent. Parties do it all the time they just kinda lost the plot under Corbyn trying to win everything. Starmer needs to look for places he can win rather than trying to win the ones he can't. Most of that will be winning the North/Midlands back Hartlepool was a bad example it had been lost for decades and demise of UKIP/BXP creates an issue on old split vote places. Its an uphil struggle no doubt.

As to long term, Tories haven't had a leader as popular as Johnson at his peak since the 80's. I do wonder if anyone they can pick can actually manage that.

 

[ncurd]

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Have we ever had 4 leaders of the same party in government back to back? I can't think of a party that has engaged in this level of musical chairs among their leadership whilst in power and still tried to claim to be a strong, unifying vision.

 

[ncurd]

Have we ever had 4 leaders of the same party in government back to back? I can't think of a party that has engaged in this level of musical chairs among their leadership whilst in power and still tried to claim to be a strong, unifying vision.

Technically its different governments( we've had technically 6 and this would be our 7th), but in terms of no party change

List of prime ministers of the United Kingdom - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Whig's twice in early days once with 6PM's and 10 governments.
Tory's for 23 years 1807-1830, 6 PM's and 6 governments.

Since 1832 and Great Reform Act,
Conservatives did it 1951 to 1964 Churchill, Eden, Macmillan, Douglas-Home but that was only 5 governments in total.


Just noted if Johnson doesn't last until 5th August he'd be in even less time than May was.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

 

[ncurd]

Been a week for marking ones own homework

 

[Ragey Erasmus]