A Political Thread pt. 2

[ncurd]

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Definite step up in the extent of Ukranian successes. What is new this time is they are winning on multiple fronts simultaneously despite lower manpower. 2x heavily defended fronts in Kherson, 1x very broad front in Kharkiv, 1x front in Luhansk and even minor success heading southwards on Donetsk front to potentially jeopardise the Russian offensive at Bakhmut.

Basically, they are making a believer out of me in terms of what is achievable. The only thing they need to be able to show now is the ability to take a major city without the advantage of complete encirclement (as they had at Izium). If they can pull that off (say Kherson or Lysychansk) then I'd stop making them underdogs in a conventional war.

I don't know how reliable Met Office forecasts are for Ukraine but Kherson and Luhansk look mild and dry for the coming week so the weather hopefully won't become decisive. I think they are right to take possible risks and push the boat out before winter to take action before the Russian conscripts get any sort of opportunity for training.

 

[General Melchett]

I just had a thought and it builds on previous theories. Is this all still a plot by Johnson's supporters to bring him back. My main evidence is Nadine Dorries calling for an election. It may just be her being her usual thick self, but an election now would surely be suicidal for the Tories. Also she was a Truss supporter and it seems very quick to turn on her. Did Johnson's supporters help get Truss elected as they knew how bad she'd be and that she wouldn't last long?

Now, suppose Truss did call an election and there was a huge swing giving labour a majority or at least the most seats, then Truss would surely resign. This would then allow Johnson to run in the contest to be leader.

Ok, so why an election and not just get rid of Truss. Well Johnson, while popular with Tory members, is still toxic with the public and it would likely only delay an defeat at the next election unless something radically changed at which point he would have to resign, if he replaced just replaved Truss now as PM. However, if it comes after an election he has 5 years as opposition leader to do his usual populist act, while Labour tries into fix the mess they are left with, and rebuild his popularity. On top he could be elected leader by reminding everyone that he won a huge majority and so can do it again.

Thoughts?

I'm not convinced Johnson has the work ethic or eye for detail to be leader of the opposition for five years. He is a lazy b'stard after all (Anyone remember Alan B'Stard?). I can imagine him letting someone else doing the hard yards and being opposition leader for say four years before he launches a coup and tries to take over a year out from the next election. Maybe that's why they want Labour to inherit an even bigger mess which might enhance the Tories chances of regaining power in 2029. It really wouldn't surprise me if he is planning some sort of comeback in a few years time however.

Just watched Truss' speech at the conference. The awkward silence in between her punchlines and the audience clapping is pure cringe.

 

[ncurd]

 

[ncurd]

 

[Which Tyler]

Definite step up in the extent of Ukranian successes. What is new this time is they are winning on multiple fronts simultaneously despite lower manpower. 2x heavily defended fronts in Kherson, 1x very broad front in Kharkiv, 1x front in Luhansk and even minor success heading southwards on Donetsk front to potentially jeopardise the Russian offensive at Bakhmut.

Basically, they are making a believer out of me in terms of what is achievable. The only thing they need to be able to show now is the ability to take a major city without the advantage of complete encirclement (as they had at Izium). If they can pull that off (say Kherson or Lysychansk) then I'd stop making them underdogs in a conventional war.

I don't know how reliable Met Office forecasts are for Ukraine but Kherson and Luhansk look mild and dry for the coming week so the weather hopefully won't become decisive. I think they are right to take possible risks and push the boat out before winter to take action before the Russian conscripts get any sort of opportunity for training.

Lower manpower?
Where are you getting that from?

They have more soldiers in the field, more reserves, and are generally getting a 6:1* outnumbering when they're breeching Russian lines.

Equally, why the need to take a city without complete encirclement? Taking the city is what's important - taking it intelligently is surely better than taking it stupidly - why would you want them to do it stupidly? They haven't been "underdogs in a conventional war" for about 3 months now.


*At least, as that's assuming the Russian units are at more-or-less full strength, which they never are.

 

[Reiser99]

Just watched Truss' speech at the conference. The awkward silence in between her punchlines and the audience clapping is pure cringe.

Has she got her pause face out yet?

 

[Gavin]

 

[General Melchett]

What a ridiculously stupid thing to say. The Rwanda flights are meant to act as a deterrent and here she is claiming she would take pleasure out of seeing a photo of a flight taking off on the front of the Torygraph.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Lower manpower? Where are you getting that from? They have more soldiers in the field, more reserves, and are generally getting a 6:1* outnumbering when they're breeching Russian lines. Equally, why the need to take a city without complete encirclement? Taking the city is what's important - taking it intelligently is surely better than taking it stupidly - why would you want them to do it stupidly? They haven't been "underdogs in a conventional war" for about 3 months now. *At least, as that's assuming the Russian units are at more-or-less full strength, which they never are.

Taking a city without complete encirclement will be a military necessity unless Russian forces lose all discipline and throw themselves into the Black Sea. Kherson being on a riverbank means complete encircelment is actually a geographic impossibility. Complete encirclement of Lysychansk would entail the capture of neighbouring Seveirodonetsk first (a city further from the front lines and on lower ground and therefore unlikely to fall first).

In terms of total manpower I again disagree. Russia has already added over 200k to their army in the past fortnight or so. This is almost half of the entire Ukrainian contingent of 500k. Russia has also been pressganging menfolk in their occupied territories (including from day 1) resulting in very large but unquantified numbers of 'troops' in these militias.

Of course Ukraine has superior numbers concentrated in areas they focus an attack on, but that is irrelevant in calculating total overall military numbers. Of course not every troop in either army is on the frontline and we don't know what the casualties are for either side but overall I see no evidence that Ukraine has superior numbers of troops and the suggestion that 3 months ago Ukraine was not an underdog against the entire Russian military is fanciful at best. They didnt even launch their counterattack until 2 months ago.

Russia vs Ukraine military comparison 2024 | Statista

Ukraine's military capabilities were lower than Russia's for most indicators. For example, Ukraine's Army had 420,000 less active soldiers than Russia's.

www.statista.com

 

[Which Tyler]

That's an odd take.
Ukraine can absolutely encircle Kherson - there;'s only 1 route across the Dnipro at the moment; if Ukraine control that route, then Kherson is encircled - even if that encirclement is all sat 20km away from the city itself - but obviously, the closer they sit (especially anti-aircraft batteries) then the tighter the noose.

It's not March anymore; and Russia is not, and cannot throw its entire military at Ukraine - unlike Ukraine, who not only can throw their entire military might at Russia, but have massively increased their military might since the invasion started - both in terms of personnel and equipment.

Ukraine ceased to be the underdog, when they had (more or less) halted Russian advances, started getting new recruits out the other end of training, and started getting serious equipment from their allies - AKA, about 3 months ago. Nothing to do with when they started counter attacking, everything to do with when they ceased to be the underdog.

 

[Al Bangor]

Ukraine liberating Lyman as Russians retreat to avoid being encircled.

I really admire the Ukrainian military. They're very courageous and determined.

 

[ncurd]

...yay

 

[Which Tyler]

...yay

Is Banon still involved in Conservative guidance?


Elsewhere:

Update for October 4-5 — Ukraine Daily Update

In the past 48 hours, Ukraine has prepared for a new offensive in Luhansk oblast and mounted a highly successful offensive in Kherson. Meanwhile, Russia had several costly failed attacks in Donbas and launched terrorist attacks on several Ukrainian cities.

www.ukrdailyupdate.com

In the past 48 hours, Ukraine has prepared for a new offensive in Luhansk oblast and mounted a highly successful offensive in Kherson. Meanwhile, Russia had several costly failed attacks in Donbas and launched terrorist attacks on several Ukrainian cities.
If you would like to view the map: map.ukrdailyupdate.com
...
article continues

Or the tweet equivalence


Alternative views:

Invasion Day 224 – Summary

The summary of the 224th day of Russian invasion to Ukraine, as of 22:00 – 5th October 2022 (Kyiv time). Day summary: Ukrainian forces maintain steady progress and liberated another bunch of…

militaryland.net

 

[Which Tyler]

Ukraine liberating Lyman as Russians retreat to avoid being encircled.

They did a pretty poor job then:

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Nurses looking to go on strike for the first time ever... Add that as another thing the Tories claimed would happen under a Labour government. If there isn't an early election, there could be riots before long. The Tories have driven this country into the ground and are now shamelessly enriching their already rich friends as their last act in power, they are absolute scum.

 

[Amiga500]

Nurses looking to go on strike for the first time ever... Add that as another thing the Tories claimed would happen under a Labour government. If there isn't an early election, there could be riots before long. The Tories have driven this country into the ground and are now shamelessly enriching their already rich friends as their last act in power, they are absolute scum.

Keep quiet peasant and just worry about cleaning my shoes properly.
- The thoughts of the average tory party member when being told of the cost of living problems most face

 

[Welsh Exile]

Nurses looking to go on strike for the first time ever... Add that as another thing the Tories claimed would happen under a Labour government. If there isn't an early election, there could be riots before long. The Tories have driven this country into the ground and are now shamelessly enriching their already rich friends as their last act in power, they are absolute scum.

As far as the NHS goes it's hard to not think that this has been their plan. Underfund it, run it into the ground and then say, look it's not fit for purpose we'll need an insurance based system moving forward.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

As far as the NHS goes it's hard to not think that this has been their plan. Underfund it, run it into the ground and then say, look it's not fit for purpose we'll need an insurance based system moving forward.

Can the NHS learn from Germany’s health system?

Despite public support for the NHS, satisfaction levels have fallen, raising thoughts of reform.

www.bbc.com

Following or adapting the German system might not be such a bad idea.

The issue is all healthcare systems around the world are chasing staff.

 

[Welsh Exile]

Can the NHS learn from Germany’s health system?

Despite public support for the NHS, satisfaction levels have fallen, raising thoughts of reform.

www.bbc.com

Following or adapting the German system might not be such a bad idea.

The issue is all healthcare systems around the world are chasing staff.

There are worse systems but I'd rather a properly funded and supported NHS by a government that cares about it. Not by a government that pretends to care about it but in reality is fundamentally opposed to it on an ideological level.