A Political Thread pt. 2

[Which Tyler]

I think there some seats where it really doesn't matter. But this is definitely one of those to do proper research based on 1997, 2010 & 2015 and see what was closest.

Once announced, I expect there to also be information out there for "most likely to unseat a tory" or vote swapping with someone in another area, where if you want Lib Dem, and they want labour, but you're constituency is more likely to go labour and there's to go Lib Dem, then you agree to vote for each other's party.
There's a lot more appetite out there for "Not Conservative" than there seems to be for any of the alternatives

 

[Bada-Bing!]

See so many people leaving the labour party - and I don't mean resigning their membership, but refusing to even hold their noses and vote labour if it's the best way to keep a tory out of their local seat.
The left absolutely loves to cut its nose off to spite its face!

Splitters!

The Labour party is in my blood. Here’s why I’ve just cancelled my membership | Owen Jones

My ancestors could always point to Labour policies that transformed ordinary lives. I cannot say the same, says Guardian columnist Owen Jones

www.theguardian.com

 

[Al Bangor]

Happiness of the younger, the older, and those in between

The World Happiness Report is a partnership of Gallup, the Oxford Wellbeing Research Centre, the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network, and the WHR’s Editorial Board. The report is produced under the editorial control of the WHR Editorial Board. From 2024, the World Happiness Report...

worldhappiness.report

 

[TRF_Olyy]

I live in a Tory stronghold and Labour has next to zero chance of getting elected. They couldn't even do it in 1997. I am going to look more closely at their manifesto this year though. It's going to be between them, Lib Dems or Greens who are going to get my vote.

I get a Tory canvasser on my doorstep I'll tell them exactly why I won't be voting for them.

Fabricant is my MP - really interested to see what happens at the next election with him, it's such a Tory stronghold his closest election win was his first and he still got 34% more of the votes than the next nearest

I imagine he'll retain/be one of the few remaining Tories

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Fabricant is my MP - really interested to see what happens at the next election with him, it's such a Tory stronghold his closest election win was his first and he still got 34% more of the votes than the next nearest

I imagine he'll retain/be one of the few remaining Tories

I have a certain deputy PM who is my MP. So very, very safe indeed for the Tories. 21k majority and over 60% of vote in 2019. Also very Jewish/elderly area who won't be voting for Labour, regardless of Starmer. Although last local election did kick off 3 Tory councillors for Lib Dems on a local issue.

Been in correspondence with him, including ones during Covid - usual BS including the response on Cummings testing his eyesight driving to Bernard castle, but last one on lack of cycling infrastructure and police not enforcing the HW properly he just fobbed off onto his PA to reply to me and that it was a county council issue. Wasn't best pleased.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

I've got Andrew Mitchell as mine, another likely survivor in a very safe seat...

 

[ncurd]

Once announced, I expect there to also be information out there for "most likely to unseat a tory" or vote swapping with someone in another area, where if you want Lib Dem, and they want labour, but you're constituency is more likely to go labour and there's to go Lib Dem, then you agree to vote for each other's party.
There's a lot more appetite out there for "Not Conservative" than there seems to be for any of the alternatives

I was just looking at our area on elections amps UK says dear old Robertson will only get 31.1% of the vote but will win by virtue of no unity candidate and his majority would be 3%

Really shows the importance of getting it right.

 

[Which Tyler]

Would be delightful to see him get less than 50%; and infuriating if he dips that low and there's STILL no-one to take the seat off of him.

Historically, Lib Dem seems the most likely - though they absolutely collapsed around here after the coalition (but did get an uptick in 2019 IIRC). I really do hope that some sort of agreement can be reached between them and Labour here (and Hegenbarth seems pretty popular as a councillor).

 

[ncurd]

Would be delightful to see him get less than 50%; and infuriating if he dips that low and there's STILL no-one to take the seat off of him.

Historically, Lib Dem seems the most likely - though they absolutely collapsed around here after the coalition (but did get an uptick in 2019 IIRC). I really do hope that some sort of agreement can be reached between them and Labour here (and Hegenbarth seems pretty popular as a councillor).

Back when I was a Lib Dem I spent time with Hegenbarth (and Max Wilkinson) and he's been thinking about targeting the seat properly since 2017 as he in Cheltenham borough at the time, so moving into the constituency and building a platform and reputation (the Paddy Ashdown method). He's a good guy as well, we agreed on a fair of stuff back then so I'd be happy to back him. My issue with the Lib Dems is no longer really get what they stand for in terms of big policy.

But also now I'm a Labor member so should technically vote for them regardless but GTTO is more important.

 

[Gavin]

Ireland's designation of the UK as a "safe third country" to which asylum seekers can be returned for processing is unlawful as a matter of EU law, the High Court has ruled.

In a significant decision on Friday, Ms Justice Siobhán Phelan held that Minister for Justice Helen McEntee exceeded her powers by designating the UK a safe third country in December 2020, in response to the UK's exit from the EU.

High Court rules designation of UK as 'safe third country' unlawful

It follows actions that allege the designation of the UK as a safe third country is unlawful due to risks arising from potential onward transfer to Rwanda

www.irishexaminer.com

 

[Al Bangor]

Islamic State group claims responsibility for Moscow mass shooting that left dozens dead. Here's what we know.

Several gunmen opened fire at a popular concert hall on the outskirts of Moscow, Russian state news agencies reported Friday.

www.yahoo.com

 

[Al Bangor]

 

[Al Bangor]

 

[General Melchett]

Wouldn't be surprised if Putin tries to push the narrative that ISIS were supported by Ukraine in order to justify a brutal response. Uncanny that this happens days after he gets re-elected.

 

[McTallshort]

Wouldn't be surprised if Putin tries to push the narrative that ISIS were supported by Ukraine in order to justify a brutal response. Uncanny that this happens days after he gets re-elected.

Putin is meant to represent strength, security and stability and in this and the recent border incursions near Belograd that has been shattered.

ISIS has real beef with Russia after Syria and various interactions with Wagner in Africa. I'm surprised it's not happened sooner.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Caucasus region is a big recruiting ground for ISIS (and islamic extremism in general), Russian special forces took out a cell in Ingushetia last week

 

[die_mole]

Wouldn't be surprised if Putin tries to push the narrative that ISIS were supported by Ukraine in order to justify a brutal response. Uncanny that this happens days after he gets re-elected.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-m...all-injuries-fe7db5bb4ad4df17b6cbd04a3250faa1
. . . and he has

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Moscow attack: Did Russia ignore US 'extremist' attacks warning?

The attack on a concert hall in Moscow raises difficult questions for Putin at a time of global mistrust.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[McTallshort]

Moscow attack: Did Russia ignore US 'extremist' attacks warning?

The attack on a concert hall in Moscow raises difficult questions for Putin at a time of global mistrust.

www.bbc.co.uk

Remember reading about Stalin ignoring British intelligence about Germany invading in 1941. Apparently it was a Western ruse and should be ignored then June came along and the Soviet Union experienced its most destructive catastrophe. All because the Russians where too proud to take advice

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Remember reading about Stalin ignoring British intelligence about Germany invading in 1941. Apparently it was a Western ruse and should be ignored then June came along and the Soviet Union experienced its most destructive catastrophe. All because the Russians where too proud to take advice

More like too paranoid.