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ragerancher

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They're asset stripping the country
If only the Tories had a history of doing this and people had had some warning! If only...

I just really hope for my own sanity Labour don't royally **** it up again by starting a party civil war 1 year out of an election.
 

ncurd

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If only the Tories had a history of doing this and people had had some warning! If only...

I just really hope for my own sanity Labour don't royally **** it up again by starting a party civil war 1 year out of an election.
They're trying now...
 

The_Blindside

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Only polls but interesting to see current state of play in those swing states. 2-3% Margin for error? So all to play for still. Good to see Biden has a biggish lead in Pennsylvania and Florida is a must win, but only 4.6% lead there. But they are only polls, and the only one that counts is held on November 3rd. And of course those states that have allowed early mail in ballots.
 
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TRF_heineken

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Only polls but interesting to see current state of play in those swing states. 2-3% Margin for error? So all to play for still. Good to see Biden has a biggish lead in Pennsylvania and Florida is a must win, but only 4.6% lead there. But they are only polls, and the only one that counts is held on November 3rd. And of course those states that have allowed early mail in ballots.
But Florida has a nasty tendency to not reflect what the polls said. and there has been so many issues in Florida when it came to voting too. A lot can still happen...
 

ncurd

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I was using this site 4 years ago it predicted a Hillary win (which was hardly a outlier for anyone using a polling model) but did think things would be close.



Essentially it's similar to last time except Biden's polling generally is far better than Clinton's at this stage in those crucial states that means all the the just wins Trump had last time are harder to obtain. Not saying it's not doable but last time was a surprising victory and he's have to again pretty much win all the 50/50 contests.

Wouldn't worry too much about Florida but rust belt states Trump won Michigan (0.23% win margin) Penselvannia (0.72%) Winconssin (0.77) and Clinton won New Hampshire (0.37%). If Biden is looking healthier there it's probably bad for Trump overall.
 

The_Blindside

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I think it’s accepted by analysts in USA that Trump can’t win without Florida.

but yes, they are only polls and average of about 5 in each of those swing states. Those grey areas in the pit charts in 270towin show there voters still undecided. BBC video I posted up gives a broad number of c.5.5m in those crucial swing states. Last time 107,000 decided the election in the rust belt swing states.
 

ncurd

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I think it’s accepted by analysts in USA that Trump can’t win without Florida.
Pretty much same for Texas (less likely) I was looking at more of a Biden perspective who doesn't need to win Florida. Infact it was part of Clinton's failing strategy and not visiting the rust belt she put all her eggs in the Florida basket.

Although TBF not many people saw how Trump would win and it was a shock result.
 

The_Blindside

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Trump would call it fake because it’s CNN but still.
 

ncurd

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Just seen the Rethink, Reskill, Reboot adverts f'ing disgusting stuff. On one hand it belittles jobs people already do whilst also pretending 'Cyber' and its job set is simple as reskilling and doesn't take years to learn and get good at.
 

Gavin

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"Thanks PM"

dick grayson film GIF
 

ragerancher

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Wow would you look at that, Tories lying yet again. To any Brexiters and Tory voters, you enjoying how everything you were told is turning out to be a pack of lies or do you really not care as long as you think you are owning the libs?

TBH for me this has gone beyond reasonable discourse, call this whole thing what it is, a ******* disgrace and the people of this country should be ******* ashamed of themselves. You were TOLD over and over and over and ******* over again but would you listen? Nope. Well congratulations, the government now has a stonking great majority and has no desire whatsoever to keep any of their promises, literally nothing about Brexit has turned out how the Brexiters said it would, none of the Tory campaign promises have been kept (beyond get Brexit done whatever the cost) and now the whole country is being sold down the river all because of petty ******* nationalism. I'm sick of it. The lies, the corruption, the complete lack of integrity, the deaths, the incompetence. How the **** are you Conservatives and Brexiters ok with this!?
 

TRF_Olyy

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Insane the stories of people waiting 8+hrs in a queue to vote in America,

In all my years of voting the only time I've ever had to queue was for the Brexit vote, and that's just because my polling station is next to a school, and I accidentally went just before school kicking out time so all the parents had timed their votes to coincide - even then I was in and out in 10minutes tops.

If I knew I had to stand in a queue for an entire working day I don't think there's any chance I'd do it, tbh.
 

Which Tyler

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It's a method of vote suppression:

Few places where you cast your ballot.
Inaccessible by public transport.
Vote on a working day.
And takes hours to do so.
Oh yes, and you need the right form of ID.

Not to mention random purges of the electoral roll, and gerrymandering of district lines.
Basically, whatever they can do to make it as hard as possible for those of lower socio-economic status to vote
 
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ragerancher

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It's a method of vote suppression:

Few places where you cast your ballot.
Inaccessible by public transport.
Vote on a working day.
And takes hours to do so.
Oh yes, and you need the right form of ID.

Not to mention random purges of the electoral roll, and gerrymandering of authority lines.
Basically, whatever they can do to make it as hard as possible for those of lower socio-economic status to vote

It is shocking actually how the "leader of the free world" has such a corrupted electoral system. At the absolute least the parties in power should not be able to draw their own districts. Some US districts are absolutely ridiculous. I saw an interesting video the other day where they suggested that districting should be done primarily by a computer and then sanity checked by an independent body (not that any "independent" body really is). When they modelled it, it was found to give a much more representative outcome.

I've had a queue to vote but never more than 5-10 minutes. There really is no excuse for it, it is voter suppression plain and simple. Also a fan of voting days being a mandatory holiday in any democracy, or at the very least having the right to take half the day off if you are in a job that must be running that day.
 
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