All Blacks final World Cup squad?

[nickdnz]

Yeah I understand all that and in theory it works well but when put to practice it does not always work well. SBW would be a good example with a really high tackle rate, but he doesn't bring much else to the table. Stats can obscure an impact a player has on the game, they might not have as many line breaks for example, but they might make a game breaking decision that resulted in a try in another area that another stronger line breaker would not have made. Conrad Smith is a good example here.

When you put the stats up between Kirindrani and Conrad Smith, Kirindrani looks the far superior centre and player, but we all know that's not the case.

But I can use tackle stats to argue Sonny Bill Williams is a more accurate tackler than another player, over the period of a series.

"Best" is of course a relative term. Because statistics compiled in rugby tend to be pretty limited, you can only try and use the limited picture they provide to demonstrate an aspect of one players game.

In regards to Conrad Smith vs Tevita Kurindrani - I think you would be surprised. Again taking the stats of those two players (based on Super Rugby):

Conrad - Kurindrani
Minutes played: 1,240 - 1,157
Tries: 3 - 3
Carries: 111-104
Metres: 506-400
Clean Breaks: 10-12
Defenders Beaten: 21-29
Offloads: 12-9
Assists: 1-1
Passes: 118-27
Openplay kicks: 8-1

Tackles: 117-104
Tackle Percentage: 88.6 - 79.4
Turnovers Conceded: 8-9

So as you can tell looking at these stats over the space of a season - what would appear instinctive (Kurindrani would dominate in aspects such as ball carrying / metres) is not necessary the case. If I was to dissect these statistics I would argue based on these Conrad Smith is the more accurate defender, and has a better passing game. Based on your perception I would argue he has a very underrated running game.

Of course it doesn't tell you who is the better decision maker, who provides better on-field leadership - and you have to take into account performances are often relative to the makeup and structures of the team. Unfortunately for these things you either have to go with anecdotal evidence or better yet - match footage to demonstrate a point. What I hope this has demonstrated however - is that what appears intuitive isn't necessary fact. Yes, I agree once again that they are a crude measure of a players attribute: but it is better than nothing.

 

[CaliRa1]

Points win games not stats
The team with the most points wins
These stats amount to nothing in W-L-D if they don't/can't convert
Doesn't necessarily mean that they're a more/less superior player at the position
It's a game of 15(23) v 15(23)
All 15(23) working in harmony=Victory

 

[Mcfadden]

They're a much more effective tool than letting your lips motor and seeing how much rubbish spews out of them.

 

[nickdnz]

Points win games not stats
The team with the most points wins
These stats amount to nothing in W-L-D if they don't/can't convert
Doesn't necessarily mean that they're a more/less superior player at the position
It's a game of 15(23) v 15(23)
All 15(23) working in harmony=Victory

Brilliant, good point.

I assumed stats were collated after the game and put through some form of algorithm to work out who won. I've been doing this all wrong. So it's the team that converts opportunities into the most points over a period of 80 minutes?

X = mind blown

 

[Kiwi_]

I was thinking more of over the seasons, than this season where the Hurricanes really opened teams up. Have you got Conrad and Kirindrani's stats from the previous few seasons?

 

[CaliRa1]

You know what stats I would like to see? The stats on our weaknesses… What/Who is the catalyst that leads to everything going wrong? What are options to get out of this situation? Have you got stats for those?

 

[Kiwi_]

An injury stat would be a useful one, how many bloody times do our first 5s get injured!

 

[Jack Reacher]

Being an All Blacks supporter we always tend to be so obsessed about 'back up' players. Yes, injuries occur but not to extent that 90% of these posts seem to be paranoid over. 3 of the first four games it won't really matter who we pick (I could play 80 minutes and we'd still beat Namibia!). The last 3 games (touching wood) will be the preferred 15 and only if the matches are tight will it really matter who the third lock is or second fullback is - did Anthony Boric contribute much last time, what about Jimmy Cowen, Zac Guilford or Adam Thompson?
Basically we have the best 15 in the world and should win this tournament without too many headaches.

 

[CaliRa1]

Being an All Blacks supporter we always tend to be so obsessed about 'back up' players. Yes, injuries occur but not to extent that 90% of these posts seem to be paranoid over. 3 of the first four games it won't really matter who we pick (I could play 80 minutes and we'd still beat Namibia!). The last 3 games (touching wood) will be the preferred 15 and only if the matches are tight will it really matter who the third lock is or second fullback is - did Anthony Boric contribute much last time, what about Jimmy Cowen, Zac Guilford or Adam Thompson?
Basically we have the best 15 in the world and should win this tournament without too many headaches.

RWC 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 all given the same grade pretty much

 

[Mcfadden]

???

At the last World Cup we had Slade, Carter, Cruden and Muliaina get injured. What's paranoid about that? It helps to be prepared, and failing to do so will be at our peril. It's good to have a conversation about who can cover what, otherwise the alternative is when injuries hit we put players where they stick out like a sore thumb.

 

[Jack Reacher]

My point was simply that there was too much emphasis on the topic of backups in this thread (I know thats the point before anyone jumps on that). Piutau or Naholo seems to be the biggest discussion and realistically the match day replacements will be Perenara, Barrett and Fekitoa so its going to take an injury before one of them even makes the bench.

 

[Shaggy]

My point was simply that there was too much emphasis on the topic of backups in this thread (I know thats the point before anyone jumps on that). Piutau or Naholo seems to be the biggest discussion and realistically the match day replacements will be Perenara, Barrett and Fekitoa so its going to take an injury before one of them even makes the bench.

You do realise that the scheduling of the games makes it impossible to play your preferred starting 15/23 for every single game, right?

I'm not totally sure how you can predict who's going to start any given match, let alone predict who the the "realistic" replacement backs are.

Given that there's only 31 spots in the squad, is it that surprising that there's discussion about Naholo's inclusion and dynamism in the one position he's played all season (right wing) Vs Piutau's proven abilities on the left and right wings, and at fullback?

You say there's too much emphasis on the topic of backups (I see it more as a discussion about lucky squad inclusions and those unlucky to miss out, myself) but you haven't really offered up anything else to talk about

 

[nzlizard]

Basically we have the best 15 in the world and should win this tournament without too many headaches.

It's so cute when they are this young and innocent.

 

[Kiwi_]

And there it is, the self-entitled arrogance of the NZ Rugby's fanbase. You do realize we were 2 points away from looking like the biggest tossers in Rugby history 4 years ago? Largely due to injury to key players. Carter, Barrett, Slade and a few other players are made of china, going prepared and having other players prepared for inevitable injuries is a big part of winning the RWC. Walking in with your attitude would again reap results of the past.

 

[nickdnz]

I was thinking more of over the seasons, than this season where the Hurricanes really opened teams up. Have you got Conrad and Kirindrani's stats from the previous few seasons?

Last years stats paint a similar picture:

Conrad - Kurindrani
Minutes played: 1,100-1,226 (so roughly 1 and a half more games for Kurindrani)
Tries: 3 - 5
Carries: 116-113
Metres: 454-459
Clean Breaks: 7-13
Defenders Beaten: 13-26
Offloads: 5-8
Assists: 1-0
Passes: 87-27
Openplay kicks: 7-2

Tackles: 118-105
Tackle Percentage: 90.8%-84%
Turnovers Conceded: 10-17

The best way to review these stats is to break it down to (per 80 minutes) - however I don't have time for that. But as we can see over the course of 2 seasons, Conrad has technically a more effective running game in terms of making more metres (were true for both seasons), is a more accurate tackler, and passes the ball a LOT more.

 

[Kiwi_]

Makes the right decision. Conrads tackling is pretty impressive. He's not the biggest guy on the park, but his technique and decision making in all areas of the game is unparalleled. Gotta love Snakey. Where are you getting your stats? Wouldn't mind have a look through some more.

 

[nickdnz]

Nz rugby herald is a good place for collective stats, espn scrum.com is good for single matches

 

[TobesHodges]

On Slade and Sopoaga, I would put a lot of money that we will see Sopoaga at the next World Cup, even maybe the #1 10 if no youngsters come outbid the woodwork in the next 4 years.
Really chuffed for Slade to get 1 more WC when you consider his full ankle break 3 years ago, most athletes don't come back after them, but for him to come back and IMO be better than he was is great stuff..

 

[austingtir]

On Slade and Sopoaga, I would put a lot of money that we will see Sopoaga at the next World Cup, even maybe the #1 10 if no youngsters come outbid the woodwork in the next 4 years.
Really chuffed for Slade to get 1 more WC when you consider his full ankle break 3 years ago, most athletes don't come back after them, but for him to come back and IMO be better than he was is great stuff..

Somehow I doubt that he'll be number one. I think he's going to be at his best from this year for about two or three years then he'll just tread water. Even Carter at this best was only really amazing for about 3 or 4 years circa 2005. He might really struggle to displace Cruden for the lions series for instance (even though iv never thought Cruden was that great and he's played his best rugby). I hope im wrong though....

Sopoaga for me is a player you need to base alot of your game around and the fact is the AB's imo have moved on from relying on one particular first five to carry the team. And thats a very good thing imo. Very astute by Hansen and Co. There simply wont be another Carter for a while imo.

So I dont think under this management Sopoaga will get a chance to develop to his true potential anyway. It will be interesting to see after this WC where rugby is headed at int level. I think its slowly moving in a player like lima's way but not soon enough.

 

[Mcfadden]

I think Sopoaga will be in the frame, but I also think his challenge will be consistency. He was great in South Africa. A lot of players were great in South Africa. Charles Piutau was man of the match and didn't get a spot in the WC. Fact remains Sopoaga can have some howlers at Super level, and I'd be concerned whether that might occur at All Blacks level.

Assuming Cruden doesn't pull a Jason Eaton and lose every part of what made him a special player pre-injury, then he'll be the incumbent over the next few years imo. I would like to see more of Sopoaga though, and I'd like them to increase his versatility.