Ok, third time of asking on this post...
I am not advocating a locked-down squad. It would give us the best chance of 2015 if we got it right, but there's too big a possibility of getting it wrong, and it creates problems after the tournament. Ideally, you get a team/squad that locks itself in for a long period of time, but that hasn't happened yet, and it has to happen naturally. Also, a look at the winning World Cup teams show that while there's a lot of familiarity and experience in there, there's also a lot of new faces who break in shortly before in great form.
But some people seem to be suggesting locking in Burns and Farrell to give them time to develop for 2015. And, if we are going to lock in, I'd rather lock in players who will be hitting what is a peak age and level of experience for most players than players who might have matured into fine internationals and done their apprenticeship by then. Which is Flood rather than Burns and Farrell.
And I think j'nuh is very much underrating how much experience - both in terms of individual experience, and in terms of working together - matters in rugby. I do not think it is the be-all and end-all, but it clearly makes a huge difference. I would say that Wales' appearance in the semi-final was both deserved and lucky. They beat the teams they had to beat playing good rugby - but does anyone seriously believe they would have got there if forced to play Australia in the quarter-final? The history books suggest it would have been very unlikely. I don't believe they would have, and the logical conclusion is that they were lucky not to play them. And as I don't believe they would have beaten New Zealand or South Africa either, the logical conclusion is they were never going to win it. J'nuh reckons the closeness of the semi-final and the final suggests the teams were on a very close level. I disagree. Those sort of matches are often very close, closer than strength on paper would indicate, it's dues to the nerves and intensity of the occasion, but if one side consistently wins the tight games and the other consistently loses them, then I do not see the teams as being close to each other. New Zealand consistently won the tight games around them. Wales have been consistently losing tight games to the Sanzar teams. And one of the reasons teams win or lose tight games is experience, which translates into the know-how and confidence to deal with the pressure and not make silly mistakes. Not everyone has to be experienced - the team NZ used in the final is probably one of the least experienced and cohesive teams that won it - but there has to be a core, which NZ had in spades. The Welsh did not have it, and I do not believe we are going to have it either.
I also have to challenge his representation of Johnson's World Cup, which I find severely flawed. I don't think we played the long game - if anything, we made an abrupt change at the last moment - and there were a lot of changes in the 18 months preceding. Cole, Youngs, Ashton and Foden all only really only came into the reckoning in the 2010 Six Nations. Palmer cam back in along with Lawes and Hape in the 2010 Summer tour. I'm not saying Hape was a good thing, but he wasn't a long standing thing. That's 5 members of the team who'd only really been part of it for 18 months tops - not including Lawes or Hape as they didn't really start many World Cup games. In the warm-ups there were more changes - Wigglesworth and Stevens were only reintroduced at this point, Tuilagi got his first games, and we switched from Flood to Wilkinson and Hartley to Thompson, changing two guys who'd been starting for pretty much the last year prior to that.
I would describe that as a pretty major list of changes, with the switch from Flood to Wilkinson also changing our style. It's not a particularly conservative list of changes either. Incidentally, to expand on the Tuilagi point, he was 19 and halfway through his first senior season during the 2011 Six Nations. If he'd made 20 senior appearances, it was barely. Criticizing England for not playing him at that point is somewhat absurd. He started 2 of the World Cup warm-up matches and every World Cup match. So, he had played before, Hape was replaced from the start of that tournament, and it is very difficult to say how he could have been played any earlier. So no, I don't think we had a settled team or style, and I think if we had stuck to our guns on that we'd have probably done better.
As for fly-half - we have plenty of prospects, but I'm not sanguine, as wrecking fly-half prospects seems to be what we do best. Take Cipriani. Olyy should be laughed out of the door for suggesting him at this stage. But one of he, Lamb and Geraghty should have been international class. Neither Wilkinson or Hodgson truly reached their potential - Wilkinson due to injury, Hodgson due to the shadow of Wilkinson and a crap pack. For all I rate him, I think Flood is about to fall into the same bracket as Hodgson, just with more injury problems. Farrell? The jury is out, some fine days and traits but plenty to improve on. Burns? Awaiting trial. I think he's a really good player, one of the few English fly-halves who can both create and control, but we don't know for sure yet. Was a bit too sloppy in Argentina for my liking. Slade, Ford, far too early to say really. Both have a lot of potential, a lot of things to work on, and really they need to nail down starting Premiership berths and show stuff there before we start talking about them imo. As for Botica, he would interest me, but his defence is appalling. Who knows, maybe Cips will make a come back... but to go back to the cohesion thing, it's not all on the pitch. We saw in 2011. Would Cipriani be welcome back in team England?
But - to ramble on - in terms of selections next Autumn, next spring, and so on, I hope there is no set goal in mind other than the result tomorrow and a better team next week. As things stand, we do not have a team with the experience or quality to win the World Cup and I do not think we have the prospects who will change that within the next two years. So I'd like to concentrate on winning games and forcing youngsters to work very hard on their game to break into the England set-up. Too many players came in partially formed and don't really seem to kick on. I would like to see them being forced to round out their games at their clubs. In this sense, I approve of the slowness with which Christian Wade is being introduced, and the extent to which Lancaster is forcing him to iron out weaknesses. Freddie Burns is another where this approach seems to be working.
I would also like us to look hard at style of play. This is not the first time Lancaster's promised "Bah gum lad, ah'll give 'em a proper lickin' in attack". Didn't happen before, not really. Part of it's due to quality of player and injury. But I also think that with the safety first mentality, players are too slow to look for opportunities. There is also a serious problem in terms of the style England are aiming for, and the style that suits the players we've got. The backline is incredibly confused. Youngs and Farrell seem to be looking for space out wide, but we have no distributors in the middle or finishers on the wing (save for Tom Croft

). Barritt and Tuilagi can charge hard on the gainline, but lack support runners - as Flood did in his most recent game. Brown and Ashton are at their best coming making surprise runs into the centre, but don't really seem to be making them. It's a bit of a mess.
Me, I'd like to see us take a step back. Select some players who are either heads above the rest, or select a style of player we have in spades, and build around that. That is what should provide our best team after all. Which, for me, would be Tuilagi and the sniping scrum-half - and I suppose I should include Ashton, Lancaster being the madman he is. Which suggests a team that runs support lines to people attacking around the fringes far, far more often than currently happens. Tuilagi is either the threat that prevents them from getting too narrow to counter this, or the weapon by which we punish them once they've got narrow and are on the back foot. Which neatly brings me back to Toby Flood, who is very good at attacking the fringes and using support runners. Freddie Burns could probably play this game too, Slade looks like he'd enjoy it.
Alternately... we start promoting our very fast wingers, play our best distributing scrum-half - Dickson at a guess - play a fly-half with good distribution whose running fixes people - Burns - and rely on the guys out wide to do the damage, with a hyper athletic pack supporting them. Unfortunately, I think we'd need a smarter 13 to play that game - it's a shame neither Twelvetrees or Eastmond plays there.
I suppose option 3 is to build around Farrell, which means a second playmaker is urgently needed. Although, really, Farrell's best hope of building a good attacking game at international level is to study the tapes of Wilkinson and Flood really hard - both worked very hard on their step and short passing - and spend a lot of time with a good sprint coach. Farrell would need an absolutely nails pack more than the other too, which is unfortunate, as we don't have one yet.
But anything really, as long as all the pieces fit. Which they have not done yet.