Magners League Play-off race

[monkeypigeon]

http://www.magnersleague.com/matchcentre/table.php

So with Munster's victory over Leinster, they have a 12 point lead at the top of the table with 3 matches left.

However Leinster's loss and the Cardiff-Ospreys draw opens the playoff spaces to all the teams in the top 6.

Ulster play Leinster next gameweek too, which means one of the top 4 teams will be dropping points.

Cardiff are 4 points behind a play off spot but hold a match in hand.

Scarlets are 5 points behind, but after how todays results fell, will be fired up to bounce back after their loss to Ulster.


How does everyone see it going?

 

[TRF_Olyy]

I think it'll stay as it is, tbh, with Munster, Ulster, Ospreys and Leinster making it through
Would like to see Scarlets or Blues go through, but I can't see them getting past Leinster or Ospreys, who are both at least 4pts ahead, and with matches against Aironi, Dragons and Connacht left to play* (though I think the Connacht games might be away, so they might not be counted as easier games!)

Think Blues are with the best shout of breaking into the top 4, as they've the easier run in than Scarlets and the match in hand, but can't see it, tbh



*I don't think these games are easy, but I think they're easier than playing, for example, Munster like Scarlets have to

 

[dullonien]

Here's the run-in for each of the top 6 placed teams.

Munster: Scarlets (away), Ospreys (away), Connacht (home).
Ulster: Leinster (away), Connacht (home), Dragons (away).
Ospreys: Dragons (away), Munster (home), Aironi (away).
Leinster: Ulster (home), Aironi (away), Glasgow (home).
Blues: Connacht (away), Treviso (home), Dragons (away), Scarlets (away).
Scarlets: Munster (home), Glasgow (away), Blues (home).

Here's my analysis:

Munster: could loose 2 out of their remaining 3 fixtures. Still will finish in the top two I'd emagine.
Ulster: realistic chance of loosing 2 aswell, especially with the strength of the Dragons at home.
Ospreys: they too could loose 2, but could win all three.
Leinster: easy run-in I feel, should win all 3 games.
Blues: a game in hand. I'd back them to win at least 2 games, and could realisticly win all 4.
Scarlets: two big home games, could win all 3, would that be enough even so?

So Munster and Leinster certainly there already. Ulster could slide in the comming weeks, and the Blues should come into things. Dragons look set to have a big influence on the makeup of the play-offs, with three of the top 6 visiting Rodney Parade where they're usually strong. Very interesting, and I think I'll probably go with:

Munster (81)
Ospreys (70)
Leinster (70)
Blues (69)

Ulster (65)
Scalets (57)

Ulster to just miss out due to the Blues game they have in hand.

Edit: Leinster probably in second as they will have won one more game than the O's.

 

[monkeypigeon]

Should get interesting this weekend.

One of Leinster or Ulster will drop points. Ulster you would expect.

Meanwhile it should be relatively easy points for Cardiff at home to Treviso and Scarlets after a week off are going to be up against either a battered Munster squad after 2 tough weeks against; Leinster and then Brive in 30 degrees of sun...or a more likely, a selection of inexperienced players thrown in the deep end against a hungry Scarlets side in Wales.

Either way, you'd expect Cardiff to be making gains at at the expense of either Leinster or Ulster...

Thoughts?

 

[TRF_Cymro]

Blues have a way of messing things up. So don't be sure for us.

 

[DuncTheDoodle]

Blues also have a weay of peaking just at the end of the season. Could yet happen.

Either way, I think it'll be the three Irish teams and the Ospreys. And, provided they get into the play-offs, Ulster to win the league. You heard it here first, folks.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

1.Munster
2.Ospreys
3.Ulster
4.Leinster

I think Ulster Will beat Leinster and the Blues and Scarlets to struggle and Final a repeat of last year with a different result.

 

[dullonien]

I'm loving the play-offs in the Magners. They don't work for every league, but they've been awesome here. This year is the most exciting run-in yet in the Magners/Celtic League due to how close the teams from 2nd to 6th are.

C'mon Blues, we don't want to see three bloody Irish teams in the playoffs

 

[monkeypigeon]

So a real kick in the not the Tommy Bowespreys after there brethren from Newport/Gwent give them a good kicking. Only one bonus point for the Ospreys leaves them venerable to Cardiff who have a match in hand and trail by only two points after beating Connacht last night.

If Scarlets can beat a young Munster side in the Park of Scarlets (which they should) then they'll trail Ospreys by only 4 going in to the last two weeks and if Leinster were to lose (which they shouldn't) by only 2 points.

Meanwhie, Ulster will be have a a party in their pants, as the Ospreys loss keeps them in the play-off places (for now) even if they lose. And with Connacht at home and the Dragons away, they'll figure they have some chance of holding on.

Has the Opreys shot themselves in the foot-despite Tommy Bowe's best efforts? (yes that's right, he's exempt from all criticism).

 

[TVH11]

well the ospreys sure do know how to make things hard for themselves. All credit goes to the dragons for their immense performance, and i'm glad that we didn't win cause we wouldn't have deserved it. One only needs to look at the battle in the rucks and mauls to see which team wanted to win the match, the dragons were fierce in the breakdown. I certainly hope the Ospreys have a major shake up in the summer, because from last nights performance it looks as if there are more players in the "Mike Phillips I wanna leave" category. And with a performance like last nights, they can go In some ways i hope the ospreys don't get to the play-offs, because it will force a major shake up in the summer. Everyone blames coaches, but surely with that squad they shouldn't need coaching. This season is yet another season in which it promised so much, but delivered nothing (so far). Although i don't always agree with the "play off" system, i think its had a positive effect on the leagues intensity, certainly at the end of season period. Anyways, all credit to the dragons and everyone involved. Their doing what regional rugby should be about, developing young talent

 

[Feicarsinn]

The race for the playoffs

So, with only two fixtures left for the teams in the running to get to the semi finals, it really couldn't be any closer. There are 4 teams; Leinster, Ospreys, Cardiff and Ulster competing for the remaining three spots, with Munster having already topped the table with ease. Here's a look at the table and the remaining games for each side:

Leinster fixtures:
Aironi vs Leinster
Leinster vs Glasgow

Ospreys fixtures:
Ospreys vs Munster
Aironi vs Ospreys

Cardiff fixtures:
Dragons vs Cardiff
Scarlets vs Cardiff

Ulster fixtures:
Ulster vs Connacht
Dragons vs Ulster




You'd imagine looking at that that Ospreys and Leinster are pretty much in. Both should be looking to take 8 points minimun, however Munster are never an easy proposition and Leinster may have one eye on Europe. That'd leave Cardiff and Ulster to scrap it out for the last spot. At the moment I'd favour Ulster. Cardiff have two tough Welsh derbies to play on the road, games which they'll do well to take five points out of. The Connacht game should be a banker for the Nordies while a bonus point would be a reasonable return from Newport.

It'll be close, but my predicted semi finals are:

Munster vs Ulster
Leinster vs Ospreys


Thoughts?

 

[TRF_Cymro]

Merged Feic's thread, there was one already on the Magners Play Off's.

 

[Feicarsinn]

Merged Feic's thread, there was one already on the Magners Play Off's.

Oops.

 

[TRF_Cymro]

No damaged done.

 

[munstermuffin]

Ulster can be handful for us but I wouldn't rule Cardiff out as I can see them picking up 8 points

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Ulster would have to have a major slip not to make it. But with two losses in a row it wouldn't be impossible as they are a streaky team.

 

[TVH11]

Well considering i'm an ospreys fan, i'd obviously want my side in the top 4. But, in all fairness i think it possibly would be a good thing for us to not get in top 4. This season has yet again been an utter disappointment, and i think if we were to get to the top 4 (and possibly further) then it would overshadow the true picture. Theres something extremely strange going down at the Liberty, and it certainly isn't positive. I guess it could be a blessing in disguise for us to fail to qualify, i'm sure a huge shakeup would follow. For us to develop into a "european force" or a true team of "galactico's" (always promised but soon played down). I for one, wouldn't mind a new coaching setup (but to be fair its the players on the pitch that have under performed). I've always been a huge fan of Paul Turner and i do think that given financial backing he could work wonders. I have upmost respect for what he achieved with the dragons, and i feel his no nonsense approach could definitely shake some of the "bigger personalities" of their pedestals. Anyways lest look forward i guess

 

[Groundhog]

true ospreys are a good side but always under perform

 

[monkeypigeon]

15 Lee Byrne
14 Nikki Walker
13 Tommy Bowe
12 James Hook
11 Richard Fussell
10 Dan Biggar
9 Rhys Webb

1 Ryan Bevington
2 Richard Hibbard
3 Adam Jones
4 Ian Gough
5 Alun Wyn Jones (Capt)
6 Justin Tipuric
7 Marty Holah
8 Jonathan Thomas

Replacements

16 Huw Bennett, 17 Paul James, 18 Duncan Jones, 19 Ryan Jones, 20 Jerry Collins, 21 Mike Phillips, 22 Andrew Bishop, 23 Sonny Parker

15. F Jones;
14. D Howlett,
13. L Mafi,
12. P Warwick,
11. K Earls;
10. R O'Gara capt,
9. C Murray;
1. M Horan,
2. D Varley,
3. J Hayes;
4. I Nagle,
5. D O'Callaghan;
6. D Ryan,
7. D Wallace,
8. J Coughlan.

Replacements: M Sherry, W du Preez, T Buckley, T O'Donnell, N Ronan, P Stringer, D Barnes, S Zebo.


So Munster putting out a mixed team of experienced and new to the scene. That said, Ospreys shouldn't be cocky about the likes of Nagle, Murray and Jones who've all shown that they could end up as seriously good players. Murray and Jones are being called as potential world cup bolters. And Zebo is looking like a proper wing.

Meanwhile, a seriously good ospreys team though they might be missing Williams and it looks like they have a couple of other injuries.

Munster look like they want to win this one.

Ulster and Cardiff will REALLY want Munster to win this one.

 

[TVH11]

You hit the nail on the head by saying munster WANT to win it. Ospreys havent looked like wanting a win all week. Ggggggrrrrrr

We need super shane fit =(

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