Opening test line up predictions

[MarkyH]

I've to no idea who I'd pick in a test 23 at the moment, I change my mind all the time, and after each game. That's half the fun mind.... Its made difficult by quality in the 2nd row and back-row. The fact that Warbs is nailed on to start 7 (I do rate him, but I think we have other standout candidates).

This a a 23 I would love to see for the first test, It's how I would go based on what we've seen so far. I know Gats prob won't. Still struggle at 13, and I'm not a massive fan of T'eo even though he has played decent. Straight fight otherwise between T'eo/Henshaw/JJ/JD. All class tbh

1. McGrath
2. Owens
3. Furlong
4. Itoje
5. Kruis
6. Warburton
7. SOB
8. Faletau

9. Murray
10. Sexton
11. Daly
12. Farrell
13. T'eo
14. North
15. Watson

Mako, George, Cole, Lawes, CJ, Webb, Henshaw, Williams

Bit gutted to miss out Tips, AWJ, Nowell, POM. Just no idea how to fit them all in atm

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

My 23 after the first 3 tests:
1. McGrath
2. Owens
3. Furlong
4. Itoje
5. Kruis
6. O'Mahony
7. Tipuric
8. Faletau
9. Murray
10. Farrell
11. North/Daly - If North develops some hunger and goes off of his wing looking for ball then he's a shoe-in. If not then it goes to Daly
12. Te'o
13. Davies
14. Nowell - I want to persist. He had a mare vs the Blues but as I've said before, it was Ioane's pace that caught him out. He'll be opposite Savea in the tests who has nowhere near as impressive pace. I still believe that Nowell is by far our best winger to contain Savea
15. Watson

16. George
17. Vunipola
18. Sinckler
19. Lawes
20. Stander
21. Webb
22. Sexton
23. Henshaw

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Hogg reportedly ruled out for a minimum of a week with yet another head knock.

 

[munstermuffin]

Based on few things.

1. McGrath
2. George
3. Furling
4. AWJ
5. Kruis
6. POM
7. O'Brien
8. Faletau
9. Murray
10. Farrell
11. Daly
12. Teo
13. Joseph
14. North
15. Halfpenny

16. Owens
17. Mako
18. Sinkler
19. Itoje
20. Stander
21. Webb
22. Sexton
23. Watson

Tipuric is in mix too. And any of front rows can be there. But think Watson at 15 isn't the exact answer as it will be a big step up vs All Blacks and he's not estavlished enough. Also going out Hogg and Williams were miles ahead as starting 15s battle but both have massivrly been disappointing

 

[Caitlyn Jenner]

Just to touch on the Naholo over Ioane selection. I think selecting playmakers and high ball specialists works for us at 14. We have liked to do that in the last 6 years isntead of having 2 battering rams on the wing. We've like to employ Savea at 11 then playmakers and high specialists at 14, like C.Jane, B.Smith, Piutau, NMS, Dagg and now Ioane.

I don't think the balance would be there with Naholo and Savea being selected for the starting XV.

I'm backing R.Ioane to start if Dagg doesn't show up this weekend.

I agree with the thinking re. having a more rounded, high-ball specialist on one wing, but can we really consider Rieko that type of player? If anything I'd think he's more in the same vain of a Savea/Naholo..... Big, fast, lots of X-Factor.

 

[Ground We Won]

Reiko isn't particulary big in my eyes, maybe tallish, but not like Savea and Naholo build. Yep he's definitely got that skillset. After watching Dagg last few games I wish Skudder was picked ahead of him. But Dagg should be fine I guess, was solid under the high ball on Saturday.

 

[Caitlyn Jenner]

Yea I agree... I have no issues really with Dagg, but I wish NMS had been picked. Would've had him ahead of Jordie and Rieko too. I'm confident he'll play himself back into the squad for the RC though.

 

[ianw16]

According to a report I read in the NZ Herald, only Squire and Coles will definitely miss the first test. Everybody else looks good to go. Cruden and Read to miss Samoa game, but will make 1st test squad.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/rugby/news/article.cfm?c_id=80&objectid=11874333

 

[Larksea]

15, Ben Smith
14, Dagg
13, ALB
12, SBW
11, Naholo
10, Barrett
9, Perenara
8, Read
7, Cane
6, kaino
5, Retalick
4, Whitelock
3, Franks
2, Harris
1, Moody

Crockett, Faumuina, Taylor, Romano, Savea, Cruden, Smith, Ionae

So close in many poistions, toss a coin in places.
I think TJP is in better form but I hope come the tests he stops talking and focuses on his game. I wouldn't be surprised if Smith started either. Both starting and bench halfbacks are just as important IMO for different reasons.
Naholo has to be ahead of Julian Savea and I dont like them both together. We want a winger with a high chance of genuinely punishing the lions and that has to be Naholo.
Dagg isn't back to his best but hes tracking OK and he seems to have a really good combination with Ben Smith.
Scott barrett and Squire under injury clouds that leaves Romano and Ardie Savea to fill the bench.
I do think Harris is our best option at hooker, hes is a very smart player, a bit more physical and his form is tracking well. I think he is the one guy we have in NZ that is as good as Coles when hes at his best.
SBW may well have won that 12 jersey from his effort in the blues game, and ALB has recently found some really good form and his big game against the hurricanes Duo of laumape and ASO pretty much cemented him as our best option at 13 - it is a fairly new combination for the AB's though.
I like Ioane as an option from the bench. His size and genuine speed could cause the lions big issues later on. Jordie is an interesting option here as well considering he kicks goals.
you expect Cruden will come fro the bench as long as his knee is better but as far as goal kicking goes Sopoaga may be a good idea, and he has been a good impact option in the past.

 

[Umaga's Witness]

15, Ben Smith
14, Dagg
13, ALB
12, SBW
11, Naholo
10, Barrett
9, Perenara
8, Read
7, Cane
6, kaino
5, Retalick
4, Whitelock
3, Franks
2, Harris
1, Moody

Crockett, Faumuina, Taylor, Romano, Savea, Cruden, Smith, Ionae

So close in many poistions, toss a coin in places.
I think TJP is in better form but I hope come the tests he stops talking and focuses on his game. I wouldn't be surprised if Smith started either. Both starting and bench halfbacks are just as important IMO for different reasons.
Naholo has to be ahead of Julian Savea and I dont like them both together. We want a winger with a high chance of genuinely punishing the lions and that has to be Naholo.
Dagg isn't back to his best but hes tracking OK and he seems to have a really good combination with Ben Smith.
Scott barrett and Squire under injury clouds that leaves Romano and Ardie Savea to fill the bench.
I do think Harris is our best option at hooker, hes is a very smart player, a bit more physical and his form is tracking well. I think he is the one guy we have in NZ that is as good as Coles when hes at his best.
SBW may well have won that 12 jersey from his effort in the blues game, and ALB has recently found some really good form and his big game against the hurricanes Duo of laumape and ASO pretty much cemented him as our best option at 13 - it is a fairly new combination for the AB's though.
I like Ioane as an option from the bench. His size and genuine speed could cause the lions big issues later on. Jordie is an interesting option here as well considering he kicks goals.
you expect Cruden will come fro the bench as long as his knee is better but as far as goal kicking goes Sopoaga may be a good idea, and he has been a good impact option in the past.

I agree with most of this if crude is fit adn s.barrett is not. my explanation would pretty much be the same too. my team had no cruden because i thought he wouldn't be fit, therefore had j.barret as 1st five cover, but starting at fullback with laumape as extra impact form bench. s.barret was on the bench instead of romano. so assuming s.barrett is not fit but crude is, the only difference i'd have is j.barret starting ahead of dagg, with b.smith on the right wing. b.barret can always cover fullback if j cracks. dagg was good last year, but just hasn't had enough game time.

 

[Caitlyn Jenner]

I agree with most of this if crude is fit adn s.barrett is not. my explanation would pretty much be the same too. my team had no cruden because i thought he wouldn't be fit, therefore had j.barret as 1st five cover, but starting at fullback with laumape as extra impact form bench. s.barret was on the bench instead of romano. so assuming s.barrett is not fit but crude is, the only difference i'd have is j.barret starting ahead of dagg, with b.smith on the right wing. b.barret can always cover fullback if j cracks. dagg was good last year, but just hasn't had enough game time.

What's your thinking behind having Jordie at 15?
Bender is the best fullback in the world, so it's probably smart to play him there. We have plenty of good wings.
Jordie is too green and imo just plain not good enough to be the starting ABs fullback rn...
The only benefit I can see from having him is goal-kicking, but that's not worth it imo.

IMO, this should be it:
1. Moody
2. Taylor
3. Franks
4. Retallick
5. Whitelock
6. Kaino
7. Cane
8. Read
9. Smith
10. Barrett
11. Savea
12. SBW
13. ALB
14. Dagg
15. Smith

16. Harris
17. Crockett
18. Faumuiina
19. Romano
20. Savea
21. Perenara
22. Cruden
23. Ioane

 

[Umaga's Witness]

QUOTE="Caitlyn Jenner, post: 856840, member: 74470"]What's your thinking behind having Jordie at 15?
Bender is the best fullback in the world, so it's probably smart to play him there. We have plenty of good wings.
Jordie is too green and imo just plain not good enough to be the starting ABs fullback rn...
The only benefit I can see from having him is goal-kicking, but that's not worth it imo.
[/QUOTE]

Hey mate, 4 reasons re Jordie.

1. I just don't think Dagg is at his best. A sub par Dagg is very different to a Dagg at his best because when he's not on form he makes mistakes.
2. smith will be picked as one of the back three and naholo/savea as another because they like to have a big blockbusting winger. We'll lose if we don't have players good under the highball. so to me, its between dagg and jordie.
3. b.smith plays well on the wing too, though i agree he is better at 15.
4. he won't play the 80. crude will come on and beauden back to fullback.

it's a close call though.

 

[The Jones Boy]

2, Harris

Help me out here, who is Harris?

Ionae

Reiko or Akira?

Dagg isn't back to his best but hes tracking OK and he seems to have a really good combination with Ben Smith.

I'm done with Dagg. He would have to play out of his skin to make me change my mind.

 

[Bob]

Help me out here, who is Harris?





Reiko or Akira?



I'm done with Dagg. He would have to play out of his skin to make me change my mind.

Nathan Harris. Was ahead of Taylor as ABs hooker before injury. Great player.

Rieko Ioane obviously.

Why are you done with Dagg? He's hardly played this year and was great last year. Seems very harsh.

 

[hunthmc1]

Is this the team to beat New Zealand?

1 - Mako Vunipola
Scrummaging has improved immensely over the last 18 months and offers more than any other front row in the loose

2 - Ken Owens
Mr consistent, will hit his lineouts and be a rock in defence. Except George to come on before the hour mark to provide some x factor.

3 - Tadhg Furlong
The Best scrummager on tour, a handful with ball in hand as well

4 - Alun Wyn Jones
Experience and leadership will be invaluable, can link up well with Owens

5 - George Kruis
Lions will have to dominate set piece to keep the ball away from New Zealand, the lineout maestro will aide this.

6 - Maro Itoje
Too good to be left out, more than comfortable at 6 and can change the game with his class

7 - Sean O'Brien
Game comes a week early for Warburton to start, O'Brien is a beast at the tackle area as well as with ball in hand

8 - Taulupe Faletau
Player of the tour so far, has more than filled the void left by injury to Vunipola

9 - Conor Murray
Big physical 9 needs bully the smaller NZ scrum halves. World class kicking game can keep NZ in their own half

10 - Owen Farrell
One of the best players on the planet, world class kicking game, handling and defence.

11 - George North
A world beater at his best, we need him to just that

12 - Ben Te'o
Have to pick on form here and Te'o has played his way into the XV

13 - Jonathan Joseph
One of the headache areas for Gatland, Joseph gets the nod over Davies for his ability to be a match winner shown in the Scotland game during the six nations

14 - Liam Williams
Another physical winger who can frustrate the All Blacks, knows his way the try line too

15 - Anthony Watson
Injury to Hogg is unfortunate however Watson played his way into the XV with his performance against the Crusaders. Hushed doubters about his ability under the high ball

 

[Saint Matt]

1. Vunipola
2. Owens
3. Furlong
4. Kruis
5. Lawes
6. Itoje
7. O'Brien
8. Faletau
9. Murray
10. Sexton
11. North
12. Farrell
13. Teo
14. Watson
15. Halfpenny

16. George
17. McGrath
18. Sinkler
19. Wyn-Jones
20. Stander
21. Webb
22. Joseph
23. Williams

 

[MarkyH]

Nearly the same as above...

1. Vunipola
2. Owens
3. Furlong
4. Kruis
5. Itoje
6. POM
7. O'Brien
8. Faletau
9. Murray
10. Sexton
11. North
12. Farrell
13. Teo
14. Watson
15. Halfpenny

16. George
17. McGrath
18. Sinkler
19. Wyn-Jones
20. Stander
21. Webb
22. Joseph
23. Williams

I think if Warbs is fully fit tho he might come in at 6 instead of POM. Need to leave Stander on bench for carrying impact.

 

[Umaga's Witness]

interesting to see 2 people picking itoje at 6. i thought there were too many options in the loosies, no need to add more.

i've made a few changes (in italics) to my test team. swapped kris for lawes, Davies in for joseph as the better defender. daly for hogg, george for owens, tipuric for stander.

Irish front row
Itoje
Kruis
O'Brien
Warburton
Faletau
Murray
Farrell
north
te'o
davies
watson
halfpenny

reserves: sinckler, vunipola, george, lawes, tipuric, webb, sexton, daly

for the maori

vunipola george sinckler
henderson
kruis
warburton
tipuric
faletau
webb
sexton
north
te'o
davies
daly
halfpenny

reserves: irish front row, itoje, o'brine, murray, farrell, watson

,ending the game with the starting test team, for 30 mins.

 

[ncurd]

Is Te'o really the best we have at 13? I somehow doubt it.

 

[Jakedood]

1. Vunipola

His hands, ability to hold the defender before passing, his improved scrummaging and ability to get him over the gain line, he's a phenomenal loosehead now, and his ability in the loose just edges out Jack McGrath. McGrath has an extra dimension scrummaging wise if we look to eke out some late penalties and dominate that area, too, so its nip & tuck but I would call Mako

2. George

Despite having least international experience, he's been a revelation, in the loose and the tight, his set piece has been outstanding and he looks the most comfortable on the ball and around the park

3. Furlong

Dan Cole was demolished late on by HL Loosehead, who got right under him, and he provides nothing in the losoe other than penalties. Sinckler could add something here, and I'd love to see that, but think he's a little rough around the edges still, and Furlong has shown more composure as well as dominating the All blacks both in the scrum and the loose in November

4. Kruis

This man does so much unseen dirty work, and is a requirement for the starting Lock

5. Itoje

Fast, Mobile, his tackling technique is superb, good over the ball, and a great rugby brain, AWJ has not looked sharp enough for me, and Henderson is maybe a bit too up and down. Lawes has looked good, but worried about how big that head knock will be for him, and think Itoje just has that little bit more X Factor that we really desperately need

6. Peter O'Mahony

He'll be at the bottom of every ruck, great for another lineout option, gets stuck in tackle wise, and he drives on those around him, leading from the front. Defensively is sublime and cant be left out really

7. O'Brien

Immense. Warbs not showing the form, and Tipuric to come on for the broken field of last 20 minutes

8. Faletau

Self-Explanatory

9. Murray

Self-Explanatory

10. Sexton

Oh to See Ford/Russell combined with Farrell at 12.. alas, its not to be, so Sexton will come in here, and hopefully come into form and click when he's needed most
Our inside centres have such poor passing abilities, we need two ball players at 10/12


11. North

Again has that little bit of magic, and hoping Sexton's rap around plays, and the playmaking abilities of 10/12 can bring him more into the game

12. Farrell

See 10

13. Elliott Daly

He's been switched around a bit this tour position wise, but his Electric pace, and big boot, combined with his handling which is excellent, mean I think he should be starting 13. Not expecting it to happen, but I wish it would

14. Watson

Shown enough ability so far in tight spaces to stand out from the rest of the wingers brought along, has to start somewhere.

15. Halfpenny

Its inevitable, so why even argue the point. I'd prefer Liam Williams, but its not going to happen

16. Owens
17. McGrath
18. Sinckler
19. Henderson (Can change a game on its head, brings more impact than Alun Wyn)
20. Tipuric
21. Webb
22. Henshaw
23. Williams