Rugby Championship: Argentina - New Zealand (29/09/2012)

[Darwin]

Estadio De La Plata, Buenos Aires (29-09-2012, 23:10 GMT)

Referee: J Peyper

Assistants: C Joubert

& P Gauzere
Television match official: Francisco Pastrana

​

 

[Superalexmarket]

-Estadio Ciudad de La Plata.
.Capacity: 53000.
.Inauguration: 2003 (remodelled in 2011)
Some pictures...

 

[admartian]

Either a draw, Argentina by 2; or the ABs by 5.

Not really a prediciton of sorts, but how ever the game goes, I think it will be very close.

 

[rgman]

Hey Superalexmarket, bro, great photos of La Plata Stadium... a few blocks from my home, and near Los Tilos rugby club

 

[Darwin]

AB's touring squad:
Forwards: Andrew Hore, Kevin Mealamu, Charlie Faumuina, Ben Franks, Owen Franks, Tony Woodcock, Brodie Retallick, Luke Romano, Sam Whitelock, Sam Cane, Richie McCaw (c), Liam Messam, Kieran Read, Adam Thomson, Victor Vito.
Backs: Aaron Smith, Piri Weepu, Beauden Barrett, Daniel Carter, Aaron Cruden, Tamati Ellison, Ma'a Nonu, Conrad Smith, Israel Dagg, Hosea Gear, Cory Jane, Ben Smith, Julian Savea.

No major injury concerns, though the fact that Beauden Barrett has been included is an indication that Carter isn't yet 100%.

Assuming Carter is fit I predict we will see a 22 something along the lines of:
Woodcock, Mealamu, O Franks, Romano, Whitelock, Messam, McCaw, Read, A Smith, Carter, Savea, Nonu, C Smith, Jane, Dagg.
Reserves: Hore, Faumuina, Retallick, Vito, Weepu, Cruden, B Smith.

The biggest selection issues for me would be the locks (personally I would start Retallick), hooker (as this is a 50:50 choice in my opinion), and the left wing spot, where Savea, Gear, and possibly even Ben Smith are options.

 

[Shaggy]

I think I would start both Retallick amd Romano, and bring Whitelock of the bench, as I think the scrum is better with the two new guys in there ... it would be nice to see Sam Cane get some game time off the bench too ... but I doubt that will happen. I think the All Blacks will win, but they'll have to grind the Pumas down like they did the last time they played.

 

[Big Ewis]

Either a draw, Argentina by 2; or the ABs by 5.

Not really a prediciton of sorts, but how ever the game goes, I think it will be very close.

Absolutely. A part from their first in SA, Argentina has kept on impressing all tournament long. And just thinking they managed to have the AB's only score at the 66th min on the road, they really have what it takes to challenge NZ at home. And they've shown such heart, and at this stage of the tournament, coming out empty-handed each time from close, close games...they're hungrier than ever. They've been waiting for this, shocking the world, and what a better way to do that than against the AB's....at home.
And during the meantime, NZ is going to be NZ...

So I opt for a rather low score. Something like 18-14 for either side, smt like that...

 

[psychic duck]

Absolutely. A part from their first in SA, Argentina has kept on impressing all tournament long. And just thinking they managed to have the AB's only score at the 66th min on the road, they really have what it takes to challenge NZ at home. And they've shown such heart, and at this stage of the tournament, coming out empty-handed each time from close, close games...they're hungrier than ever. They've been waiting for this, shocking the world, and what a better way to do that than against the AB's....at home.
And during the meantime, NZ is going to be NZ...

So I opt for a rather low score. Something like 18-14 for either side, smt like that...

Argentina may be able to defend against New Zealand and keep within respectable distance for the first hour.

But to beat them, they will have to actually threaten to score some tries, (especially as their kickers aren't doing great). Don't remember them threatening the All Black tryline much at all after Roncero scored in that last match.

 

[Gavin]

Cruden starting with Carter on the bench? Don't want to rush Carter back too quickly.

 

[Icemn]

Arg to win this one... it will be a good thing for the AB if that happens...

 

[Colombia]

NZ don't tend to slip up against teams like Argentina, Wales and Ireland but this is a somewhat weaker NZ side that struggled to get on top of Argentina at home until the 66th minute. I think NZ will win but if they didn't have Richie as captain driving them on I would make Los Pumas favorites.

 

[Big Ewis]

Argentina may be able to defend against New Zealand and keep within respectable distance for the first hour.

But to beat them, they will have to actually threaten to score some tries, (especially as their kickers aren't doing great). Don't remember them threatening the All Black tryline much at all after Roncero scored in that last match.

Nailed it. You're absolutely right. That is the one weighty, *very good reason* the AB's still have a big advantage. They almost resemble the French (Arg) in that they can pull out a killer try out of nowhere (like in Australia last week)...but yes, that is the one reality that favours NZ heavily. Argentina have neither the boot, nor the consistent attack to out-score the AB's, and if they win, it would be by grinding out some low score victory to the tune of some 15-12 or smt.
But I'm not seeing a blowout from the AB's though. No 5 tries or anything like that...no 43-12.

 

[Feicarsinn]

Nailed it. You're absolutely right. That is the one weighty, *very good reason* the AB's still have a big advantage. They almost resemble the French (Arg) in that they can pull out a killer try out of nowhere (like in Australia last week)...but yes, that is the one reality that favours NZ heavily. Argentina have neither the boot, nor the consistent attack to out-score the AB's, and if they win, it would be by grinding out some low score victory to the tune of some 15-12 or smt.
But I'm not seeing a blowout from the AB's though. No 5 tries or anything like that...no 43-12.

Disagree, New Zealand's one big advantage is that their players are much better than everyone else's.


All Blacks by 15.

 

[Darwin]

NZ don't tend to slip up against teams like Argentina, Wales and Ireland but this is a somewhat weaker NZ side that struggled to get on top of Argentina at home until the 66th minute. I think NZ will win but if they didn't have Richie as captain driving them on I would make Los Pumas favorites.

Yeah, this is a weak NZ side - they have only won their last 14 in a row

While it is possible that Argentina was get close, I think (assuming it is dry) the AB's will this game reasonably comfortably. The AB's haven't really been at their best throughout the Rugby Championship - if they start to click (like they did in the 3rd Ireland test for example), they could really rip a team apart. I think Argentina may be in trouble if the continue to use the narrow defensive line they have been using thus far, as it leaves a lot of space out wide. They got away with it in the first test versus the AB's due the conditions (and some rustiness among the AB's) but I feel they could struggle to defend the AB's out wide next weekend.

I will wait until the teams (and the weather conditions) are announced before I make my prediction, but at this stage I think the AB's will win rather comfortably...

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Stupid game, 11AM on Sunday NZ time! I have work!

Sick day?

 

[Big Ewis]

Disagree, New Zealand's one big advantage is that their players are much better than everyone else's.


All Blacks by 15.

haha, rrrrrrright. Yes. And that too.

 

[Captain Fantastic]

NZ don't tend to slip up against teams like Argentina, Wales and Ireland but this is a somewhat weaker NZ side that struggled to get on top of Argentina at home until the 66th minute. I think NZ will win but if they didn't have Richie as captain driving them on I would make Los Pumas favorites.

I was at the Argie/AB game in Wellington and there was never ever going to be a high scoring game. The conditions were atrocious and the wind was wicked with in the stadium. Argentina looked solid but against the AB's they didnt really threaten enough to be serious about knocking the AB's over. This game was more asserting their new gameplan that has obviously stepped upto a level that is defensively on par with the 3 major SH nations. Their next step would be to learn how to play an attacking game that could put the pressure on the Boks/Wallabies and AB's as the only way they will compete will be if they learn he ability to score points. At this moment in time they lack the creativity and skills sets to challenge seriously the top 3. However, with Henry assisting and a few more years in the competition the Argies will no doubt not only start beating the top 3 but will seriously challenge for the rugby championship

 

[ari_ale]

if you look at the results of matches in Buenos Aires. except just once. the games have always been fought.
So to say that NZ win by many points .... we'll see.



24 June 2006 Estadio José Amalfitani, Buenos Aires 19 â€" 25 New Zealand

1 December 2001 River Plate Stadium, Buenos Aires 20 â€" 24 New Zealand

13 July 1991 Estadio José Amalfitani, Buenos Aires 6 â€" 36 New Zealand

6 July 1991 Estadio José Amalfitani, Buenos Aires 14 â€" 28 New Zealand

2 November 1985 Estadio Ricardo Etcheverry, Buenos Aires 21 â€" 21 draw

26 October 1985 Estadio Ricardo Etcheverry, Buenos Aires 20 â€" 33 New Zealand

 

[Colombia]

Yeah, this is a weak NZ side - they have only won their last 14 in a row

I didn't say weak, I said somewhat weaker. It isn't the same NZ team which has won 14 in a row, they have lost Thorn and Kaino in that period and those two made a big difference in contact.

While it is possible that Argentina was get close, I think (assuming it is dry) the AB's will this game reasonably comfortably. The AB's haven't really been at their best throughout the Rugby Championship - if they start to click (like they did in the 3rd Ireland test for example), they could really rip a team apart. I think Argentina may be in trouble if the continue to use the narrow defensive line they have been using thus far, as it leaves a lot of space out wide. They got away with it in the first test versus the AB's due the conditions (and some rustiness among the AB's) but I feel they could struggle to defend the AB's out wide next weekend.

I will wait until the teams (and the weather conditions) are announced before I make my prediction, but at this stage I think the AB's will win rather comfortably...

They've been defending narrow all tournament in all conditions. In theory it should pose a problem, thus far for whatever reason it hasn't.

I think NZ will win narrowly and I have to say I don't feel the conditions will be a major factor. Argentina were in the WC QF for 60 minutes in perfect conditions before a couple of late NZ tries - this time they're at home.

 

[Darwin]

I didn't say weak, I said somewhat weaker. It isn't the same NZ team which has won 14 in a row, they have lost Thorn and Kaino in that period and those two made a big difference in contact.

You are right, this isn't the same team that won 14 in a row. They now have Richie McCaw playing on two legs rather than hobbling around the field. They now have a superb passing halfback to unleash their backline. They now have 1 (possibly 2) quality backups for Dan Carter should he get injured. They are definitely weaker in some respects as you mention (no Thorn, Kaino), but are much stronger in others, therefore I don't consider this a somewhat weaker team at all.

They've been defending narrow all tournament in all conditions. In theory it should pose a problem, thus far for whatever reason it hasn't.

I think NZ will win narrowly and I have to say I don't feel the conditions will be a major factor. Argentina were in the WC QF for 60 minutes in perfect conditions before a couple of late NZ tries - this time they're at home.

You are correct that it hasn't been an issue thus far, however I feel that New Zealand, far more than South Africa or Australia, are capable of exploiting a narrow defensive line.

Neither South Africa nor Australia tend to use the width of the field that well. On the odd occasion that Pienaar or Steyn don't kick the ball away, either F Steyn or de Villiers crash the ball up so the ball seldom gets out wide. Australia have a more varied attack, but seldom does this involve spreading the ball wide quickly. Genia spends a lot of time attacking the blindside, while when Cooper gets his hands on the ball he doesn't tend to pass it out immediately - most often he cuts back him self or uses McCabe to crash it up outside him. On the odd occasion he does pass it straight out neither McCabe nor Ashely-Cooper are noted distributors (indeed that is a major criticism of McCabe's game), so the ball very seldom gets out wide rapidly.

In contrast much of the AB's game-plan in recent years has involved moving from touch-line to touch-line to create space out wide. This is even more apparent this season when we have a halfback who has a superb passing game, and indeed we have even scored tries out wide from set piece moves this season (including one against Argentina!). This is not to say that Argentina's narrow defense won't work again, just that I predict it will be tested far more this week than it has been thus far this tournament.