Ehhhh, dunno. I guess 40-60 is fair. I'm happy with a couple of things. Our card count has been relatively low, and that was a big question mark pre-wc. We did get one vs England, which was silly and Carreras got away with murder vs Japan (50-50 between nothing and YC). The biggest plus for us is that we are coming on as underdogs. That is quite important for us.
Matera's out afaik but that's not that bad. Our pack is strong. To be fair i look at both potential lineups and i like ours the best. Question is whether Cheika will take it cautiously or not.
I am 100% convinced this is a game for Sanchez. We need to make this a game of attrition, try to win the contacts, and let Sanchez do his thing. No silly things.
Carreras (Mateo, the winger) had been a Disaster, capital D, till the game against Japan. He literally could not do one thing right. You could argue he is getting better but you could also argue (more seriously, granted) it is just one bloody data point. I think it'll help his confidence tho, and that's always good.
I also hope Bertranou gets benched.
Sanchez is also important because Boffelli ain't kicking well these days.
I see Wales style giving them an advantage tho. They are fighters and smart. How should i put this: they are better at maximizing their resources. They are not risk-takers, they will kick a LOT, try to force many small mistakes, and put 3's on the board. No stupid chances, only calculated risks. If there's an opening they'll take it but i don't see them risking much to create that opening.
I am not worried about our 12-13 battles nor about our 11-14 ones. Our 9-10-15 have to be on point. I'm happy if Cubelli and Sanchez get in the starting lineup and our 15 is good, but so is Wales'.
Given the way I read all of this the plan should be simple: i believe our pack can win most collisions so i'd fight fire with fire there and go for a territory+the fatmen's approach. Playing like it's 2007.
Plus, target their 10. Fairly but non-stop.
Another thing that goes against us is temperament. If things go bad early this could snowball spectacularly. I don't see the same happening for Wales.
Wales are also considerably better at ref-management.
Also, who do our Patagonian, Welsh speaking brethren support in this game?
They'll be taken to the gallows if Wales wins and laughed at to death if they lose.
Nah, all good. I guess older gens will go for Wales and younger ones will split. Blood runs deep but Arg soil gets under your skin. It's inevitable.