[RWC2023 QF1] Wales vs Argentina (14/10/2023)

[TRF_Olyy]

​

 

[IT157]

Wales win fairly comfortably.

 

[bushytop]

Wales win fairly comfortably.

 

[dirty harry]

SSSHHHHH STOP TALKING ABOUT IT!!!!

 

[BenniMarco]

I'd be surprised if this isn't close. Too many fans thinking semi finals are a cert. We should win based on form of both in past few games but Argentina were stronger than us going into WC so I'm a bit weary.

 

[dirty harry]

Were they really? They beat Australia.

I'd be surprised if this isn't close. Too many fans thinking semi finals are a cert. We should win based on form of both in past few games but Argentina were stronger than us going into WC so I'm a bit weary.

 

[Welsh Exile]

Our record over them, and their average form, has to make us favourites but I'd rather go into this game as underdogs to be honest.

I think it's a 50/50 game really maybe 60/40 in our favour and I do quietly fancy us to get the job done but very weary of the fact that if Argentina properly turn up we'll be in for a hard day at the office.

It will probably be the most boring quarter final as a spectacle but expect it to be dramatic in that neither team will win by more than 3-7 points.

Hopefully that extra days rest wil help us a little. Wonder if Gatland will announce the team early again.

 

[dirty harry]

My thoughts currently are that Gatland has played a masterclass, in the sense of game plan. He analysed Fij, Aus, and potentially Argentina as the big 3 threats, possibly SA too, and he set a gameplan so simplistic that even Welsh players could master it.

Keep the ball away from our try line, make them hold possession for long periods, making half a yard on every carry, defend in 2's and dont risk the massive dominant tackles (or the reds, yellows and linebreaks that come with them) and basically say 'come at me bro'

The defence always gets to the halfway if not over from deep kicks, and from centre of the park we drop it on the 22m line.

With a solid set peice we will be dangerous. The genius little part though is that we only play wide on transition or of set peice.

It's a very low risk plan, designed to strangle and frustrate, and the beat teams effected by this are Fiji, Aus and Argentina (God knows how we deal with NZ, we probably roll over and ask for a belly rub as we usually do).

So I think itll be relatively high scoring, Argentina scoring quality high level tries from everywhere, but Wales constantly ticking over the scoreboard, and capitalising on mistakes...

28-20 to Wales?

Our record over them, and their average form, has to make us favourites but I'd rather go into this game as underdogs to be honest.

I think it's a 50/50 game really maybe 60/40 in our favour and I do quietly fancy us to get the job done but very weary of the fact that if Argentina properly turn up we'll be in for a hard day at the office.

It will probably be the most boring quarter final as a spectacle but expect it to be dramatic in that neither team will win by more than 3-7 points.

Hopefully that extra days rest wil help us a little. Wonder if Gatland will announce the team early again.

 

[Welsh Exile]

Yeah not a bad shout on the score line.

Where's my boy @Cruz_del_Sur? Need a lo down on what's what with Argentina. Injuries and the like. What's the feeling in Argentina? I imagine, like us, that they are very happy with the fact the have an "easy" qtr final against Wales rather than SA, France, Ireland or NZ

Also, who do our Patagonian, Welsh speaking brethren support in this game?

 

[die_mole]

My favorite player vs my hemisphere. Shouldn't have to come to this.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Wales for my money though I'd imagine Argentina will make a fight of it. I truly believe that they are a better side than the pool stages showed but really I'm doubting my grip on it this RWC has been so off track as far as my predictions have gone.

 

[Cruz_del_Sur]

Ehhhh, dunno. I guess 40-60 is fair. I'm happy with a couple of things. Our card count has been relatively low, and that was a big question mark pre-wc. We did get one vs England, which was silly and Carreras got away with murder vs Japan (50-50 between nothing and YC). The biggest plus for us is that we are coming on as underdogs. That is quite important for us.
Matera's out afaik but that's not that bad. Our pack is strong. To be fair i look at both potential lineups and i like ours the best. Question is whether Cheika will take it cautiously or not.
I am 100% convinced this is a game for Sanchez. We need to make this a game of attrition, try to win the contacts, and let Sanchez do his thing. No silly things.
Carreras (Mateo, the winger) had been a Disaster, capital D, till the game against Japan. He literally could not do one thing right. You could argue he is getting better but you could also argue (more seriously, granted) it is just one bloody data point. I think it'll help his confidence tho, and that's always good.
I also hope Bertranou gets benched.
Sanchez is also important because Boffelli ain't kicking well these days.

I see Wales style giving them an advantage tho. They are fighters and smart. How should i put this: they are better at maximizing their resources. They are not risk-takers, they will kick a LOT, try to force many small mistakes, and put 3's on the board. No stupid chances, only calculated risks. If there's an opening they'll take it but i don't see them risking much to create that opening.

I am not worried about our 12-13 battles nor about our 11-14 ones. Our 9-10-15 have to be on point. I'm happy if Cubelli and Sanchez get in the starting lineup and our 15 is good, but so is Wales'.

Given the way I read all of this the plan should be simple: i believe our pack can win most collisions so i'd fight fire with fire there and go for a territory+the fatmen's approach. Playing like it's 2007.
Plus, target their 10. Fairly but non-stop.

Another thing that goes against us is temperament. If things go bad early this could snowball spectacularly. I don't see the same happening for Wales.
Wales are also considerably better at ref-management.

Also, who do our Patagonian, Welsh speaking brethren support in this game?

They'll be taken to the gallows if Wales wins and laughed at to death if they lose.

Nah, all good. I guess older gens will go for Wales and younger ones will split. Blood runs deep but Arg soil gets under your skin. It's inevitable.

 

[g6mcg]

England's performance against Argentina was very Gatland (not sure who I've offended more there...)

I guess Wainwright will be at 8?

 

[Welsh Exile]

I reckon the team will be

Thomas, Elias, Francis, Beard, Rowlands, Morgan, Reffell, Wainwright

Davies, Biggar, Adams, Tompkins, North, LRZ, Williams

Bench: Lake, Domachowski, Thomas, Jenkins, Lydiate, Williams, Anscombe, Dyer

The one I'm really unsure about is who is back row cover on the bench. Personally I don't think he trusts Tshiunza but I guess I could be wrong and he might start Lydiate over Reffell and then move Reffell to the bench. Rest of the picks are pretty straight forward though.

 

[dirty harry]

I reckon the team will be

Thomas, Elias, Francis, Beard, Rowlands, Morgan, Reffell, Wainwright

Davies, Biggar, Adams, Tompkins, North, LRZ, Williams

Bench: Lake, Domachowski, Thomas, Jenkins, Lydiate, Williams, Anscombe, Dyer

The one I'm really unsure about is who is back row cover on the bench. Personally I don't think he trusts Tshiunza but I guess I could be wrong and he might start Lydiate over Reffell and then move Reffell to the bench. Rest of the picks are pretty straight forward though.

I think you've nailed it, except that Tshiunza is a lineout option. Basham may well get the call, however, as Cruz says very aptly, gatland doesnt take risks, Tshiunza and basham are both higher risk than Lydiate.

Dont get me wrong, Falatau is going to be a loss, but I think reffel and Morgan is exactly what Wales need against this Argetninian pack. They are big and physical and will look to dominate collisions, the Welsh pack wont match that, they will do what they did V Fiji and Aus, they'll tackle lower, concede half a yard and stay on their feet, 2 fetchers can cause murder in those situations.

 

[OldSchoolRugga]

I don't usually back teams, but I really like Argentina, and I hope they beat Wales.

 

[Horacito]

I'm pretty sure that's not going to happen, it'll be Santi Carreras and Gonza Bertranou again
at this point, I'm pretty sure he does it because Sánchez just turned 35 and Santi is 26 or smth, he is the player for the foreseeable future (I do wish to get Miotti back some day tho).
I also agree we should let the fat bois play this one out, and hope to keeo the ball under contact, kick as much as possible and trust ourselves to Nico. But... I just don't see it happening

my hope is: score three fast tries at the beginning of the game just like in 2015, and then just PRAY for our mothers
other than that, I see Wales winning

Ehhhh, dunno. I guess 40-60 is fair. I'm happy with a couple of things. Our card count has been relatively low, and that was a big question mark pre-wc. We did get one vs England, which was silly and Carreras got away with murder vs Japan (50-50 between nothing and YC). The biggest plus for us is that we are coming on as underdogs. That is quite important for us.
Matera's out afaik but that's not that bad. Our pack is strong. To be fair i look at both potential lineups and i like ours the best. Question is whether Cheika will take it cautiously or not.
I am 100% convinced this is a game for Sanchez. We need to make this a game of attrition, try to win the contacts, and let Sanchez do his thing. No silly things.
Carreras (Mateo, the winger) had been a Disaster, capital D, till the game against Japan. He literally could not do one thing right. You could argue he is getting better but you could also argue (more seriously, granted) it is just one bloody data point. I think it'll help his confidence tho, and that's always good.
I also hope Bertranou gets benched.
Sanchez is also important because Boffelli ain't kicking well these days.

I see Wales style giving them an advantage tho. They are fighters and smart. How should i put this: they are better at maximizing their resources. They are not risk-takers, they will kick a LOT, try to force many small mistakes, and put 3's on the board. No stupid chances, only calculated risks. If there's an opening they'll take it but i don't see them risking much to create that opening.

I am not worried about our 12-13 battles nor about our 11-14 ones. Our 9-10-15 have to be on point. I'm happy if Cubelli and Sanchez get in the starting lineup and our 15 is good, but so is Wales'.

Given the way I read all of this the plan should be simple: i believe our pack can win most collisions so i'd fight fire with fire there and go for a territory+the fatmen's approach. Playing like it's 2007.
Plus, target their 10. Fairly but non-stop.

Another thing that goes against us is temperament. If things go bad early this could snowball spectacularly. I don't see the same happening for Wales.
Wales are also considerably better at ref-management.



They'll be taken to the gallows if Wales wins and laughed at to death if they lose.

Nah, all good. I guess older gens will go for Wales and younger ones will split. Blood runs deep but Arg soil gets under your skin. It's inevitable.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

I agree that Sanchez has to start for game management and penalty kicking. Carrerras is not doing it for me and you know Wales are going to start Biggar and emphasise territorial play and be happy with 2x tries and a bunch of penalty kicks.

Pumas have been quite incoherent, lacking fluidity (and often basic ability) and defending poorly. Whereas despite limitations Wales look like a team where each part knows what is required of them both in and out of possession. You need to be able to perform at a certain level to score points on a Gatland Wales side and the Pumas will need to go up at least two gears to reach that level.

 

[Saintjay]

Jaco Peyper confirmed as ref - easy win for Wales it is then.

 

[Horacito]

Gotta be born Argentinean to have this kind of luck