The Lions squad for 2021 prediction

[TRF_heineken]

We haven't picked the fly-halves for it, I'll be mightily surprised if Russell is in the test day line up I'm still in slight shock he made the plane at all.

Finn Russel and Owen Farrel are both in that mould, maybe not Carter quality but probably in the same mould as Richie Mo'unga.

@Welsh Exile :Nah, we'll do what Wales have done successfully several times against SA. Keep the ball in play, move your pack around and front up physically. Going to be 3 arm wrestles

Wales has never won in South Africa though, and if you want to front up physically, then why didn't Gatland pick Scrummaging Props, or Big and Strong loose forwards? He picked mobile props, and smaller, faster loose forwards.

Some of these loose forwards will most probably stick next to a winger, and try and contain the corners.

But if the pack can't front up at the scrums, mauls and lineouts, then they will have a torrid time.

 

[ncurd]

Finn Russel and Owen Farrel are both in that mould, maybe not Carter quality but probably in the same mould as Richie Mo'unga.

Farrells really not, especially with his form since the world cup.

 

[Welsh Exile]

SA pack in 2017 against Wales. Shockingly bad if you ask me.


Forwards

• 1 Steven Kitshoff
• 2 Malcolm Marx
• 3 Wilco Louw
• 4 Eben Etzebeth (Captain)
• 5 Lood de Jager
• 6 Siya Kolisi
• 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit
• 8 Dan du Preez

 

[big ginger 8]

Apart from Mako which props would you argue he took who are mobile and can't scrummage? I think Gatland is less concerned with it at loosehead but he was definitely thinking about scrummaging with the tightheads.

The 8s and Tipuric are definitely selected with the wide channels in mind but wouldn't say that's the case with the other locks and backrowers.

 

[ncurd]

I mean 16-18 were hardly vintage Boks - they went 7-7 in 2018, for example.
Many were writing them off pre-RWC (smugly I predicted them to win the comp, pre-tournament, and was shouted down for it )

Shockingly bad is an over exaggeration, but the 2019 vintage was so so much better than the years previous


It's been so long that I don't think you can look into form or tactics of any game pre-RWC, I mean look at Gatland's win over them in summer 2018: Hardly 1st XV vs 1st XV, it was two B sides scrapping in America for some weird reason
England beat them with Cipriani at 10 and Brown on the wing
None of these results bare any significance on what's going to happen in 2021 - I'd argue you can't even take into account the World Cup seeing as we're now halfway through the next cycle

3rd place finish in 2017 Rugby Championship, nilled by NZ to their 57 (who were hardly all conquering heroes at the time), two draws.

I wouldn't call them shocking either but it was a bit like bragging about beating Australia in their current state. SA fans on here were absolutely livid with the Erasmus era boks.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

SA pack in 2017 against Wales. Shockingly bad if you ask me.


Forwards

• 1 Steven Kitshoff
• 2 Malcolm Marx
• 3 Wilco Louw
• 4 Eben Etzebeth (Captain)
• 5 Lood de Jager
• 6 Siya Kolisi
• 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit
• 8 Dan du Preez

Similar pack lost to Italy on the same tour, tbf

They drew vs Barbarians then lose three in a row

 

[Welsh Exile]

I understand you English lads are suffering from PTSD in that final but not all of us are ******** the bed. Even if you just look at the WC SA beat an injury ravaged Wales by 3 points with the help of the ref. The lions is, player wise, is a much superior team. So I don't get all the negativity to be honest.

 

[Welsh Exile]

Similar pack lost to Italy on the same tour, tbf

They drew vs Barbarians then lose three in a row

Fair, but a lot of that pack won the WC. I don't think it's so black and white. I know it's easy to just write off Wales' recent record against SA as "SA were shockingly bad then" like there players were all trash or something but it's not as straight forward as that

 

[Welsh Exile]

3rd place finish in 2017 Rugby Championship, nilled by NZ to their 57 (who were hardly all conquering heroes at the time), two draws.

I wouldn't call them shocking either but it was a bit like bragging about beating Australia in their current state. SA fans on here were absolutely livid with the Erasmus era boks.

And 2018? Still terrible then were they? Beating England was easy as England are rubbish?

 

[TRF_Olyy]

I understand you English lads are suffering from PTSD in that final but not all of us are ******** the bed. Even if you just look at the WC SA beat an injury ravaged Wales by 3 points with the help of the ref. The lions is, player wise, is a much superior team. So I don't get all the negativity to be honest.

No one's being negative, they're being realistic
You're bringing up results from 4 years ago to show that Gatland's tactics vs SA are proven winners when in reality it's completely irrelevant to the current state of the sides.

 

[TRF_heineken]

3rd place finish in 2017 Rugby Championship, nilled by NZ to their 57 (who were hardly all conquering heroes at the time), two draws.

I wouldn't call them shocking either but it was a bit like bragging about beating Australia in their current state. SA fans on here were absolutely livid with the Erasmus era boks.

Erasmus wasn't the coach in 2017.

It was Allister Coetzee...

 

[Welsh Exile]

No one's being negative, they're being realistic
You're bringing up results from 4 years ago to show that Gatland's tactics vs SA are proven winners when in reality it's completely irrelevant to the current state of the sides.

3 years ago and they haven't played in 18 months so other than the WC semi what other games am I meant to bring up.

I'm quite happy talking about the semi, not like we got smashed up in that game either and was very competitive even with an extremely weak Welsh side.

 

[ncurd]

And 2018? Still terrible then were they? Beating England was easy as England are rubbish?

You mean after they changed their manager and captain that was the catalyst to them turning around and winning the world cup, we lost a series to them 2-1 in their backyard in a year most England fans agree we weren't our best by any stretch. We just finished 5th in the 6 nations!

Get some bloody context to these results.

 

[ncurd]

Erasmus wasn't the coach in 2017.

It was Allister Coetzee...

Apologies was looking at 2018 matches at the time.

 

[Welsh Exile]

You mean after they changed their manager and captain that was the catalyst to them turning around and winning the world cup, we lost a series to them 2-1 in their backyard in a year most England fans agree we weren't our best by any stretch. We just finished 5th in the 6 nations!

Get some bloody context to these results.

So it's all down to the manager now and not the shockingly bad SA players? I'm confused.

Look, fine, as I said, if you want to **** the bed and write off any chance of winning this series that's fine. I'm fairly confident. Even if you ignore everything prior to the WC and focus on the one game Gatland played against SA then there is a lot to be optimistic about but I'd suggest you get yourself down the bookies seeing as the Lions under Gatland have no chance.

 

[ncurd]

Apologies was looking at 2018 matches at the time.

Could of sworn it wikipedia was stating someone other than Erasmus for that England series was head coach. Was me trying to get names right as Olyy said though the team that played Wales before the England series was completely diffrent. That was Erasmus' first game in charge but not Kolisi first as captain (or most of the team under Erasmus).

 

[TRF_heineken]

Apologies was looking at 2018 matches at the time.

All good.

The 2018 match in Washington was Rassie's very first game in charge of the Bokke, and he went with his "b"-team at the time, while leaving his "a" team at home as they were playing the next weekend their first match against England. Plus it was outside the test window, and wasn't allowed to pick any of his NH-bound players.

 

[Welsh Exile]

All good.

The 2018 match in Washington was Rassie's very first game in charge of the Bokke, and he went with his "b"-team at the time, while leaving his "a" team at home as they were playing the next weekend their first match against England. Plus it was outside the test window, and wasn't allowed to pick any of his NH-bound players.

So he was in charge against Wales in Nov 2018?

 

[ncurd]

All good.

The 2018 match in Washington was Rassie's very first game in charge of the Bokke, and he went with his "b"-team at the time, while leaving his "a" team at home as they were playing the next weekend their first match against England. Plus it was outside the test window, and wasn't allowed to pick any of his NH-bound players.

Tis all good, important to remember actual context of matches being played rather than looking at raw results. Considering Gats record against SA outside of a Coetzee led side is less than great and that coached side had a poor record accross the board it suggests Gats might not have unlocked the way to beat boks.

As also noted were mid-way through a cycle and the boks haven't played anyone making it even less relevent looking at 4 year old results.

Its like when everyone said England would get pasted by NZ (I even wasn't hopeful) in the world cup with one match for reference in that cycle which ended up 15-16.

 

[ncurd]

So he was in charge against Wales in Nov 2018?

50% record, Gats is a genuis!