[2014 EOYT] Wales vs South Africa

[Jaguares]

15 Leigh Halfpenny
14 Alex Cuthbert
13 Jonathan Davies
12 Jamie Roberts
11 Liam Williams
10 Dan Biggar
9 Rhys Webb
8 Taulupe Faletau
7 Sam Warburton (c)
6 Dan Lydiate
5 Alun Wyn Jones
4 Jake Ball
3 Samson Lee
2 Scott Baldwin
1 Gethin Jenkins

Replacements:

16 Emyr Phillips, 17 Aaron Jarvis, 18 Rhodri Jones, 19 Luke Charteris, 20 James King, 21 Mike Phillips, 22 Rhys Priestland,
23 Scott Williams

15 Willie le Roux
14 Cornal Hendricks
13 Jan Serfontein
12 Jean de Villiers (c)
11 Lwazi Mvovo
10 Pat Lambie
9 Cobus Reinach
8 Duane Vermeulen
7 Teboho Mohoje
6 Marcell Coetzee
5 Victor Matfield
4 Eben Etzebeth
3 Coenie Oosthuizen
2 Bismarck du Plessis
1 Tendai Mtawarira

Replacements:

16 Adriaan Strauss, 17 Trevor Nyakane, 18 Julian Redelinghuys, 19 Lood de Jager, 20 Nizaam Carr, 21 Francois Hougaard,
22 Handré Pollard, 23 Damian de Allende


29 November 2014
14:30 GMT (UTC+0)

City: Cardiff
Country: Wales
Stadium: Millennium
Capacity: 74,500
Referee: John Lacey (IRE)

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

So, who are we missing this weekend. There is Habana and JJP on the wings.. Bakkies Botha has retired in any case.. him and Schalk Burger weren't played against Italy precisely for us to see if we are alright without them and I dare say we are, especially with Carr doing for the Bokke what he has been doing for WP and be that missing link between forwards and backs for Reinach's try. Steenkamp will be unavaiable which isn't a problem as I think Nyakane and Beast are better in any case. Goosen unavailable means Willie will be back at 15. So it's only really jerseys 11, 14 and 23 that will see change from the weekend. I read a comment that Senatla has been released to the Blitzbokke so if that sees him out it'd put paid to my hopes of him and Hendricks being straight swaps for Habana and JPP with De Allende coming in on the bench. My hopeful matchday 23:

1 Beast
2 Bismarck
3 Oosthuizen (held up well enough and adds a good carrying option)
4 Etzebeth
5 Matfield
6 Coetzee
7 Mohoje
8 Vermeulen
9 Reinach
10 Pollard
11 Senatla/De Allende
12 De Villiers
13 Serfontein
14 Hendricks
15 Le Roux

16 Nyakane
17 Redelinghuys
18 Strauss
19 De Jager
20 Carr
21 Hougaard
22 Lambie
23 De Allende/Mvovo

I can't help but feel we are fielding very much a B team pack. Hopefully the likes of PSdT, Alberts, A Botha, FLouw, Malherbe, MvdM all have get back to full fitness and form as I'd hate to go into a RWC play-off with this pack as is ATM. A better balanced midfield would also help but JdV is our captain or good I expect no matter what and we don't have a settled 13 and while Serfontein has filled in well he is a 12 first and foremost and at 13 he needs more of a play maker inside him. Jaque Fourie is very much a question mark as well.

 

[Jbobo]

So, who are we missing this weekend. There is Habana and JJP on the wings.. Bakkies Botha has retired in any case.. him and Schalk Burger weren't played against Italy precisely for us to see if we are alright without them and I dare say we are, especially with Carr doing for the Bokke what he has been doing for WP and be that missing link between forwards and backs for Reinach's try. Steenkamp will be unavaiable which isn't a problem as I think Nyakane and Beast are better in any case. Goosen unavailable means Willie will be back at 15. So it's only really jerseys 11, 14 and 23 that will see change from the weekend. I read a comment that Senatla has been released to the Blitzbokke so if that sees him out it'd put paid to my hopes of him and Hendricks being straight swaps for Habana and JPP with De Allende coming in on the bench. My hopeful matchday 23:

1 Beast
2 Bismarck
3 Oosthuizen (held up well enough and adds a good carrying option)
4 Etzebeth
5 Matfield
6 Coetzee
7 Mohoje
8 Vermeulen
9 Reinach
10 Pollard
11 Senatla/De Allende
12 De Villiers
13 Serfontein
14 Hendricks
15 Le Roux

16 Nyakane
17 Redelinghuys
18 Strauss
19 De Jager
20 Carr
21 Hougaard
22 Lambie
23 De Allende/Mvovo

I can't help but feel we are fielding very much a B team pack. Hopefully the likes of PSdT, Alberts, A Botha, FLouw, Malherbe, MvdM all have get back to full fitness and form as I'd hate to go into a RWC play-off with this pack as is ATM. A better balanced midfield would also help but JdV is our captain or good I expect no matter what and we don't have a settled 13 and while Serfontein has filled in well he is a 12 first and foremost and at 13 he needs more of a play maker inside him. Jaque Fourie is very much a question mark as well.

I think we may see Wales missing a few key players too, very worried about Webb and North. Phillips is a liability nowadays.

Also, i don't think you can describe a SA pack with Etzebeth, Matfield, Beast, Du Plesis and Vermeulen as a B team. Not by a long shot. Wales will be without Davies and P James, Hibbard Smith among others so we're missing just as many first team forwards but i can't describe it as a B pack. Also missing Hook and any players who play in England.

 

[Draggs]

Wales have issues at loosehead: Paul James returning to Bath, Nicky Smith suffered an injury yesterday, and Gethin Jenkins missed the last match due to injury.

 

[Jbobo]

Wales have issues at loosehead: Paul James returning to Bath, Nicky Smith suffered an injury yesterday, and Gethin Jenkins missed the last match due to injury.

Time for a Duncan Jones recall??


I'm almost serious...

 

[TRF_Cymro]

Wales have issues at loosehead: Paul James returning to Bath, Nicky Smith suffered an injury yesterday, and Gethin Jenkins missed the last match due to injury.

Likely to be two from Rob Evans, Phil John and Sam Hobbs.

 

[ENZED-88]

So, who are we missing this weekend. There is Habana and JJP on the wings.. Bakkies Botha has retired in any case.. him and Schalk Burger weren't played against Italy precisely for us to see if we are alright without them and I dare say we are, especially with Carr doing for the Bokke what he has been doing for WP and be that missing link between forwards and backs for Reinach's try. Steenkamp will be unavaiable which isn't a problem as I think Nyakane and Beast are better in any case. Goosen unavailable means Willie will be back at 15. So it's only really jerseys 11, 14 and 23 that will see change from the weekend. I read a comment that Senatla has been released to the Blitzbokke so if that sees him out it'd put paid to my hopes of him and Hendricks being straight swaps for Habana and JPP with De Allende coming in on the bench. My hopeful matchday 23:


1 Beast
2 Bismarck
3 Oosthuizen (held up well enough and adds a good carrying option)
4 Etzebeth
5 Matfield
6 Coetzee
7 Mohoje
8 Vermeulen
9 Reinach
10 Pollard
11 Senatla/De Allende
12 De Villiers
13 Serfontein
14 Hendricks
15 Le Roux

16 Nyakane
17 Redelinghuys
18 Strauss
19 De Jager
20 Carr
21 Hougaard
22 Lambie
23 De Allende/Mvovo

I can't help but feel we are fielding very much a B team pack. Hopefully the likes of PSdT, Alberts, A Botha, FLouw, Malherbe, MvdM all have get back to full fitness and form as I'd hate to go into a RWC play-off with this pack as is ATM. A better balanced midfield would also help but JdV is our captain or good I expect no matter what and we don't have a settled 13 and while Serfontein has filled in well he is a 12 first and foremost and at 13 he needs more of a play maker inside him. Jaque Fourie is very much a question mark as well.

Man that forward pack has more than enough to get the job done.

 

[Mikel92]

Yep, pretty much agree. When I look at that SA pack I wouldn't make many changes. Maybe a few to the backline sure, but the forwards set the platform, and they look pretty world-class to me. Wales will have to figure out something with their set pieces. The lineouts I wouldn't say lost them the match against the ABs, but they were God-Awful and harmed momentum severely. Yeah ... good luck having a poor lineout against a guy like Matfield. Same for the scrums. Haven't watched SA in depth on this tour, but if their scrum is awesome then Wales will have equal worries there - NZ were accumulating penalties against them quite easily it seemed.

Wales did very well against some of the All Blacks set moves like the wrap-around, and general backline attacks and that worked for 68 odd minutes. But South Africa's strength seem to be Wales' weakness, and you can bet there'll be rolling mauls close to the line, lineouts, scrums, the lot. I wouldn't even mind placing a cheeky bet on a penalty try. It'll be interesting to see which Welsh defense we get this week. The one where Kuridrani strolled through, or the one that tackled their hearts out against the ABs for most of the match.

I'd have to say the Boks for this one.

 

[Jbobo]

Yep, pretty much agree. When I look at that SA pack I wouldn't make many changes. Maybe a few to the backline sure, but the forwards set the platform, and they look pretty world-class to me. Wales will have to figure out something with their set pieces. The lineouts I wouldn't say lost them the match against the ABs, but they were God-Awful and harmed momentum severely. Yeah ... good luck having a poor lineout against a guy like Matfield. Same for the scrums. Haven't watched SA in depth on this tour, but if their scrum is awesome then Wales will have equal worries there - NZ were accumulating penalties against them quite easily it seemed.

Wales did very well against some of the All Blacks set moves like the wrap-around, and general backline attacks and that worked for 68 odd minutes. But South Africa's strength seem to be Wales' weakness, and you can bet there'll be rolling mauls close to the line, lineouts, scrums, the lot. I wouldn't even mind placing a cheeky bet on a penalty try. It'll be interesting to see which Welsh defense we get this week. The one where Kuridrani strolled through, or the one that tackled their hearts out against the ABs for most of the match.

I'd have to say the Boks for this one.

I'd agree with that, the Boks are so good at line out time, Scrum and esp the maul. Wales are notoriously bad in the line out, haven't been great in the scrum (not exactly under huge pressure, but refs seem to think so') and we cannot generally counter a Maul to save our lives. The mauls are what killed us in the last game, changed everything but still should have seen the game out.

I'm also worried that Wales have used their reserves for the campaign against NZ, we usually have a good performance in us and maybe it's been used between Aus and NZ. If we turn up like we did this week, I expect us to have parity up front and then who knows, depends on whether we are having a good attacking day and hit the ground running like last time.

Boks favorites, but gap closing i think.

 

[DuncTheDoodle]

It's too soon. Too soon after last week's game, and too soon after the summer. Not entirely over either yet...

 

[Jbobo]

I get the same feeling Doodle.

 

[Draggs]

Thought on the selections for the upcoming match...
As it is out of the window, we will be limited (as far as I know) to RRW players and George North as well as Luke Charteris (released him to RM for the first test).

Fullback will have to be Liam Williams with Halfpenny back in France. I won't bother to do any Liam v SA lines, because it's already been said over and over.
Wings are North and Cuthbert, primarily because we have no other options. Cuthbert and North look useless; North is good for Saints, so I have to assume we aren't using him correctly. Cuthbert has been dire all season, so can't pinpoint the issue. We don't do anything with them apart from keep them out wide and wait for the ball. Scrum (not the most accurate) indicated 2 metres gained for Cuthbert, 0 for North. Not wholly blaming them, but we need to use them more effectively, or what is the point in having big wings (or wings at all)?

Do we have any release clauses for Roberts or Davies? Otherwise, Scott Williams and Cory Allen are our options.

Halfbacks should be Webb and Biggar. Both were good, more positives than negatives. Biggar was tireless in defence (OK one try let through, but gutsy effort all game). Webb was great going forward, and was less erratic as compared to the Aus match.

Pack is tough. We are bare at loosehead. Best we can do is hope Jenkins recovers and perhaps call in Rob Evans. Shame about Nicky Smith, give him a few minutes and then return him to the Ospreys for weeks of rehab. Gatland called in Evans for Lions training 18 months ago, so I went with him. What is Bevington doing these days? Not that I'd consider him for a callup, but he has just fallen off the face of the earth in three years. Maybe Rhodri Jones to loosehead, and he gives them a thumping, ending his conversion? One can hope!

Hooker will be Baldwin with Phillips on the bench. We miss Ken Owens; Baldwin lacks the skill, strength, set piece ability. Phillips is a trier, but I don't see him as a long-term international option.

Lee at tighthead, and probably Rhodri riding pine.

AWJ will start, and I could see us going with Charteris: 1) Because we made a deal to allow him to play and 2) to try and steady the lineout. Harsh on Ball, but we need some jumpers.

Can't see a change from Dan, Sam, Taulupe, especially as Dan has no club calling him back. Warburton has been very good, Lydiate his usual self, and Faletau unsure of his role. Not sure if he is a modern 8, and I think he is being forced to cover for Lydiate.

15 Williams
14 Cuthbert
13 Allen
12 Williams
11 North
10 Biggar
09 Webb
01 Jenkins*
02 Baldwin
03 Lee
04 Jones
05 Charteris
06 Lydiate
07 Warburton
08 Faletau

16 Phillips
17 ?
18 Jones
19 Ball
20 Tipuric
21 Williams
22 Priestland
23 Amos?

Edit: Jbobo is correct! http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/29942381

Probably Halfpenny fullback, Roberts-Davies midfield. Wouldn't keep Phillips around. North and Cuthbert are as bad as each other at the moment, could see Williams on the wing if we make them draw straws.

 

[Jbobo]

I'm pretty sure we have all the French based players released for SA have we not? If not, we're bang in trouble.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Could Wales not put Rhodri Jones back to Loosehead (seeing as he is, you know, a loosehead...) then bring in another tighthead (Adam Jones?).

It'd be a one off thing, really, as there are so many injuries/unavailable looseheads, so Gatland and McBryde can persist with trying to turn him into a tighthead afterwards.



Also irks me that Saints only got a one-off fine for releasing North - should be a fine for every time they infringe on the agreement with PRL/RFU.

 

[TRF_heineken]

The Blitzbokke has requested the release for Seabelo Senatla, and HM has obliged. So there will be no debut for the speedster this weekend.

Here's what I hope the team would look like:

1. Trevor Nyakane
2. Bismarck Du Plessis
3. Julian Redelinghuys
4. Eben Etzebeth
5. Lood De Jager
6. Marcel Coetzee
7. Jaco Kriel
8. Nizam Carr
9. Francois Hougaard
10. Handre Pollard
11. Willie Le Roux
12. JDV
13. Jan Serfontein
14. Cornal Hendricks
15. Pat Lambie

16. Adriaan Strauss
17. Beast Mtawarira
18. Teboho Mohoje
19. Duane Vermeulen
20. Warren Whiteley
21. Cobus Reinach
22. Marnitz Boshoff
23. Damian De Allende

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

I think we may see Wales missing a few key players too, very worried about Webb and North. Phillips is a liability nowadays.

Also, i don't think you can describe a SA pack with Etzebeth, Matfield, Beast, Du Plesis and Vermeulen as a B team. Not by a long shot. Wales will be without Davies and P James, Hibbard Smith among others so we're missing just as many first team forwards but i can't describe it as a B pack. Also missing Hook and any players who play in England.

I understand Wales will be missing men as well and just to clarify I am not calling our pack a 'B' side pack since many of those guys have been starting for a while now but it's still a feeling I have; a feeling of not overly much confidence in a number of those players;

Etzebeth, Bismarck and Vermeulen are sure 1st choice players. Etzebeth hasn't been the same player this year though to be fair every game has seen him improve even if the improvements have been minor every time. Bismarck's through ins have been attrocious to say the least. Against NZ the game we lost 10-14 I felt we were in it to win if not for 3 things; Habana sent off, Bismarck's atrocious line-out through ins and of course the NZ defense being very good. 1 of those we could have helped. Matfield has been filling in. Nothing more. Beast is there on reputation/experience alone. Those two are shoring up gaps and are names alone; not contributing anythin more than making a few tackles and keeping the set piece together. The rest of the pack are testing our depth which while we are coping well enough we aren't dominating anyone in contact which is a big part of our game (the only part of our game?).

The Blitzbokke has requested the release for Seabelo Senatla, and HM has obliged. So there will be no debut for the speedster this weekend.

Here's what I hope the team would look like:

1. Trevor Nyakane
2. Bismarck Du Plessis
3. Julian Redelinghuys
4. Eben Etzebeth
5. Lood De Jager
6. Marcel Coetzee
7. Jaco Kriel
8. Nizam Carr
9. Francois Hougaard
10. Handre Pollard
11. Willie Le Roux
12. JDV
13. Jan Serfontein
14. Cornal Hendricks
15. Pat Lambie

16. Adriaan Strauss
17. Beast Mtawarira
18. Teboho Mohoje
19. Duane Vermeulen
20. Warren Whiteley
21. Cobus Reinach
22. Marnitz Boshoff
23. Damian De Allende

Might as well take a couple of chances on rookie/form players rather than count on reputation/names I agree. I'd have Le Roux at 15 though with De Allende and Hendricks our wings and Mvovo on the bench. If I thought he could be touched at all I'd drop JdV and have 12 De Allende/13 Serfontein with Mvovo on the other wing as I think JdV and Serfontein are too similar players and we have no danger in the mid field since these two are too predictable ITO play making and not making breaks ala Kuridrani. Without Le Roux coming in we are clueless on attack and Le Roux is too mercurial to rely on him 100% for creating space for our wings and Serfontein.


I just want us to take our 3 points every time we et the opportunity and put some points on the board early to make Wales chase and hope we manage to keep up the intensity in the 2nd half; I don't want to rely on Wales' mental complexes for another win as I think trusting luck will only get you home so many times. My nerves don't like it.

 

[DuncTheDoodle]

We should release Philips back, but not to Racing Metro. We should chuck him under a Racing Motor.

 

[sharkfan]

It will be another closely contested game with only a penalty or try from the Boks seperating the sides.

 

[The Jones Boy]

Wales are a good side, Gatland went too defensive against the AB's.

 

[TRF_heineken]

Jannie Du Plessis has not been cleared for this match, and will not feature. That means that either Coenie or Julian will start.